Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that in the short term EUR/USD gains are capped as markets may be overestimating the European Central Bank’s (ECB) reaction to the latest inflation shock. She notes the Euro (EUR) and Pound (GBP) have held up better than in 2022 thanks to expectations of quicker tightening. Over the longer term, she highlights greater inflation and policy risks for the US Dollar (USD) versus the Euro.
Short-term cap, longer-term Dollar risk
“How will the fx markets develop in this environment? I think it makes sense to distinguish between the short and the longer term. In the short term – and we have already seen this to some extent – the focus is likely to be very much on the immediate reactions of the central banks.”
“This time things look a little different. The euro, and alongside it the British pound, are holding up fairly well against the US dollar. This is probably because markets trust both the ECB and the Bank of England to have learned from the mistakes of four years ago and to react early to inflation risks.”
“We have already expressed our doubts about market expectations for the ECB on several occasions, which is why we see the further upside potential in EUR/USD as limited. But that is only the short-term view. In the longer term, the pendulum could swing back again.”
“Therefore, in the longer term, the wheat is likely to be separated from the chaff, and only those currencies will prove robust where inflation falls back towards the 2% target more quickly. We see substantial risks in particular for the dollar. Apart from inflation, which has recently been firmer anyway due to the significant increases in import tariffs, further attacks by the US government are likely to make it difficult for the US central bank to respond adequately to an inflation shock.”
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is losing momentum near 98.00 as safe-haven demand fades on the reopening news, but downside remains limited amid lingering geopolitical risks.
Markets are experiencing fluctuations between relief and renewed caution as developments around the Strait of Hormuz continue to evolve. Earlier reports confirmed that this vital Oil chokepoint is “fully open and ready for full passage,” alleviating fears about prolonged supply disruptions.
However, new developments are complicating the situation. Reports suggest that Iran may consider closing the Strait of Hormuz again if the United States maintains its naval blockade, warning that such an action would be viewed as a violation of the ceasefire.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.09%
-0.17%
-0.59%
-0.23%
-0.31%
-0.16%
-0.49%
EUR
0.09%
-0.08%
-0.52%
-0.15%
-0.22%
-0.08%
-0.42%
GBP
0.17%
0.08%
-0.45%
-0.07%
-0.14%
0.01%
-0.32%
JPY
0.59%
0.52%
0.45%
0.37%
0.28%
0.42%
0.09%
CAD
0.23%
0.15%
0.07%
-0.37%
-0.08%
0.05%
-0.26%
AUD
0.31%
0.22%
0.14%
-0.28%
0.08%
0.15%
-0.19%
NZD
0.16%
0.08%
-0.01%
-0.42%
-0.05%
-0.15%
-0.34%
CHF
0.49%
0.42%
0.32%
-0.09%
0.26%
0.19%
0.34%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is pushing higher toward the 1.1790 region, benefiting from the softer USD tone, although gains remain capped by cautious sentiment and mixed Eurozone data.
GBP/USD is also advancing near the 1.3550 level, supported by improved risk appetite as the pair attempts to recover recent losses amid a reassessment of global risks.
USD/JPY fell near the 158.20 price zone as the Japanese Yen (JPY) finds some support from residual safe-haven demand.
AUD/USD was one of the top performers earlier in the day, rallying sharply toward the 0.7200 region but later easing to near the 0.7180 price zone. Oil shock fears and improved global sentiment favor commodity-linked currencies.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil sharply declined to near the $83.00 per barrel, lower after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as supply concerns ease and risk premiums unwind. Still, prices remain vulnerable to sudden spikes if geopolitical tensions resurface.
Gold surged toward $4,865, even after safe-haven demand weakened amid ongoing uncertainty and the risk of renewed escalation in the Middle East.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Tuesday, April 21:
ECB’s Nagel speech
ECB’s De Guindos speech
Fed’s Waller speech
Wednesday, April 22:
ECB’s Elderson speech
ECB’s Lane speech
BoE’s Breeden speech
ECB’s Lane speech
ECB’s Cipollone speech
ECB’s Sleijpen speech
ECB’s Nagel speech
ECB’s President Lagarde speech
Thursday, April 23:
ECB’s Nagel speech
Friday, April 24:
SNB Chairman Schlegel’s speech
Central banks’ meetings and upcoming data releases to shape
Monday, April 20:
China PBoC Interest Rate Decision
Germany PPI March
Canada CPIs
Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey
New Zealand Business Confidence Q1
New Zealand CPI Q1
Tuesday, April 21:
United Kingdom Labor Market Data
Germany ZEW Survey April
Eurozone ZEW Survey April
United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average
EUR/USD turns sideways after rallying to near 1.1825, awaiting the resumption of US-Iran talks.
