GBP 11 - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger April 20, 2026 No Comments

Pound Sterling – GBP trades mixed at the start of UK data-packed week

The Pound Sterling trades mixed against its peers while investors await a string of UK data.
The UK’s headline CPI is expected to have risen at a faster pace of 3.3% in March.
Iran refuses to return to the table for another round of talks with the US.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) exhibits a mixed performance against its major currency peers during the European trading session on Monday. The British currency is expected to remain volatile as a slew of United Kingdom (UK) economic data is scheduled to be published this week.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.05%	-0.00%	0.19%	-0.01%	0.22%	0.09%	-0.04%
EUR	0.05%		0.05%	0.22%	0.01%	0.26%	0.14%	-0.02%
GBP	0.00%	-0.05%		0.17%	-0.02%	0.20%	0.10%	-0.07%
JPY	-0.19%	-0.22%	-0.17%		-0.18%	0.03%	-0.13%	-0.25%
CAD	0.01%	-0.01%	0.02%	0.18%		0.22%	0.07%	-0.06%
AUD	-0.22%	-0.26%	-0.20%	-0.03%	-0.22%		-0.13%	-0.28%
NZD	-0.09%	-0.14%	-0.10%	0.13%	-0.07%	0.13%		-0.14%
CHF	0.04%	0.02%	0.07%	0.25%	0.06%	0.28%	0.14%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Investors will pay close attention to the UK employment data for THE three months ending February, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales data for March to get fresh cues on the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook.

The UK employment data on Tuesday is expected to show that the Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, rose at a moderate pace of 3.5% Year-on-Year (YoY) against the previous reading of 3.8%. The ILO Unemployment Rate is seen as steady at 5.2%.

The inflation report on Wednesday will likely demonstrate a strong growth in the headline CPI by 3% YoY, against 3% in February, in the wake of higher energy prices due to the war in the Middle East. On Friday, the UK Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, is estimated to have risen 0.2% on a monthly basis after declining 0.4% in February.

Meanwhile, the recent commentary from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week, suggests that the central bank will hold interest rates steady in the policy meeting on April 30. Bailey said that there is “no rush” for monetary policy adjustments despite a negative energy shock.

This week, investors will also focus on the preliminary UK S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April, which will be released on Thursday.

Against the US Dollar (USD), the Pound Sterling recovers a majority of its early losses and rebounds to near 1.3515. However, the outlook of the GBP/USD pair remains uncertain amid uncertainty surrounding the occurrence of another round of talks between the United States (US) and Iran.

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said during the day that there is “no plan for a second round of negotiations with the United States (US) for now.

(This story was corrected at 11:30 GMT to say in the third paragraph that Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, rose at a moderate pace of 3.5% Year-on-Year (YoY) against the previous reading of 3.8% and not the previous reading of 3.5%)

Currency Hedger April 20, 2026 No Comments

GBP/USD: Political noise and softer BoE pricing – ING

ING’s Chris Turner notes Sterling has held up even as markets scale back Bank of England tightening expectations to just one 25bp hike this year, while ING expects no change in rates. Political scrutiny of Prime Minister Keir Starmer could weigh on sentiment. ING warns GBP/USD may surrender recent gains, eyeing 1.3380/1.3400 as an initial downside target.

Sterling resilience faces policy and politics

“Sterling has been performing reasonably well despite the market removing a lot of the expected Bank of England tightening this year. The market still prices one 25bp hike this year, while our team sees unchanged rates. That hike may not be priced out until oil prices drop, however.”

“There is also the small matter of politics in the UK. Prime Minister Keir Starmer will today make a statement in parliament to potentially correct the record on the approval process for the former UK ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson.”

“This will be a tough session for PM Starmer and one which will extend into tomorrow, when the top civil servant involved in the approval process also appears at a parliamentary hearing.”

“GBP/USD could well hand back a big chunk of recent gains this week, with a first target being around the 1.3380/3400 area.”

Currency Hedger April 20, 2026 No Comments

EUR/GBP edges up above 0.8700 with UK’s PM Starmer in question

The Euro appreciates against a weaker Pound as pressure on UK Prime Minister Starmer grows.
Markets opened the week in a cautious tone with the US-Iran peace process on tenterhooks.
German PPI rose 2.5% in March, its strongest reading since August 2022.

