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EUR/GBP remains stalled below 0.8680 following strong UK Retail Sales data

  • EUR/GBP recovery from 0.8654 lows remains capped below 0.8680.
  • UK Retail Sales beat expectations in March, but mainly due to fuel sales.
  • The stalemate in Iran keeps the EUR and the GBP vulnerable against the US Dollar.

The Euro (EUR) remains practically flat against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, trading at 0.8675 at the time of writing, with resistance at the 0.8680 area capping Thursday’s rebound from 0.8654 lows. The strong UK retail consumption data, which has shown a larger-than-expected rebound in March, has failed to make any significant impact on the pair so far. 

Data released by National Statistics on Friday revealed that UK Retail Sales rose by 0.7% in March, following a 0.6% contraction in February, and beating expectations of a 0.2% gain. The core Retail Sales, excluding fuel and automobile sales, however, rose at a modest 0.2% pace in March, in line with the market expectations, also after a 0.6% decline in the previous month.

Higher energy costs are a concern for UK businesses and consumers

On Thursday, preliminary UK business activity showed that both the manufacturing and services sectors continued to expand at healthy levels, but costs reached their highest levels since records began, clouding the outlook for future economic activity.

Later in the day, the GfK Consumer Confidence index deteriorated to its lowest levels in three years. UK consumers have grown more pessimistic, wary that prices will continue growing amid the energy shock triggered by Iran’s war and that mortgage costs will increase, assuming that the Bank of England (BoE) will hike interest rates. These figures hurt the Pound and provided some support to a weak Euro.

In Europe, the focus on Friday is on the German IFO business climate data, which is also expected to have deteriorated in April, weighed by the higher costs of energy.

On the geopolitical front, the peace process between Iran and the US remains stalled while tensions between the two countries grow. Iran released footage of a seizure of a cargo vessel on the Strait of Hormuz, and US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy any ship mining the waterway. The escalating tensions and the absence of news about the new round of talks, scheduled for this week, are weighing both currencies against the safe-haven US Dollar.

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GBP steadies above 1.3450 following UK Retail Sales data

  • GBP/USD remains flat after UK Retail Sales rebounded 0.7% MoM in March, against a 0.1% growth expected.
  • US Dollar gains on safe-haven demand amid persistent uncertainty over the US–Iran conflict.
  • Lebanon seeks one-month ceasefire extension, though Israel’s ambassador says outcome “not 100%” certain.

GBP/USD steadies after three days of losses, trading around 1.3470 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair stays calm following the release of United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data, which rebounded 0.7% month-over-month (MoM) in March after declining by a revised 0.6% in February. The market forecast was for a 0.1% growth in the reported month.

The annual UK Retail Sales rose 1.7% in March, slightly below the prior 1.8% (revised from 2.5%) but above expectations of 1.3%. Core Retail Sales, excluding auto fuel, increased 0.2% MoM, reversing a revised 0.6% decline (from -0.4%). On an annual basis, core Retail Sales grew 1.7% in March, down from February’s 2.7% (revised from 3.4%).

The GBP/USD pair may further depreciate as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from safe-haven demand amid persistent uncertainty surrounding the United States (US)–Iran conflict. The Guardian reported on Thursday that Lebanon will push for a one-month extension of the current ceasefire with Israel during a second round of direct talks in Washington. Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Danny Danon, said in a CNN News interview on Friday that the Lebanon ceasefire extension is “not 100%”.

The US military intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers attempting to evade its blockade, as Washington presses ahead with efforts to curb Iran’s shipping. Meanwhile, Tehran continues to threaten vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. US military officials are also preparing contingency plans to target Iran’s capabilities in the Strait should the current ceasefire collapse.

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Currency Talk – EURCAD, EURUSD, GBPUSD

The Overbalance analysis aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures EURCAD Since March 10, EURCAD has been trading in an uptrend; however, during yesterday’s session, the local 1:1 bullish pattern was negated at the 1.6040 level. According to the Overbalance methodology, this may support a scenario involving a return to the downtrend. Further confirmation would be a return of the price below the 1.5948 level, i.e., back into the previous downtrend. On the other hand, a break above 1.6040 could restore the bullish scenario.

EURCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation EURUSD Since mid-March, the EURUSD has been trending upward, but in recent days we have seen a downward correction. The price is approaching key support at the 1.1650 level, which stems from the lower boundary of the local 1:1 pattern. A potential bounce at this point could lead to the generation of another upward impulse. Conversely, a sustained break below the 1.1650 level would open the way for a return to the downtrend.

EURUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation GBPUSD The GBPUSD pair is showing a situation very similar to that of the EURUSD. An uptrend has been in place since late March, but a correction has emerged in recent days. Should this correction deepen, the key support level remains at 1.3428. A break below this level could open the way for declines, which would be confirmed upon a drop below 1.3360—the polarity of the previously negated 1:1 downward geometric pattern.

