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EUR/JPY Flat lines above 187.00; bullish bias persists amid weaker JPY

  • EUR/JPY consolidates in a range on Tuesday amid a combination of diverging forces.
  • Economic concerns due to the Hormuz risks undermine the JPY and support the cross.
  • Intervention fears and hawkish BoJ bets limit JPY losses, capping gains for spot prices.

The EUR/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s goodish rebound from the 186.25 area, or a one-week low, and oscillates in a narrow range during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 187.20-187.25 region, nearly unchanged for the day, and remain well within the striking distance of the highest level since August 1990, touched last Friday.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens slightly in reaction to a Reuters report that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is increasingly likely to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming April meeting. This comes on top of economic concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict and the risk to energy supplies due to continued disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the EUR/JPY cross.

The BoJ, however, is expected to signal readiness to hike in June as imported energy costs cloud the inflation picture. Moreover, speculations that Japanese authorities would step in to stem further weakness in the domestic currency hold back the JPY bears from placing aggressive bets. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick is seen weighing on the shared currency, which contributes to capping the upside for the EUR/JPY cross.

The recent breakout above the 185.00 psychological mark comes on top of repeated rebounds from the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and favors the EUR/JPY bulls. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is in positive territory, and its histogram is still constructive. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 64, hinting at strong but not yet extreme buying pressure.

Meanwhile, initial support is reinforced by the 100-day EMA near 183.04, where a deeper pullback would be expected to attract dip-buying interest while the broader bullish structure remains intact. Unless the EUR/JPY cross slides back through this floor, the technical setup suggests that spot prices remain positioned to extend gains, with any consolidation above the moving average likely to be viewed as a pause within the prevailing uptrend rather than a trend reversal.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/JPY daily chart

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
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GBP/USD – Falls toward 1.3500 near nine-day EMA support

  • GBP/USD may find the primary barrier at the two-month high of 1.3599.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 59 remains positive, without indicating overbought conditions.
  • The immediate support lies at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3500.

GBP/USD inches lower after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around 1.3520 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing bullish bias, as the pair moves within the ascending channel pattern.

The GBP/USD pair trades with a mildly bullish near-term bias, holding above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The short-term EMA trading above the longer one hints at constructive momentum.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 59 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, suggesting room for further gains as long as the pair remains supported on dips.

The initial barrier lies at the two-month high of 1.3599, recorded on April 17, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3750. A break above the channel would reinforce the bullish bias and support the GBP/USD pair to approach the 1.3869, the highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27.

On the downside, the GBP/USD pair may find its immediate support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3500, followed by the nine-day EMA at 1.3493. Further declines below this confluence support zone would put downward pressure on the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.3423. A sustained break below the medium-term average would expose a nearly five-month low of 1.3159, recorded on March 31, followed by the 1.3010, the lowest since April 2025, which was recorded in November 2025.

GBP/USD: Daily Chart

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.09%0.10%0.06%0.00%0.10%-0.32%0.08%
EUR-0.09%0.02%-0.02%-0.09%0.04%-0.41%0.00%
GBP-0.10%-0.02%-0.02%-0.10%0.00%-0.43%-0.01%
JPY-0.06%0.02%0.02%-0.05%0.02%-0.43%0.00%
CAD-0.00%0.09%0.10%0.05%0.08%-0.36%0.07%
AUD-0.10%-0.04%-0.01%-0.02%-0.08%-0.44%-0.01%
NZD0.32%0.41%0.43%0.43%0.36%0.44%0.43%
CHF-0.08%-0.00%0.01%-0.01%-0.07%0.00%-0.43%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

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USD/CHF – US Dollar bulls remain capped below 0.7845

  • USD/CHF bounces up from 0.7775 but remains capped below 0.7845.
  • Markets have turned cautious as the US-Iran peace talks wobble.
  • The pair maintains its bearish trend from late-March highs intact.