The Euro (EUR) advances on Monday against a somewhat weaker British Pound (GBP), as the UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, heads to the House of Commons to answer questions about former US ambassador Peter Mandelson’s vetting process.

Lord Mandelson’s appointment caused a scandal last year, due to his ties with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Opposition parties are blaming Starmer for failing the security vetting for the position and calling on him to resign for misleading parliament on previous statements related to the appointment.

Cautious markets with the US-Iran peace process teetering

The market, meanwhile, remains cautious, with most currencies trading within previous ranges as the US and Iran exchange threats, with the second round of peace talks in question. The US has seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian authorities said that they might not attend the peace talks scheduled for next Tuesday due to US violations of the ceasefire.

In Europe, German Producer Prices Index (PPI) data revealed that inflation at factory gates jumped 2.5% in March, its highest monthly reading in nearly four years, confirming the inflationary impact of the war in the Middle East. Year-on-year, the PPI contracted 0.2% following a 3.3% drop in February.

In the UK, the economic calendar is thin on Monday, with the focus on February’s employment report due on Tuesday. Jobless claimants are expected to have eased to a 21.4K increase, from 24.7K in January, while the Unemployment rate is seen steady at 5.2%, and wage inflation is easing somewhat. This will provide the Bank of England with some margin to keep interest rates on hold for some time.

Currency Hedger April 17, 2026 No Comments

Pound Sterling declines as BoE hike bets ease

GBP/USD stays pressured as traders trim BoE hike bets amid optimism of easing Middle East tensions.
BoE’s Bailey said that the central bank won’t rush rate decisions amid the energy shock from the Iran conflict.
Lebanon’s army recorded multiple Israeli ceasefire violations after the truce took effect.

GBP/USD loses ground for the third successive day, trading around 1.3520 during the Asian hours on Friday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains under pressure as traders pare back expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike, amid increasing optimism that tensions in the Middle East may be easing.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey told BBC News on Thursday that the central bank is “not going to rush to judgments” on interest rate increases as global policymakers navigate an energy price shock driven by the Iran conflict. Bailey noted that while higher oil and gas prices will feed into inflation, other factors make rate decisions “very, very difficult.”

BoE policymaker Megan Greene said in a Bloomberg TV interview on Wednesday that markets were justified in scaling back bets on rate hikes following last month’s surge. Greene indicated that the current market pricing, suggesting two or fewer rate increases this year, is “about right.”

The GBP/USD pair also declines as the US Dollar (USD) edges higher, supported by increased safe-haven demand following a CNN report that the Lebanese army recorded multiple ceasefire violations by Israel after the truce came into effect. US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire that started at 5 PM ET.

Lebanon accused Israel of carrying out “a number of acts of aggression,” noting that intermittent shelling has affected several villages in southern Lebanon. The army also urged residents to delay returning to southern towns and villages amid the reported ceasefire breaches.

However, market sentiment could improve as Washington and Tehran are expected to resume discussions over the weekend, with President Trump maintaining an optimistic tone on the chances that both sides could secure a lasting ceasefire before its expiration next week.

Currency Hedger April 16, 2026 No Comments

Trade of the day: GBPCHF (16.04.2026)

Facts

GBPCHF pair moved back above the 14-day exponential moving average (EMA14; light purple) yesterday, despite a brief dip below 1.058 during the early session.
One week Risk Reversal indicator has reached its highest level since July 2024.
RSI is currently oscillating between 50 and 60.

Recommendation

Long Position (BUY) at market price in GBPCHF
Target Prices (Take Profit): 1.06340 (TP1), 1.06645 (TP2)
Stop Loss (SL): 1.05400

Source: xStation5

Opinion

The GBPCHF sell-off triggered by the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East capped months of Sterling weakness, driven by growth concerns and expectations of UK rate cuts. Approximately one week after the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, the pair initiated an upward trajectory. This shift is supported by the UK’s significant exposure to surging natural gas prices, which increases the risk of an inflationary rebound and a return to interest rate hikes.

