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Trade of The Day: AUD/USD

  • The AUDUSD exchange rate opened today below the 10- and 30-day exponential moving averages (EMA10 – yellow, EMA30 – light purple).
  • Core PCE inflation in the US rose to 3.3% YoY in April (previously 3.2% YoY).
  • The swap market-implied probability of a US interest rate hike in 2026 increased from 82% to 86% over the course of the week.

Recommendation:

  • Position: Short (SELL) on AUDUSD at market price
  • Target Price (Take Profit; TP): 0.70550 (TP1), 0.70170 (TP2)
  • Stop Loss (SL): 0.72100

Source: xStation5

Opinion

The AUDUSD pair erased some of its losses from today’s session following the release of the latest US inflation data, which turned out slightly softer than expected. Core PCE increased in line with expectations to 3.3% year-on-year, while on a month-on-month basis, prices rose by 0.2% (against a 0.3% forecast). However, the lack of a negative inflation surprise is not exactly “good news” for monetary policy, especially since inflation remains in an upward trend and is proving to be stickier than assumed. The Fed’s narrative is also becoming increasingly hawkish. Recent remarks from Cook, Goolsbee, Kashkari, and Jefferson unanimously emphasize the growing and materializing upside risks to inflation, along with a clear readiness to hike interest rates should this trend continue.

Furthermore, the AUDUSD’s reaction to the optimism generated by hopes of a truce between Iran and the US last week was quite moderate, and the gains were insufficient to push the price above the 10- and 30-day exponential moving averages. Therefore, risk-sensitive currencies (including the AUD) can be expected to remain under heavy pressure until real progress is made in the Middle East, and a potential rebound in reaction to the end of the war is unlikely to trigger a rapid return to an upward trend for the pair. The options market is also pointing to further declines for AUDUSD. The 1-week and 1-month risk reversal indicators sit below zero, showing that options betting on the depreciation of the AUD dominate the market. In other words, the market is systematically hedging against further declines in AUDUSD consistently across various time horizons.

Methodology

The recommendation was prepared based on the technical analysis of the AUDUSD chart and the fundamental analysis of the discussed economies (monetary policy in Australia and the US). The direction of the recommendation was determined using moving averages and market expectations regarding central bank policies. Take Profit and Stop Loss levels were set using the Fibonacci retracement of the last upward wave and price action (TP1 at the 50.0 Fibo level, TP2 between the D1 interval EMA100 and the 61.8 Fibo level, and SL at the support from which the price rebounded before breaking the last peak).

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AUD/USD Price Forecast: On verge of Head and Shoulder breakdown

  • AUD/USD tumbles to near 0.7100 as the Australian Dollar underperforms due to multiple headwinds.
  • The exchange of attacks between the US and Iran has dented optimism towards a peace deal.
  • Slower-than-projected Australian CPI growth in April has forced traders to pare hawkish RBA bets.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) slumps over 0.5% to near 0.7100 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The Aussie par slumps as the antipodean underperforms its peers due to risk-off market sentiment and diminished hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) bets.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.30%0.38%0.05%0.16%0.55%0.51%0.32%
EUR-0.30%0.08%-0.28%-0.15%0.25%0.22%0.02%
GBP-0.38%-0.08%-0.34%-0.23%0.17%0.15%-0.07%
JPY-0.05%0.28%0.34%0.11%0.51%0.46%0.28%
CAD-0.16%0.15%0.23%-0.11%0.41%0.36%0.16%
AUD-0.55%-0.25%-0.17%-0.51%-0.41%-0.02%-0.24%
NZD-0.51%-0.22%-0.15%-0.46%-0.36%0.02%-0.21%
CHF-0.32%-0.02%0.07%-0.28%-0.16%0.24%0.21%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Market sentiment turns favorable for safe-haven assets as Iran has retaliated against the United States (US) attacks near Bandar Abbas airport by striking its military bases in the Gulf region. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.3% higher, slightly above 99.50. S&P 500 futures and all major Asian stock markets are bleeding, as of writing, indicating a significant dent in investors’ risk appetite.

Hawkish RBA prospects have squeezed as the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April showed that inflationary pressures cooled down at a faster-than-expected pace. Month-on-month CPI arrived at 0.4%, lower than 0.6% estimates and the previous reading of 1.1%. On an annualized basis, the Australian CPI grew at a moderate pace of 4.2% against expectations of 4.4% and the March reading of 4.6%.

Following the Australian CPI data, markets now imply almost no chance of a June move, while the probability of an August hike has more than halved to 40%, Reuters reports.

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USD trades significantly lower at around 0.7100 as of writing. The near-term tone of the pair is bearish as it holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 0.7158. Also, the Head and Shoulder (H&S) formation backs a bearish bias.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 43, indicating subdued momentum rather than oversold conditions, hinting that sellers still retain the upper hand.

Looking down, the pair could enter a fresh leg of decline if it breaks below the neckline of the H&S formation at around 0.7070. Major support zones will be 0.7050 and the April 13 low around 0.6990. On the topside, the 20-day EMA at 0.7158 is the first resistance to beat for the bulls to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way for a more sustained recovery towards 0.7200.

