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AUD/JPY Price Declines below 113.50, while maintaining bullish near‑term structure

  • AUD/JPY softens to near 113.45 in Thursday’s early European session. 
  • The cross maintains a constructive outlook, with bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The immediate resistance level is seen at 113.70; the initial support level to watch is 112.65. 

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 113.45 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Verbal intervention from Japanese authorities provides some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). 

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that the authorities are ready to take appropriate action on currency anytime as needed. She added that the officials will track market trends and economic data to ensure fiscal sustainability.

Senior officials from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) noted that a delay in stimulus adjustment amid high inflation risk could trigger an economic downturn. However, a Reuters survey showed earlier Thursday that nearly half of Japanese firms are experiencing negative business impact from the BoJ’s interest rate hikes, with higher borrowing costs hurting bottom lines and discouraging capital investment. 

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a bullish near-term bias as price remains above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands 20-period middle band, suggesting the broader uptrend is still supported despite recent consolidation. The latest Relative Strength Index (14) reading around 57 keeps momentum on the constructive side, hinting that buyers retain control as long as the pair stays comfortably above the lower Bollinger band at 111.10.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger upper band around 113.70, where a sustained break would open the door to the May 13 high of 114.74.

On the downside, the first layer of support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 112.65, followed by the Bollinger middle band near 112.40, while a deeper pullback towards the lower band at 111.10 would be needed to seriously challenge the prevailing bullish structure.

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AUD/JPY Price Gains traction above 113.00, bullish trend stays firm above 100-day SMA

  • AUD/JPY gains ground to near 113.25 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
  • The cross keeps a bullish vibe above the 100-day SMA, with RSI holding above the midline. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 113.55; the initial support level is seen at  112.65.

The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 113.25 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after reports regarding the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF).

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that the government is considering nudging the world’s largest pension fund to buy domestic financial assets to support the currency, though concrete plans have yet to materialize. However, traders remain on alert for possible intervention from Japanese authorities, which might cap the upside for the cross. 

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a near-term bullish bias as price extends above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger middle band, keeping the broader uptrend supported. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.23 sits in positive territory without entering overbought conditions, suggesting that buying pressure remains constructive but not overstretched.

On the topside, the next notable resistance is the upper Bollinger band, emerging around 113.55, where the current advance could start to face profit-taking. The next hurdle to watch is the May 14 high of 114.66. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 112.65, followed by the Bollinger midline near 112.35, while deeper pullbacks would likely be cushioned by the lower Bollinger band around 111.15.

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Trade of The Day – AUD/CAD

cts: The main trend on AUDCAD remains downward for a few days The price bounced off the upper limit of 1:1 structure at 0.9800

Recommendation: Trade: Short AUDCAD at market price Target: 0.9780, 0.9769 Stop: 0,9807

Opinion: Looking at the M15 interval, AUDCAD has been trading in a downward trend recently. Following an upward correction, the price failed to break above the resistance marked with the upper limit of 1:1 structure and 100-period moving average from the M15 interval, and started to pull back. According to the Overbalance methodology, the main sentiment prevails and we should expect the price to continue to fall. We recommend going short AUDCAD at market price with two targets: 0.9780 and 0.9769 . We also recommend placing stop loss at 0.9807. Source: xStation5

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AUD/USD Price Tests nine-day EMA barrier near 0.6950

  • AUD/USD may decline toward a nearly six-month low of 0.6833.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index around 40 signals the asset remains under bearish pressure.
  • The pair is testing the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6932.

AUD/USD edges higher after posting 0.5% losses in the previous day, trading around 0.6930 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair remaining within the descending channel pattern, suggesting a prevailing bearish bias.

The AUD/USD pair is holding a bearish near-term bias as it remains under both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The pair is attempting to stabilise after recent losses, but the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 40 suggests only modest recovery momentum, hinting that any rebound may stay capped while price trades below these clustered moving-average barriers.

The AUD/USD pair may fall toward a nearly six-month low of 0.6833, recorded on March 30. Further declines would expose the lower boundary of the descending channel around 0.6770.

On the upside, the AUD/USD is testing the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6932, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel around 0.6960. A break above the channel would cause a bullish emergence and support the pair to test the 50-day EMA of 0.7011.