GBPUSD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

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EUR/GBP posts modest gains above 0.8650 ahead of Eurozone, UK PMI releases

  • EUR/GBP posts modest gains near 0.8675 in Thursday’s early European session. 
  • The UK CPI inflation climbed to 3.3%YoY in March, driven by higher fuel costs due to the Iran war.
  • ECB’s Simkus said the central bank shouldn’t raise interest rates in April.

The EUR/GBP cross trades with mild gains around 0.8675 during the early European session on Thursday. However, the potential upside for the cross might be limited due to hot UK inflation data. Traders will keep an eye on the preliminary readings of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from the Eurozone and the United Kingdom (UK). 

Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday showed that the UK headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 3.3% YoY in March, compared to 3.0% in February. This increase marks the first official reflection of the US-Israel war with Iran on the UK’s cost of living. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy items, climbed 3.1% YoY in March, versus 3.2% prior, below the forecast of 3.2%.

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to hold the base rate at 3.75% at its next meeting on April 30, though the jump in inflation has fueled speculation of potential future hikes or delayed cuts.

The European Central Bank (ECB) officials are leaning toward leaving interest rates unchanged at the April policy meeting. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said on Wednesday that the central bank has ‘luxury’ to wait on interest rate rises. 

Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Gediminas Simkus reiterated the cautious stance regarding the ECB’s monetary policy, saying that while a rate hike in April is unlikely, the door remains open for policy tightening later this year. While a hold is expected in the April policy meeting, Barclays analysts anticipate the focus to shift toward potential 25 basis point (bps) hikes in June and September to combat an energy-driven inflation surge.

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GBP/USD Tests nine-day EMA support after slipping below 1.3500

  • GBP/USD may rebound toward the two-month high of 1.3599.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 56 indicates positive momentum without overbought conditions.
  • The immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.3493.

GBP/USD remains subdued for the third successive day, trading around 1.3500 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a potential for bearish reversal as the pair moves below the ascending channel pattern.

However, the GBP/USD pair holds a constructive bullish bias as it stays marginally above the nine-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and comfortably over the 50-period EMA. This alignment of short- and medium-term EMAs below spot hints at underlying demand. The 14-day Relative Strength Index around 56 suggests positive but not overstretched momentum, allowing room for further upside while the pair remains supported on dips.

The return to the ascending channel would lead the GBP/USD pair to test the initial barrier at the two-month high of 1.3599, recorded on April 17. Further advances would support the pair to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3810. A break above the channel would reinforce the bullish bias and support the GBP/USD pair to approach the 1.3869, the highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27.

On the downside, the GBP/USD pair is testing the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 1.3493, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.3427. A sustained break below these short- and medium-term averages would expose a nearly five-month low of 1.3159, recorded on March 31, followed by the 1.3010, the lowest since April 2025, which was recorded in November 2025.

GBP/USD: Daily Chart

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.07%0.11%0.05%0.02%0.23%0.24%0.12%
EUR-0.07%0.05%-0.02%-0.05%0.14%0.16%0.03%
GBP-0.11%-0.05%-0.06%-0.10%0.11%0.12%-0.02%
JPY-0.05%0.02%0.06%-0.04%0.19%0.17%0.06%
CAD-0.02%0.05%0.10%0.04%0.23%0.22%0.08%
AUD-0.23%-0.14%-0.11%-0.19%-0.23%0.02%-0.15%
NZD-0.24%-0.16%-0.12%-0.17%-0.22%-0.02%-0.15%
CHF-0.12%-0.03%0.02%-0.06%-0.08%0.15%0.15%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/GBP remains depressed below 0.8700 after hot UK CPI figures

  • EUR/GBP extends losses for the second consecutive day and trades below 0.8700.
  • UK consumer price figures confirm the inflationary impact of the US-Iran war.
  • In the Eurozone, ECB speakers, including President Lagarde, will grab some attention later in the day.

The Euro (EUR) is heading south for the second consecutive day against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday, trading near session lows below 0.8700, as UK inflation figures put pressure on the Bank of England to bring the possibility of an interest rate hike back to the table.

Data released by the Office for National Statistics earlier on Wednesday showed that the UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) accelerated to a 3.3% year-on-year (YoY) rate in March. These figures follow two consecutive months of prices growing steadily by 3% YoY, and highlight the inflationary impact of the Middle East war.

The monthly CPI accelerated by 0.7%, its highest level in almost one year, beating expectations of a 0.6% increase, and following a 0.4% gain in February.

Likewise, producer and retail prices have increased beyond forecasts. The Input Producer Prices Index (PPI) surged 4.4% in March and 5.4% year on year. Retail prices rose 0.8% from February and 4.1% over the last 12 months, both above market expectations of 0.7% and 3.9%, respectively.

The Bank of England (BoE) meets on April 30 and is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The upside risks to inflation, however, are likely to give hawkish committee members grounds to call for some monetary tightening down the road.

