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AUD/USD Advances to 0.7170 as bulls await range breakout on softer USD

  • AUD/USD attracts some dip-buyers on Monday amid a modest US Dollar weakness.
  • The RBA’s hawkish stance counters US-Iran tensions and offers support to the Aussie.
  • The technical setup favors bulls as the market focus shifts to the key FOMC meeting.

The AUD/USD pair turns positive for the second consecutive day following a modest dip on Monday and climbs to a three-day high, around the 0.7170 region during the Asian session. Spot prices, however, remain confined within a familiar range that has been held over the past two weeks or so, warranting some caution for bullish traders.

Despite stalled US-Iran peace talks and a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to lure buyers and remains on the defensive as bulls seem reluctant ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting this week. Moreover, a generally positive risk tone is seen undermining the Greenback’s safe-haven demand and acting as a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair amid the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance.

From a technical perspective, the recent range-bound price action might be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of a rally from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), touched in March. Furthermore, positive momentum studies maintain a constructive outlook for the AUD/USD pair, suggesting that the path of least resistance remains to the upside and backing the case for an eventual bullish breakout.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 60 without yet signaling overbought conditions and points to sustained upside pressure. Also, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in a positive zone, indicating that the recent advance is broadly backed by upward momentum. However, a move above the 0.7185-0.7190 area, or the trading range hurdle, is needed to reaffirm the constructive outlook.

On the flip side, any corrective pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity and continue to find decent support ahead of the 0.7100 mark. A convincing break below the said handle, along with any loss of momentum in the indicators, would warn of a corrective phase within the broader bullish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD daily chart

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Currency Talk – AUDCAD, NZDUSD, USDJPY

Key takeaways

  • What is the technical outlook for AUDCAD, NZDUSD, and USDJPY?

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where a reversal might occur. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.

AUDCAD

Since late March, AUDCAD has been trending upward. The key level remains the support at 0.9755, which stems from the lower boundary of the local 1:1 pattern, as well as from previous local peaks. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as the price remains above this level, the uptrend remains in effect. However, it is worth noting the lack of a clear demand reaction—further tests of this support level could weaken it, increasing the risk of a breakout to the downside. Therefore, the 0.9755 level is critical in the short term for the direction of the market.

AUDCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

NZDUSD

Since early April, the NZDUSD pair has been trending upward, but the market is currently testing key support at the 0.5840 level. Holding this level could trigger another upward move. Conversely, a break below this level and a return below 0.5828 could pave the way for a resumption of the downward trend. The current levels are therefore crucial for determining the short-term direction.

NZDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

USDJPY

USDJPY has been trending upward for quite some time, but in April we saw a consolidation phase and two tests of support at the 158.10 level. This level was successfully defended, which supports the current uptrend. A break above the March 29 high would confirm the continuation of the uptrend. However, as long as support at 158.10 holds, the base case scenario is for further gains. A break below this level, however, could lead to a larger correction toward 155.11.

USDJPY – H4 chart. Source: xStation

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AUD/USD edges lower as US-Iran tensions outweigh support from stronger Australian PMI

  • AUD/USD posts a modest decline despite improving Australian PMI data.
  • Rising tensions between the United States and Iran dampen risk appetite.
  • PMI data may provide short-term direction.

AUD/USD trades around 0.7140 on Thursday, down 0.27% on the day, moving within a tight range as market sentiment remains pressured by geopolitical tensions.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) struggles to benefit from supportive domestic data. S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reports show manufacturing activity returning to expansion territory, while the services sector also rebounds. However, these positive signals are offset by a still-uncertain outlook, marked by weak demand and rising costs.

The main source of pressure comes from the global backdrop. Escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran are fueling risk aversion, following incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and the lack of progress in peace negotiations. This environment supports demand for safe-haven assets and weighs on risk-sensitive currencies such as the AUD.

According to Société Générale, the Australian Dollar remains particularly vulnerable in this context due to its reliance on imported petroleum products. The bank highlights that this exposure could amplify AUD volatility, especially in the event of prolonged supply disruptions.

On the US side, the latest labor market data shows Initial Jobless Claims rising slightly to 214K, above expectations. However, the release has had a limited impact on the US Dollar (USD), as investors remain primarily focused on geopolitical developments and Oil price dynamics.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar is supported by higher Treasury yields and reduced expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is moving higher, reflecting this trend.

