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Currency Talk – USDJPY, EURNZD, NZDUSD (16.04.2026)

Key takeaways

  • What is the technical outlook for USDJPY, EURNZD, and NZDUSD?

The Overbalance analysis aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures. USDJPY USDJPY has been trending upward for quite some time. Looking back to the lows in February, the largest correction was around 230 pips. The current correction is of a similar magnitude, which allows us to identify key support at the 158.10 level, derived from the 1:1 ratio. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as this level is not broken, the uptrend remains in effect. If it is broken, the correction could deepen, and the next significant support would be at 155.11, where the lower boundary of a larger 1:1 pattern with a range of approximately 530 pips is located.

USDJPY – H4 chart. Source: xStation EURNZD Since February, the EURNZD pair has been attempting to return to an uptrend. Currently, the price is hovering near a key support level at 1.9965, which corresponds to the lower boundary of a local 1:1 uptrend pattern formed from the low on February 3. According to the Overbalance methodology, holding this level could lead to the generation of another upward impulse. On the other hand, a break below it would open the way for declines. The bearish scenario would be confirmed if the price falls below 1.9855, where the upper boundary of the previous 1:1 downward pattern is located. In that case, a move toward the lows at 1.9540 would be possible.

EURNZD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation NZDUSD NZDUSD prices have recently negated the largest 1:1 corrective downtrend, which may suggest the possibility of a larger corrective uptrend or even a trend reversal. Currently, the key support zone is between 0.5835 and 0.5828. This zone stems both from the lower boundary of the local 1:1 upward pattern and from the polarity of the previously negated downward geometry. As long as the price remains above this zone, the base scenario remains bullish. Conversely, a drop below 0.5828 could signal a return to the downtrend.

NZDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.

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EUR/USD stands above 1.1800 amid hopes of new peace talks in Iran

  • EUR/USD hovers right above 1.1800, on track for a nine-day rally.
  • Rising hopes of the resolution of the Middle East conflict are hammering the safe-haven USD.
  • Trump threatened to fire Fed Chairman Jerome Trump if he does not step aside in May 15.

The (EUR) edges up against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, trading right above 1.1800 at the time of writing, on track for a nine-day rally. Hopes of a new round of negotiations between the US and Iran have prompted investors to move away from the safe-haven Dollar, propelling the pair to pre-war levels.

US President Donald Trump confirmed ongoing indirect negotiations with Tehran and affirmed in an interview that peace talks might resume in the coming days. He also affirmed that Israel and Lebanon will start “direct talks” soon, which would contribute to laying the ground for a steady peace agreement with Iran.

Apart from that, the US president has reignited his feud with Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, raising concerns about the central bank’s independence and adding pressure on the USD. The Republican threatened to oust him from his separate seat on the Board of Governors if he refused to vacate it at the end of his term as Fed Chair. Powell’s term as the central bank’s chief ends on May 15, but his term on the Board of Governors does not expire until 2028.

Technical Analysis: Resistance at 1.1825 is holding bulls

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

EUR/USD holds a constructive near-term bias, with technical indicators on the four-hour chart showing mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index hovers in bullish territory near 66 while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally into negative ground.

Bulls are struggling to break the late February lows in the 1.1825 area, which is closing the path towards the February 10 and 11 highs, near 1.1930.

On the downside, initial support is seen at Wednesday’s low, right above 1.1770, followed by the previous tops, between 1.1720 and 1.1740. Further down, a breach of the support area around 1.1650 (April 8, 12 lows) would put the current bullish trend into question.

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EUR/JPY – Weakens to near 187.50, while staying bullish above 100-day EMA

  • EUR/JPY softens to around 187.50 in Thursday’s early European session.
  • The cross keeps the bullish vibe above the key 100-day EMA.
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 187.95; the initial support level is seen at 186.20.

The EUR/JPY cross trades with mild losses near 187.50 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) amid intervention fears from Japanese authorities. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that she told the G7 to closely watch forex moves.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise its benchmark rate to 1.00% by end-June, with nearly two-thirds of economists in a Reuters poll predicting the move, and a hike in April or in June seen as equally likely amid uncertainty over the fallout from the Iran war.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY maintains a bullish near-term bias as price holds well above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). The pair is pressing the upper side of its recent volatility envelope, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just under overbought territory around 69, which suggests strong upward momentum but also hints that upside could become stretched if gains extend without a corrective pause.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the upper Bollinger Band of 187.95, en route to 188.50. On the downside, any pullback would likely find first demand near the April 13 low of 186.20. The next contention level is seen at the middle Bollinger Band of 185.00, with a deeper setback exposing the rising 100-day EMA at 182.75.

