AUD 2 - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger May 1, 2026 No Comments

AUD/USD holds steady near recent highs ahead of expected RBA rate hike

AUD/USD trades near 0.7200, holding steady despite volatility linked to geopolitical risks.
Investors largely expect a rate hike from the Australian central bank next week.
The US Dollar remains broadly under pressure, limiting downside in the pair.

AUD/USD trades around 0.7200 on Friday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day and holding near recent highs, as markets adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision scheduled for Tuesday.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains slightly supported against its major peers, with investors expecting this key event. According to a Reuters poll, a strong majority of economists expect a 25 basis point rate hike, which would bring the policy rate to 4.35%. These expectations are supported by persistent inflationary pressures in Australia, with the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming in at 4.6% YoY in March, still well above the central bank’s target.

Market participants will also closely watch Governor Michele Bullock’s comments for further guidance on the policy outlook, particularly as energy-related risks linked to tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz could continue to fuel inflationary pressures.

At the same time, the US Dollar (USD) is struggling to gain traction despite a geopolitical backdrop that usually supports safe-haven demand. Markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates unchanged through the end of the year, although some officials, including Neel Kashkari, have highlighted the possibility of further hikes in the event of a significant inflationary shock driven by energy prices.

Geopolitical tensions still provide intermittent support to the Greenback, particularly following reports that the US administration is considering military options regarding Iran. Meanwhile, diplomatic developments suggesting that Tehran has submitted a new proposal to the United States (US) on Thursday have temporarily weighed on the US Dollar.

Investors now turn their attention to the release of the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) later in the day, a key indicator for assessing economic momentum.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.25%	-0.22%	-0.02%	-0.14%	-0.03%	0.15%	-0.20%
EUR	0.25%		0.02%	0.22%	0.08%	0.22%	0.38%	0.05%
GBP	0.22%	-0.02%		0.19%	0.08%	0.19%	0.36%	0.05%
JPY	0.02%	-0.22%	-0.19%		-0.11%	-0.01%	0.14%	-0.16%
CAD	0.14%	-0.08%	-0.08%	0.11%		0.10%	0.28%	-0.03%
AUD	0.03%	-0.22%	-0.19%	0.00%	-0.10%		0.16%	-0.12%
NZD	-0.15%	-0.38%	-0.36%	-0.14%	-0.28%	-0.16%		-0.31%
CHF	0.20%	-0.05%	-0.05%	0.16%	0.03%	0.12%	0.31%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Currency Hedger May 1, 2026 No Comments

AUD/JPY Price Gains ground, maintaining bullish bias above 100-day EMA

AUD/JPY edges higher to around 113.10 in Friday’s early European session.
The cross keeps a positive tone above the 100-day EMA, with the RSI pointing to neutral but slightly positive momentum.
The immediate resistance level emerges at 113.30; the initial support level to watch is 111.10.

The AUD/JPY cross holds positive ground near 113.10 during the early European session on Friday. The cross remains firm after pulling back from a multi-decade high of 114.72. However, the potential upside for AUD/JPY might be limited amid intervention fears.

Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, on Friday declined to confirm the Japanese Yen (JPY) intervention directly but delivered a pointed warning to speculators, noting that Japan’s Golden Week holidays have just started and that there is no change to his view that market moves remain speculative in nature.

On the other hand, a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could underpin the Aussie. Australian headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation climbed to 4.6% YoY in March, primarily due to fuel price shocks linked to ongoing Middle East conflicts. While the figure was slightly below the 4.7% forecast, it remains well above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range, keeping pressure on the central bank to hike rates.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY keeps a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the lower Bollinger Band. Price is testing the Bollinger 20-day simple moving average (SMA) pivot at 113.30, suggesting ongoing upside interest after the recent pullback, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 points to neutral but slightly positive momentum rather than overbought conditions.

On the topside, a sustained break above the Bollinger mid-line at 113.30 would open the way toward the April 28 high of 114.72, en route to the upper Bollinger Band of 115.45. On the downside, initial demand is seen at the lower Bollinger Band near 111.10, ahead of stronger, medium-term support at the 100-day EMA around 109.30, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge if a deeper correction unfolds.

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

Currency Talk – EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, AUD/USD

Key takeaways

What is the technical outlook for EURGBP, EURAUD, and AUDUSD?

The Overbalance analysis aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures. EURGBP From March 20 through the end of the month, EURGBP traded in an uptrend, but the subsequent correction turned into a stronger downtrend. After the 1:1 upward pattern was negated at the 0.8693 level, the declines accelerated. Currently, the 0.8693–0.8688 zone represents key resistance. Only a return of the price above this zone could shift the balance of power on the chart. For now, the base scenario remains a decline toward the lows at 0.8617.