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Australian Dollar: Softer CPI backs RBA pause – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur contrasts the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), noting Australia has already hiked three times and that April Consumer Price Index (CPI), including a monthly fall and lower annual rate, supports a pause. While trimmed-mean inflation is a mild warning, its three‑month average near target should give the RBA confidence to hold and monitor developments around Iran.

Inflation data justify holding rates

“Unlike the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already raised its key interest rate three times in recent months. However, this morning’s inflation data confirms our assessment that a pause is now likely to follow.”

“Prices fell unexpectedly in April, declining by 0.1% month-over-month. This was driven by a drop in transportation costs, partly due to falling gasoline prices compared to the previous month. After rising by 33% in March, prices fell by 7% in April.”

“Overall, prices are of course still significantly higher than before the Iran conflict. But at least this development provides some relief. As a result, the annual rate also fell from 4.6% to 4.2% – though it remains well above the RBA’s target of 2-3%.”

“The central bank’s preferred measure of inflation, trimmed-mean inflation – which excludes outliers at both the high and low ends of the calculation – rose slightly compared to the previous month. This is certainly a small warning sign.”

“However, over the last three months, trimmed-mean inflation averaged just 3.1% on an annualized basis, only slightly above the central bank’s target. This should give the RBA the confidence to let the already implemented interest rate hikes take effect for now and to wait and see how the situation in Iran develops.”

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AUD/NZD Price Forecast: Retreats below 1.2200 on hawkish RBNZ, weak Australian data

  • AUD/NZD retreats from 1.2286 highs to levels below 1.2200.
  • A hawkish RBNZ and soft Australian CPI figures are hammering the Aussie.
  • The pair approaches the neckline of a Double Top pattern.


The Aussie Dollar (AUD) is dropping sharply against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on Wednesday. The pair has lost more than 0.8% so far today, hitting session lows at 1.2173, hammered by a combination of a hawkish hold by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and softer-than-expected Australian inflation figures.

The RBNZ left interest rates on hold, as widely expected earlier on Wednesday, but a split monetary policy committee hints at upcoming rate hikes. RBNZ Governor, Anna Breman, who used her casting vote to hold on Wednesday, affirmed that policymakers are concerned about second-round effects on inflation, and that further “OCR increases are likely at coming meetings.”

In Australia, April’s Consumer Prices Index (CPI) showed softer-than-expected inflationary pressures. These figures provide some leeway for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to wait and see for a clearer assessment of the consequences of the war in Iran, and have prompted investors to pare back hopes of an August rate hike.

Technical Indicator: A potential double top warns of a trend shift

Chart Analysis AUD/NZD


AUD/NZD has lost more than 120 pips on Wednesday and is showing signs consistent with a trend shift. A bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart, and a potential double top at the 1.2285 area are clear indicators that bulls are giving up.

The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to the mid-30s, hinting at persistent downside pressure. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned slightly negative, reinforcing the notion that sellers are taking control.

Immediate support is located at the 1.2125-1.2135 area, where May 7, 12, and 21 lows meet the neckline of the mentioned double top pattern. Further down, the April 9 and 14 lows, around 1.2045, would come into focus. The double top’s measured target is right below the 1.2000 psychological level. On the upside, in the unlikely case of a break above 1.2285, the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the April-May rally lies at the 1.2380 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.13%-0.04%0.03%0.05%0.30%-0.65%-0.11%
EUR0.13%0.09%0.15%0.17%0.39%-0.52%0.01%
GBP0.04%-0.09%0.04%0.08%0.32%-0.60%-0.06%
JPY-0.03%-0.15%-0.04%0.02%0.25%-0.67%-0.12%
CAD-0.05%-0.17%-0.08%-0.02%0.23%-0.67%-0.14%
AUD-0.30%-0.39%-0.32%-0.25%-0.23%-0.90%-0.35%
NZD0.65%0.52%0.60%0.67%0.67%0.90%0.53%
CHF0.11%-0.01%0.06%0.12%0.14%0.35%-0.53%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

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Australian Dollar: Crowded longs face event risk – Societe Generale

Kit Juckes at Societe Generale highlights that speculative positioning in the Australian Dollar is the largest long since 2013, built despite deteriorating domestic data and lower yields. He argues AUD could rally on a credible cease-fire extension but warns much good news is already priced, suggesting better relative value in AUD/NZD and potential NZD/USD shorts.

Australian Dollar positioning looks stretched

“The currency that is most striking in the CFTC chart, is the AUD.”

“The market built up the biggest long AUD position since 2013, growing it in recent weeks despite a wobble at the start of April.”

“5y yields have fallen by 30bp in recent weeks as the economic outlook has deteriorated and end-2026 rate-pricing has dropped by 20bp this month.”

“If a credible cease-fire extension is agreed, AUD seems bound to rally, but there is a lot of good news hard-wired rather than baked into the current AUD/USD price.”

“AUD/NZD would be more attractive, if it weren’t for the fact that this pair is up 13% in the last year.”

