- EUR/USD attracts some buyers and moves away from the weekly low.
- The upside seems limited as traders keenly await the US NFP report.
- The bearish setup backs the case for the emergence of fresh sellers.
The EUR/USD pair ticks higher during the Asian session on Thursday, though it lacks bullish conviction as traders keenly await the release of the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1385 area and remain close to the weekly low, touched on Wednesday.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair retains a negative near-term bias beneath the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Adding to this, the recent recovery from the lowest level since May 2025 has been along an upward-sloping channel, which constitutes the formation of a bearish flag pattern.
Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (14) near 42.5 and a slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hint at fading bullish momentum. Momentum indicators together reinforce the near-term bearish outlook and suggest that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair remains to the downside.
The EUR/USD pair holds just above the lower boundary of the rising parallel channel at 1.1366. This, however, points to only a tentative structural support, and a convincing break below would open the way for a slide. Spot prices might then aim towards retesting the year-to-date trough, around the 1.1335-1.1330 region, touched in June.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the upper edge of the upward parallel channel at 1.1451, ahead of stronger supply at the 200-period EMA clustered around 1.1522. The EUR/USD pair would need to reclaim the said barriers to ease the broader bearish tone and shift the technical picture toward a more constructive outlook.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
