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Euro hesitates above 0.8650 against the British Pound as Middle East tensions rise

  • EUR/GBP struggles to extend gains beyond 0.8660 but remains steady above 0.8650.
  • Risk appetite has faltered on Thursday as the US and Iran exchange attacks.
  • ECB-BoE monetry policy divergence keeps the pair buoyed.

The Euro (EUR) is trading flat against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday. EUR/GBP bulls are struggling to find acceptance above 0.8660 following a 0.4% rally over the previous two days, although downside attempts remain contained above 0.8655 so far.

Speculative demand for the common currency is faltering on Thursday as market sentiment sours and Oil prices jump with tensions between the US and Iran escalating again.

The US military launched fresh strikes on Iranian military sites in the province of Bandar Abbas that, according to the US Central Command (Centcom), “posed a threat around the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) affirmed that they targeted US bases in the Gulf region, and Kuwait authorities reported interceptions of hostile drone and missile attacks.

ECB-BoE monetary policy divergence

The Euro, however, remains fairly steady, favoured by monetary policy divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE). Futures markets are pricing a 91% chance that the ECB will hike interest rates at its June 11 meeting, according to data by the ECB Watch Tool. The BoE, on the contrary, is not expected to tighten its monetary policy anytime soon.

The ECB Chief Economist, Philip Lane, warned on Thursday that inflationary consequences from the US-Iran war will outlast the conflict and that the bank must prevent the general belief that inflation will remain high for a long time to take hold.

Later on Thursday, ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to take part in a central bankers’ meeting, and her comments on monetary policy will be listened to with particular interest.

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GBP softens to near 1.3400 as US-Iran tensions boost safe-haven US Dollar

  • GBP/USD loses momentum to around 1.3400 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 
  • US military carried out new strikes in Iran; Trump said he won’t rush into a deal with Tehran. 
  • Traders reduce their bets on BoE rate hikes due to easing concerns about political developments and softer UK data. 

The GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers near 1.3400 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The British Pound (GBP) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on fresh geopolitical developments. Markets remain cautious ahead of the release of the US April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation report, which is due later in the day. 

The US military carried out new strikes in Iran, targeting a site that posed a threat to US forces and commercial traffic, according to Reuters. The US described the actions as measured, purely defensive, and intended to maintain the ceasefire. 

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump vowed to reach a favorable deal to end the war with Iran, warning that the regime’s efforts to bore him with waiting will not work because “I don’t care about the midterm elections.” Rising tensions and signs of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and create a headwind for the major pair in the near term. 

Markets have scaled back expectations for a rate hike from the Bank of England (BoE) following softer inflation data, an unexpected rise in the Unemployment Rate to 5.0% for April, and easing political concerns.  

“Traders now price one rate hike fewer in 2026 than at the end of the previous week, and gilt yields saw the biggest weekly drop since late-2023,” Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note on Tuesday. “We estimate that lower yields were driven by lower oil prices, a fall in betting-market odds on Sir Keir Starmer being replaced, and Andy Burnham committing to maintain current fiscal rules,” they added. 

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Pound Little-Changed Amid Middle East Optimism

The pound held steady at $1.344 as investors awaited Middle East developments amid optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal and diminishing expectations for Bank of England rate hikes. Investors remain focused on the region, heartened by the recent lack of negative signals from both sides and lingering hopes that an agreement to ease tensions and reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains possible despite recent strikes. Traders have trimmed their bets on BoE rate hikes, now expecting about 40 basis points of tightening by year-end, with a roughly 50% chance of a hike next month. Attention now turns to upcoming BoE policymaker speeches for monetary policy signals and political developments around Prime Minister Keir Starmer following Labour’s regional election setbacks.

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British Pound remains close to monthly peak vs Japanese Yen amid Mideast tensions

  • GBP/JPY regains positive traction on Wednesday and draws support from a combination of factors.
  • A modest USD downtick benefits the GBP, while economic concerns due to Iran risks weigh on the JPY.
  • Bulls seem rather unaffected by divergent BoJ-BoE expectations and JPY intervention speculations.

The GBP/JPY cross attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day’s modest pullback from the 214.65-214.70 region, or a fresh monthly peak, and sticks to its modest intraday gains through the early European session on Wednesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 214.35-214.40 area, up 0.10% for the day, and seem poised to appreciate further amid a supportive fundamental backdrop.

The British Pound (GBP) benefits from a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick, which, along with the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the Japanese Yen (JPY), validates the near-term positive outlook for the GBP/JPY cross. In fact, the JPY has been underperforming against major global currencies amid economic concerns stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict and the continued disruptions to energy supplies.

