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EUR/JPY steadies near 187.50 as improved oil prices weighs on Japanese Yen

  • EUR/JPY maintains its position as the Japanese Yen struggles on improving oil prices.
  • Oil prices gain as US–Iran talks face uncertainty after Trump said he isn’t considering extending the ceasefire.
  • The currency cross’s upside may be limited as the Euro weakens amid cautious sentiment following uncertainty over renewed Iran talks.

EUR/JPY moves little after registering little losses in the previous day, trading around 187.30 during the early European hours on Wednesday. The currency cross maintains its gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure, reflecting Japan’s heavy dependence on Middle East oil imports, as oil prices pare daily losses. However, the JPY may receive support from speculation surrounding potential Japanese intervention.

Crude oil prices gain as US-Iran further talks come into question after US President Donald Trump said in an ABC News interview on Wednesday that he is not considering extending the ceasefire, adding that he does not believe it will be necessary. “I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead. I really do,” Trump remarked.

Moreover, the US military also announced a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, tightening supply conditions and casting doubt over the next round of negotiations with Iran.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said policymakers must remain vigilant to the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict, warning that higher oil prices could weigh on Japan’s growth outlook.

The upside in the EUR/JPY cross may be limited as the risk-sensitive Euro (EUR) comes under pressure, with market sentiment turning slightly cautious after uncertainty emerged over renewed Iran talks.

However, The New York Post reported earlier that Trump had indicated talks could resume this week, while also opposing a 20-year suspension of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance pointed to “significant progress” in the initial round of Iran negotiations held in Pakistan, with follow-up discussions potentially expected within days.

The Euro (EUR) may find underlying support as markets continue to price in modest tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) at the April 30 meeting, along with expectations of two additional rate hikes this year. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank is well-positioned to manage developments related to Iran, while cautioning that it remains too early to dismiss the broader impact of the shock.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Steadies below 1.1800 near eight-week highs

  • EUR/USD may retest the ascending channel top near the eight-week high of 1.1834.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 64 indicates solid positive momentum.
  • The immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA at 1.1701.

EUR/USD remains calm after halting its seven-day winning streak, trading around 1.1790 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a bullish bias, as the pair is moving upwards within an ascending channel.

The EUR/USD pair maintains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The pair is pressing higher with the 14-day Relative Strength Index hovering near 64, suggesting firm positive momentum but edging towards overbought territory as price approaches nearby overhead levels.

On the upside, the EUR/USD pair may retest its immediate barrier at the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.1830, followed by the eight-week high of 1.1834, reached on February 23. A sustained break above this confluence resistance zone would lead the pair to explore the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, reached on January 27.

The EUR/USD pair may find the initial support at the nine-day EMA of 1.1701, followed by the nine-day EMA of 1.1654 and the lower ascending channel boundary around 1.1630. Further declines below the channel would expose the eight-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.

EUR/USD: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.07%0.00%0.11%0.06%-0.17%0.02%0.06%
EUR-0.07%-0.06%0.06%-0.01%-0.17%-0.05%-0.01%
GBP-0.00%0.06%0.13%0.09%-0.10%0.01%0.05%
JPY-0.11%-0.06%-0.13%-0.06%-0.21%-0.14%-0.08%
CAD-0.06%0.00%-0.09%0.06%-0.15%-0.05%-0.02%
AUD0.17%0.17%0.10%0.21%0.15%0.10%0.15%
NZD-0.02%0.05%-0.01%0.14%0.05%-0.10%0.05%
CHF-0.06%0.00%-0.05%0.08%0.02%-0.15%-0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/USD holds near 1.1800 due to rising optimism on US-Iran talks

  • EUR/USD may extend gains as the US Dollar weakens on optimism over renewed US–Iran talks.
  • Trump signaled talks may restart this week, with opposing a 20-year suspension of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.
  • ECB’s Lagarde said the bank is well-positioned on Iran risks but warned it’s too early to dismiss the shock.

EUR/USD remains flat after seven days of gains, trading around 1.1790 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair may extend its gains as the US Dollar (USD) weakened amid rising optimism that the United States (US) and Iran could soon resume negotiations, boosting hopes for a deal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The New York Post reported that US President Donald Trump signaled talks could restart this week, while also noting he opposes a 20-year suspension of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance highlighted “a lot of progress” in the initial round of Iran negotiations in Pakistan, with follow-up talks potentially scheduled within days

Meanwhile, softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data reinforced the view of easing inflation pressures. Notably, the services component, closely watched by the Federal Reserve (Fed), stood out, as it excludes direct energy and tariff-related effects.

