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GBP seems vulnerable near 1.3300 vs USD on Iran tensions, UK political turmoil

  • GBP/USD attracts sellers for the fifth consecutive day amid a combination of negative factors.
  • Rising Fed rate hike bets and renewed US-Iran tensions benefit the USD’s safe-haven status.
  • The UK political turmoil undermines the GBP and exerts additional pressure on spot prices.

The GBP/USD pair adds to last week’s heavy losses and remains under some selling pressure for the fifth consecutive day on Monday. Spot prices drop to the 1.3300 mark, or the lowest level since April 8, during the Asian session and seem vulnerable amid a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD).

Against the backdrop of rising bets for an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026, the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continues to underpin the safe-haven Greenback. In fact, US President Donald Trump warned Iran that the “clock is ticking” and that there “won’t be anything left” if action is not taken soon, adding that “time is of the essence.” Adding to this, the Times of Israel reported on Saturday that Israel and the US are actively advancing military preparations to potentially resume coordinated attacks against Iran.

Furthermore, major disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz dampen hopes for a peace deal, lifting Crude Oil prices to a two-week top. This revives inflationary concerns and bolsters market expectations for a more hawkish Fed. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing over a 50% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. The outlook, in turn, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and further benefits the USD, which is seen weighing on the GBP/USD pair.

The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, is pressured by domestic political uncertainty amid calls for UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to step down, following the ruling Labour Party’s hefty losses in the recent local elections. Moreover, UK Health Minister Wes Streeting’s resignation last Thursday points to a deepening crisis within the party, which, in turn, backs the case for a further near-term depreciating move for the Sterling and the GBP/USD pair.

Moving ahead, traders this week will confront the release of important UK macro releases, starting with monthly employment details on Tuesday. This will be followed by the latest consumer inflation figures on Wednesday, which will play a key role in influencing expectations about the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate path and provide some meaningful impetus to the GBP. The fundamental backdrop, however, seems tilted in favor of the GBP/USD bears.

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British Pound hovers ahead of UK GDP data, awaits Trump-Xi meeting updates

  • GBP/USD steadies as traders await preliminary Q1 UK Gross Domestic Product data due on Thursday.
  • Traders also await further news on the ongoing Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing.
  • US wholesale inflation reached a post-2022 peak in April, as the Producer Price Index surged to a 6.0% annual rate.

GBP/USD holds ground following three days of losses, trading around 1.3520 during the Asian hours on Thursday. Traders await the preliminary UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2026, along with Industrial and Manufacturing Production data due later in the day.

The GBP/USD pair holds ground as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm on market caution as traders await further updates amid the ongoing meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Traders will also shift their focus to the US Retail Sales report for April due later in the day.

As the world’s two largest economies attempt to stabilize their relationship, they are reportedly considering a framework to reduce tariffs on roughly $30 billion worth of goods, excluding those tied to national security.

However, geopolitical tensions remain a major factor. The US-China summit has taken place against the backdrop of the war in Iran. Washington has recently increased pressure on Tehran by imposing new sanctions on entities involved in selling Iranian oil to China and threatening banks that facilitate those transactions.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that wholesale inflation hit its highest level since late 2022. The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged to 6.0% year-over-year in April, up from 4.3% in March and well above the 4.9% expected by the market. On a monthly basis, PPI rose 1.4%, doubling the previous month’s 0.7% and far exceeding the anticipated 0.5% increase.

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GBP/USD Forecast – Holds modest upside while staying anchored above 100-day EMA support

  • GBP/USD trades with mild gains near 1.3550 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
  • The positive outlook of the pair remains intact above the key 100-day EMA. 
  • The immediate resistance level is seen at 1.3630; the initial support level is located at 1.3540. 

The GBP/USD pair trades on a positive note around 1.3550 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Nonetheless, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited, as UK political turmoil and ongoing tensions in the Middle East could weigh on the British Pound (GBP) against the Greenback. 

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing rising pressure to set a date for his departure after elections across much of the country resulted in massive losses for his ruling Labour Party. While Starmer stated he will not resign, the resulting political “noise” and rising UK gilt yields have created localized pressure on the GBP. 

Traders will closely watch the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which is due later on Wednesday. Markets expect the US PPI inflation to rise to 4.9% YoY in April from 4.0% in March. The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to show a rise of 4.3% YoY in April versus 3.8% prior. If the report shows a hotter-than-expected outcome, this could boost the US Dollar (USD) and create a headwind for the major pair. 