In fact, shipping traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz remains drastically reduced due to Iran’s restrictions and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Furthermore, the US and Iran remain at odds over key issues, including Tehran’s nuclear program and the strategic waterway. This keeps geopolitical risk premium in play and continues to undermine the JPY, despite hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations.

BoJ Deputy Governor Himino Ryozo said on Tuesday that the central bank will continue to raise the policy rate based on economic activity, prices, and financial conditions. Even speculations that Japanese authorities will step in again to prop up the domestic currency do little to impress the JPY bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the GBP/JPY cross is to the upside and backing the case for further gains.

Meanwhile, traders pushed back expectations for the likely timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) to December after the UK Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) unexpectedly slowed to the 2.8% YoY rate in April. Adding to this, the UK political chaos and growing calls for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step down might hold back the GBP bulls from placing aggressive bets and cap the GBP/JPY cross.

Japanese Yen Price This Month

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this month. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.75%1.15%1.77%1.78%0.73%0.60%0.48%
EUR-0.75%0.38%0.96%0.98%0.00%-0.12%-0.30%
GBP-1.15%-0.38%0.58%0.64%-0.40%-0.52%-0.69%
JPY-1.77%-0.96%-0.58%0.00%-1.03%-1.26%-1.33%
CAD-1.78%-0.98%-0.64%-0.00%-1.04%-1.27%-1.30%
AUD-0.73%0.00%0.40%1.03%1.04%-0.13%-0.30%
NZD-0.60%0.12%0.52%1.26%1.27%0.13%-0.17%
CHF-0.48%0.30%0.69%1.33%1.30%0.30%0.17%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/GBP Price Forecasts: Euro remains on the defensive with 0.8640 capping gains

  • EUR/GBP bounces up from lows sub 0.8620, but remains capped below 0.8640.
  • Hawkish comments by ECB’s Lane have failed to support the Euro.
  • In the UK, fading expectations of BoE hikes are weighing on GBP rallies.

The Euro (EUR) is trading higher against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday, trimming losses after depreciating more than 1% in a bit more than a week. Euro bulls, however, remain capped below the 0.8640 area so far, which leaves the pair trading within Monday’s range, and keeps its broader bearish trend intact.

Hawkish comments by European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philippe Lane, who endorsed market expectations of upcoming rate hikes earlier on Tuesday, have failed to provide any significant support to the Euro. 

The Pound, on the other hand, remains fairly resilient to the UK’s uncertain political scenario, although the low yield on UK Gilts amid fading hopes of Bank of England (BoE) monetary tightening, as well as a somewhat more cautious market, are keeping Cable’s upside attempts limited.

Technical Analysis: Euro bears remain in control

EUR/GBP Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP trades at 0.8634, with the near-term bearish structure still in place and momentum indicators pointing to moderate bearish pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced up from oversold levels, but remains within negative territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has inched back into positive territory, yet hints at a consolidative, neutral bias, rather than at a trend shift.

Initial resistance lies at a previous support in the 0.8640 area (May 21 low). Further up, the May 20 and May 19 highs, near 0.8665, and the 0.8685 area, respectively, emerge as the next bullish targets.

On the downside, a break below 2026 lows between 0.8605 and 0.8615 would bring the August 2025 low, at the 0.8600 area, and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the May selloff, at 0.8587, into focus.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.05%0.19%0.18%0.03%0.12%0.47%0.28%
EUR-0.05%0.16%0.13%-0.00%0.10%0.44%0.22%
GBP-0.19%-0.16%-0.02%-0.16%-0.06%0.28%0.08%
JPY-0.18%-0.13%0.02%-0.14%-0.03%0.29%0.12%
CAD-0.03%0.00%0.16%0.14%0.12%0.46%0.25%
AUD-0.12%-0.10%0.06%0.03%-0.12%0.35%0.14%
NZD-0.47%-0.44%-0.28%-0.29%-0.46%-0.35%-0.21%
CHF-0.28%-0.22%-0.08%-0.12%-0.25%-0.14%0.21%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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GBP retreats from monthly high vs JPY; downside seems limited

  • GBP/JPY attracts some sellers on Tuesday and is pressured by a combination of factors.
  • Rebounding USD, delayed BoE rate hike bets, and UK political chaos undermine the GBP.
  • Hawkish comments from BoJ’s Himino support the JPY and contribute to the modest fall.

The GBP/JPY cross edges lower during the Asian session on Tuesday and erodes a part of the previous day’s strong gains to the 214.70 region, or a fresh monthly peak. Spot prices, however, lack follow-through selling and currently trade around the 214.35 area, down just over 0.10% for the day.

