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AUD/JPY Price Weakens to near 113.50, but broader uptrend remains intact

  • AUD/JPY drifts lower to near 113.50 in Friday’s early European session. 
  • Surprise rise in Australia’s Unemployment Rate will give RBA more reason to delay further rate hike at the June meeting. 
  • The constructive outlook of the cross prevails above the 100-day EMA, with neutral-to-mildly bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 113.65; the initial support level to watch is 112.50. 

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 113.50 during the early European session on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) softens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as markets slash the chance of more interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) after a surprise rise in the jobless rate. 

Australia’s Unemployment Rate jumped to 4.5% in April from 4.3% in March, the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday. This reading registered the highest in about four and a half years. The report will provide the Australian central bank with more reason to hold off on a fourth rate hike at its next meeting in June, which could weigh on the Aussie. 

The probability of a rate hike at the next meeting dropped to just 3%, from 13% before the release of the employment report, according to financial market pricing provided by Westpac.

On the other hand, softer Japanese inflation data could weigh on the JPY and act as a tailwind for the cross. Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.4% YoY in April, compared to 1.5% in March, the Japan Statistics Bureau revealed on Friday. 

Meanwhile, Japan’s core CPI climbed by 1.4% YoY in April, marking the slowest annual pace in four years.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds comfortably above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 110.70, keeping the broader bias constructive despite the latest pullback from recent highs. Price is now trading just under the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day SMA basis line, suggesting topside momentum has slowed but not broken, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 51 hints at neutral-to-mildly positive momentum rather than overbought conditions.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band around 113.65, with a break higher opening the way toward the May 14 high of 114.66. The next hurdle is seen at the upper Bollinger band near 114.83. On the downside, initial support emerges at the lower Bollinger band around 112.50, ahead of the April 13 low of 111.66. The key trend support is located at the 100-day SMA near 110.70, where buyers would be expected to defend the prevailing uptrend on deeper pullbacks.

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AUD/USD – Picks up above 0.7120 after finding support in the 0.7100 area

  • AUD/USD holds above 0.7100 after falling from 0.7174 highs on Wednesday.
  • An unexpected rise in Australian unemployment adds to the case for an RBA rate pause.
  • The pair is trading in a triangle pattern, with a bearish outcome favoured.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) gives away gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as soft Australian employment data cemented hopes that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will take a pause in the coming months after three consecutive rate hikes. The pair trades at 0.7126 at the time of writing, after bouncing from lows near 0.7100, but remains well below Wednesday’s highs, at 0.7174..

Australian unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in April, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, reaching its highest level since 2021, against expectations of a steady 4.3% rate. The jump in the jobless rate was due to an unexpected decline in net employment, which fell by 18.6K against the 17.5K increase expected.

Aussie’s weakness, however, is being tamed by a mild improvement in market sentiment as US President Donald Trump affirmed that Washington and Tehran would be in the final stages of a peace deal.

Technical Analysis: The pair is forming a small triangle pattern

AUD/USD Chart Analysis


AUD/USD trades at the lower band of the monthly trading range, with price action forming ang a small triangle pattern. Triangles are considered continuation patterns, and, in this case, would anticipate a bearish outcome.

Momentum indicators, in the 4-hour chart, are mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains capped below the 50 line, highlighting a mild bearish pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned marginally positive, hinting that bullish momentum is attempting to rebuild above recent lows.

Initial support is seen at the uptrend line around 0.7108, with additional protection emerging at the 0.7080 area (April 14, May 10 lows). A break below this band would expose an intraday support area at 0.7030.

Rallies, on the contrary, are likely to be tested in the area between the triangle top, near 0.7160, and Wednesday’s high, at the mentioned 0.7174 level. Further up, Monday’s high, at 0.7185, will also challenge bulls ahead of a previous support area, near 0.7215.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.01%-0.00%0.06%0.11%0.38%0.19%-0.02%
EUR0.00%-0.00%0.09%0.10%0.38%0.15%-0.02%
GBP0.00%0.00%0.09%0.11%0.40%0.17%-0.02%
JPY-0.06%-0.09%-0.09%0.02%0.33%0.04%-0.09%
CAD-0.11%-0.10%-0.11%-0.02%0.31%0.07%-0.14%
AUD-0.38%-0.38%-0.40%-0.33%-0.31%-0.23%-0.44%
NZD-0.19%-0.15%-0.17%-0.04%-0.07%0.23%-0.20%
CHF0.02%0.02%0.02%0.09%0.14%0.44%0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

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Australian Dollar: Labor data threatens RBA-driven gains – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes the Australian Dollar has retreated from a four-year high versus the US Dollar as weak Chinese data and soft domestic labor figures weigh. He highlights rising unemployment and fading support from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s earlier rate hikes, with policymakers now leaning toward a pause. Baur warns AUD support could taper if the hiking cycle is already over.