US President Trump says that Iran is ready to hand over its uranium enrichment.
ECB’s Villeroy pushes back prospects of an interest rate hike in policy announcement on April 30.
The EUR/USD pair trades subduedly near 1.1777 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The major currency pair has turned sideways after a two-week-long rally to near 1.1825 as investors await the announcement of another round of talks between the United States (US) and Iran.
S&P 500 futures are flat in the Asian trade after rising 0.26% to 7,041 on Thursday, reflecting a quiet but broadly upbeat market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher around 98.25, but looks set for a second weekly loss.
While neither the US nor Iran has announced any timeframe for the second round of talks, President Donald Trump expressed confidence, in a press briefing on Thursday, that Iran is willing to give up its uranium enrichment and surrender its nuclear ambitions. Trump also said, “We’re very close to a deal with Iran,” while warning that military actions against Tehran would resume if a deal is not closed.
On the domestic front, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and governor of the Bank of France François Villeroy de Galhau has pushed back hopes of an interest rate hike in the policy meeting later this month. “Focus on April hike is premature,” he said in an interview with CNBC on Thursday.
EUR/USD technical analysis
EUR/USD trades flat at around 1.1777 in the Asian trade. The pair holds a constructive near-term bullish bias as spot remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1673, keeping recent upside progress intact after rebounding from the mid-1.15s. Momentum conditions are supportive, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index hovering around 62, suggesting persistent buying interest without yet signaling extreme overbought conditions.
On the downside, initial support is defined by the 20-day EMA at 1.1673, where a break would weaken the current advance and expose a deeper pullback toward the recent mid-1.15 consolidation area. As long as buyers defend this dynamic floor, the path of least resistance remains higher, leaving the pair biased to probe above the April 16 high of 1.1825 and extend the recovery toward the February high of 1.1929.
What is the technical outlook for USDJPY, EURNZD, and NZDUSD?
The Overbalance analysis aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures. USDJPY USDJPY has been trending upward for quite some time. Looking back to the lows in February, the largest correction was around 230 pips. The current correction is of a similar magnitude, which allows us to identify key support at the 158.10 level, derived from the 1:1 ratio. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as this level is not broken, the uptrend remains in effect. If it is broken, the correction could deepen, and the next significant support would be at 155.11, where the lower boundary of a larger 1:1 pattern with a range of approximately 530 pips is located.
USDJPY – H4 chart. Source: xStation EURNZD Since February, the EURNZD pair has been attempting to return to an uptrend. Currently, the price is hovering near a key support level at 1.9965, which corresponds to the lower boundary of a local 1:1 uptrend pattern formed from the low on February 3. According to the Overbalance methodology, holding this level could lead to the generation of another upward impulse. On the other hand, a break below it would open the way for declines. The bearish scenario would be confirmed if the price falls below 1.9855, where the upper boundary of the previous 1:1 downward pattern is located. In that case, a move toward the lows at 1.9540 would be possible.
EURNZD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation NZDUSD NZDUSD prices have recently negated the largest 1:1 corrective downtrend, which may suggest the possibility of a larger corrective uptrend or even a trend reversal. Currently, the key support zone is between 0.5835 and 0.5828. This zone stems both from the lower boundary of the local 1:1 upward pattern and from the polarity of the previously negated downward geometry. As long as the price remains above this zone, the base scenario remains bullish. Conversely, a drop below 0.5828 could signal a return to the downtrend.
NZDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation
The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.
EUR/USD hovers right above 1.1800, on track for a nine-day rally.
Rising hopes of the resolution of the Middle East conflict are hammering the safe-haven USD.
Trump threatened to fire Fed Chairman Jerome Trump if he does not step aside in May 15.
The (EUR) edges up against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, trading right above 1.1800 at the time of writing, on track for a nine-day rally. Hopes of a new round of negotiations between the US and Iran have prompted investors to move away from the safe-haven Dollar, propelling the pair to pre-war levels.
US President Donald Trump confirmed ongoing indirect negotiations with Tehran and affirmed in an interview that peace talks might resume in the coming days. He also affirmed that Israel and Lebanon will start “direct talks” soon, which would contribute to laying the ground for a steady peace agreement with Iran.
Apart from that, the US president has reignited his feud with Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, raising concerns about the central bank’s independence and adding pressure on the USD. The Republican threatened to oust him from his separate seat on the Board of Governors if he refused to vacate it at the end of his term as Fed Chair. Powell’s term as the central bank’s chief ends on May 15, but his term on the Board of Governors does not expire until 2028.
