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EUR/GBP Price Forecasts: Euro remains on the defensive with 0.8640 capping gains

  • EUR/GBP bounces up from lows sub 0.8620, but remains capped below 0.8640.
  • Hawkish comments by ECB’s Lane have failed to support the Euro.
  • In the UK, fading expectations of BoE hikes are weighing on GBP rallies.

The Euro (EUR) is trading higher against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday, trimming losses after depreciating more than 1% in a bit more than a week. Euro bulls, however, remain capped below the 0.8640 area so far, which leaves the pair trading within Monday’s range, and keeps its broader bearish trend intact.

Hawkish comments by European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philippe Lane, who endorsed market expectations of upcoming rate hikes earlier on Tuesday, have failed to provide any significant support to the Euro. 

The Pound, on the other hand, remains fairly resilient to the UK’s uncertain political scenario, although the low yield on UK Gilts amid fading hopes of Bank of England (BoE) monetary tightening, as well as a somewhat more cautious market, are keeping Cable’s upside attempts limited.

Technical Analysis: Euro bears remain in control

EUR/GBP Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP trades at 0.8634, with the near-term bearish structure still in place and momentum indicators pointing to moderate bearish pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced up from oversold levels, but remains within negative territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has inched back into positive territory, yet hints at a consolidative, neutral bias, rather than at a trend shift.

Initial resistance lies at a previous support in the 0.8640 area (May 21 low). Further up, the May 20 and May 19 highs, near 0.8665, and the 0.8685 area, respectively, emerge as the next bullish targets.

On the downside, a break below 2026 lows between 0.8605 and 0.8615 would bring the August 2025 low, at the 0.8600 area, and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the May selloff, at 0.8587, into focus.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.05%0.19%0.18%0.03%0.12%0.47%0.28%
EUR-0.05%0.16%0.13%-0.00%0.10%0.44%0.22%
GBP-0.19%-0.16%-0.02%-0.16%-0.06%0.28%0.08%
JPY-0.18%-0.13%0.02%-0.14%-0.03%0.29%0.12%
CAD-0.03%0.00%0.16%0.14%0.12%0.46%0.25%
AUD-0.12%-0.10%0.06%0.03%-0.12%0.35%0.14%
NZD-0.47%-0.44%-0.28%-0.29%-0.46%-0.35%-0.21%
CHF-0.28%-0.22%-0.08%-0.12%-0.25%-0.14%0.21%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/JPY Price Hovers around 185.00, descending channel top

  • EUR/JPY hovers near the upper boundary of the channel around 185.00.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index sits at 49.05 near neutral, signaling that momentum has cooled from prior overbought readings.
  • The initial support appears at the 50-day EMA of 184.86.

EUR/JPY inches lower after posting modest gains in the previous day, trading around 184.90 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross holds a constructive bias as it trades above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), clustered just below 185.00 and suggesting underlying demand on shallow pullbacks.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.05 sits near neutral, hinting that momentum has cooled from prior overbought readings but without signalling outright downside pressure while price stays supported by these short- and medium-term EMAs.

However, the technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the EUR/JPY cross is positioned on the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern, indicating a potential bullish reversal. A sustained break above the channel would cause an emergence of a bullish bias.

Further advances above the channel would support the EUR/JPY cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, the immediate support lies at the 50-day EMA of 184.86, aligned with the nine-day EMA at 184.84. A break below these moving averages would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the three-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by a five-month low of 180.81, which was reached on February 12.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.06%0.08%0.00%0.03%0.00%0.23%0.04%
EUR-0.06%0.06%-0.06%-0.02%-0.02%0.19%-0.02%
GBP-0.08%-0.06%-0.09%-0.06%-0.07%0.15%-0.05%
JPY0.00%0.06%0.09%0.02%0.03%0.22%0.05%
CAD-0.03%0.02%0.06%-0.02%0.01%0.22%0.02%
AUD-0.00%0.02%0.07%-0.03%-0.01%0.21%0.01%
NZD-0.23%-0.19%-0.15%-0.22%-0.22%-0.21%-0.20%
CHF-0.04%0.02%0.05%-0.05%-0.02%-0.01%0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/USD Price Near-term tone remains bearish as 20-day EMA slopes downwards

  • EUR/USD ticks lower to near 1.1633 as US forces strike at Iranian missile launcher sites.
  • The US military clarified that strikes were in “self-defense” and not meant to dismiss the ceasefire with Iran.
  • US President Trump said that negotiations with Iran are proceeding nicely.

The EUR/USD pair trades marginally lower at around 1.1633 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair faces slight selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) attacks some bids due to fears that the United States (US)-Iran negotiations could face a setback.