In the Eurozone, the focus on Wednesday will be on a slew of European Central Bank (ECB) speakers, including President Christine Lagarde, later in the day. The ECB is also expected to keep its monetary policy on hold at its April meeting, and therefore, they are likely to stick to the mantra of waiting for further economic data.

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EUR/GBP under pressure as Eurozone sentiment deteriorates sharply in April

  • EUR/GBP edges lower as the Pound outperforms on resilient UK labor data.
  • Weak Eurozone ZEW sentiment weighs on the Euro amid growth concerns.
  • Focus shifts to UK inflation data on Wednesday for monetary policy cues.

EUR/GBP trades on the back foot on Tuesday, with the British Pound (GBP) outperforming the Euro (EUR) following broadly resilient UK labor market data, while softer economic sentiment from the Eurozone adds further pressure on the Euro.

At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 0.8700. However, it lacks strong directional momentum and remains range-bound as traders stay cautious amid ongoing US-Iran tensions and uncertainty over potential peace talks.

European sentiment weakened notably in April, with the Eurozone’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index falling to -20.4 from -8.5 and Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index dropping to -17.2 from -0.5, both missing expectations.

The sharp drop in sentiment shows that ongoing tensions in the Middle East are starting to weigh on the Eurozone’s outlook. “Businesses are concerned about long-term shortages of energy supply, and this discourages investment and weakens the effect of government stimuli,” said ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach, commenting on the latest survey results.

Meanwhile, markets are also pricing in potential interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB), as rising Oil prices fuel inflation concerns. However, policymakers remain cautious and are not signaling any immediate policy shift. ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said on Tuesday, “I believe we need to be cautious, keep a cool head and analyse the data in a context of tremendous uncertainty.”

ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that policymakers need to gather more information before drawing firm conclusions for monetary policy.

Earlier in the day, data released by the Office for National Statistics showed that the Claimant Count Change rose by 26.8K in March, above expectations. However, other labor market indicators pointed to underlying resilience. Employment Change came in at 25K in the three months to February, while the ILO Unemployment Rate eased to 4.9% from 5.2%.

The mixed but resilient labor market data suggest that the Bank of England (BoE) can afford to remain patient on policy easing, even as markets price in the risk of rate hikes driven by higher Oil prices. UK inflation data for March, due on Wednesday, could further influence interest rate expectations.

A Reuters poll on Tuesday showed that all 62 economists expect the BoE to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75% at its April meeting. Around 53% also expect rates to remain unchanged for the rest of the year.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.22%0.12%0.18%-0.00%0.20%-0.25%0.19%
EUR-0.22%-0.10%-0.04%-0.23%-0.02%-0.48%-0.03%
GBP-0.12%0.10%0.06%-0.11%0.06%-0.38%0.07%
JPY-0.18%0.04%-0.06%-0.17%0.00%-0.48%-0.00%
CAD0.00%0.23%0.11%0.17%0.18%-0.30%0.18%
AUD-0.20%0.02%-0.06%-0.01%-0.18%-0.48%-0.01%
NZD0.25%0.48%0.38%0.48%0.30%0.48%0.47%
CHF-0.19%0.03%-0.07%0.00%-0.18%0.00%-0.47%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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GBP/USD – Falls toward 1.3500 near nine-day EMA support

  • GBP/USD may find the primary barrier at the two-month high of 1.3599.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 59 remains positive, without indicating overbought conditions.
  • The immediate support lies at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3500.

GBP/USD inches lower after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around 1.3520 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing bullish bias, as the pair moves within the ascending channel pattern.

The GBP/USD pair trades with a mildly bullish near-term bias, holding above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The short-term EMA trading above the longer one hints at constructive momentum.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 59 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, suggesting room for further gains as long as the pair remains supported on dips.

The initial barrier lies at the two-month high of 1.3599, recorded on April 17, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3750. A break above the channel would reinforce the bullish bias and support the GBP/USD pair to approach the 1.3869, the highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27.

On the downside, the GBP/USD pair may find its immediate support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3500, followed by the nine-day EMA at 1.3493. Further declines below this confluence support zone would put downward pressure on the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.3423. A sustained break below the medium-term average would expose a nearly five-month low of 1.3159, recorded on March 31, followed by the 1.3010, the lowest since April 2025, which was recorded in November 2025.

GBP/USD: Daily Chart

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.09%0.10%0.06%0.00%0.10%-0.32%0.08%
EUR-0.09%0.02%-0.02%-0.09%0.04%-0.41%0.00%
GBP-0.10%-0.02%-0.02%-0.10%0.00%-0.43%-0.01%
JPY-0.06%0.02%0.02%-0.05%0.02%-0.43%0.00%
CAD-0.00%0.09%0.10%0.05%0.08%-0.36%0.07%
AUD-0.10%-0.04%-0.01%-0.02%-0.08%-0.44%-0.01%
NZD0.32%0.41%0.43%0.43%0.36%0.44%0.43%
CHF-0.08%-0.00%0.01%-0.01%-0.07%0.00%-0.43%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).