Currency Hedger No Comments

New Zealand Dollar remains depressed against firmer USD; hawkish RBNZ limits losses

  • NZD/USD attracts some sellers for the second straight day amid a modest USD strength.
  • Geopolitical uncertainties and rising Fed rate hike bets offer some support to the buck.
  • The RBNZ’s abrupt hawkish shift could act as a tailwind for the NZD and help limit losses.

The NZD/USD pair trades with a negative bias for the second straight day, albeit it lacks bearish conviction and holds above the previous day’s swing low. Spot prices currently trade near the 0.5925-0.5920 region, down around 0.15% for the day on the back of a modest US Dollar (USD) strength.

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, looks to build on the previous day’s gains amid the uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks and hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. In fact, US President Donald Trump asserted that peace talks were ongoing with Iran, and said that he will have an agreement to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the next week. Iran, however, warned that it would suspend negotiations following fresh US strikes and an Israeli military operation in Lebanon.

This keeps geopolitical risk premium in play and acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD. Meanwhile, renewed tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel concerns over inflation and expectations that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are assigning over a 50% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates by at least 25 basis points (bps) at the December policy meeting. This turns out to be another factor underpinning the USD and exerting pressure on the NZD/USD pair.

The downside, however, seems limited in the wake of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) abrupt hawkish shift. The central bank’s forecast strongly projects a 25 bps rate increase at the upcoming July 8 meeting and indicated that the OCR could reach roughly 2.85% by the end of this year, implying up to three rate hikes. This might continue to lend some support to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the NZD/USD pair, warranting caution before positioning for any further losses.

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.21%0.04%0.21%0.34%0.22%0.80%0.74%
EUR-0.21%-0.17%0.02%0.13%0.01%0.62%0.54%
GBP-0.04%0.17%0.21%0.30%0.17%0.79%0.69%
JPY-0.21%-0.02%-0.21%0.15%0.05%0.60%0.52%
CAD-0.34%-0.13%-0.30%-0.15%-0.13%0.45%0.39%
AUD-0.22%-0.01%-0.17%-0.05%0.13%0.61%0.53%
NZD-0.80%-0.62%-0.79%-0.60%-0.45%-0.61%-0.10%
CHF-0.74%-0.54%-0.69%-0.52%-0.39%-0.53%0.10%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

Swiss Franc remains calm ahead of Trade Balance data

  • USD/CHF stabilizes as the US Dollar gains safe-haven support following reports that Iran halted indirect negotiations with America.
  • The Greenback rose as renewed Middle East tensions fueled inflation fears and expectations of elevated Federal Reserve interest rates.
  • Despite a minor GDP miss, Swiss consumer and industrial activity demonstrated remarkable resilience.

USD/CHF moves little after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7870 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair steadies as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm on increased safe-haven demand after Tasnim news agency indicated that Tehran has halted indirect negotiations with the United States. Traders await the Swiss Trade Balance data release due later in the day.

According to the report, Iran and its “Resistance Front” allies, spanning Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq, have established an agenda to completely block the critical Strait of Hormuz and activate additional fronts, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as a means to punish Israel and its supporters.

The escalation was further compounded by an Axios report on X stating that Iran deployed additional naval mines in the strait last week. These combined developments pose a severe obstacle to a swift resolution of the crisis, which has already effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

Renewed tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel global inflation concerns and stoke expectations of elevated Federal Reserve (Fed) policy rates. Reflecting these persistent inflationary pressures, financial markets are now pricing in a potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike before the year ends, with the CME FedWatch tool currently indicating a 39% probability of a quarter-point increase in December.

On Monday, recent economic data from Switzerland presented a mixed but generally strong picture of the country’s financial health. On the growth front, Switzerland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to March, falling slightly short of initial market estimates that had predicted a 0.5% expansion.

Despite the minor GDP miss, consumer and industrial activity showed remarkable resilience. Retail sales in Switzerland surged by 1.6% year-on-year in April 2026, far exceeding market expectations for a modest 0.2% rise and following an upwardly revised 1% gain in the previous month.

Compounding this positive momentum, the country’s industrial sector saw a significant boost as the procure.ch–UBS Manufacturing PMI jumped to 57.3 in May 2026 from 54.5 in April. This reading easily beat the market forecast of 54, marking the highest level of manufacturing expansion Switzerland has seen since July 2022.

Currency Hedger No Comments

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Strengthens above 114.00, bullish bias holds above key technical support

  • AUD/JPY gathers strength to near 114.35 in Tuesday’s early European session.
  • The constructive outlook for the cross prevails above the key 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 114.75; the initial support level is seen at 113.85. 

The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 114.35 during the early European session on Tuesday. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the Middle East ceasefire amid mixed signals from US President Donald Trump. 

Trump stated early Tuesday that he believes an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire with Iran is reachable “over the next week.” On Monday, US President shrugged off the possible collapse of peace negotiations with Iran, saying, “I don’t care if they’re over, honestly.” 

The likelihood of stronger verbal intervention from Japanese authorities might help limit the Japanese Yen’s (JPY) losses. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday the officials stood ready to respond in the currency market as needed and refrained from commenting on recent exchange-rate moves.

The speech by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda will be the highlight later on Wednesday. Ueda could offer some hints as to whether the central bank will proceed with a rate increase the following week.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a bullish near-term bias as spot remains well above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. Price is pressing the upper side of the recent consolidation, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 57.46 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, suggesting buyers still retain control but with reduced momentum compared to the prior peak.

On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the Bollinger upper band at 114.75, and a daily close above this barrier would open the way for a continuation of the broader uptrend. On the downside, initial support emerges at the Bollinger middle band around 113.85, ahead of the lower band at 112.98, with the 100-day SMA at 111.30 acting as a deeper structural floor that would need to give way to materially challenge the prevailing bullish structure.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Offshore Yuan Remains at Multi-Year High

The offshore yuan strengthened to around 6.76 per dollar on Tuesday, holding near its strongest level since February 2023, as investors increasingly regarded Chinese assets as a relative safe haven amid heightened geopolitical tensions involving Iran. Geopolitical uncertainty persisted after the latest developments indicated that Iran had suspended indirect talks with Washington over Israel’s military operations in Lebanon, even as US President Trump asserted that negotiations remained ongoing. China’s diversified energy supply base and comparatively limited direct exposure to the Middle East have reinforced the attractiveness of its financial markets during the conflict, underpinning the yuan’s resilience. However, further upside in the yuan may be capped by Beijing’s preference for exchange-rate stability, as reflected in the People’s Bank of China’s continued weaker-than-expected daily fixings, as well as potential dollar-buying interventions by major state-owned banks.

Currency Hedger No Comments

NZD/USD – Kiwi corrects lower and tests support at 0.5965

  • NZD/USD pulls back to 0.5965 after rejection at the 0.6000 area.
  • Fresh US-Iran hostilities are casting doubt about a fragile ceasefire.
  • Upbeat manufacturing data from China provided some support to the NZD.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds marginal losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, retreating to session lows of 0.5965 from highs a few pips below 0.6000. Manufacturing data from China has been supportive, although the skirmishes between the US and Iran are feeding a certain degree of cautiousness at the week’s opening.

The US military reported a new wave of airstrikes on Iran’s military sites, and Tehran said that they targeted a US base that was used to launch attacks on the country. US President Donald Trump keeps pondering whether to sign a ceasefire extension or not, and meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, keeping Oil near $100 and straining New Zealand’s Oil-importing economy.

Technical Analysis: On a bearish correction, amid a broader bullish trend

Chart Analysis NZD/USD


NZD/USD trades at 0.5971, with price action suggesting that the pair might be on the fourth wave of a 5-wave (Elliott Wave) bullish cycle. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 68, after pulling back from heavily overbought levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, all in all suggesting that pullbacks are likely to find buyers.

Immediate resistance is located at the 0.5995 session high, ahead of the February 26 high, near 0.6015. Further up, the area between the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of last week’s rally, at 0.6036, and the mid-February highs around 0.6050 looks like a plausible target for a potential fifth wave.

A break below 0.5965, on the contrary, would expose the May 27 high, near 0.5915. Below here, the May 28 low, near 0.5865, would come next

New Zealand Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.05%-0.08%0.14%0.04%0.01%0.30%0.23%
EUR-0.05%-0.11%0.07%-0.01%0.03%0.27%0.17%
GBP0.08%0.11%0.19%0.10%0.07%0.35%0.27%
JPY-0.14%-0.07%-0.19%-0.08%-0.10%0.19%0.09%
CAD-0.04%0.00%-0.10%0.08%-0.03%0.26%0.18%
AUD-0.01%-0.03%-0.07%0.10%0.03%0.23%0.19%
NZD-0.30%-0.27%-0.35%-0.19%-0.26%-0.23%-0.08%
CHF-0.23%-0.17%-0.27%-0.09%-0.18%-0.19%0.08%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Yen languishes amid growing BoJ rate hike uncertainty

  • USD/JPY rises to near 159.45 as BoJ rate hike uncertainty weakens Japanese Yen.
  • The BoJ SoP of the April meeting showed that most policymakers expressed the need to raise interest rates in the near term.
  • Investors await the US NFP data for fresh cues on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.

The USD/JPY pair trades 0.12% higher at around 159.45 during the early European trading session on Monday. The pair gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) broadly underperforms amid uncertainty regarding whether the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates in the policy meeting on June 16.