The US PPI rose 0.5% month-over-month (MoM), well below the 1.2% consensus, while core PPI printed at 0.1% MoM versus expectations of 0.6%. On an annual basis, US PPI increased 4% in March, missing the 4.6% forecast and rising from February’s 3.4%, while Core PPI held steady at 3.8% YoY, unchanged from the prior month.

The Euro (EUR) finds support as easing energy prices provide relief to the Eurozone, given its status as a net importer of crude oil and natural gas. Markets are pricing modest tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) at the April 30 meeting, along with two additional rate hikes this year.

ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the central bank is well-positioned to manage developments related to Iran, while cautioning that it is too early to dismiss the impact of the shock.

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Trade of The Day – EUR/USD

Facts:

  • EUR/USD is trading at 1.18 12:30 PM GMT on Tuesday, April 14, one hour ahead of the U.S March PPI release
  • The pair has managed to break above both the 200- and 100-session exponential moving averages (EMA200 and EMA100)
  • The daily RSI is above 65, while MACD remains supportive, and the pair is trading near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the downtrend that began on January 27

Recommendation:

  • Position: Short EUR/USD at market price
  • Take Profit: 1.16646
  • Stop Loss: 1.18881

View:

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has re-entered an upward trend, but the rebound—driven by growing optimism around a potential resolution of the U.S.–Iran conflict—has been unusually sharp. At the same time, conditions in global energy markets—on which Europe is more dependent than the U.S remain challenging. IEA President Fatih Birol indicated that normalization of supply from the Middle East could take up to two years due to the scale of infrastructure damage. As a result, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the late-January downtrend, further reinforced by prior price reactions (February consolidation), may act as a significant resistance level for EUR/USD. Uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is likely to persist, with Iran maintaining that the U.S. will not control this key trade route. In an escalation scenario, sentiment toward EUR/USD may gradually weaken, and even if the conflict ultimately resolves favorably for Europe, the pair could experience elevated volatility along the way. Also, multiple US macro data signals that price pressure is starting to rise across the economy, which may lead to still quite ‘hawkish’ Fed stance ahead of the summer. Technically, the daily RSI has risen to 65, while the hourly RSI stands at 79.1—both suggesting overbought conditions. Given this setup, a short position is favored, targeting 1.16646 with a protective stop at 1.18881. M

Source: xStation5

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EUR/USD climbs to 1.1765-1.1770, highest since March as Iran diplomacy hopes undermine USD

  • EUR/USD scales higher for the eighth straight day as the USD slides to a fresh low since early March.
  • Hopes for Iran diplomacy and Fed rate uncertainty undermine the USD’s reserve currency status.
  • Hormuz risks could keep a lid on the market optimism, limiting USD losses and capping spot prices.

The EUR/USD pair is seen building on the previous day’s strong intraday move up of over 100 pips and gaining some follow-through traction during the Asian session on Tuesday. This marks the eighth straight day of a positive move and lifts spot prices to a fresh high since early March, around the 1.1765-1.1770 region in the last hour.

Despite failed peace talks over the weekend, investors continue to move towards riskier assets amid hopes that the door for Iran diplomacy remains open. In fact, US Vice President JD Vance struck a cautiously optimistic tone on negotiations with Iran and suggested that meaningful progress has been made even as talks have yet to deliver a breakthrough. This, in turn, undermines the US Dollar’s (USD) reserve currency status and acts as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair.

Apart from this, the uncertainty over future interest rate moves by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) keeps the USD depressed near its lowest level since early March. That said, the instability surrounding shipping traffic from the Strait of Hormuz might keep a lid on the optimism and limit deeper USD losses. US President Donald Trump said that the U.S. Navy blockade of the strategic waterway has officially started and vowed to destroy Iranian warships that get near the blockade.

Iran responded with threats on all ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, keeping geopolitical risks in play. Adding to this, fears that the ceasefire that is currently holding could collapse, and that the war could resume, might lend some support to the USD and hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the EUR/USD pair. The fundamental backdrop, however, backs the case for an extension of the pair’s recent uptrend from the late March swing low.

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EUR/CAD caps near 1.6200 as Euro struggles due to risk-off mood

  • EUR/CAD stays silent as risk aversion rises following the failure of US–Iran peace talks.
  • Nordea analysts say resolving the US–Iran conflict wouldn’t remove the need for ECB tightening.
  • CAD may gain as oil prices rise amid renewed fears of a Strait of Hormuz blockade.

