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EUR/USD nears weekly highs at 1.1755 as the US Dollar falters

  • EUR/USD extends gains on Friday, approaching weekly highs, at 1.1755.
  • Another alleged Yen intervention has hit the US Dollar on a holiday-thinned market.
  • The Euro bounced up on Thursday amid hot Eurozone inflation and a hawkish hold by the ECB.

The Euro (EUR) has turned positive against a weaker US Dollar (USD) on Friday, and is trading at 1.1742 at the time of writing, a few pips short of the top of the weekly trading range, at 1.1755. An alleged intervention by Japanese authorities, presumably the second in the last two days, hit the USD/JPY earlier on Friday, hammering the Greenback in thinned Labour Day trading.

The USD/JPY dropped nearly 200 pips in a matter of seconds at the early European session, in a move that reverberated throughout the market, sending the US Dollar lower across the board. The EUR/USD, which hitherto was featuring moderate losses, resumed its positive trend from Thursday’s lows at 1.1655.

The pair regained lost ground on Thursday, as investors prioritised the hot Eurozone inflation figures over the weakening Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. Later on, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a “hawkish hold,” keeping interest rates unchanged but hinting at a rate hike in the near term.

The ECB’s stance was reaffirmed by the Bundesbank president and committee member, Joachim Nagel, who said on Friday that the baseline scenario entails a more restrictive monetary policy and flagged the possibility of a rate hike in June.

Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East remains stalled. The US and Iran have continued exchanging threats, with the Strait of Hormuz entering its third month of blockade and no credible plan to reopen it at sight. Oil prices are above the key $100, with Brent Oil at $113.94 at the time of writing, a very painful level for Eurozone Crude-importing economies, which will, highly likely, weigh on the Euro in the long run.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD keeps looking for direction around 1.1700

EUR/USD Chart Analysis

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD remains trapped within a broadly 100-pip range, with support above 1.1650 holding bears and upside attempts limited below 1.1750.

Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart are showing an improving momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaches the 60 level, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a widening green histogram, suggesting that the bullish momentum is gathering pace.

Bulls, however, would need to break the mentioned 1.1755 resistance (April 27 high) to confirm that the bearish correction from 1.1850 highs has been completed. Further up, the April 20 high near 1.1790 is likely to test the Euro’s recovery ahead of April’s peak, right below 1.1850.

Bears, on the other hand, are struggling to extend dips below a cluster of supports between 1.1675 and the April 8 intraday low, near 1.1645. A confirmation below here would clear the way to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the early April rally, at 1.1580, and the April 2 and 3 low, near 1.1500.

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EUR/GBP flat lines above 0.8600 as ECB and BoE keep interest rates unchanged

  • EUR/GBP steadies near 0.8625 in Friday’s early European session. 
  • The European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold at its April meeting. 
  • The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday.  

The EUR/GBP cross holds steady around 0.8625 during the early European session on Friday. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) warned they may need to raise interest rates in the coming months, as central banks grapple with the energy shock triggered by the war in the Middle East.

The ECB governing council opted to hold its benchmark deposit facility rate at 2% on Thursday. According to the statement, the central bank said the inflation outlook was largely unchanged. “The upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified.”

ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank’s governing council had discussed a rate rise this month “at length and in depth” before voting for a hold. However, policymakers would closely monitor the situation and take a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining their monetary policy stance.  

On the UK’s front, the Bank of England (BoE) held interest rates at 3.75% as uncertainty over the Iran war continues. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said if price pressures triggered by the conflict proved to be severe, a “forceful tightening” would be required.

Bailey on Thursday played down fears of near-term rate hikes but added: “We’ll continue to monitor the situation and its impact on the UK economy very closely.”

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EUR/USD Price Holds onto gains near 1.1730

  • EUR/USD trades firmly near 1.1735 amid weakness in the US Dollar.
  • Investors await the ECB commentaries and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for April.
  • The US GDP growth remained at 2% on an annualized basis in the first quarter of the year.

The EUR/USD pair clings to Thursday’s gains near 1.1735 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The major currency pair reflects strength as the US Dollar (USD) holds onto the previous day’s losses, which were driven by suspected Japan’s intervention in forex markets.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades weakly near Thursday’s low around 98.00.

On Thursday, the US preliminary Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data arrived weaker than projected. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2%, slower than 2.3% estimates.

Meanwhile, investors await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for April, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to arrive higher at 53.0 from the previous reading of 52.7.

