GBP 8 - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

BoE’s Bailey speaks on interest rate outlook, takes media questions

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey is addressing a press conference and responding to media questions, explaining the reasons behind the central bank’s decision to hold the benchmark policy rate at 3.75% in an 8-1 vote split following the April monetary policy meeting.

Key takeaways from Bailey’s Press Conference

Monetary policy cannot prevent higher global energy prices from affecting uk economy and inflation.

Where we go from here will depend on size and duration of shock to energy prices.

We now project inflation will rise to a little over 3.5% by end of year.

Initial indirect effects of inflation are likely to be largest for food prices.

The longer the conflict in Middle East lasts, the worse the impact will become.

Size of second round effects is uncertain and will take time to build.

Monetary policy faces a difficult judgement call as cannot wait for conclusive evidence on 2nd round effects.

Under scenarios A and B, necessary interest rate response is largely achieved by not cutting rates as was expected in Feb and without further rate increase.

Prolonged spike in energy prices could lead to higher Bank Rate.

There is a good deal of space available to accommodate inflation pressures by not cutting rates as had been previously expected.

Sheer volatility of energy prices makes it impossible to put probabilities on different scenarios.

It would be a mistake to wait for second round effects before acting, that would be too late.

It will take time before we get a good read on pay as most annual settlements have already been agreed.

I think energy price profile of scenario B is more plausible than scenario A.

We do not hear that rapid return to pre-conflict energy supply conditions is likely

It is an active hold today, not a passive one.

Developing story, please refresh the page for updates.

This section below was published at 11:00 GMT to cover the Bank of England’s policy announcements and the initial market reaction.

The Bank of England (BoE) announced on Thursday that it left the benchmark policy rate unchanged at 3.75%, as widely expected, following the conclusion of the April monetary policy meeting.

The vote showed the expected split on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with one member favoring a 25-basis point (bps) rate hike.

Takeaways from BoE Monetary Policy Summary

BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill voted to increase rates by 0.25 percentage points

Bailey says “reasonable” to hold rates at 3.75% given uk economic situation and uncertainty in Middle East.

CPI likely to be higher this year as effect of higher energy prices passes through.

Bailey says our job is to make sure that inflation gets back to 2% after initial impact of war on energy prices has passed.

BoE says there is a risk of material second-round effects from inflation on wage- and price-setting, policy would need to lean against this.

BoE says weaker economy and labour market and tighter financial conditions will help reduce inflation over time.

BoE Monetary Policy Report highlights

BoE has not updated central economic forecasts, gives new forecasts based on three scenarios for energy prices and inflation persistence.

BoE forecasts 2026 CPI averaging 3.3%-4.5% under different scenarios (Feb central projection: 2.2%).

BoE forecasts 2027 CPI averaging 2.6%-4.8% under different scenarios (Feb central projection: 1.9%).

BoE forecasts 2028 CPI averaging 1.5%-2.9% under different scenarios (Feb central projection: 2.0%).

BoE forecasts for 2027 GDP growth 0.8%-1.0% under different scenarios (Feb central projection 1.5%).

BoE forecasts for 2026 GDP growth 0.7%-0.8% under different scenarios (Feb central projection 0.9%).

BoE says most inflationary scenario “was likely to warrant a forceful tightening of monetary policy”.

BoE projections show inflation peaking at 6.2% in Q1 2027 under most inflationary scenario if rates only rise as markets expect.

Market reaction to BoE policy announcements

The Pound Sterling shows little reaction to the BoE policy announcements, with GBP/USD up 0.34% on the day at 1.3515, as of writing.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.24%	-0.31%	-1.90%	-0.22%	-0.52%	-0.59%	-0.69%
EUR	0.24%		-0.03%	-1.68%	0.02%	-0.27%	-0.32%	-0.42%
GBP	0.31%	0.03%		-1.66%	0.06%	-0.22%	-0.27%	-0.39%
JPY	1.90%	1.68%	1.66%		1.70%	1.41%	1.29%	1.20%
CAD	0.22%	-0.02%	-0.06%	-1.70%		-0.31%	-0.39%	-0.48%
AUD	0.52%	0.27%	0.22%	-1.41%	0.31%		-0.05%	-0.15%
NZD	0.59%	0.32%	0.27%	-1.29%	0.39%	0.05%		-0.10%
CHF	0.69%	0.42%	0.39%	-1.20%	0.48%	0.15%	0.10%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

GBP faces pressure after BoE leaves interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, as expected

The Pound Sterling comes under pressure against its peers after the BoE’s interest rate decision.
The BoE maintains the status quo, leaving interest rates unchanged at 3.75%.
On Wednesday, the Fed held interest rates steady in the range of 3.50%-3.75%.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces selling pressure, prima facie, after the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement. As expected, the BoE has left interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, with an 8-1 majority. This is the third straight meeting that the BoE has maintained the status quo.

BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill was the one Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member who dissented from the hold decision and voted for an interest rate hike. Pill was expected to advocate an interest rate hike, as he stated in an event in the middle of the month, that interest rates should be raised for inflation to return to the central bank’s 2% target.

The BoE needs to make decisions that give “the most insurance” against a repeat of the 2022 inflation shock, Pill argued, warning against a “wait and see approach,” Bloomberg reported.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) faces intense selling despite growing concerns over the Strait of Hormuz outlook and a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) hold.

United States (US) President Donald Trump stated on late Wednesday that Washington’s naval blockade of Iranian sea ports will continue until Iran gives up its nuclear ambitions.

On Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, however, three members of the rate-setting committee dissented the decision and advocated for a move away from the monetary easing bias.

Going forward, investors will focus on the US preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. On an annualized basis, the US GDP growth is expected to have remained higher at 2.3% against the previous reading of 0.5%.

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

Bank of England – Preview

H is for hawk The Bank of England will announce its latest policy decision at midday on Thursday. The market is expecting no change in rates from the Bank, and we expect an 8-1 vote split, with one of the noted hawks at the bank voting to increase rates.

The backdrop to this meeting is a deeply uncertain global outlook and the threat of a bigger inflation spike after another surge in the oil price, which has risen to a fresh war-time high on Thursday morning to more than $123 per barrel for Brent, as the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz looks like it will be in place for the long term and as Donald Trump mulls ending the ceasefire with Iran. We expect the BOE to remain as calm and composed as possible considering the backdrop, and to stress the uncertain outlook, however, now that the oil price is rising again and oil supply is likely to remain constrained for the long term, the BOE may find it hard to avoid straying into hawkish territory as it balances growth risks with inflation concerns.

We expect the Bank will stress the need to watch for second round inflation effects, for example wage growth. So far, the survey data does not suggest that firms are likely to raise wages, and the labor market is still soft, even if the unemployment rate fell below 5% in the 3 months to February. The latest DMP survey shows that expectations for wage growth this year are unchanged at 3.5%. The Bank may also address the increase in inflation expectations, which rose by 2.1% in March, according to the latest Citi-YouGov survey. This suggests that consumers are concerned about a 2022-style energy price shock, even if the Bank has been keen to stress that the economic backdrop is different this time.

Assessing the chance of a hawkish shock at the BOE

A hawkish shock would be a larger number of MPC members voting for a rate hike, especially since signals coming from the March data have been resilient so far. If we get a 6-3 split, then this could open the door to a June rate hike. That might sound hasty, however, an early hike could nip in the bud any threat of second round inflation effects, especially if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasts for the long term and the oil price stays in triple figures.

What will the BOE do next

Although we do not expect any forward guidance from the BOE at today’s meeting, the market is convinced that the next move from the BOE is a rate hike. There is roughly an 84% chance of two rate hikes from the BOE this year, and the market expects rates to rise to 4.25% to combat the threat of rising inflation caused by the energy price spike. The market is expecting the BOE to signal that rates will remain higher for longer, and for now, UK inflation is expected to peak at 4% this year.

Fed’s hawkish tilt

Today’s BOE meeting follows Wednesday night’s Fed meeting. The Fed did not change policy, but it is worth noting that its policy decision was the most divided since 1992. On the back of the Fed meeting, traders now see a rate hike as more likely than a rate cut for this year, following the Fed’s hawkish hold on Jerome Powell’s last meeting as chair. There is now an 11% chance of a hike from the Fed this year, up from 5% prior to the meeting. The Fed did not change the language used in its statement at this meeting, which suggests that cuts could still be on the cards for US interest rates. However, Powell suggested that this language could be adapted in future if elevated oil prices persist and three Fed governors opposed the current language used in the statement.