In this environment, AUD/USD remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines and upcoming macroeconomic releases, particularly the US PMI figures due later in the day, which could provide further clues on monetary policy expectations.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.11%0.10%0.02%0.06%0.20%0.46%0.11%
EUR-0.11%0.00%-0.11%-0.05%0.07%0.35%-0.03%
GBP-0.10%-0.00%-0.09%-0.05%0.09%0.36%-0.03%
JPY-0.02%0.11%0.09%0.03%0.19%0.42%0.08%
CAD-0.06%0.05%0.05%-0.03%0.15%0.40%0.03%
AUD-0.20%-0.07%-0.09%-0.19%-0.15%0.27%-0.13%
NZD-0.46%-0.35%-0.36%-0.42%-0.40%-0.27%-0.39%
CHF-0.11%0.03%0.03%-0.08%-0.03%0.13%0.39%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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AUD/USD Turns upside down as market sentiment turns risk-off

  • AUD/USD surrenders early gains and turns negative as investors turn risk-averse after Iranian attacks on three ships in Hormuz.
  • Higher oil prices due to the Hormuz closure remain a key concern for global markets.
  • Australian Composite PMI returns above 50.0 in April.

The AUD/USD pair gives up its early gains and trades 0.24% lower around 0.7145 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The Aussie pair faces selling pressure as the market sentiment turns risk-averse, following Iranian attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.06%0.11%0.03%0.02%0.25%0.29%0.12%
EUR-0.06%0.07%-0.04%-0.04%0.16%0.23%0.04%
GBP-0.11%-0.07%-0.09%-0.11%0.11%0.17%-0.03%
JPY-0.03%0.04%0.09%-0.02%0.22%0.24%0.08%
CAD-0.02%0.04%0.11%0.02%0.24%0.27%0.08%
AUD-0.25%-0.16%-0.11%-0.22%-0.24%0.06%-0.16%
NZD-0.29%-0.23%-0.17%-0.24%-0.27%-0.06%-0.20%
CHF-0.12%-0.04%0.03%-0.08%-0.08%0.16%0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

As of writing, S&P 500 futures trade 0.53% lower to near 7,100, reflecting a weak risk appetite of investors. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up 0.1% to near 98.70, the highest level seen in over a week.

According to a report from The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Tehran fired on three ships in the Hormuz and escorted two of them to Iranian waters, and is bringing those ships to Iran.

Though the US-Iran ceasefire extension has diminished fears of military activities, higher oil prices due to the Hormuz closure are keeping currencies from economies that rely on oil imports to meet their energy needs under pressure.

On the economic data front, Australian flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April has come in stronger than the previous reading. The Composite PMI returns above 50.0, a figure that separates expansion from contraction. The overall business activity improved to 50.1 from 46.6 in March due to higher output from both the manufacturing and the services sectors.

AUD/USD technical analysis

IAUD/USD trades lower at around 0.7145 as of writing; however, the pair holds a constructive near‑term bullish bias as spot remains above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7086, keeping the short-term trend supported after its recent recovery from sub-0.70 levels.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 60 stays in positive territory without entering overbought conditions, hinting that upside momentum is still present but not yet stretched.

On the downside, immediate support is defined by the 20-period EMA at 0.7086, where a break would signal fading bullish pressure and expose a deeper pullback toward recent lows. As long as AUD/USD defends this moving average on closing bases, the technical picture favors dip-buying strategies and keeps scope open for further gains in the sessions ahead.

Looking up, the multi-year high at 0.7222 is the major barrier for the pair; however, a breakout above the same would open the scope of extending the rally towards 0.7300.

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AUD/JPY Softens below 114.00, but uptrend holds above 100-day EMA

  • AUD/JPY weakens to near 113.95 in Thursday’s early European session. 
  • The positive outlook of the cross remains intact above the 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 115.60; the initial support level is seen at 113.09. 

The AUD/JPY cross attracts some sellers to around 113.95 during the early European session on Thursday. Uncertainty regarding Iran’s participation in further peace talks could provide some support to a safe-haven currency such as the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). 

