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AUD/JPY Price Weakens to near 112.50, but uptrend remains constructive

  • AUD/JPY weakens to near 112.62 in Thursday’s early European session.
  • The cross keeps a constructive bullish bias, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out with neutral RSI momentum.
  • The initial support level is located at 112.55; the immediate resistance level to watch is 113.55.

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 112.62 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) amid escalating tensions in the Middle East after US President Donald Trump said an interim agreement to end the war with Iran was “over.”

Traders are also on high alert for possible intervention from Japanese officials. “The yen’s current weakness is excessive and fails to reflect the strong fundamentals of the Japanese economy, a misalignment that could prompt major central banks to launch coordinated intervention,” said Michael Nizard, head of multi-asset and overlay at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds above the 100-day moving average (MA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day simple moving average (SMA), which together suggest a constructive bullish bias after the recent pullback. Price also remains comfortably above the lower Bollinger band, while the upper band marks the next upside objective as the pair grinds higher; the Relative Strength Index (14) near 50 keeps momentum neutral, hinting at consolidation rather than exhaustion for now.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day MA at 112.55, followed by the Bollinger midline around 112.42 and then the lower band at 111.15, where buyers would likely defend the broader uptrend. On the other hand, the first upside barrier emerges at the June 16 high of 113.55. The next hurdle is seen at the upper Bollinger band at 113.70, en route to the May 13 high of 114.74.

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AUD/USD Price – 0.6860 is key support level amid geopolitical risks

  • The Australian Dollar edges up against the US Dollar despite multiple headwinds.
  • Middle East war may last longer due to US attacks on Iranian infrastructure.
  • The FOMC minutes show that several policymakers see the need for monetary policy tightening.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades marginally higher at around 0.6935 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The Aussie pair edges up as the US Dollar ticks lower despite escalating Middle East risks and hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes of the June policy meeting.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.13% lower to near 100.92.

The attacks on Iranian infrastructure by United States (US) military forces signal that the restart of the war would last long, a scenario that might keep oil prices higher and the appeal of safe-haven assets upbeat. According to Axios, the US Air Force bombed two railway bridges in Iran on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the FOMC Minutes showed on Wednesday that policymakers are concerned about upside inflation risks and several of them see the need to tighten monetary conditions to ease price pressures.

In the Australian region, traders might consider raising hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) bets again as Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter has reiterated that the central bank would act, if needed, for inflation to return to target and maintain sustainable full employment.

Lately, traders pared hawkish RBA bets as the Australian monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) has cooled down in the last two months.

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USD trades slightly higher at around 0.6936, but maintains a bearish near-term tone as it remains below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6963.

The pair has been unable to reclaim this short-term trend proxy, suggesting that rallies are likely to be capped while price holds under the EMA. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.46 stays below the midline, hinting at persistent, though not extreme, selling pressure.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-period EMA at 0.6963, which is the first level bulls would need to overcome to ease the current downside bias. Above the moving average, the next resistance for the pair will be the psychological level of 0.7000. Looking down, the June low at 0.6865 is the key support level; a break below that would expose the pair to the March low at 0.6833.

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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Hawkish remarks from RBA’s Hunter lift Australian Dollar

  • AUD/USD rises to near 0.6943 as the Australian Dollar outperforms.
  • RBA’s Hunter signals that the central bank is committed to bringing inflation back to the target.
  • Investors await the FOMC Minutes and China’s CPI data for June.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades 0.23% higher to near 0.6943 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The Aussie pair gains as the Australian Dollar outperforms its major currency peers, except the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeping the door open for further monetary policy tightening, if needed, to bring inflation back to the central bank’s target.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.03%0.03%0.15%-0.02%-0.21%-0.50%0.03%
EUR0.03%0.05%0.17%-0.00%-0.18%-0.49%0.05%
GBP-0.03%-0.05%0.13%-0.03%-0.25%-0.52%-0.03%
JPY-0.15%-0.17%-0.13%-0.18%-0.34%-0.65%-0.15%
CAD0.02%0.00%0.03%0.18%-0.18%-0.48%0.02%
AUD0.21%0.18%0.25%0.34%0.18%-0.30%0.18%
NZD0.50%0.49%0.52%0.65%0.48%0.30%0.49%
CHF-0.03%-0.05%0.03%0.15%-0.02%-0.18%-0.49%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Earlier in the day, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said that the central bank will act as needed to bring inflation back to target, even as the recent oil shock has yet to produce a marked slowdown in economic activity.

This year, the RBA has already delivered three interest rate hikes of 25 basis points (bps) and has pushed the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.35%.

Going forward, investors will focus on China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades marginally lower ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT. Investors will pay close attention to FOMC minutes to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USD trades higher at around 0.6944 at press time. However, the near-term tone is mildly bearish as it holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 0.6967. The pair’s inability to reclaim this nearby EMA resistance suggests topside attempts remain capped, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.75 stays below the midline, hinting at subdued but not extreme selling pressure.

