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EUR/GBP: Loses momentum as BoE turns hawkish – MUFG

MUFG analysts note that EUR/GBP has drifted lower within a 0.8600–0.8800 range as the Pound (GBP) outperforms the Euro (EUR). The euro-zone faces weaker PMIs and rising stagflation risks, while stronger United Kingdom (UK) data and sticky inflation have markets pricing more BoE tightening. They see scope for several Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members to vote for a hike, keeping EUR/GBP under pressure.

Pound supported by stronger UK data

“The initial negative impact of the energy price shock on the euro‑zone economy was evident in the latest PMI surveys for April. The surveys showed that business confidence fell sharply in the services sector, while holding up better among manufacturers. The euro‑zone services PMI declined by 2.8 points to 47.4 in April, whereas the manufacturing PMI rose by 0.6 points to 52.2.”

“For the euro‑zone economy as a whole, the composite PMI dropped by 2.1 points to 48.6, marking its weakest level since November 2024. The index has now fallen by 3.3 points since February, prior to the Middle East conflict. Business confidence has deteriorated more quickly than during the previous energy price shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and is already at much weaker levels.”

“The GBP has held up better than the EUR over the past week, placing modest downward pressure on EUR/GBP, although the pair has remained within a relatively tight 0.8600–0.8800 range since the conflict began. The GBP has been supported by further evidence that the UK economy started the year with more underlying momentum than previously expected, while the initial negative impact of the energy price shock has so far appeared limited.”

“Stronger growth momentum has increased the risk of a hawkish policy update from the BoE this week. The UK rate market has moved to price back in more tightening from the BoE, and the uplift for UK yields has provided more support for the GBP. The 2-year government bond yield in the UK has increased by around 30bps from the recent low compared to around 20bps in the euro-zone and just over 10bps in the US.”

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EUR/GBP – Hesitation above 0.8655 with bears still in control

  • EUR/GBP bounced up from lows near 0.8650 but remains capped below 0.8670 so far.
  • Weak German consumer confidence data has weighed on the Euro across the board.
  • Technical indicators show a waning bearish pressure.

The Euro (EUR) is trimming some losses against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday after finding support at the 0.8655 area late last week. Upside attempts, however, remain capped below a previous support area at 0.8670 so far, which leaves the broader bearish trend in play for now.

Data from Germany released earlier on Monday revealed that consumer confidence for May, as measured by the GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, deteriorated to its weakest level since February 2023, amid the consequences of the war in Iran. The impact of these figures on the Euro, however, has been cushioned by a mild risk appetite, fuelled by news of ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran to end the Middle East conflict. This is keeping the Euro and the Pound moderately positive against the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).

Technical Analysis: Bears are losing momentum

EUR/GBP Chart Analysis

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart shows the EUR/GBP trading within a bearish channel, although Friday’s upper low and a bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest that sellers might be losing momentum.

The RSI has been trending higher, although it is still below the 50 midline, highlighting a mild bearish pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is flat near the zero line, pointing to a lack of strong directional momentum, altogether showing an indecisive market.

Bulls would need to confirm above the area around 0.8685 (April 8, 14 lows, and April 24 high) to clear the path towards trendline resistance, now at 0.8705. Key support is at the confluence of Thursday and Friday’s lows, between 0.8655 and 0.8660, and the channel bottom, at 0.8650. Further down, the next target is the March 24 and 26 lows near 0.8635.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.21%-0.16%-0.16%-0.40%-0.49%-0.51%-0.11%
EUR0.21%0.08%0.07%-0.19%-0.26%-0.29%0.10%
GBP0.16%-0.08%0.00%-0.24%-0.34%-0.37%0.04%
JPY0.16%-0.07%0.00%-0.23%-0.34%-0.38%0.08%
CAD0.40%0.19%0.24%0.23%-0.10%-0.14%0.29%
AUD0.49%0.26%0.34%0.34%0.10%-0.01%0.39%
NZD0.51%0.29%0.37%0.38%0.14%0.01%0.41%
CHF0.11%-0.10%-0.04%-0.08%-0.29%-0.39%-0.41%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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GBP loses ground as US–Iran peace talks stall

  • GBP/USD remains in the negative territory due to stalled US–Iran peace talks.
  • US–Iran peace talks stalled after Trump canceled a Pakistan delegation for potential negotiations.
  • USD strengthens on safe-haven demand as Israel-Hezbollah clashes intensify despite a US-brokered ceasefire extension.

GBP/USD remains in the negative territory after trimming daily losses, trading around 1.3520 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair faced pressure as the risk-sensitive Pound Sterling (GBP) weakened amid stalled US–Iran peace talks.