Chart Analysis GBP/USD

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, GBP/USD holds a mild bullish bias as spot remains above the 20-day Bollinger simple moving average (SMA) and comfortably over the 100-day SMA, suggesting underlying dip-buying interest. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers close to the mid-50s, hinting at steady rather than overstretched upside momentum while price grinds higher within the Bollinger envelope.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the upper Bollinger band near 1.3630, where recent rallies could stall if buyers fail to extend the breakout. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day Bollinger SMA around 1.3540, followed by the 100-day SMA at roughly 1.3483; a deeper pullback would then look to the lower Bollinger band near 1.3458 as a stronger floor.

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Sterling slips from peak as US CPI and UK GDP loom

  • US April CPI on Tuesday is forecast at 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY, with a hotter print likely to weigh on Sterling.
  • Thursday’s UK Q1 GDP, consensus 0.6% QoQ, is the only domestic release with real potential to drive Sterling this week.
  • Iran-US clashes flared again over the weekend, with the Strait of Hormuz shut and global energy supply risk elevated.

Sterling pulled back from a fresh peak near 1.3650 on Monday, easing close to 1.3610 through European trade after the Asian session squeezed the Pound to a new local high. The rejection from the 1.3650 area produced a sharp intraday reversal, with a string of red candles unwinding most of the overnight push and pointing to fading upside momentum ahead of a heavy data week.

The week ahead is a US-heavy affair: Tuesday’s April Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the centerpiece, with consensus penciling in 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY headline alongside a 0.4% MoM, 2.7% YoY core read, in part reflecting the first full month of Iran-conflict energy pass-through. Wednesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) print is forecast hotter again at 0.5% MoM and 4.9% YoY, with Thursday’s Retail Sales penciled at 0.5% MoM. A heavier Federal Reserve speaking calendar bookends each release, with Williams, Goolsbee, Kashkari, Schmid, Hammack, and Barr all scheduled, leaving the US Dollar exposed to two-way risk on every print and every headline. A hotter-than-expected CPI in particular would underline how Strait of Hormuz disruption is feeding through to US prices and tend to weigh on Sterling.

On the UK side, the calendar is thin. Thursday’s release block, headlined by the Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) preliminary print at 0.6% QoQ and 0.8% YoY consensus alongside the March monthly read forecast at minus 0.2% MoM, is the only domestic catalyst with real potential to move Sterling. An upside surprise would help the Pound break free of its consolidation, while a softer set would deepen the stagflation narrative that has built since UK March CPI ran at 3.3% YoY. Bank of England (BoE) commentary from Greene on Monday and Mann on Wednesday will fill the gaps but is unlikely to drive direction. Fresh Iran-US clashes over the weekend, with the Strait of Hormuz still shut and Washington’s reopening proposal awaiting an Iranian response, continue to set the macro tone, while reported internal Labour pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer adds a modest political risk premium on the Pound that a soft GDP print would only widen.

GBP/USD 15-minute chart

Chart Analysis GBP/USD

Technical Analysis

In the fifteen-minute chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3609. The pair holds a mild intraday bullish bias as it sits above the daily open at 1.3584, keeping the latest rebound intact despite the lack of nearby moving average references. However, the Stochastic RSI has recently shifted from overbought extremes toward the lower end of its range, hinting that upside momentum is cooling after the earlier advance.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the daily open level around 1.3584, where buyers may look to defend the broader intraday up-move. A sustained break below this floor would weaken the constructive tone and expose deeper pullbacks, while holding above it would keep the short-term bias tilted to the upside even as momentum indicators stay in a corrective phase.

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3611 with a bullish near-term bias, as spot holds above both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). The pair has extended its advance away from these reclaimed trend filters, suggesting underlying demand remains in control, while the Stochastic RSI around 61 indicates positive but not overstretched momentum, leaving room for further gains if buyers stay in charge.

On the topside, immediate support-turned-reference now comes from the 50-day EMA at 1.3480, followed by the 200-day EMA near 1.3399, which together mark a broader demand band on any corrective pullback. As long as daily closes remain above these EMAs, the technical backdrop would continue to favor dip-buying strategies over a deeper reversal.