On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered at the 20-period EMA at 0.6967, which needs to be overcome to shift the near-term bias toward recovery and open the way for a more sustained rebound. Looking down, the June 30 low at 0.6865 is the key support zone; a break below that would open further downside towards the March 30 low at 0.6833.

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AUD/USD – Eases from two-week top; 38.2% Fibo. near 0.6955 holds the key

  • AUD/USD attracts sellers after a modest Asian session uptick to a two-week high.
  • The mixed technical setup warrants caution before placing fresh directional bets.
  • A move beyond the 38.2% Fibo. is needed to back the case for a meaningful upside.

The AUD/USD retreats slightly from the 0.6960 area, or a two-week high, touched during the Asian session on Tuesday, and, for now, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak. The intraday downtick, however, lacks bearish conviction, warranting caution before confirming that a one-week-old recovery move from a three-month low has run out of steam.

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair, so far, has been struggling to make it through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 2025-May 2026 rally. Furthermore, mixed momentum oscillators make it prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the said barrier before positioning for an extension of the recent bounce from the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support near 0.6870.

In fact, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, hinting at a slight improvement in the upside momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 42 suggests only modest directional pressure, consistent with a consolidative bias around current levels, warranting some caution for aggressive bullish traders as renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz support the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, initial support emerges at the 50% retracement at 0.6853, ahead of a deeper structural floor at the 61.8% Fibo. near 0.6752, with 0.6608 and 0.6425 marking subsequent retracement and cycle-low supports if selling extends. On the topside, a break above the 38.2% Fibo. at 0.6954 would open the way toward the 23.6% retracement barrier at 0.7079, while the cycle high around 0.7282 stands as a more distant objective should bullish momentum gain traction.

AUD/USD daily chart

Chart Analysis AUD/USD

Australian Dollar Price Last 7 Days

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.13%-0.99%-0.10%0.04%-0.83%-0.85%-0.25%
EUR0.13%-0.88%0.04%0.15%-0.71%-0.66%-0.12%
GBP0.99%0.88%0.93%1.01%0.15%0.21%0.75%
JPY0.10%-0.04%-0.93%0.17%-0.69%-0.64%-0.18%
CAD-0.04%-0.15%-1.01%-0.17%-0.87%-0.80%-0.28%
AUD0.83%0.71%-0.15%0.69%0.87%-0.01%0.59%
NZD0.85%0.66%-0.21%0.64%0.80%0.01%0.51%
CHF0.25%0.12%-0.75%0.18%0.28%-0.59%-0.51%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

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AUD/USD Price Retreats from 38.2% Fibo. hurdle; holds above 0.6900

  • AUD/USD kicks off the new week on a weaker note, snapping a two-day winning streak.
  • The mixed technical setup warrants caution before placing aggressive directional bets.
  • A convincing break below the 200-day SMA is needed to confirm a negative outlook.

The AUD/USD pair meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Monday and, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day winning streak to the 0.6950 region, or a one-and-a-half-week high touched on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.6920 area, down 0.20% for the day, as tensions over the Strait of Hormuz drive some safe-haven flows towards the US Dollar (USD).

The AUD/USD pair fails near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 2025-May 2026 rally, stalling its recovery from a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), or a three-month low set last week. The latter is near the 50% retracement level, suggesting a constructive near-term bias as long as these supports remain intact. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned slightly positive, hinting at recovering upside momentum.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 39 still reflects only modest demand after the recent pullback. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying and a sustained strength  beyond the 38.2% Fibo. hurdle near 0.6950 before traders start positioning for any further near-term appreciating move for the AUD/USD pair. The 23.6% retracement at 0.7077 could act as the next notable barrier if buyers extend the advance.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 200-day SMA around 0.6869, followed by the 50.0% retracement near 0.6851. A convincing break below this area would expose deeper Fibonacci supports at 0.6750 and 0.6607 before the broader base around 0.6424.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD daily chart

Chart Analysis AUD/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.01%0.05%0.28%0.06%0.15%0.34%0.09%
EUR-0.01%0.04%0.26%0.05%0.14%0.33%0.09%
GBP-0.05%-0.04%0.22%-0.02%0.06%0.30%0.07%
JPY-0.28%-0.26%-0.22%-0.23%-0.13%0.04%-0.11%
CAD-0.06%-0.05%0.02%0.23%0.07%0.29%0.07%
AUD-0.15%-0.14%-0.06%0.13%-0.07%0.22%-0.00%
NZD-0.34%-0.33%-0.30%-0.04%-0.29%-0.22%-0.23%
CHF-0.09%-0.09%-0.07%0.11%-0.07%0.00%0.23%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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Australian Dollar remains on the front foot vs weaker USD after China Services PMI

  • AUD/USD attracts buyers for the second straight day as receding Fed hike bets undermine the USD.
  • Spot prices move little following the release of rather unimpressive China’s RatingDog Services PMI.
  • Geopolitical risks hold back the USD bears from placing aggressive bets, capping gains for the major.