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Australian Dollar loses traction as US launches self-defence strikes on southern Iran

  • AUD/USD loses ground to near 0.7165 in Tuesday’s Asian session. 
  • US military said it carried out new strikes on southern Iran. 
  • Traders brace for Australia’s April CPI inflation report, which is due on Wednesday. 

The AUD/USD pair trades in negative territory around 0.7165 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) declines against the US Dollar (USD) as renewed tensions between the US and Iran weigh on risk-sensitive currencies.  

The US Central Command said on Monday that it launched new strikes on southern Iran, targeting Iranian missile sites and boats attempting to place mines, per BBC. The US military added that the strikes were taken in “self-defense” and were designed “to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces.”

The attacks came as Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baqai said some progress has been made in talks with the US, but a deal to end the conflict “is not imminent.” Uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace negotiations could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and drag the pair lower in the near term. 

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report will be released on Wednesday. The headline CPI is expected to show a rise of 4.4% YoY in April, compared to 4.6% in March. On a monthly basis, the CPI is projected to show an increase of 0.6% in April, versus 1.1%. Any signs of hotter inflation in Australia could lift the Aussie against the USD. 

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AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains momentum, holding bullish bias above 100-day EMA

  • AUD/JPY strengthens to near 113.80 in Monday’s early European session. 
  • The cross keeps a constructive bias above the 100-day EMA.  
  • The immediate resistance level emerges at 114.72; the initial support level to watch is 113.65. 

The AUD/JPY cross gains ground to around 113.80 during the early European trading hours on Monday. Hopes of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz buoyed risk appetite, supporting the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). 

The United States (US) and Iran signaled progress in efforts to resolve the conflict, but key details of a framework agreement are still under negotiation, and a US official said it could take a few more days to finalize. However, US President Donald Trump stated that a deal is close, but the US blockade on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz would “remain in full force” until an agreement was signed. 

On the other hand, markets slash the chance of more interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) after a surprise rise in the jobless rate. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the Aussie. Unemployment Rate in Australia climbed to 4.5% in April, up from 4.3% in March. This figure registered the highest in about four and a half years. 

The odds of a rate hike at the RBA’s next meeting dropped to just 3%, from 13% before the release of the employment report, according to financial market pricing provided by Westpac.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY maintains a constructive bullish bias as the spot holds above the Bollinger middle band and the 100-day moving average. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers near 54, suggesting steady but tempered upside momentum rather than a blow-off phase.

On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the upper Bollinger band at 114.72, where a clear break would open the door to further gains within the broader uptrend. On the downside, initial support is seen at the day’s open pivot around the Bollinger middle band at 113.65, followed by the lower band near 112.53. Deeper pullbacks would likely lean on the 100-day moving average around 110.80 to preserve the broader bullish structure.

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AUD/USD Price Flirts with 200-SMA on H4, just above mid-0.7100s amid weaker USD

  • AUD/USD kicks off the new week on a positive note as US-Iran deal hopes weigh on the USD.
  • Bets for a rate hike by the Fed in 2026 could limit deeper USD losses and cap gains for the pair.
  • The technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for a further appreciating move.

The AUD/USD pair opens with a modest bullish gap at the start of a new week and sticks to intraday gains above mid-0.7100s through the Asian session. The latest optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal undermines the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and assists spot prices to move away from the lowest level since April 14, touched last week.

However, the US and Iran remained at odds over key issues, including blockades on the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s nuclear program, keeping a lid on the market optimism. This, along with bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates by the end of this year, should help limit deeper USD losses and cap further gains for the AUD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices now seem to have found acceptance above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent corrective pullback from the vicinity of the highest level since June 2022, touched earlier this month. Bulls now await a move beyond the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart before placing fresh bets.

Meanwhile, a mildly positive Relative Strength Index near 58 and a gently positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggest upside momentum is building. However, price action remains finely balanced, making it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond this key moving average before positioning for any further appreciation.

The subsequent move up is likely to confront immediate resistance at the 50.0% retracement near 0.7175, which is followed by the 61.8% level at 0.7197, with higher hurdles seen at 0.7230 and 0.7270. On the downside, a break below the 38.2% retracement at 0.7152 would expose the 23.6% level at 0.7124, ahead of the stronger structural support around 0.7079.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis AUD/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.31%-0.36%-0.21%-0.13%-0.46%-0.44%-0.31%
EUR0.31%-0.06%0.11%0.17%-0.16%-0.13%-0.02%
GBP0.36%0.06%0.17%0.23%-0.11%-0.06%0.03%
JPY0.21%-0.11%-0.17%0.08%-0.29%-0.26%-0.16%
CAD0.13%-0.17%-0.23%-0.08%-0.35%-0.32%-0.22%
AUD0.46%0.16%0.11%0.29%0.35%0.03%0.14%
NZD0.44%0.13%0.06%0.26%0.32%-0.03%0.10%
CHF0.31%0.02%-0.03%0.16%0.22%-0.14%-0.10%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).