Technical Analysis: Resistance at 1.1825 is holding bulls
EUR/USD holds a constructive near-term bias, with technical indicators on the four-hour chart showing mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index hovers in bullish territory near 66 while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally into negative ground.
Bulls are struggling to break the late February lows in the 1.1825 area, which is closing the path towards the February 10 and 11 highs, near 1.1930.
On the downside, initial support is seen at Wednesday’s low, right above 1.1770, followed by the previous tops, between 1.1720 and 1.1740. Further down, a breach of the support area around 1.1650 (April 8, 12 lows) would put the current bullish trend into question.
EUR/JPY softens to around 187.50 in Thursday’s early European session.
The cross keeps the bullish vibe above the key 100-day EMA.
The first upside barrier emerges at 187.95; the initial support level is seen at 186.20.
The EUR/JPY cross trades with mild losses near 187.50 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) amid intervention fears from Japanese authorities. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that she told the G7 to closely watch forex moves.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise its benchmark rate to 1.00% by end-June, with nearly two-thirds of economists in a Reuters poll predicting the move, and a hike in April or in June seen as equally likely amid uncertainty over the fallout from the Iran war.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, EUR/JPY maintains a bullish near-term bias as price holds well above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). The pair is pressing the upper side of its recent volatility envelope, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just under overbought territory around 69, which suggests strong upward momentum but also hints that upside could become stretched if gains extend without a corrective pause.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the upper Bollinger Band of 187.95, en route to 188.50. On the downside, any pullback would likely find first demand near the April 13 low of 186.20. The next contention level is seen at the middle Bollinger Band of 185.00, with a deeper setback exposing the rising 100-day EMA at 182.75.
EUR/CAD weakens as the Canadian Dollar gains support despite softer oil prices.
Washington and Tehran are weighing an extension of their two-week ceasefire to gain more time for peace negotiations.
Middle East de-escalation boosts risk appetite, while falling oil prices ease inflationary pressures in the Eurozone.
EUR/CAD remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 1.6200 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross depreciates as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from easing Middle East conflict. However, the commodity-linked CAD may come under pressure from softer oil prices. It is worth noting that Canada is the largest crude exporter to the United States.
Reports indicated that Washington and Tehran are considering extending their two-week ceasefire to allow more time for peace negotiations, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under a dual blockade. However, Tehran may allow vessels to pass freely through the Omani side of the Strait if an agreement is reached to prevent a renewed escalation in hostilities.”
However, the Euro (EUR) also holds ground against its major peers amid improved market sentiment, driven by expectations of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. US President Donald Trump stated that the war was “close to over.” Reports, including those from Bloomberg, indicated speculation about a possible two-week extension of a ceasefire, although Trump dismissed the necessity of such a move, citing ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the conflict.
“Signs of de-escalation in the Middle East have boosted risk appetite, with declining oil prices helping to ease inflationary pressures in Eurozone. Policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) are inclined to keep interest rates unchanged at the April policy meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde said this week that the central bank must remain “completely agile” on rates, while emphasizing that it does not hold a bias toward tightening. Nevertheless, traders continue to view rate hikes as unavoidable, pricing in two quarter-point increases this year.
This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures. EURAUD The EURAUD exchange rate had been in a downtrend for quite some time. However, between March and April, we observed a significant upward correction that broke through the largest corrective pattern, suggesting a potential trend reversal. Ultimately, it turned out to be merely a corrective move within the downtrend, and the price is once again attempting to resume its decline. In the short term, the local 1:1 upward pattern was negated at the 1.6680 level, which was subsequently tested from the other side. Currently, the price is attempting to fall below the 1.6545 level, where the polarity of the previously negated 1:1 downward pattern is located. If this level holds as resistance, the base case scenario will be a continuation of the decline, potentially even toward 1.6135. Conversely, a return above 1.6680 could pave the way for a shift to an uptrend.
EURAUD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation EURGBP The EURGBP pair hit a local low around 0.8617, after which it attempted to generate a stronger upward move. Currently, however, there appears to be an issue with sustaining the rally. The price is oscillating around the key level of 0.8693, which previously acted as support. Retests of this level could result in its rejection and a return to declines. If the price remains above 0.8693, another upward impulse may be generated. Otherwise, the base scenario will be a retest of the lows around 0.8617.
EURGBP – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation AUDUSD Since late March, AUDUSD has been trading within a local uptrend. Two corrections of similar magnitude—around 100 pips—are visible, confirming a market structure consistent with the Overbalance methodology. A local uptrend has been in place since the low on March 30, and as long as the geometric pattern is not negated, further gains remain the base case scenario. In the event of a correction, the key support level is 0.7043, derived from the lower boundary of the 1:1 pattern.
AUDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation
The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.
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