According to a spokesperson from the US Central Command, US forces ‌conducted strikes in southern Iran on Monday, which were aimed at missile launch sites and Iranian vessels aiming to deploy mines.

However, the US military has clarified that the nature of the strikes was “defensive” and were not meant to end the ceasefire with Tehran.

The event has resulted in a slight recovery in the US Dollar (USD) and a decent one in oil prices. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 99.05.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has stated that negotiations with Iran to end the conflict are “proceeding nicely”, Bloomberg reported.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades slightly lower at around 1.1635, keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1667.

The pair has been grinding lower from early-month highs, and the subdued Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 45.1 hints at fading bullish momentum rather than oversold conditions, suggesting sellers retain the initiative while buyers remain cautious.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at 1.1667, and a daily close above this dynamic barrier would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way to a more meaningful recovery towards 1.1700. On the downside, the pair could resume its downside journey if it drops below the May 21 low of 1.1576. Key support area will be 1.1500.

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Euro softens against British Pound despite ECB hike prospects

  • EUR/GBP declines to near 0.8635 in Monday’s early European session. 
  • ECB rate hike chance rises as Iran conflict fuels inflation. 
  • BoE’s Taylor sees less risk of inflation persistence than in 2022. 

The EUR/GBP cross trades in negative territory around 0.8635 during the early European trading hours on Monday. Traders await the speeches from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers later this week, including President Christine Lagarde, for fresh impetus. 

The ECB hinted that rising energy prices might push this year’s inflation forecasts upward, supporting the case for a potential interest rate hike this year. According to Reuters, the case for the ECB to raise the interest rates in June is nearly sealed, but the central bank is likely to be noncommittal about any further move, looking to temper bets for a quick follow-up step in July.

On the UK’s front, softer UK Retail Sales data and an unexpected rise in the Unemployment Rate to 5.0% have prompted traders to scale back expectations for future Bank of England (BoE) rate hikes by December. This, in turn, might weigh on the GBP and acts as a tailwind for the cross. 

BoE Policymaker Alan Taylor said that an “extended hold” is likely sufficient, adding that second-round inflationary impacts are less severe than those seen during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion due to a cooling domestic jobs market. Financial markets are pricing in two quarter-point increases in interest rates by the UK central bank by the end of the year.

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EUR/JPY Price Tests 185.00 barrier near descending channel top

  • EUR/JPY could test the immediate resistance at the upper boundary of the channel around 185.10.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index sits near 50, hinting at neutral but stabilizing momentum.
  • The initial support appears at the 50-day EMA of 184.85.

EUR/JPY extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 184.90 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair is holding a mild bullish bias as it consolidates above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which cluster just below price around the mid-184s and reinforce a nearby demand zone.

Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits close to the 50 line, hinting at neutral but stabilizing momentum that could allow the cross to extend gains while it remains supported by these short- and medium-term trend gauges.

However, the technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the EUR/JPY cross is still moving sideways within a descending channel pattern, indicating an ongoing bearish bias. A sustained break above the channel would offer a bearish confirmation.

The immediate resistance lies at the upper boundary of the channel around 185.10. Further advances would support the EUR/JPY cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

The immediate support lies at the 50-day EMA of 184.85, followed by the nine-day EMA at 184.79. A break below these moving averages would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the three-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by a five-month low of 180.81, which was reached on February 12.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.35%-0.40%-0.27%-0.17%-0.59%-0.51%-0.36%
EUR0.35%-0.06%0.07%0.16%-0.27%-0.17%-0.03%
GBP0.40%0.06%0.15%0.22%-0.20%-0.11%0.02%
JPY0.27%-0.07%-0.15%0.09%-0.37%-0.29%-0.16%
CAD0.17%-0.16%-0.22%-0.09%-0.43%-0.35%-0.23%
AUD0.59%0.27%0.20%0.37%0.43%0.08%0.21%
NZD0.51%0.17%0.11%0.29%0.35%-0.08%0.12%
CHF0.36%0.03%-0.02%0.16%0.23%-0.21%-0.12%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/USD Price Trades near 1.1650 as bulls look to extends gains above 23.6% Fibo.

  • EUR/USD kicks off the new week on a positive note as US-Iran peace deal hopes undermine the USD.
  • Bets for an interest rate hike by the Fed in 2026 could help limit deeper USD losses and cap spot prices.
  • Acceptance above the 23.6% Fibo. backs the case for a further intraday appreciating move for the pair.

The EUR/USD pair opens with a bullish gap at the start of a new week as renewed optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal weighs heavily on the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). Spot prices climb back closer to mid-1.1600s during the Asian session, though the broader setup warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of a modest recovery from the lowest level since April 7, around the 1.1575 region, touched last Thursday.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair is holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-May downfall. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 58 and a slightly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hints at improving momentum. This, in turn, backs the case for a further intraday appreciating move, though hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) bets could limit USD losses and cap spot prices.