The market reacted to the hawkish tone at the Fed. The Dow Jones slumped 250 points, the dollar ticked higher and US stock index futures are also pointing to losses for the S&P 500 on Thursday. We think that the market reaction to the BOE meeting is likely to be mostly felt in the bond market. UK 2-year yields rose by 8 bps on Wednesday, and yields are higher by 26bps in the past month. The 2-year yield is now trading at 4.55%, so a lot of BOE hawkishness is already priced into UK bonds. We think that the oil price is more important for the direction of UK yields and sentiment towards UK assets more generally. UK stocks have slipped behind their US counterparts in recent weeks, and until there is a rotation out of US tech stocks and into defense names like BAE Systems and Rolls Royce, we could see the UK index may continue to struggle.

Chart 1: FTSE 100 and the S&P 500

Source: XTB

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

Currency Talk – EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, AUD/USD

Key takeaways

What is the technical outlook for EURGBP, EURAUD, and AUDUSD?

The Overbalance analysis aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures. EURGBP From March 20 through the end of the month, EURGBP traded in an uptrend, but the subsequent correction turned into a stronger downtrend. After the 1:1 upward pattern was negated at the 0.8693 level, the declines accelerated. Currently, the 0.8693–0.8688 zone represents key resistance. Only a return of the price above this zone could shift the balance of power on the chart. For now, the base scenario remains a decline toward the lows at 0.8617.

EURGBP – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation EURAUD From March 11 through the end of the month, the EURAUD pair was in an uptrend; however, the largest corrective pattern was subsequently negated at the 1.6680 level, which was then tested from the opposite side. Since then, we have observed the development of a downtrend. The largest current corrective pattern (marked in red) defines a key resistance level at 1.6470. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as the price remains below this level, the downtrend remains in effect.

EURAUD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation AUDUSD Since late March, the AUDUSD pair has been in an uptrend. Recently, the exchange rate has twice tested support at the 0.7015 level, which corresponds to the lower boundary of the 1:1 pattern. As long as this level holds, the uptrend remains intact. It is worth noting, however, that another test of this zone could weaken it, increasing the risk of it being broken and thus triggering a larger downward correction.

AUDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

EUR/GBP softens to near 0.8650 on weak German Retail Sales, ECB and BoE rate decisions loom

EUR/GBP softens to around 0.8660 in Thursday’s early European session.
German Retail Sales fell by 2.0% MoM in March, weaker than expected.
The ECB and BoE interest rate decisions will take center stage later on Thursday.

The EUR/GBP cross declines to near 0.8660 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) following the downbeat German Retail Sales data. The preliminary readings of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from Germany and the Eurozone are due later on Thursday. Also, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decisions will be in the spotlight.

Data released by Destatis on Thursday showed that German Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, fell 2.0% MoM in March. This figure followed a decline of 0.3% in February (revised from -0.6%) and came in weaker than the expectations of a 0.1% decrease.

On an annualized basis, Retail Sales dropped 2.0% in March, versus an estimated rise of 0.5% and the prior release of 0.9% growth (revised from 0.7%). The EUR attracts some sellers in an immediate reaction to the weaker German economic data.

The ECB is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Thursday due to high uncertainty. Nonetheless, rising inflation, driven by energy price volatility from the Iran war, has raised the expectation of a rate hike in June. Economists predict a quarter-point hike at June’s meeting, and markets now fully price two additional ones after that before the year is out, according to Bloomberg.

The BoE is likely to keep interest rates on hold at its April policy meeting on Thursday as it awaits the economic fallout from the Iran war. Traders will closely monitor the speech from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey for any ‌suggestions that higher borrowing costs are likely to be needed.

“The hikes fully priced into financial markets were already weighing on the economy, reducing the likelihood that the BoE will actually have to raise Bank Rate, at least for now,” said Andrew Wishart, senior UK economist at Berenberg.

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

GBP flat lines vs USD as traders await BoE policy update and US PCE Price Index

GBP/USD bulls seem hesitant as the Fed’s hawkish tilt and the US-Iran tensions underpin the USD.
Bets for two BoE rate hikes in 2026 offer support to the GBP and act as a tailwind for spot prices.
Traders also seem reluctant ahead of the BoE decision and the crucial US PCE Price Index data.

The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick to the 1.3500 neighborhood, though it holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3475-1.3480 region, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders look forward to the Bank of England (BoE) event and the US inflation data for a fresh impetus.