The US Dollar (USD) bounced up from 0.7775 lows against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday, but the ensuing recovery attempts have remained below the 0.7845 level on Monday, which leaves the immediate bearish trend in play.

Market sentiment has turned cautious on Monday, as hopes of a swift end to the Middle East war wane, which is providing marginal support to the US Dollar. Iranian authorities are threatening to skip the second round of peace talks scheduled for Tuesday after the US seized an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday

Investors, nevertheless, remain faithful that these moves are part of a complex process, and that Washington and Tehran will redress the situation and return to the negotiating table this week. This is keeping most US Dollar pairs at levels relatively close to last week’s peaks.

Technical Analysis: Treading water around $0.7800

USD/CHF Chart Analysis

The USD/CHF reversal from the 0.8050 area in late March has found support on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, drawn from the January 27 low to the March 31 high, near 0.7775, but the near-term bias remains negative, as upside attempts remain capped below the 0.7845 area.

Technical indicators in the 4-hour chart are mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced out of oversold territory toward the low-40s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line hovers marginally above zero with a shallow positive profile, which only hints at fading downside pressure rather than a decisive turn higher.

The pair should breach the mentioned 0.7845 level (April 16 high), to set its focus on the April 8 and 10 highs, at the 0.7930 area, and the descending trendline, now around 0.7950. On the downside, below the mentioned 0.7775, the next target is the area between 78.2% retracement, at 0.7700, and the February 27 low, at 0.7670.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.02%0.02%0.22%0.00%0.23%0.11%-0.03%
EUR0.02%0.03%0.21%0.00%0.24%0.12%-0.03%
GBP-0.02%-0.03%0.19%-0.01%0.20%0.09%-0.07%
JPY-0.22%-0.21%-0.19%-0.18%0.03%-0.13%-0.24%
CAD-0.01%-0.00%0.00%0.18%0.21%0.07%-0.05%
AUD-0.23%-0.24%-0.20%-0.03%-0.21%-0.11%-0.27%
NZD-0.11%-0.12%-0.09%0.13%-0.07%0.11%-0.15%
CHF0.03%0.03%0.07%0.24%0.05%0.27%0.15%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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USD/INR jumps higher as Oil price recovery batters Indian Rupee

  • The Indian Rupee declines against the US Dollar amid renewed uncertainty over the US-Iran permanent ceasefire.
  • A sharp recovery in the Oil price has dragged the Indian Rupee.
  • Iran refuses to resume negotiations with the US due to its excessive demands.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR jumps to near 93.00 as renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran have lifted the oil prices and offered support to the US Dollar (USD).

Hormuz closure boosts oil prices

WTI Oil prices trade over 3.5% higher to near $88.00 in the Asian trade on Monday. The Oil price strengthens as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, again, as retaliation for the continued US blockade of Iranian sea ports and Washington’s attack on one of Iran’s commercial ships.

On Friday, Iran announced a temporary reopening of the Hormuz after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.

Meanwhile, US President Trump has reiterated threats to obliterate every power plant and bridge in Iran, through a post on Truth Social, if the nation doesn’t take a deal soon.

US Dollar gains on renewed US-Iran tensions

Heightened uncertainty surrounding the occurrence of another round of talks between the US and Iran has improved the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 98.35.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.11%0.20%0.24%0.04%0.35%0.29%0.16%
EUR-0.11%0.09%0.09%-0.08%0.23%0.19%0.04%
GBP-0.20%-0.09%0.00%-0.16%0.14%0.10%-0.06%
JPY-0.24%-0.09%0.00%-0.15%0.14%0.05%-0.06%
CAD-0.04%0.08%0.16%0.15%0.29%0.22%0.10%
AUD-0.35%-0.23%-0.14%-0.14%-0.29%-0.05%-0.17%
NZD-0.29%-0.19%-0.10%-0.05%-0.22%0.05%-0.14%
CHF-0.16%-0.04%0.06%0.06%-0.10%0.17%0.14%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Tehran has refused to return to the table to resume negotiations over the permanent ceasefire with the US due to its “excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade”, according to the Iranian Republic News Agency (IRNA).

