EUR 12 - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger April 27, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD: EU policy risks and weaker German sentiment – BNY

BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that China has criticized the European Union’s (EU) proposed Industrial Accelerator Act as discriminatory, warning of possible countermeasures that could affect trade and investor confidence. He also notes a sharp deterioration in Germany’s consumer climate, with GfK sentiment at its weakest since February 2023, as higher energy prices and Iran-related geopolitical tensions weigh on the Euro area outlook and EUR/USD.

Policy frictions and soft German data

“China’s commerce ministry has criticized the EU for its proposed Industrial Accelerator Act. It formally submitted comments on April 24 outlining strong concerns over what it views as discriminatory provisions against foreign investors.”

“It contends that these measures violate core World Trade Organization principles, including most favored nation and national treatment rules, and could undermine fair competition and investor confidence.”

“Germany’s consumer climate for May deteriorated sharply, with the GfK headline indicator falling to -33.3 from -28.1 in April. This marks a 5.2-point decline and the weakest reading since February 2023.”

“Economic expectations deteriorated further to -13.7, reflecting concerns that geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, could derail Germany’s fragile recovery outlook.”

Currency Hedger April 27, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD holds supported as Dollar softens, central bank decisions loom

EUR/USD remains supported at the start of the week, helped by a weaker US Dollar amid geopolitical uncertainty.
German consumer sentiment deteriorates more than expected, reflecting current economic tensions.
Markets await the Fed and ECB monetary policy decisions later this week.

EUR/USD trades around 1.1740 on Monday, up 0.21% on the day, extending Friday’s rebound from the 1.1670 area, despite a more fragile macroeconomic backdrop in the Eurozone.

Latest data from Germany show a marked deterioration in consumer confidence. The GfK index falls to -33.3 in May, its lowest level in more than three years, from -28.1 previously and well below market expectations. This decline highlights the ongoing impact of geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices on European households. However, the Euro’s (EUR) reaction remains limited, as investors currently focus on external drivers.

The main market catalyst remains developments in the Middle East. Hopes for easing tensions between the United States (US) and Iran are supporting risk appetite, weighing on demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). According to reports from Axios, Tehran has submitted a new peace proposal that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, fostering cautious optimism. Nevertheless, negotiations remain stalled, and disruptions to Oil supply keep Crude prices near $100 per barrel, a level that could weigh on global growth.

In this context, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is declining, reflecting broad-based weakness in the Greenback. Expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged in the near term, alongside the possibility of a more dovish stance ahead, are also contributing to the downside pressure on the USD.

Investors now turn their attention to upcoming monetary policy decisions this week. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to follow suit on Thursday, although it may signal future tightening amid persistent inflationary pressures, particularly driven by energy prices. According to ING, a firm ECB message regarding a potential rate hike could help keep the Euro supported in the short term.

Overall, despite weakening European fundamentals, EUR/USD dynamics remain primarily driven by external factors, particularly US Dollar movements and geopolitical developments.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.20%	-0.19%	-0.16%	-0.44%	-0.51%	-0.56%	-0.10%
EUR	0.20%		0.02%	0.04%	-0.24%	-0.27%	-0.34%	0.10%
GBP	0.19%	-0.02%		0.02%	-0.28%	-0.32%	-0.39%	0.08%
JPY	0.16%	-0.04%	-0.02%		-0.28%	-0.35%	-0.41%	0.09%
CAD	0.44%	0.24%	0.28%	0.28%		-0.06%	-0.12%	0.34%
AUD	0.51%	0.27%	0.32%	0.35%	0.06%		-0.04%	0.43%
NZD	0.56%	0.34%	0.39%	0.41%	0.12%	0.04%		0.45%
CHF	0.10%	-0.10%	-0.08%	-0.09%	-0.34%	-0.43%	-0.45%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger April 27, 2026 No Comments

EUR/GBP – Hesitation above 0.8655 with bears still in control

EUR/GBP bounced up from lows near 0.8650 but remains capped below 0.8670 so far.
Weak German consumer confidence data has weighed on the Euro across the board.
Technical indicators show a waning bearish pressure.

The Euro (EUR) is trimming some losses against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday after finding support at the 0.8655 area late last week. Upside attempts, however, remain capped below a previous support area at 0.8670 so far, which leaves the broader bearish trend in play for now.

Data from Germany released earlier on Monday revealed that consumer confidence for May, as measured by the GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, deteriorated to its weakest level since February 2023, amid the consequences of the war in Iran. The impact of these figures on the Euro, however, has been cushioned by a mild risk appetite, fuelled by news of ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran to end the Middle East conflict. This is keeping the Euro and the Pound moderately positive against the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).

Technical Analysis: Bears are losing momentum

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart shows the EUR/GBP trading within a bearish channel, although Friday’s upper low and a bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest that sellers might be losing momentum.