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EUR/CAD holds losses near 1.6200 as Canadian Dollar gains on risk-on mood

  • EUR/CAD weakens as the Canadian Dollar gains support despite softer oil prices.
  • Washington and Tehran are weighing an extension of their two-week ceasefire to gain more time for peace negotiations.
  • Middle East de-escalation boosts risk appetite, while falling oil prices ease inflationary pressures in the Eurozone.

EUR/CAD remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 1.6200 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross depreciates as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from easing Middle East conflict. However, the commodity-linked CAD may come under pressure from softer oil prices. It is worth noting that Canada is the largest crude exporter to the United States.

Reports indicated that Washington and Tehran are considering extending their two-week ceasefire to allow more time for peace negotiations, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under a dual blockade. However, Tehran may allow vessels to pass freely through the Omani side of the Strait if an agreement is reached to prevent a renewed escalation in hostilities.”

However, the Euro (EUR) also holds ground against its major peers amid improved market sentiment, driven by expectations of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. US President Donald Trump stated that the war was “close to over.” Reports, including those from Bloomberg, indicated speculation about a possible two-week extension of a ceasefire, although Trump dismissed the necessity of such a move, citing ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the conflict.

“Signs of de-escalation in the Middle East have boosted risk appetite, with declining oil prices helping to ease inflationary pressures in Eurozone. Policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) are inclined to keep interest rates unchanged at the April policy meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde said this week that the central bank must remain “completely agile” on rates, while emphasizing that it does not hold a bias toward tightening. Nevertheless, traders continue to view rate hikes as unavoidable, pricing in two quarter-point increases this year.

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Currency Talk – EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, AUD/USD (April 15, 2026)

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures. EURAUD The EURAUD exchange rate had been in a downtrend for quite some time. However, between March and April, we observed a significant upward correction that broke through the largest corrective pattern, suggesting a potential trend reversal. Ultimately, it turned out to be merely a corrective move within the downtrend, and the price is once again attempting to resume its decline. In the short term, the local 1:1 upward pattern was negated at the 1.6680 level, which was subsequently tested from the other side. Currently, the price is attempting to fall below the 1.6545 level, where the polarity of the previously negated 1:1 downward pattern is located. If this level holds as resistance, the base case scenario will be a continuation of the decline, potentially even toward 1.6135. Conversely, a return above 1.6680 could pave the way for a shift to an uptrend.

EURAUD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation EURGBP The EURGBP pair hit a local low around 0.8617, after which it attempted to generate a stronger upward move. Currently, however, there appears to be an issue with sustaining the rally. The price is oscillating around the key level of 0.8693, which previously acted as support. Retests of this level could result in its rejection and a return to declines. If the price remains above 0.8693, another upward impulse may be generated. Otherwise, the base scenario will be a retest of the lows around 0.8617.

EURGBP – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation AUDUSD Since late March, AUDUSD has been trading within a local uptrend. Two corrections of similar magnitude—around 100 pips—are visible, confirming a market structure consistent with the Overbalance methodology. A local uptrend has been in place since the low on March 30, and as long as the geometric pattern is not negated, further gains remain the base case scenario. In the event of a correction, the key support level is 0.7043, derived from the lower boundary of the 1:1 pattern.

AUDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.

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EUR/JPY steadies near 187.50 as improved oil prices weighs on Japanese Yen

  • EUR/JPY maintains its position as the Japanese Yen struggles on improving oil prices.
  • Oil prices gain as US–Iran talks face uncertainty after Trump said he isn’t considering extending the ceasefire.
  • The currency cross’s upside may be limited as the Euro weakens amid cautious sentiment following uncertainty over renewed Iran talks.

EUR/JPY moves little after registering little losses in the previous day, trading around 187.30 during the early European hours on Wednesday. The currency cross maintains its gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure, reflecting Japan’s heavy dependence on Middle East oil imports, as oil prices pare daily losses. However, the JPY may receive support from speculation surrounding potential Japanese intervention.

Crude oil prices gain as US-Iran further talks come into question after US President Donald Trump said in an ABC News interview on Wednesday that he is not considering extending the ceasefire, adding that he does not believe it will be necessary. “I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead. I really do,” Trump remarked.