FIIs continue raising stake in Indian stock market

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net buyers in the last three trading days in the Indian stock market, and have raised their stake worth Rs. 1,731.71 crore. The sentiment of foreign investors toward the Indian equity market has improved since the announcement of the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which will expire on April 22.

Overseas investors were not gung-ho on Indian equities since the announcement; however, the pace of selling reduced initially, and eventually they started turning out to be net buyers.

On the data front, investors await the US Retail Sales data for March, which will be released on Tuesday. The US Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, is estimated to have risen at a strong pace of 1.3% on a monthly basis, against a 0.6% growth seen in February.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR recovers above 20-day EMA

USD/INR recovers its Friday’s losses and rises further to near 93.25 on Monday, resulting in an improvement in the near-term outlook, as it reclaims the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 93.05.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to oscillate in the 40.00-60.00 zone, hinting at waning upside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

On the upside, the pair could recover further towards 94.00 if it manages a sustained move above the 20-day EMA. Looking down, the January 28 high at around 92.28 is the key support level; a close below 92.28 would expose the spot to the March 5 low at 91.40.

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Today Markets – Forecasting The Upcoming Week

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is losing momentum near 98.00 as safe-haven demand fades on the reopening news, but downside remains limited amid lingering geopolitical risks.

Markets are experiencing fluctuations between relief and renewed caution as developments around the Strait of Hormuz continue to evolve. Earlier reports confirmed that this vital Oil chokepoint is “fully open and ready for full passage,” alleviating fears about prolonged supply disruptions.

However, new developments are complicating the situation. Reports suggest that Iran may consider closing the Strait of Hormuz again if the United States maintains its naval blockade, warning that such an action would be viewed as a violation of the ceasefire.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.09%-0.17%-0.59%-0.23%-0.31%-0.16%-0.49%
EUR0.09%-0.08%-0.52%-0.15%-0.22%-0.08%-0.42%
GBP0.17%0.08%-0.45%-0.07%-0.14%0.01%-0.32%
JPY0.59%0.52%0.45%0.37%0.28%0.42%0.09%
CAD0.23%0.15%0.07%-0.37%-0.08%0.05%-0.26%
AUD0.31%0.22%0.14%-0.28%0.08%0.15%-0.19%
NZD0.16%0.08%-0.01%-0.42%-0.05%-0.15%-0.34%
CHF0.49%0.42%0.32%-0.09%0.26%0.19%0.34%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

EUR/USD is pushing higher toward the 1.1790 region, benefiting from the softer USD tone, although gains remain capped by cautious sentiment and mixed Eurozone data.

GBP/USD is also advancing near the 1.3550 level, supported by improved risk appetite as the pair attempts to recover recent losses amid a reassessment of global risks.

USD/JPY fell near the 158.20 price zone as the Japanese Yen (JPY) finds some support from residual safe-haven demand.

AUD/USD was one of the top performers earlier in the day, rallying sharply toward the 0.7200 region but later easing to near the 0.7180 price zone. Oil shock fears and improved global sentiment favor commodity-linked currencies.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil sharply declined to near the $83.00 per barrel, lower after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as supply concerns ease and risk premiums unwind. Still, prices remain vulnerable to sudden spikes if geopolitical tensions resurface.

Gold surged toward $4,865, even after safe-haven demand weakened amid ongoing uncertainty and the risk of renewed escalation in the Middle East.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

Tuesday, April 21:

  • ECB’s Nagel speech
  • ECB’s De Guindos speech
  • Fed’s Waller speech

Wednesday, April 22:

  • ECB’s Elderson speech
  • ECB’s Lane speech
  • BoE’s Breeden speech
  • ECB’s Lane speech
  • ECB’s Cipollone speech
  • ECB’s Sleijpen speech
  • ECB’s Nagel speech
  • ECB’s President Lagarde speech

Thursday, April 23:

  • ECB’s Nagel speech

Friday, April 24:

  • SNB Chairman Schlegel’s speech

Central banks’ meetings and upcoming data releases to shape

Monday, April 20:

  • China PBoC Interest Rate Decision
  • Germany PPI March
  • Canada CPIs
  • Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey
  • New Zealand Business Confidence Q1
  • New Zealand CPI Q1

Tuesday, April 21:

  • United Kingdom Labor Market Data
  • Germany ZEW Survey April
  • Eurozone ZEW Survey April
  • United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average
  • United States Retail Sales March
  • United States Pending Home Sales March
  • Japan Trade Balance March
  • Japan Exports March
  • Japan Imports March

Wednesday, April 22:

  • United Kingdom Inflation Data March
  • Eurozone Consumer Confidence April Prel
  • Australia S&P Global PMIs April Prel

Thursday, April 23:

  • Eurozone ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting
  • France HCOB PMIs April Prel
  • Germany HCOB PMIs April Prel
  • Eurozone HCOB PMIs April Prel
  • United Kingdom S&P Global PMIs April Prel
  • United States Initial Jobless Claims
  • United States S&P Global PMIs April Prel
  • United States New Home Sales March
  • United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence April
  • Japan Inflation Data March

Friday, April 24:

  • United Kingdom Retail Sales March
  • Germany IFO Survey April
  • Canada Retail Sales February
  • United States Michigan Data April
  • United States Inflation Expectations April
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USD/JPY slides as Iran reopens Hormuz, WTI plunges and USD weakens

  • USD/JPY edges lower as softer USD and falling Oil prices support the Yen.
  • WTI plunges over 10% after Hormuz reopening, easing inflation concerns.
  • Technically, USD/JPY trades below the 20-day SMA, keeping the near-term bias bearish.

USD/JPY edges lower on Friday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against a softer US Dollar (USD), with easing Oil prices providing additional support, given Japan’s heavy reliance on imported energy. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 158.18, down 0.61% on the day.

Despite the decline, the pair remains largely range-bound within a one-month range between 157.50 and 160.50 and is on track for a third consecutive weekly decline, mirroring moves in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies. The index remains under pressure amid improving market sentiment surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal.

Crude prices plunged more than 10% after Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a statement on X that, in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait has been declared open for the remaining period of the truce, with transit taking place along coordinated routes set by Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organisation.

The sharp drop in Oil prices is easing immediate inflation risks, reviving expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, while reinforcing the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) gradual policy normalization path.

Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor developments around US–Iran talks over the weekend, with markets watching for signs of a lasting peace deal. However, unresolved differences, particularly over nuclear issues, could keep uncertainty elevated.

In the daily chart, USD/JPY holds a bearish near-term bias as spot sits below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) component of the Bollinger Bands at 159.20 while only marginally above the lower band support at 158.15. This configuration suggests the recent pullback is not yet resolved, with the pair trading in the lower half of its volatility envelope; a sub-50 Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 and a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading around -0.20 both hint that downside momentum still outweighs buying interest.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger SMA midline near 159.20, with a stronger cap emerging at the upper band around 160.25, where renewed selling pressure could reappear if the pair attempts a rebound. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the lower Bollinger Band near 158.15; a daily close below this level would expose deeper losses toward prior price floors, whereas holding above it would keep the pair confined to a corrective consolidation within the broader uptrend.

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.12%-0.19%-0.62%-0.20%-0.28%-0.16%-0.51%
EUR0.12%-0.07%-0.52%-0.09%-0.17%-0.05%-0.41%
GBP0.19%0.07%-0.45%-0.02%-0.10%0.02%-0.33%
JPY0.62%0.52%0.45%0.44%0.35%0.46%0.12%
CAD0.20%0.09%0.02%-0.44%-0.08%0.02%-0.31%
AUD0.28%0.17%0.10%-0.35%0.08%0.12%-0.23%
NZD0.16%0.05%-0.02%-0.46%-0.02%-0.12%-0.35%
CHF0.51%0.41%0.33%-0.12%0.31%0.23%0.35%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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USD/CHF Price Forecast: Breaks below key SMAs, eyes on 0.7800

  • USD/CHF falls below all major SMAs, confirming bearish structure shift.
  • RSI in bearish territory reflects strong selling pressure since April.
  • Break below 0.7800 exposes 0.7775 and 0.7748 support levels.