Furthermore, intervention fears might cap the upside for the cross. Japanese authorities, including Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, highlighted a “high sense of urgency” regarding speculative and weak-JPY moves driven by Middle East tensions. 

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds well above the Bollinger middle band and the 100-period exponential moving average (EMA), keeping the near-term bias clearly bullish despite the recent pause. Price is stretching toward the upper Bollinger band resistance at 115.58, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 65.9 leans into overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is strong but vulnerable to bouts of consolidation.

On the topside, a decisive break above the upper Bollinger band at 115.60 would open the door to further gains and extend the prevailing uptrend. On the downside, initial support emerges the April 20 low of 113.09. The next contention level is located at the Bollinger middle band around 112.12, with deeper protection from the 100-period EMA at 108.73 and the lower Bollinger band at 108.65, where buyers would be expected to reappear on any sharper corrective pullback.

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AUD edges higher as Trump extends ceasefire with Iran

  • AUD/USD gains traction to around 0.7160 in Wednesday’s early Asian session. 
  • Trump said the US is extending the ceasefire with Iran at Pakistan’s request. 
  • Markets expect the RBA to further raise the rate due to rising fuel costs and inflation. 

The AUD/USD pair trades in positive territory near 0.7160 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. However, the potential upside for the pair might be limited amid uncertainty regarding Iran’s participation in further peace talks. 

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he is extending the ceasefire with Iran while awaiting a “unified proposal” from Tehran. Trump also stated that he would maintain a blockade over ships coming to and from Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, and he was extending the ceasefire until Iran submitted a new proposal, “and discussions are concluded, one way or the other.”

Comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair nominee Kevin Warsh regarding independent monetary policy contribute to the USD’s upside. Warsh said on Tuesday he had made no promises to Trump about cutting interest rates, as he tried to assure US senators mulling his confirmation to lead the Fed that he would act independently of the White House while pursuing broad reforms.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) warned that the Middle East has caused oil price spikes that threaten to push inflation toward 6%. Markets are now pricing in nearly a 77% probability of an RBA rate hike next month as Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser reinforced a commitment to anchoring inflation.

Traders will keep an eye on the preliminary readings of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from Australia and the US, which are due on Thursday. 

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Today Markets – Forecasting The Upcoming Week

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is losing momentum near 98.00 as safe-haven demand fades on the reopening news, but downside remains limited amid lingering geopolitical risks.

Markets are experiencing fluctuations between relief and renewed caution as developments around the Strait of Hormuz continue to evolve. Earlier reports confirmed that this vital Oil chokepoint is “fully open and ready for full passage,” alleviating fears about prolonged supply disruptions.

However, new developments are complicating the situation. Reports suggest that Iran may consider closing the Strait of Hormuz again if the United States maintains its naval blockade, warning that such an action would be viewed as a violation of the ceasefire.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.09%-0.17%-0.59%-0.23%-0.31%-0.16%-0.49%
EUR0.09%-0.08%-0.52%-0.15%-0.22%-0.08%-0.42%
GBP0.17%0.08%-0.45%-0.07%-0.14%0.01%-0.32%
JPY0.59%0.52%0.45%0.37%0.28%0.42%0.09%
CAD0.23%0.15%0.07%-0.37%-0.08%0.05%-0.26%
AUD0.31%0.22%0.14%-0.28%0.08%0.15%-0.19%
NZD0.16%0.08%-0.01%-0.42%-0.05%-0.15%-0.34%
CHF0.49%0.42%0.32%-0.09%0.26%0.19%0.34%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

EUR/USD is pushing higher toward the 1.1790 region, benefiting from the softer USD tone, although gains remain capped by cautious sentiment and mixed Eurozone data.

GBP/USD is also advancing near the 1.3550 level, supported by improved risk appetite as the pair attempts to recover recent losses amid a reassessment of global risks.

USD/JPY fell near the 158.20 price zone as the Japanese Yen (JPY) finds some support from residual safe-haven demand.

AUD/USD was one of the top performers earlier in the day, rallying sharply toward the 0.7200 region but later easing to near the 0.7180 price zone. Oil shock fears and improved global sentiment favor commodity-linked currencies.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil sharply declined to near the $83.00 per barrel, lower after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as supply concerns ease and risk premiums unwind. Still, prices remain vulnerable to sudden spikes if geopolitical tensions resurface.