Chart Analysis AUD/USD
AUD/USD: Daily Chart

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.11%-0.10%-0.13%-0.18%-0.17%-0.75%-0.16%
EUR0.11%0.00%0.00%-0.07%-0.07%-0.63%-0.05%
GBP0.10%-0.00%0.00%-0.06%-0.05%-0.64%-0.05%
JPY0.13%0.00%0.00%-0.06%-0.07%-0.65%-0.07%
CAD0.18%0.07%0.06%0.06%-0.01%-0.57%0.01%
AUD0.17%0.07%0.05%0.07%0.00%-0.57%0.03%
NZD0.75%0.63%0.64%0.65%0.57%0.57%0.59%
CHF0.16%0.05%0.05%0.07%-0.01%-0.03%-0.59%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

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Australian Dollar Hovers Near 3-Month Lows

The Australian dollar hovered around $0.693, extending the previous week’s roughly 0.2% loss to trade near three-month lows as persistent Middle East tensions weighed on global risk sentiment. The US launched another wave of strikes on Iran over the weekend in response to an attack on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran retaliated by targeting US military facilities across the Middle East. Meanwhile, hawkish rhetoric from the Reserve Bank of Australia helped limit the Aussie’s losses. RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said last week that the board will act as needed to return inflation to its target, warning some tightening may be required if the oil shock lifts inflation expectations. Markets currently price around a 60% chance of one more rate hike later this year, up from roughly 40% previously, though futures imply only a 19% odds of an August move. Traders now await key employment and inflation data due later this month for fresh clues on the policy outlook.

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Trade of The Day – AUD/JPY

period moving average

Recommendation: Trade: Short AUDJPY at market price Target: 111.36, 110.75 Stop: 113.06

Opinion:

Looking at AUDJPY on the H4 interval, one can see that the pair is trying to return to the main trend. Bulls did not manage to break above the key resistance at 112.66, and sellers took over. The aforementioned resistance is a result of an upper limit of 1:1 structure. According to the Overbalance strategy, as long as the price sits below it, one should expect the price to go lower. In addition, the price sits below the 200-period moving average which confirms the bearish sentiment. We recommend going short AUDJPY at market price with two targets: 111.36, 110.75 We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 113.06.

Source: xStation5

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Australian Dollar edges higher to near 0.6950 on RBA hawkish rhetoric

  • AUD/USD edges higher to around 0.6950 in Friday’s Asian session.
  • RBA’s Hunter reaffirmed the board will take necessary actions to bring inflation down to its target.
  • Fed’s Williams said not looking for a sustained energy price increase.

The AUD/USD pair attracts some buyers to near 0.6950 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on hawkish rhetoric from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said on Wednesday that the board will act as needed to return inflation to its target, warning some tightening may be required if the oil shock lifts inflation expectations, per Reuters.

The Australian central bank has implemented three interest rate increases of 25 basis points (bps) so far this year, lifting the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.35%. Current ASX 30-day Interbank Cash Rate Futures indicated a minor 19% market expectation of a rate hike to 4.60% at the upcoming August meeting. 

According to Federal Reserve (Fed) Minutes from June 16 to 17 meeting, the first under new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, showed many participants said its key rate would be unchanged from or slightly below its current level of 3.6% by the end of this year. But “many” also said that it would likely be higher by year-end.

New York Fed President John Williams said on Thursday that despite the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East, he was not looking for a sustained rise in ‌energy prices over the remainder of the year.

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Australian Dollar Set for a Muted Week

The Australian dollar rose to around $0.695 but was on track to finish the week largely unchanged as investors monitored developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz following renewed tensions in the Middle East. The safe-haven US dollar strengthened, while oil prices climbed after the US and Iran carried out military strikes in the Gulf earlier this week. However, both countries are now set to resume peace talks despite the recent escalation. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Australia to 1.9% from 2.0% and warned inflation would remain elevated at around 4% this year. The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet in August and is expected to keep its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, though markets still price in a roughly 60% chance of one final rate hike later this year, depending on the movement of oil prices. Traders also await key employment and inflation data due later this month, which could offer fresh clues on the policy outlook.