A combination of factors exert some downward pressure on the British Pound (GBP), which, in turn, fails to assists the GBP/JPY cross to build on the recent move up witnessed over the past week or so. Investors pushed back their expectation for the likely timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) after the UK Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) unexpectedly slowed to the 2.8% YoY rate in April, from 3.3% in the previous month. Apart from this, the UK political chaos, amid growing calls for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step down, and the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) buying further undermine the GBP.

The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, draws some support from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Himino Ryozo, saying that the central bank will continue to raise the policy rate based on economic activity, prices, and financial conditions. This further contributes to the mildly offered tone surrounding the GBP/JPY cross. The JPY bulls, however, seem hesitant on the back of concerns that Japan’s economy will come under substantial strains due to continued disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East. This, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the currency pair and warrants some caution before positioning for any further intraday fall.

There isn’t any relevant market-moving economic data due for release on Tuesday. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the GBP/JPY pair’s one-week-old move up has run out of steam and positioning for any meaningful decline. Even from a technical perspective, the recent goodish rebound from the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) pivotal support near the 211.00 mark favors bullish traders and backs the case for the emergence of dip-buying at lower levels.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.08%0.11%0.02%0.04%0.03%0.26%0.05%
EUR-0.08%0.07%-0.06%-0.02%-0.02%0.21%-0.03%
GBP-0.11%-0.07%-0.11%-0.09%-0.07%0.13%-0.07%
JPY-0.02%0.06%0.11%0.03%0.04%0.24%0.05%
CAD-0.04%0.02%0.09%-0.03%0.02%0.24%0.02%
AUD-0.03%0.02%0.07%-0.04%-0.02%0.22%-0.00%
NZD-0.26%-0.21%-0.13%-0.24%-0.24%-0.22%-0.22%
CHF-0.05%0.03%0.07%-0.05%-0.02%0.00%0.22%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

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Euro softens against British Pound despite ECB hike prospects

  • EUR/GBP declines to near 0.8635 in Monday’s early European session. 
  • ECB rate hike chance rises as Iran conflict fuels inflation. 
  • BoE’s Taylor sees less risk of inflation persistence than in 2022. 

The EUR/GBP cross trades in negative territory around 0.8635 during the early European trading hours on Monday. Traders await the speeches from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers later this week, including President Christine Lagarde, for fresh impetus. 

The ECB hinted that rising energy prices might push this year’s inflation forecasts upward, supporting the case for a potential interest rate hike this year. According to Reuters, the case for the ECB to raise the interest rates in June is nearly sealed, but the central bank is likely to be noncommittal about any further move, looking to temper bets for a quick follow-up step in July.

On the UK’s front, softer UK Retail Sales data and an unexpected rise in the Unemployment Rate to 5.0% have prompted traders to scale back expectations for future Bank of England (BoE) rate hikes by December. This, in turn, might weigh on the GBP and acts as a tailwind for the cross. 

BoE Policymaker Alan Taylor said that an “extended hold” is likely sufficient, adding that second-round inflationary impacts are less severe than those seen during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion due to a cooling domestic jobs market. Financial markets are pricing in two quarter-point increases in interest rates by the UK central bank by the end of the year.

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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Extends recovery to near 20-EMA amid risk-on mood

  • GBP/USD jumps to near 1.3480 as hopes of the US-Iran deal have improved market sentiment.
  • US President Trump said the final agreement with Iran is largely negotiated.
  • Oil prices have declined sharply on US-Iran deal hopes.

The GBP/USD pair is up 0.35% to near 1.3480 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The Cable trades firmly as market sentiment for riskier assets has improved significantly due to increased hopes of a deal between the United States (US) and Iran.

In the Asian trade, S&P 500 futures jump 0.85% to near 7,540, reflecting strong investors’ appetite for risk-sensitive assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.3% lower to near 99.00.

Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that an agreement with Iran has been “largely negotiated”, which will direct Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with other key elements, and final details of the deal are currently being discussed. Later, Trump also said in another post on the same platform that negotiations from Washington need not rush for any deal.

Improving hopes of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have resulted in a sharp decline in oil prices, which has also forced traders to pare some hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets for the year.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades higher at around 1.3480 as of writing. The pair extends recovery to near the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3472, which indicates that the near-term tone has slightly become constructive.

The broader downward resistance trend line, with a break point near 1.3612, still caps the medium-term structure overhead, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 50 hints at neutral momentum after the recent recovery from lower levels.

On the downside, the May 22 low at 1.3413 is the major support zone; a daily close below this level would expose a deeper pullback toward the May 20 low at 1.3375. On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the downward resistance trend line break area around 1.3612, and only a clear move above this barrier would suggest that bulls are gaining enough traction to extend the advance toward 1.3700.