USD/CHF finishes the week on a lower note, down 0.87% for the week and 0.27% in the day, as markets turn optimistic about a possible US-Iran deal over the weekend. In the meantime, the technical picture remains bearish, as the pair tumbled below key moving averages, hitting a five-week low at 0.7775.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The daily chart shows the pair ended the day below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7825—the last of a group of four that included the 20-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs —, opening the door for further downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also in bearish territory, indicating that bears have been aggressive since April 9, when the index pierced below its 50-neutral level.

For a bearish continuation, the USD/CHF must clear key support at 0.7800. A breach of the latter will expose a key support trendline around 0.7775/80, followed by the March 10 daily low at 0.7748. Fresh buying interest is seen at 0.7700.

On the other hand, a break of resistance at the 50-day SMA would expose the 100-day SMA at 0.7871, ahead of the 20-day SMA at 0.7909. Overhead lies the 200-day SMA at 0.7937.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

USD/CHF daily chart

Swiss Franc Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.78%-0.92%-0.59%-1.23%-2.48%-1.43%-1.14%
EUR0.78%-0.15%0.17%-0.43%-1.65%-0.66%-0.34%
GBP0.92%0.15%0.26%-0.30%-1.50%-0.51%-0.18%
JPY0.59%-0.17%-0.26%-0.66%-1.84%-0.74%-0.57%
CAD1.23%0.43%0.30%0.66%-1.10%-0.09%0.11%
AUD2.48%1.65%1.50%1.84%1.10%1.06%1.27%
NZD1.43%0.66%0.51%0.74%0.09%-1.06%0.31%
CHF1.14%0.34%0.18%0.57%-0.11%-1.27%-0.31%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

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USD/CHF – Bearish Flag formation warrants more downside below 0.7790

  • USD/CHF rises to near 0.7825 as Iran truce optimism has diminished the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand.
  • US President Trump has stated multiple times that Washington is close to reaching a deal with Iran.
  • The Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates this year.

The USD/CHF pair trades 0.15% lower at around 0.7825 during the European trading session on Friday. The Swiss Franc pair faces selling pressure as optimism towards a permanent ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran has diminished the appeal of safe-haven assets.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 98.08. The DXY is close to its over six-week low of 97.83 posted on Thursday.

The hopes of an Iran truce remain firm as US President Donald Trump has stated multiple times that Tehran is eager to reach a deal soon. On Thursday, Trump said in a press briefing, “We’re very close to a deal with Iran,” while warning that military actions against Tehran would resume if a deal is not closed. Trump added that Iran is willing to give up its enriched uranium and surrender its plans to pursue nuclear ambitions.

On the domestic front, traders have completely pared hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) for the year, as capped oil prices due to Iran truce optimism have again anchored inflation expectations globally.

USD/CHF technical analysis

USD/CHF trades lower at around 0.7825 as of writing, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7883. On the daily chart, the pair exhibits a Bearish Flag formation, which warrants the continuation of the downside trend after a period of consolidation.

The Relative Strength Index (14) at around 42 leans to the weak side and hints that rebounds may continue to struggle beneath overhead supply.

On the downside, the channel bottom around 0.7798 is the first line of support, and a clear move below that floor would expose a deeper retracement within the broader bearish structure defined by the longer-term downward trend line towards the March 10 low of 0.7748, followed by the February 23 low of 0.7710.

Looking up, initial resistance emerges at the channel top near 0.7850, followed by the 20-period EMA at 0.7883; a sustained break above these levels would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and extend the recovery towards the April 13 high of 0.7934.