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GBPUSD up 0.1% after better-than-expected UK GDP data

08:00 AM, United Kingdom, monthly GDP report:

  • UK GDP Estimate YoY Actual 1.3% (Forecast 1.2%, Previous 1.2%)
  • UK GDP Estimate MoM Actual 0.1% (Forecast 0%, Previous -0.1%)
  • UK Manufacturing Production MoM Actual 0.1% (Forecast -0.2%, Previous 0.4%)

The UK economy continues its steady, post-recession expansion, marking its sixth consecutive month of rolling three-month growth. While the broader trend remains highly positive, momentum slowed slightly heading into the summer, influenced by global supply chain disruptions stemming from the geopolitical conflict in Iran. Figure 1: Contributions to three-month GDP growth, UK, May 2025 to May 2026

Source: Gross domestic product (GDP) monthly estimate from the Office for National Statistics Key Performance & Sector Breakdown

  • Overall GDP: Grew 0.7% in the three months to May 2026 (down slightly from 0.8% in April), but managed a modest 0.1% tick-up in the month of May itself.
  • Services (The Growth Engine) : Grew 0.7% in the three months to May. Growth was powered by Information & Communication (up 2.5%) and professional services—specifically scientific R&D (up 5.1% in May), driven by medical sciences.
  • Production & Manufacturing: Rose 0.1% over the three months. Manufacturing was the standout sub-sector (up 1.6%), led by pharmaceuticals. However, this was weighed down by sharp declines in energy and water utilities.
  • Construction: Grew 1.6% over the three months, buoyed by private commercial projects. However, it contracted 0.8% in May, dragged down by a 5% drop in private housing repair and maintenance.

The pound reacted positively to the reading, though it wasn’t able to break out of the current range between 1,3520 and 1,3550. GBPUSD is tradining closely to the 10-hour exponential moving average (EMA10 on an H1 chart; yellow), slowing down after dynamic gains thruought the yesterday’s session.

Source: xStation5

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AUD/JPY Price Declines below 113.50, while maintaining bullish near‑term structure

  • AUD/JPY softens to near 113.45 in Thursday’s early European session. 
  • The cross maintains a constructive outlook, with bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The immediate resistance level is seen at 113.70; the initial support level to watch is 112.65. 

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 113.45 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Verbal intervention from Japanese authorities provides some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). 

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that the authorities are ready to take appropriate action on currency anytime as needed. She added that the officials will track market trends and economic data to ensure fiscal sustainability.

Senior officials from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) noted that a delay in stimulus adjustment amid high inflation risk could trigger an economic downturn. However, a Reuters survey showed earlier Thursday that nearly half of Japanese firms are experiencing negative business impact from the BoJ’s interest rate hikes, with higher borrowing costs hurting bottom lines and discouraging capital investment. 

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a bullish near-term bias as price remains above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands 20-period middle band, suggesting the broader uptrend is still supported despite recent consolidation. The latest Relative Strength Index (14) reading around 57 keeps momentum on the constructive side, hinting that buyers retain control as long as the pair stays comfortably above the lower Bollinger band at 111.10.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger upper band around 113.70, where a sustained break would open the door to the May 13 high of 114.74.

On the downside, the first layer of support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 112.65, followed by the Bollinger middle band near 112.40, while a deeper pullback towards the lower band at 111.10 would be needed to seriously challenge the prevailing bullish structure.

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EUR/JPY Price Positions near ascending triangle top around 186.00

  • EUR/JPY near the 186.10 ascending triangle ceiling suggests building bullish pressure.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 56 indicates positive, sustainable upward momentum.
  • The currency cross could find the initial support at the nine-day EMA at 185.35.

EUR/JPY depreciates after three days of gains, trading around 185.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross is retaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 suggests positive but not overextended momentum, hinting that buyers still control the near-term tone.

The daily chart technical analysis shows the EUR/JPY cross positioning near the upper boundary of an ascending triangle around 186.10, suggesting that price crowding right against that flat ceiling indicates that buyers are aggressively absorbing all selling pressure at that level. This positioning shows immense bullish pressure. Since the dips are getting shallower, staying near the top suggests a breakout above resistance is likely building up.

