Currency Hedger No Comments

Trade of The Day – GBP/JPY – Long GBP/JPY at market price Target: 215.85

Facts:

The pair reached the lower limit of 1:1 structure at 215.14 Main trend on the pair remains upward

Recommendation:

Trade: Long GBPJPY at market price Target: 215.85, 216.30 Stop: 214.90

Opinion:

Looking at GBPJPY chart, one can observe that the price reached the key technical support today. This support is marked with the lower limit of 1:1 structure (green rectangles), as well as 200-period moving average. In addition the bullish candlestick pattern – pin bar appeared on the H1 chart. Should buyers manage to hold the price above the support at 215.14, another upward impulse may be on the cards. We recommend taking a long position on GBPJPY at market price with two targets: 215.85 and 216.30 We recommend placing a stop loss order at 214.90.

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/GBP flat lines above 0.8650 as markets await BoE, ECB rate decisions

  • EUR/GBP holds steady around 0.8660 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
  • BoE is expected to hold rates steady despite inflation risk. 
  • Markets anticipate the ECB holding the key rates on Thursday.

The EUR/GBP cross trades on a flat note near 0.8660 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions later on Thursday. 

The BoE is likely to keep interest rates steady at 3.75% at its April policy meeting on Thursday as policymakers buy time to assess the risks stemming from the energy crunch. BoE governor Andrew Bailey said in the last meeting that, given the UK’s weak labor market and a lack of corporate pricing power, there was no immediate need to change policy. 

However, a UK economist at JPMorgan pointed to strong business activity readings and expansion in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in February as underscoring the inflation risks.  “We expect the BoE to create space for a potential near-term hike, with incoming data determining whether and when it will act,” he said. 

The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rates unchanged at its next meeting on Thursday. While rates are expected to hold, markets anticipate the ECB may signal future hikes to combat persistent inflation. All eyes will be on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference after the meeting for clues about the outlook for rates.

Goldman Sachs analysts see the ECB delivering two 25 basis point (bps) rate hikes in the months ahead. The first being in June, with the next in September, in bringing the deposit rate back to 2.50%.

Currency Hedger No Comments

GBP/JPY slides to 215.25 after BoJ’s hawkish pause; downside seems limited

  • GBP/JPY retreats further from a multi-year top as the BoJ’s hawkish outlook boosts the JPY.
  • A 6-3 vote split and upward revision of inflation forecasts keep BoJ rate hike bets on the table.
  • Bets for two BoE rate hikes by late 2026 should support the GBP and limit losses for spot prices.

The GBP/JPY cross attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday and, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day winning streak to its highest level since January 2008, just above the 216.00 mark touched the previous day. Spot prices touch a fresh daily low, around the 215.25 region, amid a goodish pickup in demand for the Japanese Yen (JPY) following the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy decision.

As was widely expected, the Japanese central bank left the short-term interest rate unadjusted at 0.75%. The JPY, however, gains strong positive traction in reaction to a hawkish vote split, with three board members voting for a rate hike. Furthermore, the BoJ delivered a significantly more hawkish inflation outlook amid elevated Crude Oil prices and acknowledged that the Iran war is clouding the economic growth trajectory.

Meanwhile, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that Crude Oil volatility is feeding into FX markets and affecting the broader economy. Katayama also warned that authorities were ready to take decisive action against speculative activity, fueling intervention fears and underpinning the JPY. Moreover, a firmer US Dollar (USD) weighs on the British Pound (GBP), which contributes to the GBP/JPY pair’s intraday slide.

Any meaningful GBP downfall, however, seems elusive in the wake of rising bets for two Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hikes by late 2026. Furthermore, investors remain worried that Japan’s economy will come under substantial strains as the risk to energy supplies remains due to continued disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This, in turn, could support the GBP/JPY cross and help limit losses.

Currency Hedger No Comments

GBP softens as markets await Fed and BoE rate decisions

  • GBP/USD drifts lower to near 1.3525 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
  • Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% at its April meeting on Wednesday.
  • The BoE is likely to keep rates on hold on Thursday. 

The GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3525 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) softens against the US Dollar (USD) as traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) later this week. 

The Fed is likely to keep the federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75%, where it has sat since January. Deutsche Bank analysts noted a repricing of Fed policy toward a more hawkish stance, driven by persistent oil-related inflation. 

Traders will closely watch Jerome Powell’s press conference after the meeting for fresh impetus. Any hawkish comments from Fed officials could provide some support to the Greenback and create a headwind for the major pair. 

Markets expect the UK central bank to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, and traders will be watching for any signs ‌it is moving towards raising rates. Analysts see the UK economy as particularly vulnerable to the rise in energy prices caused by the war due to the country’s heavy use of natural gas.

“Our baseline forecast assumes Bank Rate will remain on hold for the rest of the year,” said Edward Allenby, senior UK economist at Oxford Economics. “The committee will have more information about how the energy shock is feeding through to the economy by the end-July meeting,” Allenby added.  

Currency Hedger No Comments

GBP/JPY slips as UK political risk pressures Pound, Yen weakness limits losses

  • GBP/JPY trims intraday gains as the British Pound softens on UK political uncertainty.
  • Markets await the BoE and BoJ monetary policy decisions due this week.
  • Technicals remain bullish above key SMAs, though momentum shows signs of cooling.

GBP/JPY gives back part of its earlier gains on Monday as the British Pound (GBP) comes under pressure following reports that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will face a parliamentary vote on a possible probe into whether he misled lawmakers over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States.

However, the downside remains limited as the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to underperform most of its major peers, with elevated Oil prices weighing on the currency given Japan’s heavy reliance on imported energy.

At the time of writing, GBP/JPY is trading around 215.67, easing slightly after hitting 216.06, its highest level since January 2008, while the wide interest rate differential between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) keeps the broader bias tilted to the upside.

Attention now turns to upcoming monetary policy meetings due this week, with both the BoE and the BoJ widely expected to hold rates steady as policymakers assess the impact of rising Oil prices on inflation and economic growth.

The BoJ’s slow pace of policy normalization is likely to keep the Yen on the defensive, although lingering intervention risks could limit further weakness amid repeated warnings from Japanese officials, with USD/JPY hovering close to the 160 mark.

In the daily chart, GBP/JPY keeps a bullish near-term bias as it holds well above both the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at 213.60 and the 50-day SMA at 212.24. The positive but moderating Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 65 and a still-positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram hint that upside momentum persists, though the pace of the advance is losing some steam as the cross consolidates near recent highs.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 21-day SMA at 213.60, with a deeper pullback likely finding additional demand near the 50-day SMA at 212.24. As long as GBP/JPY holds above these moving averages, the broader bullish structure remains intact, and any dips toward this support band may be treated as corrective rather than signaling a sustained reversal.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.14%-0.08%-0.06%-0.43%-0.49%-0.51%-0.03%
EUR0.14%0.08%0.09%-0.28%-0.32%-0.35%0.13%
GBP0.08%-0.08%0.00%-0.38%-0.43%-0.45%0.05%
JPY0.06%-0.09%0.00%-0.35%-0.42%-0.46%0.09%
CAD0.43%0.28%0.38%0.35%-0.06%-0.10%0.41%
AUD0.49%0.32%0.43%0.42%0.06%-0.01%0.47%
NZD0.51%0.35%0.45%0.46%0.10%0.01%0.49%
CHF0.03%-0.13%-0.05%-0.09%-0.41%-0.47%-0.49%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/GBP: Loses momentum as BoE turns hawkish – MUFG

MUFG analysts note that EUR/GBP has drifted lower within a 0.8600–0.8800 range as the Pound (GBP) outperforms the Euro (EUR). The euro-zone faces weaker PMIs and rising stagflation risks, while stronger United Kingdom (UK) data and sticky inflation have markets pricing more BoE tightening. They see scope for several Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members to vote for a hike, keeping EUR/GBP under pressure.

Pound supported by stronger UK data

“The initial negative impact of the energy price shock on the euro‑zone economy was evident in the latest PMI surveys for April. The surveys showed that business confidence fell sharply in the services sector, while holding up better among manufacturers. The euro‑zone services PMI declined by 2.8 points to 47.4 in April, whereas the manufacturing PMI rose by 0.6 points to 52.2.”

“For the euro‑zone economy as a whole, the composite PMI dropped by 2.1 points to 48.6, marking its weakest level since November 2024. The index has now fallen by 3.3 points since February, prior to the Middle East conflict. Business confidence has deteriorated more quickly than during the previous energy price shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and is already at much weaker levels.”

“The GBP has held up better than the EUR over the past week, placing modest downward pressure on EUR/GBP, although the pair has remained within a relatively tight 0.8600–0.8800 range since the conflict began. The GBP has been supported by further evidence that the UK economy started the year with more underlying momentum than previously expected, while the initial negative impact of the energy price shock has so far appeared limited.”

“Stronger growth momentum has increased the risk of a hawkish policy update from the BoE this week. The UK rate market has moved to price back in more tightening from the BoE, and the uplift for UK yields has provided more support for the GBP. The 2-year government bond yield in the UK has increased by around 30bps from the recent low compared to around 20bps in the euro-zone and just over 10bps in the US.”

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/GBP – Hesitation above 0.8655 with bears still in control

  • EUR/GBP bounced up from lows near 0.8650 but remains capped below 0.8670 so far.
  • Weak German consumer confidence data has weighed on the Euro across the board.
  • Technical indicators show a waning bearish pressure.

The Euro (EUR) is trimming some losses against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday after finding support at the 0.8655 area late last week. Upside attempts, however, remain capped below a previous support area at 0.8670 so far, which leaves the broader bearish trend in play for now.

Data from Germany released earlier on Monday revealed that consumer confidence for May, as measured by the GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, deteriorated to its weakest level since February 2023, amid the consequences of the war in Iran. The impact of these figures on the Euro, however, has been cushioned by a mild risk appetite, fuelled by news of ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran to end the Middle East conflict. This is keeping the Euro and the Pound moderately positive against the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).

Technical Analysis: Bears are losing momentum

EUR/GBP Chart Analysis

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart shows the EUR/GBP trading within a bearish channel, although Friday’s upper low and a bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest that sellers might be losing momentum.

The RSI has been trending higher, although it is still below the 50 midline, highlighting a mild bearish pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is flat near the zero line, pointing to a lack of strong directional momentum, altogether showing an indecisive market.

Bulls would need to confirm above the area around 0.8685 (April 8, 14 lows, and April 24 high) to clear the path towards trendline resistance, now at 0.8705. Key support is at the confluence of Thursday and Friday’s lows, between 0.8655 and 0.8660, and the channel bottom, at 0.8650. Further down, the next target is the March 24 and 26 lows near 0.8635.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.21%-0.16%-0.16%-0.40%-0.49%-0.51%-0.11%
EUR0.21%0.08%0.07%-0.19%-0.26%-0.29%0.10%
GBP0.16%-0.08%0.00%-0.24%-0.34%-0.37%0.04%
JPY0.16%-0.07%0.00%-0.23%-0.34%-0.38%0.08%
CAD0.40%0.19%0.24%0.23%-0.10%-0.14%0.29%
AUD0.49%0.26%0.34%0.34%0.10%-0.01%0.39%
NZD0.51%0.29%0.37%0.38%0.14%0.01%0.41%
CHF0.11%-0.10%-0.04%-0.08%-0.29%-0.39%-0.41%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

GBP loses ground as US–Iran peace talks stall

  • GBP/USD remains in the negative territory due to stalled US–Iran peace talks.
  • US–Iran peace talks stalled after Trump canceled a Pakistan delegation for potential negotiations.
  • USD strengthens on safe-haven demand as Israel-Hezbollah clashes intensify despite a US-brokered ceasefire extension.

GBP/USD remains in the negative territory after trimming daily losses, trading around 1.3520 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair faced pressure as the risk-sensitive Pound Sterling (GBP) weakened amid stalled US–Iran peace talks.

US President Donald Trump called off that delegation to Pakistan to potentially discuss directly with Iran, Bloomberg reported on Sunday. “If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us. You know, there is a telephone. We have nice, secure lines,” said Trump.

Trump on Saturday told Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to skip the trip to Pakistan, which is mediating talks, saying that Iran “offered a lot, but not enough. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that his nation won’t enter “imposed negotiations under threats or blockade.”

CNN reported that President Trump was swiftly escorted off the stage by Secret Service after possible shots were fired at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in Washington, DC, on Saturday. Vice President JD Vance and several members of Trump’s Cabinet, who were also in attendance, were also rushed out.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthened against major peers on safe-haven demand as the ceasefire comes under strain, with Israel and Hezbollah escalating attacks despite a US-brokered extension meant to halt fighting for three weeks.