Weak jobs and RBA pause pressure AUD

“The Australian dollar has been on the defensive this week after climbing to a four-year high against the US dollar at 0.726 last Wednesday. But weak data on the Chinese economy at the start of the week dealt the first blow, and now labor market data released early this morning show that things aren’t going so well at home either.”

“In recent months, the AUD has benefited significantly from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy shift. While other G-10 central banks are still adopting a wait-and-see approach to the Iran conflict and rising inflation, the RBA has already raised interest rates three times in its last three meetings. However, the supportive effect these rate hikes have had on the AUD is likely to gradually fade.”

“In a speech this week, RBA Chief Economist Sarah Hunter sounded less hawkish than she had in recent months, and – based in part on the minutes from the latest monetary policy meeting released on Tuesday – it appears that the Australian central bankers are currently leaning toward a pause. They now want to wait and see and let the rate hikes take effect first.”

“Now, as mentioned, labor market data is quite volatile, and one shouldn’t overinterpret a single month’s figures. But signs are slowly mounting that the RBA may not just be taking a pause, but that this rate-hiking cycle has already come to an end. In that case, support for the AUD would taper off, and the AUD could come under pressure going forward.”

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AUD/USD remains subdued below 0.7150 following China’s data

  • Australian Dollar holds losses as China’s Retail Sales rose 0.2% YoY in April, against 2.0% expected and 1.7% prior.
  • Fed officials prioritized controlling inflation, suggesting further interest rate hikes remain necessary if price pressures persist.
  • The US Dollar finds safe-haven support as the US and Iran remain far from an agreement.

AUD/USD loses ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.7130 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair depreciates following key economic data from Australia’s close trading partner, China.

China’s Retail Sales rose 0.2% year-over-year (YoY) in April vs. 2.0% expected and 1.7% in March. Chinese Industrial Production climbed 4.1% YoY in the same period, compared to the 5.9% forecast and 5.7% seen previously. Meanwhile, the Fixed Asset Investment came in at -1.6% year-to-date (YTD) YoY in April, weaker than the expected increase of 1.6%. The March reading was a rise of 1.7%.

The AUD/USD pair also loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) rises on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) shifting toward a more aggressive policy stance on inflation. Several Fed officials recently emphasized that controlling inflation is their top priority, even suggesting that further interest rate hikes could be necessary if price pressures persist. Financial markets have sharply increased the likelihood of a December rate hike to nearly 48%, up significantly from just 14% a week prior, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Meanwhile, the Greenback is receiving support from increased safe-haven demand amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts. The United States (US) and Iran remain far from an agreement to end weeks of fighting and reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping route.

US President Donald Trump escalated tensions by publicly warning Iran to make progress or face new consequences. Because the Strait remains effectively closed, global oil prices are continuing to climb, which places a heavy economic burden on countries that rely heavily on energy imports. Global investor anxiety is heightened further by warnings from Chinese leader Xi Jinping to President Trump that Taiwan could trigger direct clashes between their two economies.

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AUD/JPY – Tests ascending triangle bottom near 113.00

  • AUD/JPY may rebound toward the nine-day EMA of 113.72.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 50 hints at a current lack of directional conviction.
  • A break below the triangle would expose the 50-day EMA support at 112.44.

AUD/JPY extends its losses for the third successive day, trading around 113.20 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a potential busted pattern or bearish failure as the currency cross is positioned on the lower trendline of an ascending triangle. A sustained break below the lower trendline would indicate that buyers have lost momentum and sellers have taken control.

The AUD/JPY cross holds a mildly bullish near-term bias as it remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The pair is consolidating after its recent pullback, with price now caught between short-term resistance at the nine-day EMA and underlying trend support from the longer EMA, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 50 signals neutral momentum and hints at a lack of directional conviction for now.

On the upside, the AUD/JPY cross may rebound toward the nine-day EMA of 113.72. A break above the short-term average would support the currency cross to test the all-time high of 114.74, aligned with the upper boundary of the ascending triangle around 115.00.

A successful break below the triangle would expose the 50-day EMA at 112.44. Further declines would put downward pressure on the AUD/JPY cross to navigate the region around the three-month low at 108.79, recorded on March 31.

AUD/JPY: Daily Chart

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.02%0.08%0.10%0.00%0.22%-0.00%-0.02%
EUR-0.02%0.04%0.09%-0.02%0.20%-0.02%-0.05%
GBP-0.08%-0.04%0.02%-0.07%0.14%-0.07%-0.09%
JPY-0.10%-0.09%-0.02%-0.14%0.10%-0.15%-0.15%
CAD-0.01%0.02%0.07%0.14%0.22%0.00%-0.01%
AUD-0.22%-0.20%-0.14%-0.10%-0.22%-0.20%-0.20%
NZD0.00%0.02%0.07%0.15%-0.00%0.20%-0.01%
CHF0.02%0.05%0.09%0.15%0.01%0.20%0.01%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

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Australian Dollar weakens to near 0.7250, Trump–Xi talks in focus

  • AUD/USD softens to around 0.7250 in Thursday’s Asian session. 
  • US producer prices surprise with the largest rise in four years. 
  • Trump will hold a high-stakes meeting with Xi Jinping in China.

