The Pound Sterling gains buyers’ interest after the release of the stronger-than-expected UK monthly GDP data for February.
UK monthly GDP grew at a robust pace of 0.5% vs. 0.1% estimates.
US-Iran truce hopes have battered the US Dollar badly.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) attracts bids against its major currency peers, trading 0.14% higher to near 1.3580 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday after the release of the stronger-than-projected United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for February.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported that economy grew 0.5% Month-on-Month (MoM), while it was expected to grow steadily by 0.1%. January’s figure revised higher from 0% to 0.1%.
UK’s Industrial Production data for February has also come in better-than-expected. The data arrives higher at 0.5% against estimates of 0.2%. In January, Industrial Production declined by 0.1%. However, MoM Manufacturing Production has surprisingly contracted by 0.1%, while it was expected to have grown at a faster pace of 0.3% after rising 0.1% in January.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar has been battered badly by optimism that the United States (US) and Iran could announce a permanent ceasefire soon. During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades almost flat around 98.00. In the Asian trade, the USD Index posted a fresh six-week low at 97.83.
US-Iran truce hopes are boosted by comments from Washington that both nations are close to end the war soon. On early Wednesday, US President Donald Trump told in an interview with Fox Business, “I think it’s close to over, yeah. I view it as very close to being over,” when asked about how long the war with Iran will remain.
The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.5% MoM in February, following a 0% reported in January, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Thursday.
The market forecast was for a 0.1% rise in the same period.
Meanwhile, the Index of services (February) rose 0.5% 3M/3M versus January’s 0.2%.
Other data from the UK showed that monthly Industrial Production climbed by 0.5% MoM in February, while Manufacturing Production declined by 0.1% during the same period.
Market reaction to the UK data
The Pound Sterling attracts some buyers following the UK data. At the press time, the GBP/USD pair is gaining 0.13% on the day to trade at 1.3578.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.04%
-0.12%
-0.11%
-0.11%
-0.22%
0.03%
-0.08%
EUR
0.04%
-0.09%
-0.06%
-0.08%
-0.18%
0.03%
-0.04%
GBP
0.12%
0.09%
0.04%
-0.00%
-0.10%
0.12%
0.04%
JPY
0.11%
0.06%
-0.04%
-0.03%
-0.11%
0.07%
0.02%
CAD
0.11%
0.08%
0.00%
0.03%
-0.10%
0.12%
0.04%
AUD
0.22%
0.18%
0.10%
0.11%
0.10%
0.21%
0.16%
NZD
-0.03%
-0.03%
-0.12%
-0.07%
-0.12%
-0.21%
-0.08%
CHF
0.08%
0.04%
-0.04%
-0.02%
-0.04%
-0.16%
0.08%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
This section was published on Thursday at 04:31 GMT as a preview of UK GDP data.
The UK Economic Data Overview
Thursday’s UK economic docket features the release of the monthly GDP print, alongside the Trade Balance and Industrial Production, all of which will be published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) at 06:00 GMT.
The UK economy is expected to have expanded by 0.1% in February, up from a flat reading in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing Production, which makes up around 80% of total Industrial Production, is anticipated to show a 0.3% MoM rise, up from a modest of 0.1% increase in January. Meanwhile, the total Industrial Production seems to be coming in at 0.0% MoM in February as compared to the previous reading of -0.1%.
On an annualized basis, the Industrial Production is expected to have contracted by 0.9 versus 0.4% growth in the previous month, while the manufacturing output is also anticipated to have fallen by 0.3% in the reported month, versus 1.3% last month. Simultaneously, the UK Goods Trade Balance will be reported and is anticipated to show a deficit of £20.02 billion in February vs a £14.449 billion deficit reported in the previous month.
How could the UK data affect GBP/USD?
A surprisingly stronger UK macro data could benefit the British Pound (GBP). In contrast, any disappointment is more likely to be overshadowed by expectations that the war-driven surge in energy prices will revive inflation and force the Bank of England (BoE) to adopt a more hawkish stance. This, along with the prevailing US Dollar (USD) selling bias, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the upside.
GBP/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis:
The recent breakout through the 1.3415-1.3425 confluence resistance– comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-March fall – was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, the subsequent strength beyond the 1.3500 psychological mark, which coincided with the 50% retracement level, validates the near-term positive outlook for the GBP/USD pair.
Meanwhile, momentum indicators also back the positive bias. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 63, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is positioned above zero with an expanding positive histogram. This hints that buyers still have the upper hand as long as price holds above the resistance breakpoints, though bulls might still await a move beyond the 61.8% Fibo. level.
This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures. EURAUD The EURAUD exchange rate had been in a downtrend for quite some time. However, between March and April, we observed a significant upward correction that broke through the largest corrective pattern, suggesting a potential trend reversal. Ultimately, it turned out to be merely a corrective move within the downtrend, and the price is once again attempting to resume its decline. In the short term, the local 1:1 upward pattern was negated at the 1.6680 level, which was subsequently tested from the other side. Currently, the price is attempting to fall below the 1.6545 level, where the polarity of the previously negated 1:1 downward pattern is located. If this level holds as resistance, the base case scenario will be a continuation of the decline, potentially even toward 1.6135. Conversely, a return above 1.6680 could pave the way for a shift to an uptrend.
EURAUD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation EURGBP The EURGBP pair hit a local low around 0.8617, after which it attempted to generate a stronger upward move. Currently, however, there appears to be an issue with sustaining the rally. The price is oscillating around the key level of 0.8693, which previously acted as support. Retests of this level could result in its rejection and a return to declines. If the price remains above 0.8693, another upward impulse may be generated. Otherwise, the base scenario will be a retest of the lows around 0.8617.
EURGBP – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation AUDUSD Since late March, AUDUSD has been trading within a local uptrend. Two corrections of similar magnitude—around 100 pips—are visible, confirming a market structure consistent with the Overbalance methodology. A local uptrend has been in place since the low on March 30, and as long as the geometric pattern is not negated, further gains remain the base case scenario. In the event of a correction, the key support level is 0.7043, derived from the lower boundary of the 1:1 pattern.
AUDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation
The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.
This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where a reversal might occur. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.
GBPUSD GBPUSD prices have been trending downward for quite some time, but on April 8, the 1:1 geometry was negated, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, paves the way for a larger correction or even a shift to an uptrend. Currently, the 1.3360–1.3355 zone should be treated as key support, where both the polarity of the negated downward geometry and the lower boundary of the local 1:1 upward pattern are located. As long as the price remains above this zone, the bullish sentiment prevails. Only a drop below 1.3355 could push the market back toward declines.
GBPUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation
GBPJPY GBPJPY has been in an uptrend for some time now. The last two corrections were of identical magnitude, as indicated by the green rectangles, confirming the market’s rhythm in line with the Overbalance methodology. Currently, the price is trading near local highs. In the event of a correction, the key support level remains at 212.33, derived from the 1:1 ratio. At this point, there are no clear supply signals, so the base case scenario remains a continuation of the uptrend.
GBPJPY – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation
USDCHF The USDCHF pair rebounded from key resistance at the 0.8042 level, which stems from the largest corrective pattern within the downtrend that has been ongoing since January 2025. Additionally, the price fell below the 0.7902 level, which is the upper boundary of a smaller 1:1 pattern; according to the Overbalance methodology, this supports the scenario of further declines toward the January lows. To signal a shift to an uptrend, prices would need to break above the 0.8042 level; however, this is not the base case scenario at this time.
USDCHF – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation
The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.
This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis relies solely on the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine points where a trend may continue or where a reversal might occur. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.
GBPUSD The GBPUSD price has broken its downward trend by rising above the 1.3360 level, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, paves the way for a larger upward correction or even a trend reversal. Currently, the 1.3360 level—the upper boundary of the negated 1:1 geometry—serves as key support. Conversely, for a return to the downtrend, the price would also need to fall below the 1.3315 level, where the lower boundary of the local 1:1 uptrend pattern is located.
GBPUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation
AUDNZD The AUDNZD pair has been in an uptrend for quite some time. The latest correction was exactly the same size as the previous ones, marked by the green rectangle. We are currently observing a local corrective move. If the correction continues, key support based on the Overbalance methodology is at the 0.6992 level, where the lower boundary of the 1:1 pattern is located. As long as the price remains above this level, the uptrend remains in effect.
AUDNZD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation
USDCHF USDCHF prices have been trending downward for quite some time, but since late January we have seen a dynamic upward correction. Currently, the price has rebounded from a key resistance level at 0.8042, where the upper boundary of the largest 1:1 pattern is located, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, may signal a return to the downtrend. For this scenario to be confirmed, the price should sustainably fall below the 0.7902 level, where the lower boundary of the smaller pattern is located. In that case, a acceleration of the decline toward recent lows would be possible. Conversely, a break above the 0.8042 level would open the way for further gains.
USDCHF – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation
The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.
GBP/USD attracts some sellers as Hormuz risks act as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD.
The divergent BoE-Fed policy expectations favor bulls and act as a tailwind for spot prices.
Traders also seem reluctant and opt to wait for the crucial US consumer inflation figures.
The GBP/USD pair drifts lower during the Asian session on Friday, though it lacks follow-through selling and remains close to its highest level since late February, set earlier this week. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3420-1.3415 region and seem poised to register strong weekly gains as investors now look to the latest US consumer inflation figures for a fresh impetus.
The crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show that inflation likely rose further in March amid the war-driven surge in Crude Oil prices. This could further discourage the US Federal Reserve (Fed) from cutting interest rates for a while. Adding to this, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz offer some support to the US Dollar (USD), which is seen as a key factor exerting some pressure on the GBP/USD pair.
Iran halted shipping traffic through the strategic waterway in response to brutal Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump accused Iran of doing a very poor job of handling oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and that it was not the agreement they had. Trump also warned of renewed strikes if the Iran deal fails. This suggests that escalation risks remain on the table and supports Crude Oil prices.
Meanwhile, traders have sharply reduced Bank of England (BoE) rate hike bets and are now pricing in roughly 30-40 basis points (bps) of increases by the year-end. This still marks a significant divergence in comparison to the Fed’s signal for one interest rate reduction by the end of this year and another in 2027. This, in turn, favors the GBP/USD bulls and warrants some caution before positioning for any further losses.
GBP/USD consolidates around 1.3400 as Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon renew Middle East war uncertainty.
Iran’s Qalibaf warns that the US has violated three clauses of the 10-point proposal.
Investors await the US CPI data for March, which will be released on Friday.
The Pound Sterling trades in a tight range around 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair consolidates as investors doubt over the sustainability of the ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran on early Wednesday in the wake of continued attacks by Israel on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.
In response, Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that it would be “unreasonable” to continue permanent ceasefire talks with the US as it has violated three clauses of the 10-point proposal so far.
This has renewed fears of a prolonged war in the Middle East, weighing on risk-sensitive assets. As of writing, S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% to near 6,770. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 99.05.
On the macro front, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be released on Friday. The data is expected to show that the headline CPI grew at a faster pace of 3.3% Year-on-Year (YoY) against the prior reading of 2.4%.
GBP/USD technical analysis
GBP/USD trades sideways around 1.3400 in Thursday’s Asian session. The pair holds a modest bullish bias as spot remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3325, suggesting downside attempts would be absorbed near that dynamic floor.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 54 leans slightly positive, hinting that buyers retain the near-term initiative while momentum improves gradually.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.3325, where a break would weaken the constructive tone and expose a deeper pullback. With no nearby technical resistances from the provided dataset, further gains would likely meet selling interest at prior swing highs on the broader chart, though the current structure leaves the path of least resistance tilted to the upside as long as price holds above the 1.3325 area.
GBP/USD rises as the US Dollar weakens on reduced safe-haven demand after a US-Iran two-week ceasefire.
Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, conditional on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
US-Iran ceasefire lowers oil prices, easing inflation pressures and giving the BoE room to resume policy easing.
GBP/USD extends its winning streak for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.3400 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) declines on decreased safe-haven demand after the United States (US) and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire.
However, the GBP/USD pair’s upside may be limited as the Pound Sterling (GBP) could struggle after the US-Iran ceasefire eased oil prices, dampening inflation pressures and giving the Bank of England (BoE) room to resume easing. Prior to the conflict, markets had priced in two to three rate cuts for 2026, expectations that were later erased by the energy-driven inflation shock.
US President Donald Trump shared in a post on Truth Social late Tuesday that he’d agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran on the condition that Iran agree to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz. A White House official said that Israel has also agreed to the ceasefire.
Moreover, an Iranian official said that negotiations with the US will be held in Islamabad, Pakistan, to finalize details, aiming to confirm Iran’s battlefield achievements politically within a maximum of 15 days. Iran added that the meeting will begin on Friday and may be extended if both sides agree.
However, Iranian attacks continue in the Middle East and Israel as missile alerts keep sounding. The Israeli military said it has identified missiles launched from Iran towards Israel. The Qatar Defence Ministry also confirmed that armed forces intercepted the missile attack targeting Qatar.
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