EURGBP – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation EURAUD From March 11 through the end of the month, the EURAUD pair was in an uptrend; however, the largest corrective pattern was subsequently negated at the 1.6680 level, which was then tested from the opposite side. Since then, we have observed the development of a downtrend. The largest current corrective pattern (marked in red) defines a key resistance level at 1.6470. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as the price remains below this level, the downtrend remains in effect.

EURAUD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation AUDUSD Since late March, the AUDUSD pair has been in an uptrend. Recently, the exchange rate has twice tested support at the 0.7015 level, which corresponds to the lower boundary of the 1:1 pattern. As long as this level holds, the uptrend remains intact. It is worth noting, however, that another test of this zone could weaken it, increasing the risk of it being broken and thus triggering a larger downward correction.

AUDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

AUD/USD – Bullish USD to cap recovery from 0.7100/two-week low

AUD/USD stages a modest recovery from a two-week low, around 0.7100, touched on Wednesday.
The Fed’s hawkish tilt and Iran tensions continue to underpin the USD, warranting caution for bulls.
The technical setup suggests that any further move up is likely to be sold into and remain capped.

The AUD/USD pair gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Thursday and recovers a part of the previous day’s heavy losses to the 0.7100 mark, or a two-week low.

Expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will stick to its hawkish stance counter China’s mixed official PMIs and turn out to be a key factor offering some support to the Australian Dollar (AUD). The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, sticks to its positive tone near the highest level since April 13 on the back of persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from stalled US-Iran peace talks. Furthermore, diminishing odds for any further policy easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) underpin the USD and should cap the upside for the AUD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices have repeatedly failed to find acceptance above the 0.7200 mark and have oscillated in a range over the past two weeks or so. Meanwhile, the overnight slide confirms a breakdown below the 0.7130-0.7125 confluence – comprising the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent recovery from the year-to-date low touched in March. This, in turn, favors the AUD/USD bears, suggesting that the move higher might now be seen as a selling opportunity.

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds around 40 and hints at modest bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in negative territory but flattening, suggesting downside pressure is softening rather than accelerating.

In the meantime, immediate resistance emerges at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7131, with a stronger barrier at the recent cycle high near 0.7223. On the downside, initial support aligns with the 0.7100 mark ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 0.7074. This is followed by the 50.0% level at 0.7027 and deeper supports at the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements at 0.6981 and 0.6915, respectively, where buyers would likely attempt to slow any extended pullback.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.11%	0.00%	0.00%	-0.04%	-0.11%	-0.08%	-0.01%
EUR	-0.11%		-0.07%	-0.13%	-0.16%	-0.21%	-0.17%	-0.10%
GBP	-0.01%	0.07%		-0.02%	-0.08%	-0.12%	-0.09%	-0.02%
JPY	0.00%	0.13%	0.02%		-0.06%	-0.11%	-0.13%	-0.04%
CAD	0.04%	0.16%	0.08%	0.06%		-0.08%	-0.06%	0.04%
AUD	0.11%	0.21%	0.12%	0.11%	0.08%		0.04%	0.12%
NZD	0.08%	0.17%	0.09%	0.13%	0.06%	-0.04%		0.08%
CHF	0.00%	0.10%	0.02%	0.04%	-0.04%	-0.12%	-0.08%

Currency Hedger April 29, 2026 No Comments

AUD/USD slides as US Dollar gains on geopolitical tensions ahead of Fed decision

AUD/USD weakens as softer Australian CPI and a firm US Dollar pressure the Aussie.
US-Iran tensions remain elevated as peace talks stall and supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist.
Markets await the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, weighed by softer-than-expected Australian inflation data, while fading hopes that the US-Iran war will end anytime soon support the Greenback.

At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading around 0.7139, down nearly 0.60% on the day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.78, up about 0.15%.

Market sentiment weakens after Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump and oil companies discussed plans to maintain the Iran blockade for months if needed, citing a White House official. Trump also warned that “Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon,” he wrote on Truth Social. The comments follow US skepticism over Iran’s proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz while delaying nuclear talks.