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British Pound – Political risks drags against Euro – ING

ING’s Chris Turner notes Sterling is softening after UK local elections, as Labour’s losses fuel talk of a leadership contest and a leftward policy shift. He highlights the risk of developments around Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham re-entering parliament. Turner says markets will focus on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s policy speech and expects EUR/GBP to revisit the overnight high at 0.8675.

Sterling pressured by Labour uncertainty

“Sterling is softening a little as markets digest the fall-out from local UK elections held late last week. While Labour losses were not quite as bad as feared, they have failed to quell speculation over a Labour leadership contest and a clear leftward drift in government policy.”

“Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham remains waiting in the wings and the markets will react to any news such as Burnham resigning as mayor or a sitting Labour MP resigning to make way for Burnham’s return to parliament.”

“The key focus this morning will be a policy speech from PM Keir Starmer on how he plans to address Labour’s falling popularity and take the party into the next election. The wild card here is how far he intends to embrace a return to Europe, whether that be rejoining the customs union or more controversially, the single market. “

“It will be tough for Starmer to win over his critics, and we suspect EUR/GBP finds its way back to the overnight high at 0.8675.”

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Chart of The Day – GBP/USD

The political crisis surrounding Keir Starmer has become one of the key market drivers for the pound today. The situation is evolving rapidly and is having a direct impact on government bond yields and the value of the pound, with the markets closely monitoring the Prime Minister’s every word. Internal party pressure The scale of Starmer’s problem is best illustrated by a single figure: 42 Labour MPs had already officially called on him to resign by Sunday evening, whilst former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner described the current situation as “Labour’s last chance” to change course.

The emergence of potential challengers, such as Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham, means that the market now views the internal dispute within the Labour Party as a real risk, rather than mere political noise. In his speech on Monday, Starmer focused on several key themes. Firstly, a firm defence of his own position: “I will fight in every internal vote.” Secondly, a political agenda aimed at closer ties with the EU, the nationalisation of British Steel and a new mobility agreement for young people with Europe. The market viewed this speech primarily through the prism of one question: will the Prime Minister stabilise his position sufficiently to halt the sell-off of gilts?

You can watch the UK Prime Minister’s live address here. Source: Sky News, YouTube

Starmer, gilts in pounds

The yield on 10-year gilts rose on Monday morning to 4.954%, an increase of 3 basis points from the previous close, when it stood at 4.904% immediately after Starmer refused to resign on Friday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg say that were it not for the political component, yields would be 10–15 basis points lower. This shows just how much the market has already begun to price in the risk of political instability, rather than solely macroeconomic fundamentals. The UK currently has the highest debt servicing costs of all G7 countries, a consequence of inflation remaining above target and weak economic growth. The situation is further complicated by the economic fallout from the armed conflict in Iran, which has led to higher energy prices and a further weakening of business activity. In such an environment, any political uncertainty acts as a risk multiplier for funds holding gilts.

Implications for the GBP

The pound finds itself in a difficult position, both technically and fundamentally. On the one hand, structural factors such as the Bank of England’s relatively high interest rates compared to the ECB and the marked inflationary divergence from the rest of Europe may continue to support it in the medium term. On the other hand, the political risk premium, which has just begun to be priced into gilt yields, is a factor that directly affects the currency’s valuation: higher bond yields against a backdrop of a weakening government is a scenario that has historically been negative for the pound, as it suggests a lack of a fiscal anchor. If Starmer survives the coming weeks politically and manages to quell the internal rebellion, the risk premium should gradually decline, and the GBP/USD pair could test higher resistance levels once again. An alternative scenario, namely a genuine battle for party leadership, would, however, mean further rises in gilt yields and pressure on the pound, particularly as global markets are now highly sensitive to any signs of political fiscal instability following the experiences of the Truss era. For sterling traders, therefore, today is a test not so much of Starmer himself as of the resilience of the political risk premium that the market has already priced in.

GBP/USD is trading at 1.3608 on the daily chart, within an uptrend that has been in place since the low around 1.22 at the turn of 2024/2025, and the price remains above the anchored VWAP from early 2025, which runs in the 1.31–1.32 region. The volume profile indicates a Point of Control in the 1.3450–1.3480 zone, where a black horizontal line marks a key support level that has been tested repeatedly on both sides. The RSI(14) at 57.17 suggests neutral-bullish momentum with no signs of overbought conditions, which technically leaves room for further gains towards the 1.3800–1.3850 resistance zone, where the price reversed at the 2025 peak.