The UK central bank is scheduled to announce its policy decision later today and is expected to keep interest rates on hold. The current market pricing, however, points to a greater possibility of two rate hikes in 2026 amid inflation risks stemming from the war-driven surge in energy prices. Hence, the focus will be on the accompanying policy statement and the post-meeting press conference, where comments from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will be scrutinized for cues about the interest rate path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the British Pound (GBP).

Traders will further take cues from the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which should further provide some meaningful impetus to the GBP/USD pair later today. In the meantime, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish tilt, along with the US-Iran stalemate, might continue to act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside for the currency pair. The Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday saw the highest number of dissents since 1992, with three policymakers voting against the accommodative tone in the policy statement.

Traders were quick to reduce bets on any further easing by the Fed in 2026; instead, they are now pricing in over a 10% chance of a rate increase by the year-end. On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s new proposal to end the two-month conflict and reiterated that there will be no peace deal with the Islamic Republic unless it agrees to give up the nuclear program. Trump further added that the naval blockade of Iranian ports will continue, which keeps geopolitical risks in play. This, in turn, favors the USD bulls and should keep a lid on the GBP/USD pair.

Currency Hedger April 29, 2026 No Comments

GBP/USD Price Trades sideways around 1.3500 ahead of Fed-BoE rate decisions

GBP/USD wobbles around 1.3500 as the US Dollar consolidates in the countdown to Fed-BoE policy announcements.
The Fed is expected to warn of upside inflation risks after leaving interest rates unchanged.
Investors expect the BoE to hold interest rates steady at 3.75%.

The GBP/USD pair is broadly sideways around 1.3500 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Cable consolidates as investors await monetary policy announcements by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE).

The Fed is anticipated to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% in its monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT, according to the CME FedWatch tool. In the monetary policy statement, the Fed is expected to warn about de-anchored inflation projections and growing economic risks amid higher oil prices due to prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure.

Ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 98.70.

On Thursday, the BoE is expected to hold interest rates steady at 3.75%, with an 8-1 majority. In an event at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this month, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the war has resulted in a “big negative shock” to the economy; however, there is no rush for any monetary policy adjustment.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades flat at around 1.3500, holding a modest bullish bias as it sits above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3470 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3432.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55.4 leans slightly positive, suggesting buyers retain the upper hand while upside traction remains gradual.

On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3515, with further barriers at the 61.8% level at 1.3599, followed by 1.3718 and 1.3870. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA at 1.3470, ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 1.3432; a deeper pullback would expose the 23.6% level at 1.3328 and the structural floor near 1.3161.

Currency Hedger April 29, 2026 No Comments

GBP/USD – Hovers around nine-day EMA near 1.3500

GBP/USD may appreciate toward the two-month high of 1.3599.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 56 signals positive momentum without indicating overbought conditions.
The pair is testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3510.

GBP/USD inches higher after registering little losses in the previous day, trading around 1.3520 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a potential for a bearish reversal as the pair is hovering around the lower boundary of the ascending channel pattern.

However, the GBP/USD pair maintains a modest bullish bias as it holds above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA. The clustering of these averages below the spot suggests a supportive backdrop after the recent advance, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index around 56 hints at positive but not overextended momentum, leaving room for further gains while the pair remains under nearby resistance.

The GBP/USD pair may rise toward the primary barrier at the two-month high of 1.3599, recorded on April 17. Further advances would support the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel near the 1.3869, the highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27.

On the downside, the GBP/USD pair is testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3510. aligned with the nine-day EMA of 1.3509. Further support lies at the 50-day EMA at 1.3440. A successful break below this confluence support zone would expose the five-month low of 1.3159, recorded on March 31, followed by the 1.3010, the lowest since April 2025, which was recorded in November 2025.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.02%	-0.03%	-0.02%	-0.01%	0.11%	0.14%	-0.11%
EUR	0.02%		-0.03%	0.02%	0.00%	0.11%	0.18%	-0.08%
GBP	0.03%	0.03%		0.02%	0.02%	0.13%	0.18%	-0.07%
JPY	0.02%	-0.02%	-0.02%		-0.01%	0.13%	0.18%	-0.04%
CAD	0.01%	-0.00%	-0.02%	0.01%		0.14%	0.18%	-0.07%
AUD	-0.11%	-0.11%	-0.13%	-0.13%	-0.14%		0.05%	-0.25%
NZD	-0.14%	-0.18%	-0.18%	-0.18%	-0.18%	-0.05%		-0.26%
CHF	0.11%	0.08%	0.07%	0.04%	0.07%	0.25%	0.26%