The RSI has been trending higher, although it is still below the 50 midline, highlighting a mild bearish pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is flat near the zero line, pointing to a lack of strong directional momentum, altogether showing an indecisive market.

Bulls would need to confirm above the area around 0.8685 (April 8, 14 lows, and April 24 high) to clear the path towards trendline resistance, now at 0.8705. Key support is at the confluence of Thursday and Friday’s lows, between 0.8655 and 0.8660, and the channel bottom, at 0.8650. Further down, the next target is the March 24 and 26 lows near 0.8635.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.21%	-0.16%	-0.16%	-0.40%	-0.49%	-0.51%	-0.11%
EUR	0.21%		0.08%	0.07%	-0.19%	-0.26%	-0.29%	0.10%
GBP	0.16%	-0.08%		0.00%	-0.24%	-0.34%	-0.37%	0.04%
JPY	0.16%	-0.07%	0.00%		-0.23%	-0.34%	-0.38%	0.08%
CAD	0.40%	0.19%	0.24%	0.23%		-0.10%	-0.14%	0.29%
AUD	0.49%	0.26%	0.34%	0.34%	0.10%		-0.01%	0.39%
NZD	0.51%	0.29%	0.37%	0.38%	0.14%	0.01%		0.41%
CHF	0.11%	-0.10%	-0.04%	-0.08%	-0.29%	-0.39%	-0.41%

Currency Hedger April 27, 2026 No Comments

EUR/JPY Tests nine-day EMA support near 186.50

EUR/JPY may explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 60 signals positive momentum without extreme conditions.
The immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 186.75.

EUR/JPY inches lower after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around 186.70 during Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross is positioned within the ascending channel, signaling an ongoing bullish bias.

The EUR/JPY cross holds a bullish near-term bias as it consolidates above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), respectively. The currency cross is hovering just under the recent highs, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 60, suggesting positive but not extreme momentum that keeps the door open for another push higher while dips remain contained.

The EUR/JPY cross may advance toward the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17. Further advances above this level would support the currency cross to explore the region around the upper boundary of the channel, around 189.70.

On the downside, the immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 186.75, aligned with the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 186.60. A sustained break below the channel would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the 50-day EMA at 184.94.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.06%	-0.07%	-0.10%	-0.03%	-0.30%	-0.17%	-0.02%
EUR	0.06%		0.02%	-0.04%	0.03%	-0.22%	-0.09%	0.04%
GBP	0.07%	-0.02%		-0.04%	0.02%	-0.22%	-0.09%	0.04%
JPY	0.10%	0.04%	0.04%		0.08%	-0.20%	-0.09%	0.11%
CAD	0.03%	-0.03%	-0.02%	-0.08%		-0.27%	-0.16%	0.01%
AUD	0.30%	0.22%	0.22%	0.20%	0.27%		0.14%	0.28%
NZD	0.17%	0.09%	0.09%	0.09%	0.16%	-0.14%		0.15%
CHF	0.02%	-0.04%	-0.04%	-0.11%	-0.01%	-0.28%	-0.15%

Currency Hedger April 27, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD Price Bounces back to near 1.1730 as 20-day EMA remains supportive

EUR/USD turns positive around 1.1730 as the US Dollar gives back early gains.
Iran prepares to reopen the Hormuz if the US lifts the blockade on Iranian sea ports.
Investors await the Fed-ECB monetary policy announcements.

The EUR/USD pair claws back its early losses and turns positive around 1.1730 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The major currency pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) turns upside down.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.06% lower to near 98.45. The USD Index opened significantly higher around 99.35 as the United States (US) canceled a visit to Islamabad for another round of peace talks with Iran, despite Iran’s foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi visiting Pakistan to resume talks.

Meanwhile, Iran has offered a new proposal to the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war that includes putting off nuclear negotiations, according to Axios, Bloomberg reported. The report shows that nuclear talks would come later, only after a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz were lifted. This indicated Iran’s readiness to end the almost two-month-long conflicts in the Middle East.

This week, investors brace for high volatility in the major currency pair as both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are scheduled to announce monetary policies on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades marginally higher at around 1.1730 as of writing. The pair holds a constructive near-term bias as it trades above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1696, suggesting buyers retain control after reclaiming this dynamic support.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54.9 sits moderately above the 50 line, hinting at firm but not overstretched bullish momentum as price pushes deeper into the upper half of the recent Fibonacci retracement grid.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1749; a sustained break higher would expose the 61.8% retracement at 1.1828, followed by 1.1941 and the cycle high region near 1.2085. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-day EMA at 1.1696, with additional protection at the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1670; a deeper pullback would bring the 23.6% retracement at 1.1572 into view ahead of the structural floor around 1.1413.