Today’s speech by Starmer and his political survival are factors that will directly determine the short-term direction: government stability paves the way upwards, whilst an escalation of the crisis and a rise in gilt yields would push the pair back towards the POC zone at 1.3450, and, in the event of a deeper sell-off, even towards the VWAP. Technically, the bulls have the upper hand as long as the price remains above 1.34, and the bears will only regain the initiative after a break below this zone with volume. Source: xStation

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British Pound recovers further vs USD; GBP/USD holds near daily peak, above 1.3600

  • GBP/USD attracts fresh buyers following a modest bearish gap down opening to mid-1.3500s.
  • Easing UK political risks and the BoE’s hawkish signal underpin the GBP, supporting spot prices.
  • Iran tensions and reviving Fed rate hike bets benefit the safe-haven USD and might cap the pair.

The GBP/USD pair fills a major part of its weekly bearish gap opening on Monday and is now looking to extend the momentum further beyond the 1.3600 mark. Spot prices, however, remain below the 1.3635 horizontal resistance and the highest level since February 16, touched earlier this month, warranting caution for bullish traders amid a modest US Dollar (USD) strength.

Against the backdrop of renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, disagreements over Tehran’s nuclear program dampen bets for a US-Iran peace deal. US President Donald Trump and Iran both rejected each other’s peace proposals for ending the war and the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This keeps geopolitical risks in play, which, along with hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, turn out to be key factors underpinning the safe-haven USD.

The US-Iran standoff triggers a fresh leg up in Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and keeping hopes alive for at least one 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike by the US central bank in 2026. In fact, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a nearly 20% chance that the Fed will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. That said, easing UK political uncertainty underpins the British Pound (GBP) and might continue to act as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair.

In fact, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he ​would not resign after ‌local election results in Britain confirmed expectations of ‌significant losses for the ruling Labour Party. Furthermore, the Bank of England’s (BoE) signal last week that rate hikes could be appropriate if inflation remains persistent turns out to be another factor lending some support to the GBP and contributes to the GBP/USD pair’s goodish intraday move up from the 1.3550 horizontal support zone.

The BoE’s MPC member Megan Greene said earlier today that the central bank needs to wait to see how Middle East conflicts will flare before making any monetary policy adjustments, and that Inflation risks are skewed entirely to the upside. This, in turn, backs the case for a further appreciating move for the GBP/USD pair, though traders might opt to wait for the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures on Tuesday and the Trump-Xi summit later this week.

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EUR/GBP holds losses near 0.8650 after weaker German Industrial Production data

  • EUR/GBP loses ground to near 0.8650 in Friday’s early European session. 
  • German Industrial Production falls 0.7% MoM in March, weaker than expected. 
  • BoE’s Bailey warned of “forceful tightening” if energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict continue to drive inflation. 

The EUR/GBP cross holds losses around 0.8650 during the early European session on Friday. The Euro (EUR) softens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) on the downbeat German economic data. Traders brace for the speeches from the European Central Bank policymakers later on Friday, including Christine Lagarde,  Luis de Guindos, Piero Cipollone, Isabel Schnabel , and Joachim Nagel. 

Data released by Destatis on Friday revealed that Germany’s industrial sector activity fell sharply in March, with Industrial Production falling by 0.7% MoM, versus a decline of 0.5% prior (revised from -0.3%). This figure came in weaker than the expectation of a 0.5% rise. 

Annually, German Industrial Production arrived at -2.8% in March, following February’s revised 0.2% decrease. The Euro edges slightly lower against the GBP in an immediate reaction to the worse-than-expected German report.

Hawkish remarks from the ECB officials might help limit the EUR’s losses. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel bolstered expectations that the bank could raise interest rates as soon as next month, saying companies and households were now reacting in a concerning way to surging global energy prices.

Meanwhile, ECB board member Piero Cipollone noted on Wednesday that the chance of a central bank rate hike has risen as ‌inflation pressures are high, even as negotiated wage data showed pay demands had yet to increase.

On the UK’s front, the Bank of England (BoE) decided to hold the bank rate steady at 3.75% as widely expected at the last meeting, presenting a scenario framework that suggests rate hikes could be appropriate but avoiding any pre-commitment. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned of “forceful tightening” if energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict continue to drive inflation.