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the British Pound.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.05%-0.10%0.13%0.07%-0.07%0.28%0.21%
EUR-0.05%-0.14%0.04%0.02%-0.07%0.24%0.14%
GBP0.10%0.14%0.19%0.15%0.02%0.38%0.27%
JPY-0.13%-0.04%-0.19%-0.03%-0.18%0.18%0.08%
CAD-0.07%-0.02%-0.15%0.03%-0.15%0.21%0.12%
AUD0.07%0.07%-0.02%0.18%0.15%0.30%0.25%
NZD-0.28%-0.24%-0.38%-0.18%-0.21%-0.30%-0.09%
CHF-0.21%-0.14%-0.27%-0.08%-0.12%-0.25%0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Higher oil prices due to the Middle East crisis-led energy supply shock have raised uncertainty over the Japan’s economic outlook.

Former BoJ Deputy Governor and current member of Japan’s Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, Masazumi Wakatabe, said last week said in a meeting that it is important to understand whether the economy can withstand tighter monetary conditions, Reuters reported.

However, the BoJ Summary of Opinions (SoP) of the April policy meeting showed that a majority of policymakers supported an interest rate hike in the near term, while warning of high inflation risks.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades slightly higher at the start of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data week. Investors will closely monitor the data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. In Monday’s session, investors will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for May, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY trades higher at around 159.45 at press time. The pair maintains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 158.84, keeping the recent uptrend structure intact.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 58 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, which suggests buyers still retain the initiative while upside momentum is steady rather than stretched.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA near 158.84, where a daily close below would hint at a deeper corrective phase and expose lower levels on the chart towards 158.00. On the upside, the pair could advance towards an almost two-year high of 160.73 if it manages to decisively break above the May 28 high at 159.65.

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Edges lower from upper descending channel top around 186.00

  • EUR/JPY may retest the upper boundary of the descending channel around 186.00.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index of 57 suggests upward momentum should persist.
  • The primary support appears at the nine-day EMA at 185.33.

EUR/JPY steadies after six days of gains, trading around 185.70 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross is maintaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The alignment of price over short- and medium-term moving averages hints at sustained underlying demand, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 57 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, suggesting upside pressure could persist as long as these floors remain intact.

The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the EUR/JPY cross is positioned near the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern around 186.00. The sustained break above the channel would indicate bullish confirmation. Further advance would support the EUR/JPY cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, recorded on April 17.

On the downside, the primary support lies at the nine-day EMA at 185.33, followed by the 50-day EMA of 184.98. A break below moving averages would revive the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the three-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by nearly six-month low of 180.81, reached on February 12.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the British Pound.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.10%-0.04%0.13%0.08%-0.02%0.31%0.28%
EUR-0.10%-0.12%0.00%-0.02%-0.07%0.23%0.16%
GBP0.04%0.12%0.15%0.10%-0.02%0.33%0.27%
JPY-0.13%0.00%-0.15%-0.03%-0.13%0.21%0.14%
CAD-0.08%0.02%-0.10%0.03%-0.11%0.23%0.18%
AUD0.02%0.07%0.02%0.13%0.11%0.28%0.27%
NZD-0.31%-0.23%-0.33%-0.21%-0.23%-0.28%-0.05%
CHF-0.28%-0.16%-0.27%-0.14%-0.18%-0.27%0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

CAD weakens as firmer USD counter recovering Oil prices

  • USD/CAD gains positive traction for the second straight day amid a pickup in the USD demand.
  • Geopolitical uncertainty and hawkish Fed bets continue to act as a tailwind for the Greenback.
  • Rebounding Oil prices offset dismal Canadian GDP, underpinning the Loonie and capping gains.

The USD/CAD pair attracts some buyers for the second consecutive day and reclaims the 1.3800 mark during the Asian session on Monday. Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction and remain below the highest level since April 13, near the 1.3870 region, touched last week amid a combination of diverging forces.

The uncertainty over US-Iran talks to end a three-month-old conflict and Israel’s incursion into Lebanon keeps geopolitical risk in play, underpinning the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. In fact, differences over Iran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz continue to complicate efforts to reach a deal. Moreover, Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, stated that the country will not accept any agreement until its national rights are fully secured.

Adding to this, reports suggest that the US has hardened its negotiating position with Iran. This, along with bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates by the end of this year, assists the USD to build on Friday’s modest bounce from a two-week low. The Canadian Dollar (CAD), on the other hand, is undermined by dismal domestic GDP figures, which showed that the economy contracted at 0.1% annualized pace in the first quarter of 2026, and further supports the USD/CAD pair.

Meanwhile, the latest development surrounding the Middle East crisis triggers a goodish recovery in Crude Oil prices, from over a one-month low touched on Friday. This, in turn, helps limit the downside for the commodity-linked Loonie and might keep a lid on any further appreciating move for the USD/CAD pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for the resumption of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past month or so.