Hence, any subsequent move up is more likely to confront an immediate hurdle near the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the 1.1675-1.1680 region. This is followed by the 1.1710 confluence, comprising the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 50% retracement. The said area should keep the near-term bias capped, above which the EUR/USD pair could target the 61.8% level around 1.1740 and the 78.6% retracement at 1.1785 en route to the cycle high at 1.1842.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the 23.6% retracement at 1.1638, with a deeper floor at the Fibonacci structural anchor around 1.1574, where a break would reopen the broader bearish phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.32%-0.37%-0.25%-0.16%-0.57%-0.46%-0.35%
EUR0.32%-0.06%0.07%0.14%-0.26%-0.15%-0.03%
GBP0.37%0.06%0.13%0.20%-0.21%-0.08%0.02%
JPY0.25%-0.07%-0.13%0.08%-0.36%-0.26%-0.15%
CAD0.16%-0.14%-0.20%-0.08%-0.42%-0.32%-0.21%
AUD0.57%0.26%0.21%0.36%0.42%0.11%0.22%
NZD0.46%0.15%0.08%0.26%0.32%-0.11%0.10%
CHF0.35%0.03%-0.02%0.15%0.21%-0.22%-0.10%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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Euro edges lower to near 1.1600 on US-Iran peace deal uncertainty

  • EUR/USD posts modest losses near 1.1615 in Friday’s early European session. 
  • Mixed signals on the progress of US-Iran ceasefire talks continued to keep traders cautious. 
  • The ECB June rate hike case is nearly sealed, but July is fully open, said Reuters.  

The EUR/USD pair trades with mild losses around 1.1615 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The Euro (EUR) remains weak against the US Dollar (USD) amid mixed headlines surrounding the US-Iran peace deal. Germany’s IFO surveys and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index report will be released later in the day. 

Traders will closely monitor the progress of US-Iran ceasefire talks. Iranian officials said that the latest proposal from the US partly narrowed the gap between the warring sides, but comments from the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader about keeping Tehran’s uranium stockpile and a dispute over tolls in the Strait of Hormuz clouded the outlook for a breakthrough. 

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump warned that he may resume attacks soon if Iran doesn’t agree to his terms. Any signs of a prolonged conflict or escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair. 

The case for the European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike in June is nearly sealed, but the central bank is likely to be noncommittal about any further move, looking to temper bets for a quick follow-up step in July, according to Reuters. The ECB decided to hold the key interest rates steady ‌in April, but it debated a hike and signalled that a move in the June policy meeting was likely given persistently high energy costs.

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Euro weakens against British Pound ahead of Germany IFO Business Survey

  • EUR/GBP remains subdued as the Euro falls ahead of upcoming German economic indicators.
  • The Euro struggles as flash PMI data showed the Euro Area economy shrinking at its fastest pace since late 2023.
  • The May 2026 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Index rose to -23, beating estimates of -28 as household pessimism slightly eased.

EUR/GBP extends its winning streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 0.8650 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross remains subdued as the Euro (EUR) struggles ahead of upcoming German economic indicators, including the June GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, Q1 GDP figures, and the IFO Business Survey, due later in the day.

The Euro faced significant challenges as traders reacted to a surprising contraction in the Eurozone economy. According to the latest S&P Global flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data released on Thursday, the Euro Area economy shrank in May at its fastest pace since late 2023. This downturn was primarily driven by a conflict-fueled surge in living costs that stifled service demand and pushed input price inflation to a three-year high.

The downside of the EUR/GBP cross is retrained as the British Pound (GBP) inches lower following the GfK Consumer Confidence Index release, which edged up to -23 in May 2026 from -25 in the previous month, which had marked the lowest reading since October 2023 amid persistent worries about the Iran war. The result defied market estimates of -28, suggesting that households were slightly less pessimistic about the outlook. GfK consumer insights director Neil Bellamy cautioned that the uptick was unlikely to mark a sustained recovery in overall sentiment.

In contrast to the slight bump in consumer confidence, actual UK business activity weakened considerably. Thursday’s S&P Global Composite PMI for May contracted to 48.5 from 52.6, falling well below the market estimate of 51.7. This sharp decline serves as a clear indication that economic activity could shrink further under the weight of the Middle East conflict.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that the UK economy is facing a perfect storm as rising political uncertainty adds to the growing impact from the war in the Middle East.

Despite these signs of economic slowing, the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee member landed firmly on the tightening side of the ledger, creating an awkward policy contrast against survey data that points to a stalling economy. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey also spoke during the session, but did not do much to shift the market needle.