The AUD/USD pair loses ground to near 0.7250 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. Hotter-than-expected US inflation data provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). Traders will closely monitor the US President Donald Trump-Chinese President Xi Jinping summit in Beijing, and the release of the US April Retail Sales data later on Thursday. 

US producer prices posted their biggest increase in four years in April, underpinning the Greenback. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday revealed that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 6.0% YoY in April, compared to the 4.3% prior. On a monthly basis, the PPI inflation rose to 1.4% in April from 0.7% in March and much higher than the estimate of 0.5%.

Traders will take more cues from the US Retail Sales report on Thursday. The market expects the Retail Sales to show an increase of 0.5% MoM in April, compared to 1.7% in March. Any signs of hotter inflation reports could boost the USD and act as a headwind for the pair. 

Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that Trump arrived in Beijing for a state visit to China, where he will meet with Xi Jinping to discuss topics including trade and the Iran war. This is the first state visit to China by a US leader in nine years. Any positive developments surrounding the US-China talks could lift the China-proxy Aussie as China is a major trading partner to Australia. 

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AUD/USD – Holds steady below mid-0.7200s as bulls await Trump-Xi summit

  • AUD/USD remains on the back foot for the second straight day amid a bullish US Dollar.
  • The lack of follow-through selling warrants caution before positioning for further losses.
  • The bullish technical setup backs the case for the emergence of dip-buying at lower levels.

The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 0.7200 neighborhood and trades with a negative bias for the second straight day on Wednesday. Spot prices, however, lack bearish conviction and currently trade around the 0.7235 region as investors opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the Trump-Xi summit.

In the meantime, the US Dollar (USD) stands firm near its highest level in over one week amid reviving bets for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed), bolstered by Tuesday’s hot US consumer inflation figures. Furthermore, fading hopes for a US-Iran peace deal underpin the USD’s safe-haven status and contribute to capping the risk-sensitive Aussie. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish outlook continues to act as a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair.

Spot prices hold well above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping a mild bullish bias. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just above the neutral 50 line, hinting at modest upside pressure. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flattens slightly below zero and suggests only tentative momentum, making it prudent to wait for acceptance above mid-0.7200s before placing fresh bullish bets on the AUD/USD pair.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-period EMA around 0.7190, where a break would expose a deeper corrective pullback and weaken the current constructive tone. As long as the AUD/USD pair remains above this moving average, dips are likely to be contained, keeping the broader focus on whether buyers can sustain the recovery and build a more convincing advance in the sessions ahead.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis AUD/USD
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AUD/USD Forecast – Eyes nine-day EMA support near 0.7200

  • AUD/USD may test the 0.7277, the highest since June 2022.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index of 60 indicates resilient bullish momentum without reaching overbought territory.
  • Initial support lies at the nine-day EMA at 0.7214.

AUD/USD loses ground after two days of gains, trading around 0.7240 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair is moving upwards within the ascending channel, suggesting an ongoing bullish bias.

The AUD/USD pair holds a constructive bullish bias as it stays above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This positioning suggests the broader uptrend remains supported.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 60 points to firm but not overextended upside momentum, keeping buyers in near-term control as long as the price defends these moving average floors.

The AUD/USD pair may test the 0.7277, the highest since June 2022, recorded on May 6. A successful break above this level would support the pair to target the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.7460.

On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may test the nine-day EMA at 0.7214, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 0.7200. Further declines would expose the 50-day EMA at 0.7096. A break below the medium-term average would cause the bearish emergence and put downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair to navigate the region around the three-month low of 0.6833, which was recorded on March 30.

AUD/USD: Daily Chart

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.16%0.14%0.17%0.09%0.20%0.14%0.16%
EUR-0.16%-0.03%0.02%-0.10%0.05%-0.04%0.01%
GBP-0.14%0.03%0.02%-0.09%0.05%-0.02%0.02%
JPY-0.17%-0.02%-0.02%-0.11%0.00%-0.05%-0.03%
CAD-0.09%0.10%0.09%0.11%0.12%0.06%0.08%
AUD-0.20%-0.05%-0.05%-0.00%-0.12%-0.06%-0.04%
NZD-0.14%0.04%0.02%0.05%-0.06%0.06%0.02%
CHF-0.16%-0.01%-0.02%0.03%-0.08%0.04%-0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).