US President Donald Trump called off that delegation to Pakistan to potentially discuss directly with Iran, Bloomberg reported on Sunday. “If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us. You know, there is a telephone. We have nice, secure lines,” said Trump.

Trump on Saturday told Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to skip the trip to Pakistan, which is mediating talks, saying that Iran “offered a lot, but not enough. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that his nation won’t enter “imposed negotiations under threats or blockade.”

CNN reported that President Trump was swiftly escorted off the stage by Secret Service after possible shots were fired at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in Washington, DC, on Saturday. Vice President JD Vance and several members of Trump’s Cabinet, who were also in attendance, were also rushed out.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthened against major peers on safe-haven demand as the ceasefire comes under strain, with Israel and Hezbollah escalating attacks despite a US-brokered extension meant to halt fighting for three weeks.

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EUR/GBP remains stalled below 0.8680 following strong UK Retail Sales data

  • EUR/GBP recovery from 0.8654 lows remains capped below 0.8680.
  • UK Retail Sales beat expectations in March, but mainly due to fuel sales.
  • The stalemate in Iran keeps the EUR and the GBP vulnerable against the US Dollar.

The Euro (EUR) remains practically flat against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, trading at 0.8675 at the time of writing, with resistance at the 0.8680 area capping Thursday’s rebound from 0.8654 lows. The strong UK retail consumption data, which has shown a larger-than-expected rebound in March, has failed to make any significant impact on the pair so far. 

Data released by National Statistics on Friday revealed that UK Retail Sales rose by 0.7% in March, following a 0.6% contraction in February, and beating expectations of a 0.2% gain. The core Retail Sales, excluding fuel and automobile sales, however, rose at a modest 0.2% pace in March, in line with the market expectations, also after a 0.6% decline in the previous month.

Higher energy costs are a concern for UK businesses and consumers

On Thursday, preliminary UK business activity showed that both the manufacturing and services sectors continued to expand at healthy levels, but costs reached their highest levels since records began, clouding the outlook for future economic activity.

Later in the day, the GfK Consumer Confidence index deteriorated to its lowest levels in three years. UK consumers have grown more pessimistic, wary that prices will continue growing amid the energy shock triggered by Iran’s war and that mortgage costs will increase, assuming that the Bank of England (BoE) will hike interest rates. These figures hurt the Pound and provided some support to a weak Euro.

In Europe, the focus on Friday is on the German IFO business climate data, which is also expected to have deteriorated in April, weighed by the higher costs of energy.

On the geopolitical front, the peace process between Iran and the US remains stalled while tensions between the two countries grow. Iran released footage of a seizure of a cargo vessel on the Strait of Hormuz, and US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy any ship mining the waterway. The escalating tensions and the absence of news about the new round of talks, scheduled for this week, are weighing both currencies against the safe-haven US Dollar.

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GBP steadies above 1.3450 following UK Retail Sales data

  • GBP/USD remains flat after UK Retail Sales rebounded 0.7% MoM in March, against a 0.1% growth expected.
  • US Dollar gains on safe-haven demand amid persistent uncertainty over the US–Iran conflict.
  • Lebanon seeks one-month ceasefire extension, though Israel’s ambassador says outcome “not 100%” certain.

GBP/USD steadies after three days of losses, trading around 1.3470 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair stays calm following the release of United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data, which rebounded 0.7% month-over-month (MoM) in March after declining by a revised 0.6% in February. The market forecast was for a 0.1% growth in the reported month.

The annual UK Retail Sales rose 1.7% in March, slightly below the prior 1.8% (revised from 2.5%) but above expectations of 1.3%. Core Retail Sales, excluding auto fuel, increased 0.2% MoM, reversing a revised 0.6% decline (from -0.4%). On an annual basis, core Retail Sales grew 1.7% in March, down from February’s 2.7% (revised from 3.4%).

The GBP/USD pair may further depreciate as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from safe-haven demand amid persistent uncertainty surrounding the United States (US)–Iran conflict. The Guardian reported on Thursday that Lebanon will push for a one-month extension of the current ceasefire with Israel during a second round of direct talks in Washington. Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Danny Danon, said in a CNN News interview on Friday that the Lebanon ceasefire extension is “not 100%”.

The US military intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers attempting to evade its blockade, as Washington presses ahead with efforts to curb Iran’s shipping. Meanwhile, Tehran continues to threaten vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. US military officials are also preparing contingency plans to target Iran’s capabilities in the Strait should the current ceasefire collapse.