During the Asian trade, the Euro (EUR) trades broadly firm, with investors awaiting commentaries from a slew of European Central Bank (ECB) officials, following the completion of the so-called quiet period after the monetary policy announcement on Thursday.

USD/JPY technical analysis

EUR/USD trades firmly at around 1.1735, holding a mildly bullish bias as it sits above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1702 and between key Fibonacci retracement levels of the latest swing. The pair is hovering just under the 50.0% retracement at 1.1745, suggesting topside progress is slowing but not yet reversing, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55 hints at constructive, yet not overextended, upside momentum.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1745, followed by the 61.8% level at 1.1825, with further barriers at 1.1938 and 1.2082. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-period EMA at 1.1702, ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1666; a deeper pullback would expose the 23.6% retracement at 1.1567, with the cycle low near 1.1408 acting as a more distant structural floor.

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EUR/JPY remains stronger near 184.50 following Tokyo inflation data

  • EUR/JPY rises as the Japanese Yen weakens after mixed Tokyo inflation data.
  • Tokyo CPI rose 1.5% YoY in April; core CPI also 1.5%, missing the 1.8% forecast.
  • The ECB kept the deposit rate at 2% despite rising Eurozone inflation driven by the Iran conflict.

EUR/JPY gains ground after registering 1.88% losses in the previous day, trading around 184.40 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross advances as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens following mixed Tokyo inflation data.

Japan’s Statistics Bureau reported Friday that Tokyo’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.5% year-over-year (YoY) in April, up from 1.4% prior. Core CPI (excluding fresh food) also increased 1.5% YoY, missing the 1.8% forecast and down from 1.7% previously. Meanwhile, CPI excluding fresh food and energy eased to 1.5% from 1.7%.

The JPY found some support against major peers after suspected intervention by Tokyo, which came hours after officials issued a “final” warning against excessive currency selling. Although the Finance Ministry has not confirmed action, the sharp market move led traders to attribute it to government support. Investors are now weighing the chances of further intervention, as authorities often act in multiple rounds.

Japan’s top FX official, Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura, declined to comment on intervention or crude oil futures, but noted ongoing close communication with the US on currency matters.

The Euro (EUR) also gains support after the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged at its April meeting. The governing council kept the deposit rate at 2% despite rising Eurozone inflation amid the Iran conflict, stating that while the outlook remains broadly unchanged, upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have increased.

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EUR/USD advances as ECB holds rates, mixed US data weigh on Dollar

  • EUR/USD advances despite a cautious ECB stance and unchanged rates.
  • Energy-driven inflation risks complicate the Eurozone outlook.
  • The US Dollar softens amid mixed US data and steady Fed expectations.

EUR/USD trades around 1.1690 on Thursday at the time of writing, up 0.11% on the day, after hitting a three-week low at 1.1655 earlier in the day.

The pair benefits from a weaker US Dollar (USD), as mixed economic indicators are weighing on the Greenback, notably US annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth coming in at 2% in the first quarter, below expectations of 2.3%, although significantly higher than the previous reading of 0.5%.

At the same time, inflation measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index reached 3.5% YoY in March, confirming persistent price pressures, while Initial Jobless Claims fell to 189K from a revised 215K in the previous week, pointing to continued resilience in the labor market. This mixed backdrop is maintaining uncertainty around the timing of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next policy moves.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated on Wednesday that the current policy stance remains appropriate, while highlighting that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are adding to global uncertainty.

On the European side, the European Central Bank (ECB) left its key interest rates unchanged on Thursday, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.4%, and the deposit facility at 2%. The central bank noted that incoming data have been broadly in line with its projections, while warning that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified.

ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, noting that policymakers extensively debated a potential rate hike before unanimously deciding to hold rates steady. She also highlighted that rising energy prices could weigh on investment from both firms and households, amid elevated uncertainty and weakening confidence.

Although long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored around the 2% target, short-term expectations have risen significantly, particularly due to geopolitical tensions. This context reinforces the ECB’s cautious stance, as it prefers to wait for greater clarity before adjusting its monetary policy.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.07%-0.25%-2.26%-0.12%-0.55%-0.67%-0.94%
EUR0.07%-0.14%-2.18%-0.05%-0.45%-0.57%-0.84%
GBP0.25%0.14%-2.03%0.10%-0.30%-0.42%-0.70%
JPY2.26%2.18%2.03%2.18%1.77%1.59%1.33%
CAD0.12%0.05%-0.10%-2.18%-0.43%-0.58%-0.82%
AUD0.55%0.45%0.30%-1.77%0.43%-0.12%-0.38%
NZD0.67%0.57%0.42%-1.59%0.58%0.12%-0.27%
CHF0.94%0.84%0.70%-1.33%0.82%0.38%0.27%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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EUR/JPY retreats as ECB holds rates, Japan steps up intervention warnings

  • EUR/JPY gives back recent gains and comes under pressure around 183.60.
  • ECB keeps rates unchanged and highlights rising uncertainty on inflation and growth.
  • Japan strengthens its intervention rhetoric, supporting the Japanese Yen.

