The dollar index traded around 100.8 on Friday, hovering at its highest level since May 2025 as investors piled on rate hike bets this year following hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the Fed left rates unchanged as widely expected, but roughly half of FOMC members now anticipate at least one rate increase in 2026. The central bank also raised its inflation projections to account for the economic effects of the conflict in the Middle East. Chair Kevin Warsh declined to provide guidance on the next policy move but reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability. Meanwhile, the US-Iran interim peace agreement took effect on Thursday, bringing an end to a prolonged conflict that triggered a historic disruption to global energy supplies. While the deal helped ease geopolitical risks and pushed oil prices lower, markets remained focused on the Fed’s policy outlook and the prospect of tighter monetary conditions.