Following a correction earlier this week, the pair is gradually rebounding, confirming the ongoing trend. While the UK still faces a high risk of stagflation, today’s GDP data (+0.5% m/m; exceeding the Reuters consensus of 0.1%) has somewhat cooled recession fears amid energy price inflation. Growing optimism is also reflected in the options market: the 1-week Risk Reversal is at its highest since July 2024, indicating a decrease in hedging demand against Sterling declines (i.e., fewer PUT options).

Sterling should remain supported against the Franc in the short term, regardless of further developments in the Strait of Hormuz. In an escalation scenario, concerns over energy price pressure would exert symmetrical pressure on the Bank of England to resume rate hikes (the market currently prices one 25 bps hike for September). Conversely, de-escalation would reduce fears of economic stagnation and dampen demand for safe-haven assets, including the Franc. It is worth noting that the Franc also lost ground against the Dollar in March, suggesting it was not the primary choice for investors seeking a “safe harbor” for capital.

Methodology

This recommendation was prepared based on a technical analysis of the GBPCHF chart and a fundamental analysis of the respective economies (focusing on UK monetary policy).

Directional Bias: Established using moving averages, price action, and market expectations regarding central bank responses to the Middle East conflict.
Exit Strategy: Target and Stop Loss levels were determined using Fibonacci retracements of the latest downward leg, Bollinger Bands, and Price Action. TP1: Set at the 78.6% Fibonacci level, coinciding with the upper Bollinger Band on the 14-day interval. TP2: Set at the resistance level established between February 2nd and 3rd. Stop Loss: Placed at the 50% Fibonacci level, which coincides with the lower Bollinger Band and the 50-day EMA.
TP1: Set at the 78.6% Fibonacci level, coinciding with the upper Bollinger Band on the 14-day interval.
TP2: Set at the resistance level established between February 2nd and 3rd.
Stop Loss: Placed at the 50% Fibonacci level, which coincides with the lower Bollinger Band and the 50-day EMA.

Currency Hedger April 16, 2026 No Comments

GBP gains against its peers as UK GDP data beats estimates

The Pound Sterling gains buyers’ interest after the release of the stronger-than-expected UK monthly GDP data for February.
UK monthly GDP grew at a robust pace of 0.5% vs. 0.1% estimates.
US-Iran truce hopes have battered the US Dollar badly.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) attracts bids against its major currency peers, trading 0.14% higher to near 1.3580 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday after the release of the stronger-than-projected United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for February.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported that economy grew 0.5% Month-on-Month (MoM), while it was expected to grow steadily by 0.1%. January’s figure revised higher from 0% to 0.1%.

UK’s Industrial Production data for February has also come in better-than-expected. The data arrives higher at 0.5% against estimates of 0.2%. In January, Industrial Production declined by 0.1%. However, MoM Manufacturing Production has surprisingly contracted by 0.1%, while it was expected to have grown at a faster pace of 0.3% after rising 0.1% in January.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar has been battered badly by optimism that the United States (US) and Iran could announce a permanent ceasefire soon. During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades almost flat around 98.00. In the Asian trade, the USD Index posted a fresh six-week low at 97.83.

US-Iran truce hopes are boosted by comments from Washington that both nations are close to end the war soon. On early Wednesday, US President Donald Trump told in an interview with Fox Business, “I think it’s close to over, yeah. I view it as very close to being over,” when asked about how long the war with Iran will remain.

Currency Hedger April 16, 2026 No Comments

UK GDP climbs by 0.5% MoM in February vs. 0.1% expected

The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.5% MoM in February, following a 0% reported in January, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Thursday.

The market forecast was for a 0.1% rise in the same period.

Meanwhile, the Index of services (February) rose 0.5% 3M/3M versus January’s 0.2%.

Other data from the UK showed that monthly Industrial Production climbed by 0.5% MoM in February, while Manufacturing Production declined by 0.1% during the same period.