EUR/CAD holds position after paring its intraday losses, trading around 1.6200 during the Asian hours on Monday. However, the currency cross still remains in the negative territory as the Euro (EUR) struggles amid increased risk aversion after the failure of the United States (US)-Iran peace talks.

US Vice President JD Vance confirmed the US–Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a deal following 21 hours of negotiations. President Donald Trump confirmed on Truth Social that the blockade of ships entering and exiting Iranian ports will begin today, April 13, at 10:00 AM ET (14:00 GMT).

Eurozone annual inflation rose to 2.5% in March, the highest since January 2025, exceeding the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target amid rising energy prices. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that policy will remain restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to target.

Nordea’s Jan von Gerich and Tuuli Koivu, in their pre-ceasefire ECB outlook, projected four 25-basis-point rate hikes starting in June. They emphasize that broader price pressures persist and that even a resolution to the conflict would not eliminate the need for ECB tightening.

The EUR/CAD cross also struggles as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may receive support from the rising oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price trades over 7% higher near $96.90 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude oil prices rise as US–Iran tensions re-escalate and fears grow over a potential Strait of Hormuz blockade.

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EUR/JPY holds losses near 186.50 as US–Iran talks fail

  • EUR/JPY struggles as the Euro faces challenges on increased risk aversion.
  • US Vice President JD Vance confirmed that US–Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a deal.
  • Rising energy costs boosted expectations of a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike.

EUR/JPY pares its daily losses but remains in the negative territory, trading around 186.60 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross faced challenges as the risk-sensitive Euro (EUR) lost ground following the failure of the United States (US)-Iran peace talks. US Vice President JD Vance confirmed that the US–Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a deal following 21 hours of negotiations.

US President Donald Trump said Washington would begin blockading all ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, while US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed operations targeting maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports from 10 AM ET (14:00 GMT) on Monday.

Nordea’s Jan von Gerich and Tuuli Koivu, in their pre-ceasefire European Central Bank (ECB) outlook, projected four 25-basis-point rate hikes starting in June. While they now see downside risks to this view, they emphasize that broader price pressures persist and that even a resolution to the conflict would not eliminate the need for ECB tightening.

The downside of the EUR/JPY cross could be restrained as the Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles on stagflation concerns amid rising oil prices. Rising energy costs fueled expectations of a near-term Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike. The BoJ is set to hold its next policy decision on April 28, where officials will evaluate whether elevated global energy and commodity prices justify tightening.

The Sakura Report showed board members balancing upside inflation risks against downside growth risks following the April 6 branch managers’ meeting. All nine regions maintained that their economies were either “recovering moderately,” “picking up,” or “picking up moderately.”

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EUR/USD Price Rebounds to near 1.1700 as bullish bias prevails

  • EUR/USD may face key resistance near 1.1750 at the upper ascending channel boundary.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 56 signals positive momentum.
  • The immediate support lies at the 50-day EMA near 1.1640.

EUR/USD edges higher after opening at a gap down, trading around 1.1690 during the Asian hours on Monday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a bullish bias, as the pair is rising within an ascending channel.

The EUR/USD pair holds a modest bullish bias as it stays above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This constructive positioning is backed by a 14-day Relative Strength Index near 56, which suggests positive but not overstretched momentum, leaving room for further upside while the pair remains supported on dips.

On the upside, the EUR/USD pair may find its primary barrier at the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.1750, followed by the eight-week high of 1.1834, reached on February 23. Further advances above this confluence resistance zone would lead the pair in exploring the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, reached on January 27.

The EUR/USD pair may find the immediate support at the 50-day EMA of 1.1640, aligned with the nine-day EMA of 1.1636. A break below these averages would weaken the price momentum and expose the lower ascending channel boundary around 1.1500, followed by the eight-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.

EUR/USD: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.32%0.46%0.27%0.17%0.45%0.28%0.35%
EUR-0.32%0.12%-0.04%-0.14%0.11%-0.03%0.07%
GBP-0.46%-0.12%-0.17%-0.29%-0.02%-0.17%-0.10%
JPY-0.27%0.04%0.17%-0.15%0.14%-0.03%0.11%
CAD-0.17%0.14%0.29%0.15%0.32%0.13%0.19%
AUD-0.45%-0.11%0.02%-0.14%-0.32%-0.15%-0.02%
NZD-0.28%0.03%0.17%0.03%-0.13%0.15%0.10%
CHF-0.35%-0.07%0.10%-0.11%-0.19%0.02%-0.10%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).