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EUR/JPY – Holds above 186.50 to test nine-day EMA barrier

  • EUR/JPY may rise toward the all-time high of 187.95.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 58 indicates positive momentum without overbought conditions.
  • The primary support lies at the 50-day EMA at 184.86.

EUR/JPY inches higher after three days of gains, trading around 186.60 during Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross is positioned slightly below the ascending channel, signaling potential for a bearish reversal.

However, the EUR/JPY cross holds a constructive bullish bias as it remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while facing immediate friction at the nine-day EMA.

Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index sits around 58, comfortably above the midline yet below overbought territory, which suggests positive but not overstretched momentum that could favor further upside as long as the EUR/JPY cross holds over the underlying average.

The EUR/JPY cross is testing the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 186.69. A rebound back to the ascending channel would reinforce the bullish bias and support the EUR/JPY cross to test the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17. Further advances above this level would support the currency cross to explore the region around the upper boundary of the channel, around 189.40.

On the downside, further declines would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the 50-day EMA at 184.86.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.09%0.10%0.05%0.10%0.17%0.21%0.12%
EUR-0.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.08%0.12%0.04%
GBP-0.10%-0.01%-2.13%0.02%0.08%0.12%0.02%
JPY-0.05%0.00%2.13%0.03%0.10%0.14%0.03%
CAD-0.10%0.00%-0.02%-0.03%0.06%0.10%0.02%
AUD-0.17%-0.08%-0.08%-0.10%-0.06%0.04%-0.07%
NZD-0.21%-0.12%-0.12%-0.14%-0.10%-0.04%-0.09%
CHF-0.12%-0.04%-0.02%-0.03%-0.02%0.07%0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/USD rebounds as USD eases despite strong PMIs, Hormuz tensions in focus

  • EUR/USD rebounds as USD loses momentum despite upbeat US PMI data.
  • US-Iran tensions keep sentiment cautious, leaving EUR/USD driven by USD dynamics.
  • Oil-driven inflation fears prompt markets to price in a higher-for-longer interest rate outlook.

EUR/USD rebounds on Thursday after trading under pressure earlier in the day, as the US Dollar (USD) loses momentum, allowing the Euro (EUR) to recover from intraday lows despite upbeat US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data and cautious market sentiment amid US-Iran tensions.

At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1714, bouncing from an intraday low of 1.1679. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.57 after hitting an intraday high of 98.80.

The preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.0 in April, beating expectations and up from 52.3 in March, marking a 47-month high. The S&P Global Services PMI also improved to 51.3, above forecasts of 50.0 and up from 49.8, reaching a two-month high, with both coming above expectations.

Meanwhile, US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 214K in the week ending April 18, above the 212K forecast and up from 208K previously.

Despite the strong PMI data, the US Dollar failed to capitalize on the upside surprise, with the pullback likely technical in nature. However, the downside should remain limited amid ongoing US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled peace talks.

In the latest developments, US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that “we have total control over the Strait of Hormuz, no ship can enter or leave without the approval of the United States Navy.” He also added that he has ordered the Navy to “shoot any boat putting mines in Hormuz,” stating that the route is “sealed up tight” until Iran is able to make a deal.

Iran’s stance remains firm, with officials insisting that the US must remove the naval blockade, which Tehran views as a violation of the ceasefire and a key obstacle to resuming negotiations. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament and lead negotiator, said late on Wednesday that reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be “impossible” while the US and Israel committed “flagrant” breaches of the ceasefire.

As the Strait of Hormuz remains under a dual blockade, ongoing supply disruptions are keeping Oil prices elevated and inflation risks in focus. This is adding pressure on central banks to maintain a tighter monetary policy stance. Markets are increasingly pricing in potential rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB), while expecting the Federal Reserve (Fed)to keep interest rates on hold, a shift from earlier expectations of rate cuts.

Looking ahead, market sentiment is likely to remain sensitive to developments in the US–Iran conflict, with EUR/USD largely at the mercy of US Dollar dynamics.

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Currency Talk – EURCAD, EURUSD, GBPUSD

The Overbalance analysis aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures EURCAD Since March 10, EURCAD has been trading in an uptrend; however, during yesterday’s session, the local 1:1 bullish pattern was negated at the 1.6040 level. According to the Overbalance methodology, this may support a scenario involving a return to the downtrend. Further confirmation would be a return of the price below the 1.5948 level, i.e., back into the previous downtrend. On the other hand, a break above 1.6040 could restore the bullish scenario.

EURCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation EURUSD Since mid-March, the EURUSD has been trending upward, but in recent days we have seen a downward correction. The price is approaching key support at the 1.1650 level, which stems from the lower boundary of the local 1:1 pattern. A potential bounce at this point could lead to the generation of another upward impulse. Conversely, a sustained break below the 1.1650 level would open the way for a return to the downtrend.

EURUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation GBPUSD The GBPUSD pair is showing a situation very similar to that of the EURUSD. An uptrend has been in place since late March, but a correction has emerged in recent days. Should this correction deepen, the key support level remains at 1.3428. A break below this level could open the way for declines, which would be confirmed upon a drop below 1.3360—the polarity of the previously negated 1:1 downward geometric pattern.

GBPUSD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

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EUR/GBP posts modest gains above 0.8650 ahead of Eurozone, UK PMI releases

  • EUR/GBP posts modest gains near 0.8675 in Thursday’s early European session. 
  • The UK CPI inflation climbed to 3.3%YoY in March, driven by higher fuel costs due to the Iran war.
  • ECB’s Simkus said the central bank shouldn’t raise interest rates in April.

The EUR/GBP cross trades with mild gains around 0.8675 during the early European session on Thursday. However, the potential upside for the cross might be limited due to hot UK inflation data. Traders will keep an eye on the preliminary readings of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from the Eurozone and the United Kingdom (UK). 

Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday showed that the UK headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 3.3% YoY in March, compared to 3.0% in February. This increase marks the first official reflection of the US-Israel war with Iran on the UK’s cost of living. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy items, climbed 3.1% YoY in March, versus 3.2% prior, below the forecast of 3.2%.

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to hold the base rate at 3.75% at its next meeting on April 30, though the jump in inflation has fueled speculation of potential future hikes or delayed cuts.

The European Central Bank (ECB) officials are leaning toward leaving interest rates unchanged at the April policy meeting. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said on Wednesday that the central bank has ‘luxury’ to wait on interest rate rises. 

Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Gediminas Simkus reiterated the cautious stance regarding the ECB’s monetary policy, saying that while a rate hike in April is unlikely, the door remains open for policy tightening later this year. While a hold is expected in the April policy meeting, Barclays analysts anticipate the focus to shift toward potential 25 basis point (bps) hikes in June and September to combat an energy-driven inflation surge.

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When are the German/ Eurozone flash HCOB PMIs for April and how could they affect EUR/USD?

German/ Eurozone flash PMIs Overview

The preliminary German and Eurozone flash HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April is due for release today at 07:30 and 08:00 GMT, respectively.

Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms of their impact on the European currency and the related markets as well.

The flash Composite PMI for Germany is expected to have expanded again, but at a moderate pace due to a slowdown in both the manufacturing and the services sectors. The Composite PMI is seen arriving lower at 51.1 from 51.9 in March.

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI is expected to have fallen to 51.3 from the previous reading of 52.2. Meanwhile, the Services PMI is estimated to have dropped to 50.3 from the prior release of 50.9.

The forecast for the Eurozone flash Composite PMI for April also shows that the overall private sector output expanded at a moderate pace. Eurozone’s manufacturing output growth slowed down, and the services sector activity contracted. A figure below the 50.0 threshold is considered a contraction in the economic activity.

According to preliminary estimates, the Eurozone Composite PMI drops to 50.2 from 50.7 in March. The Manufacturing PMI is seen arriving lower at 50.8 from the prior release of 51.6. The Services PMI is expected to have contracted to 49.8 after slowing down to 50.2 in March.

How could German/ Eurozone flash PMIs affect EUR/USD?         

EUR/USD is marginally down to near 1.1700 during the early European trade on Thursday. The pair has corrected to near the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 1.1691, but sits north of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1666 of the 1.1408–1.2082 swing, suggesting underlying demand on shallow pullbacks.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls into the 40.00-60.00 zone after failing to hold above the 60.00 level, indicating balanced momentum with an upside bias.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1745; a daily close above this barrier would expose the 61.8% retracement at 1.1825, followed by 1.1938 and the cycle high region near 1.2082. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 20-period EMA at 1.1691, ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 1.1666; a deeper setback would bring the 23.6% level at 1.1567 into view, with more important structural support down at the 1.1408 swing low.