Market reaction to the UK data

The Pound Sterling attracts some buyers following the UK data. At the press time, the GBP/USD pair is gaining 0.13% on the day to trade at 1.3578.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.04%	-0.12%	-0.11%	-0.11%	-0.22%	0.03%	-0.08%
EUR	0.04%		-0.09%	-0.06%	-0.08%	-0.18%	0.03%	-0.04%
GBP	0.12%	0.09%		0.04%	-0.00%	-0.10%	0.12%	0.04%
JPY	0.11%	0.06%	-0.04%		-0.03%	-0.11%	0.07%	0.02%
CAD	0.11%	0.08%	0.00%	0.03%		-0.10%	0.12%	0.04%
AUD	0.22%	0.18%	0.10%	0.11%	0.10%		0.21%	0.16%
NZD	-0.03%	-0.03%	-0.12%	-0.07%	-0.12%	-0.21%		-0.08%
CHF	0.08%	0.04%	-0.04%	-0.02%	-0.04%	-0.16%	0.08%

This section was published on Thursday at 04:31 GMT as a preview of UK GDP data.

The UK Economic Data Overview

Thursday’s UK economic docket features the release of the monthly GDP print, alongside the Trade Balance and Industrial Production, all of which will be published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) at 06:00 GMT.

The UK economy is expected to have expanded by 0.1% in February, up from a flat reading in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing Production, which makes up around 80% of total Industrial Production, is anticipated to show a 0.3% MoM rise, up from a modest of 0.1% increase in January. Meanwhile, the total Industrial Production seems to be coming in at 0.0% MoM in February as compared to the previous reading of -0.1%.

On an annualized basis, the Industrial Production is expected to have contracted by 0.9 versus 0.4% growth in the previous month, while the manufacturing output is also anticipated to have fallen by 0.3% in the reported month, versus 1.3% last month. Simultaneously, the UK Goods Trade Balance will be reported and is anticipated to show a deficit of £20.02 billion in February vs a £14.449 billion deficit reported in the previous month.

How could the UK data affect GBP/USD?

A surprisingly stronger UK macro data could benefit the British Pound (GBP). In contrast, any disappointment is more likely to be overshadowed by expectations that the war-driven surge in energy prices will revive inflation and force the Bank of England (BoE) to adopt a more hawkish stance. This, along with the prevailing US Dollar (USD) selling bias, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the upside.

GBP/USD daily chart

Technical Analysis:

The recent breakout through the 1.3415-1.3425 confluence resistance– comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-March fall – was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, the subsequent strength beyond the 1.3500 psychological mark, which coincided with the 50% retracement level, validates the near-term positive outlook for the GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, momentum indicators also back the positive bias. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 63, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is positioned above zero with an expanding positive histogram. This hints that buyers still have the upper hand as long as price holds above the resistance breakpoints, though bulls might still await a move beyond the 61.8% Fibo. level.

Currency Hedger April 15, 2026 No Comments

Currency Talk – EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, AUD/USD (April 15, 2026)

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures. EURAUD The EURAUD exchange rate had been in a downtrend for quite some time. However, between March and April, we observed a significant upward correction that broke through the largest corrective pattern, suggesting a potential trend reversal. Ultimately, it turned out to be merely a corrective move within the downtrend, and the price is once again attempting to resume its decline. In the short term, the local 1:1 upward pattern was negated at the 1.6680 level, which was subsequently tested from the other side. Currently, the price is attempting to fall below the 1.6545 level, where the polarity of the previously negated 1:1 downward pattern is located. If this level holds as resistance, the base case scenario will be a continuation of the decline, potentially even toward 1.6135. Conversely, a return above 1.6680 could pave the way for a shift to an uptrend.

EURAUD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation EURGBP The EURGBP pair hit a local low around 0.8617, after which it attempted to generate a stronger upward move. Currently, however, there appears to be an issue with sustaining the rally. The price is oscillating around the key level of 0.8693, which previously acted as support. Retests of this level could result in its rejection and a return to declines. If the price remains above 0.8693, another upward impulse may be generated. Otherwise, the base scenario will be a retest of the lows around 0.8617.

EURGBP – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation AUDUSD Since late March, AUDUSD has been trading within a local uptrend. Two corrections of similar magnitude—around 100 pips—are visible, confirming a market structure consistent with the Overbalance methodology. A local uptrend has been in place since the low on March 30, and as long as the geometric pattern is not negated, further gains remain the base case scenario. In the event of a correction, the key support level is 0.7043, derived from the lower boundary of the 1:1 pattern.

AUDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

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