A decisive daily close above this upper boundary typically triggers a powerful bullish continuation, which could expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, primary support lies at the nine-day EMA at 185.35, followed by the 50-day EMA at 185.05. Further declines would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the ascending triangle’s lower boundary around 184.70. A break below the triangle would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.00%0.12%-0.05%0.08%0.09%0.12%0.11%
EUR-0.00%0.11%-0.04%0.08%0.19%0.13%0.10%
GBP-0.12%-0.11%-0.15%-0.02%0.06%0.02%0.00%
JPY0.05%0.04%0.15%0.09%0.20%0.16%0.15%
CAD-0.08%-0.08%0.02%-0.09%0.10%0.07%0.05%
AUD-0.09%-0.19%-0.06%-0.20%-0.10%-0.01%-0.05%
NZD-0.12%-0.13%-0.02%-0.16%-0.07%0.01%-0.03%
CHF-0.11%-0.10%-0.01%-0.15%-0.05%0.05%0.03%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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Chart of the Day – What is next for July’s strongest currency?

The geopolitically turbulent start of July has brought a strengthening of commodity currencies (among them, the Norwegian krone). However, the top of the G10 list is occupied by the New Zealand dollar, which may come as a surprise to some. The currency has strengthened by nearly 2.5% against the dollar over the past two weeks.

What lies behind such a significant move?

Fundamental to this, as is often the case, were the actions of the central bank. On 8 July, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the main interest rate by 25 bps, lifting it to 2.5%. This was the first rate hike in New Zealand in over three years. The key, however, was not just the decision to raise rates (which was largely priced in by markets) but the communication that accompanied it.

  • The decision was made unanimously by the committee. At the previous meeting in May, there was a 3-3 split in votes, and the balance was only tipped by the new governor, Anna Breman.
  • The RBNZ Chief Economist, Paul Conway, drew clear attention to pro-inflationary risks resulting from the escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
  • The Bank stated in its communiqué that “while further interest rate hikes seem likely at upcoming meetings, their timing is highly uncertain.”
  • RBNZ research suggests that after a long period of elevated inflation, New Zealand companies are significantly more inclined to immediately pass costs on to consumers and less willing to lower prices when costs fall.

As a result, the market’s baseline scenario is another hike in September and another upward move in October or December. This would bring the main interest rate (cash rate) to 3%, which the bank currently defines as the neutral level.

What lies ahead? There is still plenty of time until September.

  • In the meantime, the Q2 inflation report will be published. The consensus assumes a significant increase in the headline indicator, most likely to around 4%.
  • After the manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level since 2021 (59.7), data on production could prove particularly interesting.

Data from China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, which absorbs nearly 25% of the country’s total exports (mainly dairy, meat, wood, and fruit), will also be significant.

  • Stronger economic data from the Middle Kingdom usually means greater demand for products imported from New Zealand.
  • In this context, the readings published today are not particularly optimistic. GDP dynamics fell to the lowest level since 2022 (+4.3% year-on-year).
  • The Asian giant is burdened by a property market crisis, weak domestic demand, and a decline in investment (down 5.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year).

The strength of the dollar itself, which is awaiting further news from the geopolitical front and the September FOMC decision, could, of course, also prove key.

  • The market does not really expect a hike, so the focus will be on communication. Kevin Warsh remains enigmatic, so upcoming conferences may attract particular attention.

Technical Analysis Figure 1: NZDUSD [D1] (08.07.2025 – 15.07.2026)

Source: xStation, 15.07.2026 The NZDUSD pair has broken out of the downtrend and is currently testing key support levels. The price has breached the 50% Fibonacci retracement and is hovering around the 150-day moving average. The upward momentum is also suggested by the MACD indicator. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 63.4, which confirms a clear advantage for market bulls, while at the same time indicating that the market is not yet in the extreme overbought zone (above 70).

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AUD/JPY Price Gains traction above 113.00, bullish trend stays firm above 100-day SMA

  • AUD/JPY gains ground to near 113.25 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
  • The cross keeps a bullish vibe above the 100-day SMA, with RSI holding above the midline. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 113.55; the initial support level is seen at  112.65.

The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 113.25 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after reports regarding the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF).

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that the government is considering nudging the world’s largest pension fund to buy domestic financial assets to support the currency, though concrete plans have yet to materialize. However, traders remain on alert for possible intervention from Japanese authorities, which might cap the upside for the cross. 

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a near-term bullish bias as price extends above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger middle band, keeping the broader uptrend supported. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.23 sits in positive territory without entering overbought conditions, suggesting that buying pressure remains constructive but not overstretched.

On the topside, the next notable resistance is the upper Bollinger band, emerging around 113.55, where the current advance could start to face profit-taking. The next hurdle to watch is the May 14 high of 114.66. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 112.65, followed by the Bollinger midline near 112.35, while deeper pullbacks would likely be cushioned by the lower Bollinger band around 111.15.

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EUR/USD Price – Bulls remain cautious below 23.6% Fibo. and 1.1470 hurdle

  • EUR/USD trades with a positive bias for the second straight day amid a softer US Dollar.
  • Escalating US-Iran tensions keep geopolitical risk premiums in play and support the USD.
  • The technical setup also warrants some caution before placing bullish bets on the pair.