The AUD/USD pair turns positive for the second straight day following a modest Asian session downtick to the 0.6910 region amid the emergence of fresh US Dollar (USD) selling. Spot prices stick to gains following the release of the RatingDog China Services PMI and currently trade around the 0.6930 area, just below a one-and-a-half-week top set on Wednesday.

The gauge eased from a three month high of 54.4 to 54.1 in June. The reading, however, pointed to a continuous expansion in China’s services sector and offers some support to the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD). The USD, on the other hand, languishes near a two-week low, touched on Thursday, amid receding US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets. This turns out to be another factor that contributes to the bid tone surrounding the AUD/USD pair.

The closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), released on Wednesday, showed that the economy added 57K jobs in June, far below the 110K expected. Moreover, the previous month’s reading was revised down from 172K to 129K, pointing to softening labor conditions and offsetting a downtick in the Unemployment Rate to 4.2% in June. Nevertheless, the data shifted market expectations from one to two Fed rate increases in 2026 to between zero and one hike.

However, persistent geopolitical uncertainties hold back the USD bears from placing aggressive bets and cap the upside for the AUD/USD pair. In fact, the New York Times reported that US officials feared Israel may be hatching a plan to kill Iran’s senior negotiators, which could derail negotiations and trigger renewed fighting. Furthermore, Iran’s military headquarters warned that any US interference in the Strait of Hormuz will be met with a “decisive and swift response.”

Adding to this, relatively thin liquidity on the back of a holiday in the US makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for an extension of the AUD/USD pair’s recovery from a three-month low, set earlier this week. Nevertheless, spot prices seem poised to register modest gains for the first time in three weeks and remain at the mercy of USD price dynamics.

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AUD/JPY Price – Holds gains near 112.00, but bearish bias persists below key moving averages

  • AUD/JPY edges higher to near 111.75 in Friday’s early European session.
  • The cross keeps the bearish vibe, with subdued RSI momentum.
  • The initial support level is located at 111.15; the immediate resistance level to watch is 112.40.

The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 111.75 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) following the Chinese economic data. China’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) eased slightly to 54.1 in June from 54.4 in May, according to RatingDog on Friday.

However, this figure still marked the third-steepest increase in services activity in nearly three years. Services exports grew for a second consecutive month, expanding at the fastest rate since October 2024. 

The potential upside might be limited amid fears of intervention from Japanese authorities. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that officials are ready to act appropriately on currency fluctuations. 

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds below a dense support band defined by the 100-day Moving Average (MA) and the middle Bollinger simple moving average, hinting downtrend in the near term. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers just above 40, hinting at subdued bullish conviction while stopping short of outright oversold conditions.

On the downside, initial support emerges around the lower Bollinger Band near 111.15, where sellers could pause before targeting deeper retracements. On the topside, bulls would need a daily close back above the 100-day MA at 112.40 and the Bollinger midline at 112.42 to ease the current bearish pressure and open the door for a more sustained recovery toward the broader consolidation highs.

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AUD steadies following Trade Balance data

  • AUD/USD holds steady as a stronger Australian Dollar was supported by positive domestic Trade Balance data.
  • Australia’s Trade Balance shifted to a A$3,018M deficit in May, reversing April’s surplus.
  • The US Dollar remains calm after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a relatively subdued tone at Wednesday’s ECB Forum.

AUD/USD inches higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.6900 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair holds ground as the Australian Dollar (AUD) remains stronger following the release of domestic Trade Balance data. Traders will closely monitor the US Nonfarm Payrolls figures for June later on Thursday.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released on Thursday that the Trade Balance shifted to a deficit of A$3,018M MoM in May, following a surplus of A$1,383M in the previous reading (revised from A$1,791M). The market consensus was for a surplus of A$2,200M. Exports fell by 6.9% MoM in May from a rise of 7.2% seen a month earlier. Meanwhile, Imports rose by 2.6% MoM in May, compared to an increase of 0.2% seen in April (revised from 0.8%).

The AUD/USD pair trades within a tight range as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes following a relatively subdued appearance by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh at the ECB Forum on Central Banking on Wednesday. Warsh opted not to provide explicit guidance regarding the central bank’s upcoming July policy decision. While he acknowledged that inflation remains too elevated and reiterated a firm commitment to the Fed’s 2% target and institutional independence, his overall tone was perceived as less hawkish than anticipated. Additionally, Warsh noted a personal preference for winding down the central bank’s bond portfolio but emphasized that any adjustments to the balance sheet would only occur after extensive public preparation.

The Greenback could face further headwinds on easing risk aversion amid a wave of optimistic geopolitical developments out of the Middle East. Qatari officials reported “positive progress” in the ongoing negotiations between US and Iranian diplomats regarding a memorandum of understanding, noting that both sides have agreed to continue their dialogue. Reinforcing this positive sentiment, US Vice President JD Vance stated that the discussions in Doha are going well and indicated that formal talks regarding the nuclear issue are expected to commence in the near future.