EUR/JPY declines and trades around 183.60 at the time of writing, after hitting two-week highs above 187.50, amid mixed pressures from European monetary policy and rising intervention risks in Japan.

The European Central Bank (ECB) leaves its key interest rates unchanged at its April meeting, as expected, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.4% and the deposit facility at 2%. The central bank notes that incoming data has been broadly in line with its expectations, but warns that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified, particularly due to rising energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The ECB emphasizes a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and reiterates that it is not pre-committing to any specific rate path. It also highlights that long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, although short-term expectations have increased significantly.

On the Japanese side, pressure builds on the Japanese Yen (JPY) following firm comments from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, who signals that the time for decisive action in the foreign exchange market is approaching. These remarks come as USD/JPY moved above the key 160.00 level, reviving speculation about potential intervention by Japanese authorities to support the currency.

At the same time, rising Oil prices, driven by tensions in the Middle East, weigh on Japan’s economic outlook as a major energy importer, limiting the JPY’s upside despite intervention warnings.

In the Eurozone, macroeconomic data sends mixed signals. Germany’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter, beating expectations, but the Unemployment Rate rose to 6.4%, pointing to ongoing labor market fragility. Meanwhile, inflation in the Eurozone accelerated, with the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increasing by 3% YoY in April, above forecasts.

Market focus now shifts to the press conference of ECB President Christine Lagarde for further guidance on the future path of monetary policy.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.13%-0.25%-2.21%-0.09%-0.48%-0.61%-0.89%
EUR0.13%-0.09%-2.04%0.03%-0.33%-0.48%-0.73%
GBP0.25%0.09%-1.93%0.13%-0.23%-0.37%-0.64%
JPY2.21%2.04%1.93%2.13%1.75%1.55%1.30%
CAD0.09%-0.03%-0.13%-2.13%-0.39%-0.56%-0.80%
AUD0.48%0.33%0.23%-1.75%0.39%-0.14%-0.39%
NZD0.61%0.48%0.37%-1.55%0.56%0.14%-0.25%
CHF0.89%0.73%0.64%-1.30%0.80%0.39%0.25%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

(This story was corrected at 13:05 GMT to say that EUR/JPY was trading around 183.60, not 186.60)

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Lagarde speaks on policy outlook after leaving key rates unchanged

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB’s decision to leave key rates unchanged at the April policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

ECB press conference key quotes

“Economy was showing momentum before current turbulence.”

“Domestic demand remains main driver of growth.”

“Outlook highly uncertain.”

“Incoming info suggests that conflict is weighing on activity.”

“Business less confident about future.”

“Supply chains coming under pressure.”

“High energy to weigh on incomes.”

“High energy costs to make firms, households reluctant to invest.”

“Labour demand has cooled further.”

“Households in solid financial position.”

“Favourable starting point provides some cushioning.”

“Fiscal responses should be temporary, targeted, tailored.”

“Indicators of underlying inflation have changed little in recent months.”

“Wage tracker indicates easing labour costs.”

“Surveys indicate rise in other costs.”

“Most measures of longer term inflation expectations stand around 2%.”

“Increase in energy prices will keep inflation well above 2% in near term.”

“Will closely monitor size and impact of energy price surge.”

“Risks to growth are tilted to the downside.”

“Worsening of global market sentiment could further dampen demand.”

“Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside.”

“Not going to say whether we’re closer to any particular scenario.”

“We are certainly moving away from baseline.”

“To where exactly? I’m not sure is the most relevant assessment.”

“Most critical is what impact energy prices will have.”

“Made an informed decision of yet insufficient info.”

“Debated at length various options.”

“Decision was unanimous.”

“Debated at length a hike.”

“Some governors may argue both sides of proposals.”

“Hard data is broadly in line with projections.”

“There is such uncertainty, we need to revisit all issues at next meeting.”

“Given position we’re at, six weeks will be the right time to assess developments.