Moreover, the US military also announced a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, tightening supply conditions and casting doubt over the next round of negotiations with Iran.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said policymakers must remain vigilant to the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict, warning that higher oil prices could weigh on Japan’s growth outlook.

The upside in the EUR/JPY cross may be limited as the risk-sensitive Euro (EUR) comes under pressure, with market sentiment turning slightly cautious after uncertainty emerged over renewed Iran talks.

However, The New York Post reported earlier that Trump had indicated talks could resume this week, while also opposing a 20-year suspension of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance pointed to “significant progress” in the initial round of Iran negotiations held in Pakistan, with follow-up discussions potentially expected within days.

The Euro (EUR) may find underlying support as markets continue to price in modest tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) at the April 30 meeting, along with expectations of two additional rate hikes this year. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank is well-positioned to manage developments related to Iran, while cautioning that it remains too early to dismiss the broader impact of the shock.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Steadies below 1.1800 near eight-week highs

  • EUR/USD may retest the ascending channel top near the eight-week high of 1.1834.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 64 indicates solid positive momentum.
  • The immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA at 1.1701.

EUR/USD remains calm after halting its seven-day winning streak, trading around 1.1790 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a bullish bias, as the pair is moving upwards within an ascending channel.

The EUR/USD pair maintains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The pair is pressing higher with the 14-day Relative Strength Index hovering near 64, suggesting firm positive momentum but edging towards overbought territory as price approaches nearby overhead levels.

On the upside, the EUR/USD pair may retest its immediate barrier at the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.1830, followed by the eight-week high of 1.1834, reached on February 23. A sustained break above this confluence resistance zone would lead the pair to explore the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, reached on January 27.

The EUR/USD pair may find the initial support at the nine-day EMA of 1.1701, followed by the nine-day EMA of 1.1654 and the lower ascending channel boundary around 1.1630. Further declines below the channel would expose the eight-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.

EUR/USD: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.07%0.00%0.11%0.06%-0.17%0.02%0.06%
EUR-0.07%-0.06%0.06%-0.01%-0.17%-0.05%-0.01%
GBP-0.00%0.06%0.13%0.09%-0.10%0.01%0.05%
JPY-0.11%-0.06%-0.13%-0.06%-0.21%-0.14%-0.08%
CAD-0.06%0.00%-0.09%0.06%-0.15%-0.05%-0.02%
AUD0.17%0.17%0.10%0.21%0.15%0.10%0.15%
NZD-0.02%0.05%-0.01%0.14%0.05%-0.10%0.05%
CHF-0.06%0.00%-0.05%0.08%0.02%-0.15%-0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/USD holds near 1.1800 due to rising optimism on US-Iran talks

  • EUR/USD may extend gains as the US Dollar weakens on optimism over renewed US–Iran talks.
  • Trump signaled talks may restart this week, with opposing a 20-year suspension of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.
  • ECB’s Lagarde said the bank is well-positioned on Iran risks but warned it’s too early to dismiss the shock.

EUR/USD remains flat after seven days of gains, trading around 1.1790 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair may extend its gains as the US Dollar (USD) weakened amid rising optimism that the United States (US) and Iran could soon resume negotiations, boosting hopes for a deal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The New York Post reported that US President Donald Trump signaled talks could restart this week, while also noting he opposes a 20-year suspension of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance highlighted “a lot of progress” in the initial round of Iran negotiations in Pakistan, with follow-up talks potentially scheduled within days

Meanwhile, softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data reinforced the view of easing inflation pressures. Notably, the services component, closely watched by the Federal Reserve (Fed), stood out, as it excludes direct energy and tariff-related effects.

The US PPI rose 0.5% month-over-month (MoM), well below the 1.2% consensus, while core PPI printed at 0.1% MoM versus expectations of 0.6%. On an annual basis, US PPI increased 4% in March, missing the 4.6% forecast and rising from February’s 3.4%, while Core PPI held steady at 3.8% YoY, unchanged from the prior month.

The Euro (EUR) finds support as easing energy prices provide relief to the Eurozone, given its status as a net importer of crude oil and natural gas. Markets are pricing modest tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) at the April 30 meeting, along with two additional rate hikes this year.

ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the central bank is well-positioned to manage developments related to Iran, while cautioning that it is too early to dismiss the impact of the shock.