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Currency Talk – EURCAD, EURUSD, GBPUSD

The Overbalance analysis aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures EURCAD Since March 10, EURCAD has been trading in an uptrend; however, during yesterday’s session, the local 1:1 bullish pattern was negated at the 1.6040 level. According to the Overbalance methodology, this may support a scenario involving a return to the downtrend. Further confirmation would be a return of the price below the 1.5948 level, i.e., back into the previous downtrend. On the other hand, a break above 1.6040 could restore the bullish scenario.

EURCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation EURUSD Since mid-March, the EURUSD has been trending upward, but in recent days we have seen a downward correction. The price is approaching key support at the 1.1650 level, which stems from the lower boundary of the local 1:1 pattern. A potential bounce at this point could lead to the generation of another upward impulse. Conversely, a sustained break below the 1.1650 level would open the way for a return to the downtrend.

EURUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation GBPUSD The GBPUSD pair is showing a situation very similar to that of the EURUSD. An uptrend has been in place since late March, but a correction has emerged in recent days. Should this correction deepen, the key support level remains at 1.3428. A break below this level could open the way for declines, which would be confirmed upon a drop below 1.3360—the polarity of the previously negated 1:1 downward geometric pattern.

GBPUSD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

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EUR/GBP posts modest gains above 0.8650 ahead of Eurozone, UK PMI releases

  • EUR/GBP posts modest gains near 0.8675 in Thursday’s early European session. 
  • The UK CPI inflation climbed to 3.3%YoY in March, driven by higher fuel costs due to the Iran war.
  • ECB’s Simkus said the central bank shouldn’t raise interest rates in April.

The EUR/GBP cross trades with mild gains around 0.8675 during the early European session on Thursday. However, the potential upside for the cross might be limited due to hot UK inflation data. Traders will keep an eye on the preliminary readings of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from the Eurozone and the United Kingdom (UK). 

Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday showed that the UK headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 3.3% YoY in March, compared to 3.0% in February. This increase marks the first official reflection of the US-Israel war with Iran on the UK’s cost of living. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy items, climbed 3.1% YoY in March, versus 3.2% prior, below the forecast of 3.2%.

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to hold the base rate at 3.75% at its next meeting on April 30, though the jump in inflation has fueled speculation of potential future hikes or delayed cuts.

The European Central Bank (ECB) officials are leaning toward leaving interest rates unchanged at the April policy meeting. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said on Wednesday that the central bank has ‘luxury’ to wait on interest rate rises. 

Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Gediminas Simkus reiterated the cautious stance regarding the ECB’s monetary policy, saying that while a rate hike in April is unlikely, the door remains open for policy tightening later this year. While a hold is expected in the April policy meeting, Barclays analysts anticipate the focus to shift toward potential 25 basis point (bps) hikes in June and September to combat an energy-driven inflation surge.

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GBP/USD Tests nine-day EMA support after slipping below 1.3500

  • GBP/USD may rebound toward the two-month high of 1.3599.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 56 indicates positive momentum without overbought conditions.
  • The immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.3493.

GBP/USD remains subdued for the third successive day, trading around 1.3500 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a potential for bearish reversal as the pair moves below the ascending channel pattern.

However, the GBP/USD pair holds a constructive bullish bias as it stays marginally above the nine-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and comfortably over the 50-period EMA. This alignment of short- and medium-term EMAs below spot hints at underlying demand. The 14-day Relative Strength Index around 56 suggests positive but not overstretched momentum, allowing room for further upside while the pair remains supported on dips.

The return to the ascending channel would lead the GBP/USD pair to test the initial barrier at the two-month high of 1.3599, recorded on April 17. Further advances would support the pair to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3810. A break above the channel would reinforce the bullish bias and support the GBP/USD pair to approach the 1.3869, the highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27.

On the downside, the GBP/USD pair is testing the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 1.3493, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.3427. A sustained break below these short- and medium-term averages would expose a nearly five-month low of 1.3159, recorded on March 31, followed by the 1.3010, the lowest since April 2025, which was recorded in November 2025.

GBP/USD: Daily Chart

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.07%0.11%0.05%0.02%0.23%0.24%0.12%
EUR-0.07%0.05%-0.02%-0.05%0.14%0.16%0.03%
GBP-0.11%-0.05%-0.06%-0.10%0.11%0.12%-0.02%
JPY-0.05%0.02%0.06%-0.04%0.19%0.17%0.06%
CAD-0.02%0.05%0.10%0.04%0.23%0.22%0.08%
AUD-0.23%-0.14%-0.11%-0.19%-0.23%0.02%-0.15%
NZD-0.24%-0.16%-0.12%-0.17%-0.22%-0.02%-0.15%
CHF-0.12%-0.03%0.02%-0.06%-0.08%0.15%0.15%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).