Gold surged toward $4,865, even after safe-haven demand weakened amid ongoing uncertainty and the risk of renewed escalation in the Middle East.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

Tuesday, April 21:

  • ECB’s Nagel speech
  • ECB’s De Guindos speech
  • Fed’s Waller speech

Wednesday, April 22:

  • ECB’s Elderson speech
  • ECB’s Lane speech
  • BoE’s Breeden speech
  • ECB’s Lane speech
  • ECB’s Cipollone speech
  • ECB’s Sleijpen speech
  • ECB’s Nagel speech
  • ECB’s President Lagarde speech

Thursday, April 23:

  • ECB’s Nagel speech

Friday, April 24:

  • SNB Chairman Schlegel’s speech

Central banks’ meetings and upcoming data releases to shape

Monday, April 20:

  • China PBoC Interest Rate Decision
  • Germany PPI March
  • Canada CPIs
  • Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey
  • New Zealand Business Confidence Q1
  • New Zealand CPI Q1

Tuesday, April 21:

  • United Kingdom Labor Market Data
  • Germany ZEW Survey April
  • Eurozone ZEW Survey April
  • United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average
  • United States Retail Sales March
  • United States Pending Home Sales March
  • Japan Trade Balance March
  • Japan Exports March
  • Japan Imports March

Wednesday, April 22:

  • United Kingdom Inflation Data March
  • Eurozone Consumer Confidence April Prel
  • Australia S&P Global PMIs April Prel

Thursday, April 23:

  • Eurozone ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting
  • France HCOB PMIs April Prel
  • Germany HCOB PMIs April Prel
  • Eurozone HCOB PMIs April Prel
  • United Kingdom S&P Global PMIs April Prel
  • United States Initial Jobless Claims
  • United States S&P Global PMIs April Prel
  • United States New Home Sales March
  • United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence April
  • Japan Inflation Data March

Friday, April 24:

  • United Kingdom Retail Sales March
  • Germany IFO Survey April
  • Canada Retail Sales February
  • United States Michigan Data April
  • United States Inflation Expectations April
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Australian Dollar outperforms on broader risk rally, hawkish RBA bets

  • AUD/USD rises to near 0.7175 as the Australian Dollar outperforms amid the risk-on mood.
  • Market sentiment remains favorable for riskier assets on Iran truce hopes.
  • Traders expected the RBA to hike interest rates further by 55 bps this year.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its major currency peers, trading 0.16% higher to near 0.7175 ahead of the opening of United States (US) markets during the European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair trades firmly as Iran optimism-based broader risk rally has strengthened the antipodean.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.15%-0.02%0.00%-0.18%-0.14%0.09%-0.18%
EUR0.15%0.12%0.11%-0.05%0.00%0.22%-0.03%
GBP0.02%-0.12%-0.02%-0.18%-0.13%0.10%-0.15%
JPY0.00%-0.11%0.02%-0.15%-0.12%0.10%-0.14%
CAD0.18%0.05%0.18%0.15%0.04%0.25%0.03%
AUD0.14%-0.00%0.13%0.12%-0.04%0.22%-0.02%
NZD-0.09%-0.22%-0.10%-0.10%-0.25%-0.22%-0.24%
CHF0.18%0.03%0.15%0.14%-0.03%0.02%0.24%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

During the press time, S&P 500 futures trades 0.2% higher to near 7,060, reflecting a strong demand for riskier assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 98.10. The DXY is all set to close negatively for the second straight week.

A broader risk rally suggests that market participants are confident of the announcement of a permanent ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran, as President Donald Trump has expressed multiple times that Washington is close to reaching a deal with Tehran.

US President Trump said in a press briefing on Thursday, “We’re very close to a deal with Iran,” while warning that military actions against Tehran would resume if a deal is not closed. Trump also said that Iran is willing to give up its enriched uranium and surrender its nuclear ambitions.

On the domestic front, market participants expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to deliver more interest rate hikes this year. In the March policy meeting, the RBA raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.1%, and warned that inflation was already high in Australia before the war in the Middle East started.

According to a Reuters report, the RBA is expected to raise its OCR further by 55 bps in the remaining year to 4.65%.