Currency Hedger April 24, 2026 No Comments

Trade of The Day – EUR/USD

Facts: The pair bounced off the key technical support near 1.1660 Mid-term trend remains upward Recommendation: Trade: Long position on EURUSD at market price Target: 1.1830, 1.1900 Stop: 1.1600

Opinion : EURUSD has been trading in an upward trend recently. Looking at the H4 interval, one can see that the recent downward correction reached the key support, where buyers appeared .The area 1.1660-1.1670 is marked with previous price reactions, 200-period moving average, as well as lower limit of 1:1 structure. According to the classic technical analysis and Overbalance methodology, continuation of the upward move looks to be the base case scenario. We recommend going long EURUSD at market price with two targets: 1.1830 and 1.1900. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 1.1600. Source: xStation5

Currency Hedger April 24, 2026 No Comments

EUR/GBP remains stalled below 0.8680 following strong UK Retail Sales data

EUR/GBP recovery from 0.8654 lows remains capped below 0.8680.
UK Retail Sales beat expectations in March, but mainly due to fuel sales.
The stalemate in Iran keeps the EUR and the GBP vulnerable against the US Dollar.

The Euro (EUR) remains practically flat against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, trading at 0.8675 at the time of writing, with resistance at the 0.8680 area capping Thursday’s rebound from 0.8654 lows. The strong UK retail consumption data, which has shown a larger-than-expected rebound in March, has failed to make any significant impact on the pair so far.

Data released by National Statistics on Friday revealed that UK Retail Sales rose by 0.7% in March, following a 0.6% contraction in February, and beating expectations of a 0.2% gain. The core Retail Sales, excluding fuel and automobile sales, however, rose at a modest 0.2% pace in March, in line with the market expectations, also after a 0.6% decline in the previous month.

Higher energy costs are a concern for UK businesses and consumers

On Thursday, preliminary UK business activity showed that both the manufacturing and services sectors continued to expand at healthy levels, but costs reached their highest levels since records began, clouding the outlook for future economic activity.

Later in the day, the GfK Consumer Confidence index deteriorated to its lowest levels in three years. UK consumers have grown more pessimistic, wary that prices will continue growing amid the energy shock triggered by Iran’s war and that mortgage costs will increase, assuming that the Bank of England (BoE) will hike interest rates. These figures hurt the Pound and provided some support to a weak Euro.

In Europe, the focus on Friday is on the German IFO business climate data, which is also expected to have deteriorated in April, weighed by the higher costs of energy.

On the geopolitical front, the peace process between Iran and the US remains stalled while tensions between the two countries grow. Iran released footage of a seizure of a cargo vessel on the Strait of Hormuz, and US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy any ship mining the waterway. The escalating tensions and the absence of news about the new round of talks, scheduled for this week, are weighing both currencies against the safe-haven US Dollar.

Currency Hedger April 24, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD Forecast – Struggles below 1.1700 as bears await 200-EMA breakdown on H4

EUR/USD struggles to register any meaningful recovery and hangs near a two-week low.
Rising Iran tensions and reviving hawkish Fed bets underpin the USD, capping spot prices.
The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bears and backs the case for further losses.

The EUR/USD pair remains on the back foot through the Asian session on Friday and currently trades around the 1.1680-1.1675 region, just above a nearly two-week low touched the previous day.

Despite a temporary extension of the ceasefire, the lack of progress in peace talks due to the US naval blockade of Iranian ports tempers hopes for a durable de-escalation and keeps investors on edge. Furthermore, elevated Crude Oil prices revive inflationary concerns and fuel hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. This, in turn, assists the US Dollar (USD) in preserving its gains registered over the past three days and acts as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices currently hover around the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, keeping the immediate tone neutral after the recent slide from higher levels. However, Thursday’s breakdown below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent upswing from the March swing low favors the EUR/USD bears. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 32 suggests lingering downside pressure.

Meanwhile, the slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading reinforces a lack of clear bullish momentum despite the EMA support. In the meantime, any further weakness could find immediate support near the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1648. A convincing break below this zone would open the way toward the deeper retracement levels at 1.1600 and 1.1532, ahead of the cycle floor at 1.1445.

On the upside, initial resistance is located at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 1.1696, with a break there exposing the next hurdle at the 23.6% retracement at 1.1755. Nevertheless, the broader setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the downside, and any meaningful recovery attempt is more likely to get sold into.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.52%	0.18%	0.61%	0.18%	-0.01%	0.14%	0.70%
EUR	-0.52%		-0.33%	0.00%	-0.32%	-0.49%	-0.42%	0.18%
GBP	-0.18%	0.33%		2.17%	0.02%	-0.17%	-0.09%	0.52%
JPY	-0.61%	0.00%	-2.17%		-0.43%	-0.54%	-0.49%	0.11%
CAD	-0.18%	0.32%	-0.02%	0.43%		-0.08%	-0.07%	0.51%
AUD	0.01%	0.49%	0.17%	0.54%	0.08%		0.15%	0.68%
NZD	-0.14%	0.42%	0.09%	0.49%	0.07%	-0.15%		0.57%
CHF	-0.70%	-0.18%	-0.52%	-0.11%	-0.51%	-0.68%	-0.57%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).