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EUR/USD: PMI signals and softer pair – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team highlights that Euro area April flash PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Index) are a key input ahead of the next European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, with Manufacturing PMI expected to drop below 50 while Services PMI holds at 50.2. The bank notes unusually high uncertainty around the indices and stresses that price components will be crucial. In markets, EUR/USD has slipped back below 1.1700.

Euro PMIs and weaker currency tone

“In the euro area, the April flash PMI report is released, a key input ahead of the ECB meeting. We expect the manufacturing PMI to show a steep decline from 51.6 to 49.6, driven by higher energy prices.”

“The surprise increase in the headline index in March was largely due to longer delivery times, which pose an upward risk to the headline number again. As such, monitoring the output sub-component will be crucial.”

“The services PMI fell more than expected in March to 50.2 and we expect it to remain at same level in April, as services are less directly hit than manufacturing. However, the uncertainty of the index is unusually high, so interpretation should be more cautious than usual.”

“Markets open on a weak foot with headlines from a locked-in stand-off over the SOH [Strait of Hormuz] dominating the news. Asian equities are down while US treasuries rise a couple of basis points this morning and EUR/USD falls back below 1.1700.”

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EUR/JPY falls to near 186.50 as risk aversion increases on Middle East uncertainty

  • EUR/JPY falls as the Euro weakens amid rising risk aversion from US-Iran truce uncertainty.
  • Iran fired on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, escorting two into Iranian waters on Wednesday.
  • Traders expect BoJ to hold rates this month, but signal possible policy normalization as early as June.

EUR/JPY remains subdued for the third successive day, trading around 186.60 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross loses ground as the risk-sensitive Euro (EUR) faces challenges amid increased risk aversion due to ongoing Middle East uncertainty.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran fired on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz and escorted two of them into Iranian waters on Wednesday. Iranian media reported that the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard was moving the vessels to Iran, marking a further escalation, although White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the seizures did not breach the terms of the ceasefire.

Iran continues to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, restricting transit and targeting vessels. Iranian parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that reopening the strait would be “impossible” while the United States (US) and Israel persist with what he described as “flagrant” ceasefire violations, including the US naval blockade. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said the current truce would remain in place indefinitely as Washington awaits a renewed peace proposal from Tehran.

The downside of the EUR/JPY cross could be restrained as the Japanese Yen (JPY) loses ground amid higher oil prices, reflecting Japan’s significant reliance on Middle East crude imports. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rises for the third consecutive day, trading around $93.30 per barrel at the time of writing.

In Japan, focus has turned to next week’s Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting as officials navigate uncertainty from the regional conflict. Traders expect the BoJ to leave interest rates unchanged this month, though it may hint at a potential shift back toward policy normalization as early as June.

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EUR/USD slips as Hormuz tensions persist despite Iran ceasefire extension

  • EUR/USD weakens as Strait of Hormuz tensions offset Iran ceasefire extension.
  • US naval blockade and stalled peace talks keep geopolitical risks elevated.
  • Elevated Oil prices and Fed outlook support the US Dollar, capping EUR/USD upside.

The Euro (EUR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, as ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz offset the impact of the US-Iran ceasefire extension, keeping the Greenback supported.

At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1712, extending losses for the second straight day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.57, near a one-week high.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it has seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian media. The development follows earlier reports of two vessels and a third ship coming under attack in the strategic waterway, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).

The escalation comes as the US naval blockade remains in place after US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran just hours before its expiry. The move reflects Washington’s strategy to maintain economic pressure on Tehran, while Iranian leaders have said the US must end the blockade if it wants to resume negotiations.

Trump said talks with Iran could take place as soon as Friday, according to the New York Post, while Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported that Tehran has not yet decided whether to participate.

With key differences remaining over nuclear and missile issues, markets view the ceasefire as a temporary pause in military escalation, suggesting the conflict may not end anytime soon. This is limiting downside in the US Dollar and capping EUR/USD’s upside after a corrective rebound earlier this month.

Meanwhile, Oil prices remain elevated, keeping inflation risks in focus and shaping central bank expectations. Investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates higher for longer, while markets are pricing in the possibility of European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes.

On the data front, the US economic calendar is largely empty on Wednesday, leaving markets driven by geopolitical headlines. In the Eurozone, preliminary Consumer Confidence for April dropped to -20.6 from -16.3 previously, marking its lowest level in over three years and pointing to weakening household sentiment amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices.