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GBP edges higher as traders price in two BoE rate hike odds

  • GBP/USD gains as markets price in the possibility of two BoE hikes in 2026 amid rising inflation fears.
  • The US Dollar may strengthen on safe-haven demand amid escalating Iran tensions following Trump’s recent threats.
  • Trump gave no clarity on reopening Hormuz, warning of intensified military action over the next two to three weeks.

GBP/USD inches higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 1.3230 during the Asian hours on Friday. Trading activity may remain subdued due to the Good Friday holiday.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) receives some support as markets are pricing in two Bank of England rate hikes in 2026 amid rising energy prices and inflation concerns. However, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey recently warned that expectations may be overstated.

However, the upside of the GBP/USD pair could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) could gain ground amid rising safe-haven demand following the recent Iran threats from US President Donald Trump.

US President Donald Trump offered no clarity on steps toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, warning of intensified military action over the next two to three weeks and issuing strong threats against Iran. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded that recent US strikes on civilian infrastructure would not force a retreat, describing them instead as evidence of an opponent in disarray and moral decline.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concern over rising oil prices, noting they could complicate efforts to curb inflation, particularly if gasoline costs surge and lift inflation expectations.

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EUR/GBP Analysis – Euro stands tall above 0.8700 in risk-off markets

  • EUR/GBP maintains its near-term bullish trend intact, with 0.8700 support capping bears.
  • Upbeat Eurozone manufacturing data provided some support to the Euro on Wednesday.
  • The pair is likely to meet significant resistance at the 0.8740-0.8750 area.

EUR/GBP’s reversal from one-month highs at 0.8740 found buyers right above 0.08700 on Wednesday, and the pair has trimmed losses on Thursday, returning to the 0.8720 area at the time of writing.

The Euro (EUR) seems to be faring better than the British Pound (GBP) amid the risk-averse market mood, and keeps the bullish bias from mid-March lows intact. The positive Eurozone manufacturing data provided some support for the common currency on Wednesday, while UK factory activity failed to convince investors.

Technical Analysis: Resistance at the 0.8740-08750 area

Chart Analysis EUR/GBP


The 4-hour chart shows EUR/GBP trading at 0.8724 amid a mildly bullish near-term bias. The Relative Strength Index stays above 60, indicating sustained upside momentum, although the bearish cross of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line suggests that upside pressure might be fading.

The pair is likely to require some extra impulse to extend its rally beyond the resistance area between 0.8740, where bulls were capped on March 3, 31, and April 1, and the 78.2% Fibonacci retracement of the early March reversal, at 0.8752. A confirmation above these levels would bring the year-to-date high, at the 0.8790 area, back to the focus.

To the downside, bears would need to breach Wednesday’s low, at 0.8704, and the March 31 low, at 0.8676, to negate the bullish view.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.51%0.71%0.49%0.25%0.64%0.63%0.63%
EUR-0.51%0.21%-0.04%-0.28%0.15%0.14%0.09%
GBP-0.71%-0.21%-0.23%-0.48%-0.05%-0.05%-0.12%
JPY-0.49%0.04%0.23%-0.24%0.15%0.14%0.10%
CAD-0.25%0.28%0.48%0.24%0.39%0.38%0.34%
AUD-0.64%-0.15%0.05%-0.15%-0.39%-0.01%-0.08%
NZD-0.63%-0.14%0.05%-0.14%-0.38%0.01%-0.05%
CHF-0.63%-0.09%0.12%-0.10%-0.34%0.08%0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

41, with a break higher exposing 0.8800 and then 0.8863. On the downside, initial support comes in at 0.8705, followed by the 61.8% retracement at 0.8721 turning into a pivot area if broken, while the 38.2% retracement at 0.8680 aligns with prior price congestion as the next key floor. A deeper pullback would bring 0.8677 into view, where a failure to hold would signal that the current bullish phase is losing traction.

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Sterling Slides as Trump’s Address Deepens Middle East Uncertainty

The British pound slipped toward $1.32, nearing its lowest point since late November, as investor caution resurfaced after President Donald Trump’s prime-time address provided no clear end in sight for the Middle East conflict. Trump affirmed that the US operation was nearly complete but vowed escalated actions, including possible strikes on electrical plants, over the next two to three weeks. The lack of new justifications for the war further weighed on market sentiment.

Ongoing uncertainty and inflationary pressures have prompted a reassessment of Bank of England policy expectations. Investors now anticipate two interest rate hikes in 2026, reversing four days of reduced bets that had left expectations below two hikes by yesterday’s close. Even so, this remains below last week’s peak, when markets briefly priced in as many as four increases. The shift comes despite Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s recent warning that markets were overestimating the likelihood of hikes.

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GBP weakens as USD rallies after Trump’s address to the nation

  • GBP/USD attracts heavy selling as Trump’s comments dampen de-escalation hopes and boost USD.
  • Rallying Crude Oil prices revive inflation fears and bolster Fed rate hike bets, further lifting the USD.
  • Economic concerns stemming from the Iran war undermine the GBP and also weigh on spot prices.

The GBP/USD pair meets fresh supply during the Asian session on Thursday. It retreats further from the weekly high, which was around the 1.3345 area touched the previous day. Spot prices decline to the mid-1.3200s after US President Donald Trump’s comments. These comments stall a two-day recovery move from a four-month low set on Tuesday.

Addressing the nation, Trump reiterated the 2-3 week deadline. He also threatened to hit Iran’s energy infrastructure if no deal is reached. Trump added that negotiations with Iran are going well. However, Tehran quickly rejected the claim. Additionally, reports say the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is pushing for military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This fuels worries about more tension in the Middle East.

The latest developments trigger a sharp rally in Crude Oil prices, reviving inflation fears and bolstering bets for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Adding to this, a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade assists the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) to regain positive traction following a two-day corrective slide from the year-to-date. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the UK economy is highly vulnerable to energy price shocks linked to the Iran war. Furthermore, the Bank of England’s (BoE) hawkish signal about a potential interest rate hike as early as April amid inflation fears raises downside risks to the economy. This further undermines the British Pound (GBP) and backs the case for the resumption of the GBP/USD pair’s recent decline witnessed over the past two months or so.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.29%0.37%0.30%0.13%0.59%0.52%0.28%
EUR-0.29%0.08%-0.02%-0.18%0.30%0.24%-0.02%
GBP-0.37%-0.08%-0.06%-0.24%0.22%0.16%-0.10%
JPY-0.30%0.02%0.06%-0.16%0.29%0.22%-0.02%
CAD-0.13%0.18%0.24%0.16%0.44%0.37%0.13%
AUD-0.59%-0.30%-0.22%-0.29%-0.44%-0.06%-0.34%
NZD-0.52%-0.24%-0.16%-0.22%-0.37%0.06%-0.26%
CHF-0.28%0.02%0.10%0.02%-0.13%0.34%0.26%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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GBP edges higher as Middle East war de-escalates

  • The Pound Sterling ticks up against its major peers amid significant de-escalation in the Middle East war.
  • Both the US and Iran have expressed willingness to end the month-long war.
  • Investors await the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for March.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades slightly higher against its major currency peers, rising 0.12% to near 1.3242, during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The British currency gains as demand for riskier assets has improved, following the announcement from Iran that is willing to end the war with the United States (US).

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.11%-0.06%-0.05%-0.08%-0.14%0.18%-0.22%
EUR0.11%0.05%0.07%0.03%-0.02%0.30%-0.11%
GBP0.06%-0.05%0.04%-0.01%-0.06%0.27%-0.13%
JPY0.05%-0.07%-0.04%-0.02%-0.05%0.23%-0.12%
CAD0.08%-0.03%0.01%0.02%-0.04%0.27%-0.12%
AUD0.14%0.02%0.06%0.05%0.04%0.33%-0.07%
NZD-0.18%-0.30%-0.27%-0.23%-0.27%-0.33%-0.40%
CHF0.22%0.11%0.13%0.12%0.12%0.07%0.40%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

According to the Iranian state news agency, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian told European Union (EU) Council President António Costa on Tuesday that his country is ready to end the war with the US, but it needs certain guarantees.

“We possess the necessary will to end this conflict, provided that essential conditions are met, especially the guarantees required to prevent repetition of the aggression,” Iranian President Pezeshkian said, according to Euronews.

Iran’s readiness for peace after United States (US) President Donald Trump’s truce call has diminished fears of further damage to energy infrastructure in the gulf region; however, there seems to be no significant decline in the oil price as energy supply constraints will sustain until the restoration of the infrastructure.

Meanwhile, fresh hopes of Middle East war de-escalation has diminished the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar, while its downside is expected to remain limited, as higher oil prices would keep discouraging Federal Reserve (Fed) officials from easing monetary conditions.

In Wednesday’s session, investors will focus on the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for March.

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EUR/GBP fluctuates as energy-led Eurozone inflation contrasts with fragile UK growth

  • EUR/GBP trades choppy as traders assess Eurozone inflation and UK growth data.
  • Rising energy costs push Eurozone inflation above target, adding pressure on the ECB.
  • UK growth stays weak, limiting the scope for aggressive BoE tightening.

EUR/GBP trades in a choppy range on Tuesday, as traders digest the latest economic data from both the United Kingdom and the Eurozone. At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 0.8691, rebounding after marking an intraday low of 0.8676.

The latest Eurozone preliminary inflation data, the first since the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, showed early signs of the impact from rising energy prices, pushing inflation above the ECB’s 2% target.

Headline inflation showed a notable pickup, with the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rising by 1.2% MoM in March, accelerating from 0.6% in February. On an annual basis, inflation rose to 2.5% from 1.9%, coming in below expectations of 2.7%.

Core inflation, however, remained more contained. The Core HICP rose 0.8% MoM, unchanged from the previous month, while the annual rate eased slightly to 2.3%, coming in below both the 2.4% forecast and the prior reading.

The data strengthen the case that the European Central Bank (ECB) could consider raising rates in the coming months if Oil prices remain elevated. However, markets are scaling back expectations of any immediate rate hike that had been priced in earlier, as rising energy costs are also fueling concerns about an economic slowdown, particularly in the Eurozone given its heavy reliance on imported energy.

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen warned that member states should prepare for a prolonged disruption to energy markets due to the Iran war, according to a letter sent to EU energy ministers.

ECB policymaker Madis Müller said on Tuesday that “the ECB must act if energy prices stay high for a long period,” adding that a rate hike in April “cannot be ruled out.”

In the United Kingdom, growth remained modest. GDP rose 0.1% QoQ in Q4, in line with expectations and unchanged from the preliminary estimate. On a yearly basis, the economy grew 1%, also matching forecasts.

Meanwhile, traders expect the Bank of England (BoE) to consider rate hikes to deal with oil-driven inflation. However, weak growth in the UK, reflected in the latest Q4 GDP data, points to a stagflationary environment, complicating the central bank’s policy outlook.

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GBP/USD Price – Holds gains near 1.3200 despite persistent bearish bias

  • GBP/USD may retest support near 1.3150 at the lower boundary of the descending channel.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 38 signals fading downside momentum, but insufficient buying pressure.
  • The pair may climb toward resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.3291.

GBP/USD halts its five-day losing streak, trading around 1.3200 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing bearish bias, as the pair moves downwards within the descending channel pattern.

The near-term bias stays mildly bearish as the GBP/USD pair holds below both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which cap price action and frame a descending short-term profile.

Additionally, the latest 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 38 after recovering from oversold territory, indicating fading downside momentum but not yet enough buying pressure to challenge the dominant corrective phase from recent highs.

The GBP/USD pair may retest the immediate support at the descending channel’s lower boundary around 1.3150. A break below the channel would expose the 1.3010, the lowest since April 2025, which was recorded in November 2025.

On the upside, the GBP/USD pair may rise toward the primary barrier at the nine-day EMA of 1.3291. Further advances would lead the GBP/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.3412, followed by the upper descending channel boundary around 1.3460. A break above this confluence resistance would trigger a bullish bias, paving the way for the pair to test 1.3869, its highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27.

GBP/USD: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.03%-0.08%-0.05%0.05%0.12%0.20%-0.10%
EUR0.03%-0.04%0.02%0.13%0.18%0.26%-0.03%
GBP0.08%0.04%0.06%0.18%0.23%0.30%0.01%
JPY0.05%-0.02%-0.06%0.11%0.16%0.24%-0.04%
CAD-0.05%-0.13%-0.18%-0.11%0.06%0.14%-0.15%
AUD-0.12%-0.18%-0.23%-0.16%-0.06%0.09%-0.21%
NZD-0.20%-0.26%-0.30%-0.24%-0.14%-0.09%-0.30%
CHF0.10%0.03%-0.01%0.04%0.15%0.21%0.30%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

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GBP/USD dives to four-month lows as Middle East tensions lift the US Dollar

  • GBP/USD is weighed by Middle East tensions, with higher oil prices boosting haven demand.
  • Powell acknowledges policy tension as traders trim aggressive Fed tightening bets.
  • Weak UK data and energy vulnerability keep pressure on Sterling.

The British Pound (GBP) collapses on Monday as Middle East escalations push the US Dollar (USD) higher, while Oil prices extend their gains for the fourth consecutive trading day. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3184, down by more than 0.50%, hitting a four-month low.

Sterling sinks as oil rises, Fed bets ease, UK outlook dims ahead

Market mood has improved slightly as US President Donald Trump said that the current Iranian regime seems “reasonable.” However, he added that if Iran’s new regime doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict could escalate after the arrival of 3,500 troops to the Middle East.

In the meantime, fears that the Iran war could weigh on the economy pushed traders to trim hawkish bets and increase the chances for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) by the end of 2026.

Recently, Fed Chair Jerome Powell crossed the wires, acknowledging that there’s tension between the dual mandate’s goals. He said that the central bank is committed to getting inflation back to 2% on a “sustained basis,” adding that tariff-related inflation likely added 0.5% to 1% to inflation, but it’s likely a one-time effect.

Powell said that monetary policy is in a good place, that events in the Middle East affect gas prices, and added that long-term inflation expectations remain in check. Furthermore, commented that officials may need to respond to the impact of the conflict and that, if prices begin to shift inflation expectations, they would be ready to act.

In the UK, some economists see vulnerabilities due to Britain’s dependence on imported natural gas. Along with stubbornly high inflation above the Bank of England’s target, it paints a gloomy economic outlook, as downside risks for the economy rise.

Last week’s economic data revealed that British business activity hit a six-month low, manufacturers’ input costs rose at their fastest rate since 1992, and retail sales declined. Meanwhile, traders’ eyes are on the release of economic growth data, as they expect the UK’s Q4 2025 GDP to remain steady at 1%.

In the US, investors’ focus will be on the Consumer Confidence index and the Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February, as well as speeches by Fed officials.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook 

Chart Analysis GBP/USD

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3188. The near-term bias is bearish as spot holds well below the clustered simple moving averages around 1.3500, confirming a downside break from the prior range. Price has slipped through the rising support trend line drawn from 1.3035, turning the broader structure from supported to pressured. The downward-sloping resistance trend line from 1.3869 continues to cap bounces, while the rising Fed Sentiment Index highlights a supportive backdrop for the dollar that aligns with the current selling pressure in cable.

Immediate resistance appears near 1.3330, where recent swing highs converge with the descending trend line, followed by 1.3410 and 1.3435 as the next upside hurdles if a corrective rebound develops. On the downside, the latest low at 1.3188 is the first level to watch, with further weakness opening the way toward the psychological 1.3100 area and then 1.3035, where the prior trend-line origin sits as deeper support. As long as price remains beneath 1.3330 and the moving average cluster around 1.3500, rallies are likely to be sold rather than sustained.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.49%0.55%-0.53%0.21%0.29%0.62%0.13%
EUR-0.49%0.04%-1.00%-0.28%-0.12%0.13%-0.36%
GBP-0.55%-0.04%-1.07%-0.33%-0.21%0.09%-0.41%
JPY0.53%1.00%1.07%0.75%0.85%1.15%0.66%
CAD-0.21%0.28%0.33%-0.75%0.09%0.35%-0.09%
AUD-0.29%0.12%0.21%-0.85%-0.09%0.30%-0.18%
NZD-0.62%-0.13%-0.09%-1.15%-0.35%-0.30%-0.50%
CHF-0.13%0.36%0.41%-0.66%0.09%0.18%0.50%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).