Looking ahead, attention turns to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision due at 18:00 GMT. Markets widely expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range as policymakers assess the impact of rising energy prices on inflation, driven by ongoing supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Inflation continues to run above the Fed’s 2% target, with rising Oil prices increasing upside risks. This has dampened expectations for near-term rate cuts, reinforcing a higher-for-longer policy outlook. Markets will therefore focus on guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

A hawkish tone could further support the US Dollar, while any signal that the Fed remains open to rate cuts later this year may limit the Greenback’s upside. However, downside in the US Dollar is likely to remain limited amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

Although the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish outlook continues to provide underlying support for the Aussie, the latest inflation data showed Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 4.6% in March from 3.7% in February, but still below expectations of 4.7%.

Currency Hedger April 29, 2026 No Comments

Aussie Holds Firm on Hot CPI Print

The Australian dollar edged down to below $0.72, but stayed near four-year highs as a sharp rise in inflation kept expectations of a rate hike next week. Headline inflation jumped to 4.6% annually in March, slightly below forecasts of 4.7%, but stayed above the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target and marked the highest since monthly CPI data began in 2025.

The annual trimmed-mean measure held at 3.3%, in line with expectations as higher fuel costs stemming from Middle East supply disruptions added to already elevated price pressures. In the absence of a major upside inflation surprise, the Aussie attracted some sellers amid cautious risk sentiment due to persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Still, markets priced in increased odds of a 25 bp rate hike next week. In the US and other G-7 economies, policymakers are likely to hold rates steady this week while monitoring the risk of rising energy costs fueling inflation, as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed amid US-Iran tensions.

Currency Hedger April 28, 2026 No Comments

AUD/JPY holds losses below 114.50 as BoJ keeps rate steady at 0.75%

AUD/JPY loses ground to around 114.30 in Tuesday’s Asian session.
BoJ kept the policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at its April policy meeting on Tuesday.
The Australian March CPI inflation report will be the highlight later on Wednesday.

The AUD/JPY cross declines to near 114.30 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate decision. Traders will closely monitor Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference for any hints about the next move.

As widely expected, the BoJ decided to hold the short-term interest rate steady at 0.75% after concluding its two-day monetary policy review meeting on Tuesday. According to the BoJ’s policy statement, the central bank will continue to raise interest rates in accordance with developments in the economy, prices, and financial markets. It said wages and prices may face upward pressure more than what the output gap suggests. The BoJ will scrutinize the timing and pace of policy adjustment with a close eye on economic and price impact from Middle East war developments.

The attention will shift to the BoJ’s Governor Kazuo Ueda press conference for more clues about the interest rate path in Japan. Any hawkish comments from policymakers could lift the JPY and act as a headwind for the cross.

On the Aussie front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is anticipated to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) for a third consecutive time at its next meeting on May 5, 2026. Markets are pricing in a 74% chance of another 25-basis-point increase to 4.35% in the May policy meeting, according to Reuters.

Traders will take more cues from the Australian March Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on Wednesday for fresh impetus. The headline CPI is projected to show a rise of 4.7% YoY in March, compared to 3.7% in February. Any signs of hotter inflation in Australia could lift the Aussie against the JPY.

Currency Hedger April 27, 2026 No Comments

AUD/USD rallies to 10-day highs near 0.7200 amid US Dollar weakness

AUD/USD rallies more than 0.5% to reach session highs near 0.7200.
Moderate hopes of a US-Iran peace deal are feeding a mild risk appetite on Monday.
The US Fed decision and Australian CPI will gather investors’ focus this week.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) accelerates its rally against a weak US Dollar (USD) on Monday, reaching 10-day highs at 0.7190 at the time of writing, after bouncing from lows near 0.7100 last week. News of a peace proposal from Tehran and hopes that high energy prices will boost inflation and force the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike rates next week are keeping the Aussie buoyed.

A report published by Axios earlier on Monday, citing a US official and sources related to the matter, affirmed that Tehran has sent a peace proposal to the US, offering to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and to postpone nuclear conversations to a later stage. This news helps sustain hopes of a negotiated end to the conflict and adds weight to the US Dollar.

Central banks return to the focus

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will also come into focus this week. The US central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on Wednesday and is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the 3.50%-3.75% rate.

The bank is also likely to hint at a steady policy for the next few months. The rising inflationary pressures stemming from Iran’s war have prompted markets to dial down hopes of interest rate cuts this year, and the CME Fed Watch Tool shows that futures markets price a 66% chance that monetary policy will remain on hold by the end of the year. Investors were betting on between one and two rate cuts before the war started.

Before that, Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will provide further insight about next week’s RBA decision. Inflation is expected to have accelerated in the first month of the US-Iran war, boosting speculation that the central bank might hike interest rates for the third consecutive time in May. These rumours are keeping the Aussie Dollar close to multi-year highs against the US Dollar.