The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day’s pullback from the 1.1460-1.1470 horizontal resistance, though it remains confined within a multi-week-old range. Spot prices trade around the 1.1435-1.1440 region during the Asian session on Wednesday, up for the second straight day amid modest US Dollar (USD) weakness.

Softer-than-expected US consumer inflation data, released on Tuesday, forced traders to scale back their expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, which keeps the USD bulls depressed and acts as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. However, inflation risks stemming from elevated crude oil prices and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s price stability commitment, along with escalating US-Iran tensions, should limit deeper USD losses and cap the currency pair.

The EUR/USD pair has been struggling to find acceptance and build on its strength beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downfall. Adding to this, momentum indicators hint at scope for corrective upticks rather than a clear trend reversal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 suggests improving but still moderate bullish momentum.

This further warrants some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets on the EUR/USD pair and positioning for an extension of the recent recovery from the 1.1325 region, or the year-to-date low touched in June. The subsequent resistance below the 23.6% Fibo. aligns at the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, near 1.1490, with the 38.2% retracement near 1.1523 and the 50.0% level around 1.1585 acting as the next relevant hurdles.

On the downside, the main structural support emerges at the Fibonacci anchor close to 1.1323, and a clear break under this floor would likely reinforce the broader bearish outlook for the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.16%-0.05%-0.08%-0.10%-0.17%-0.03%-0.00%
EUR0.16%0.05%0.07%0.05%-0.06%0.07%0.15%
GBP0.05%-0.05%0.02%-0.01%-0.11%0.02%0.09%
JPY0.08%-0.07%-0.02%-0.03%-0.11%0.03%0.06%
CAD0.10%-0.05%0.01%0.03%-0.07%0.00%0.10%
AUD0.17%0.06%0.11%0.11%0.07%0.11%0.16%
NZD0.03%-0.07%-0.02%-0.03%-0.01%-0.11%0.07%
CHF0.00%-0.15%-0.09%-0.06%-0.10%-0.16%-0.07%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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Trade of The Day – AUD/CAD

cts: The main trend on AUDCAD remains downward for a few days The price bounced off the upper limit of 1:1 structure at 0.9800

Recommendation: Trade: Short AUDCAD at market price Target: 0.9780, 0.9769 Stop: 0,9807

Opinion: Looking at the M15 interval, AUDCAD has been trading in a downward trend recently. Following an upward correction, the price failed to break above the resistance marked with the upper limit of 1:1 structure and 100-period moving average from the M15 interval, and started to pull back. According to the Overbalance methodology, the main sentiment prevails and we should expect the price to continue to fall. We recommend going short AUDCAD at market price with two targets: 0.9780 and 0.9769 . We also recommend placing stop loss at 0.9807. Source: xStation5

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Oil prices sharply up after Iran escalation

Brent crude tests $85 per barrel amid intensified attacks between the US and Iran Oil prices are rising for the second day in a row due to tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude is up over 2%, testing the vicinity of $85 per barrel. This is the highest level since the downward gap that occurred between June 12 and 15. Situation in the Strait of Hormuz and US plans: President Donald Trump reinstated the blockade of Iranian ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Although the United States indicates that it will act as a security guarantor on this key waterway, Trump announced plans to collect a 20% fee (compensation) from all other cargo benefiting from this protection.

Iran’s reaction and plans: Despite the American blockade imposed on Iranian merchant ships, Tehran is not backing down and firmly announces the continuation of exporting its raw materials to world markets. At the same time, it reports an attack on two supertankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Market background: Further exchange of blows between Washington and Tehran postpones the prospect of quickly unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. This situation raises renewed inflation concerns and increases the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the US Fed.

It is worth noting that US crude oil inventories are already extremely low from the perspective of recent years, and reserves are the lowest since the 1980s. If vessel traffic is not resumed, oil prices could rise even to the level of $100 per barrel. If the situation is tense but the ship flow is continued to a limited extent, prices will likely reach an important supply zone in the vicinity of $88-$90 per barrel, where important technical levels are located. Zapasy i rezerwy strategiczne w USA

US commercial inventories are the lowest since 2018, while strategic reserves are at their lowest since the 1980s. A further decline in inventories and reserves could raise concerns about energy security in the US, despite near-total self-sufficiency. It is worth noting, however, that the United States has served as a buffer for supplies to Asian countries. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Brent crude chart on the D1 interval

The price of crude oil has risen by over 20% from its last local low at the turn of the month and is approaching the 61.8 retracement of the upward wave associated with the Iranian conflict. The 88-90 USD zone is reinforced by local lows and the 50-period average. Source: xStation5