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NZD weakens despite stronger Trade Balance data

  • NZD/USD falls despite a record-high NZD 1.92 billion April Trade Surplus that beat market expectations.
  • The RBNZ is expected to remain cautious on tightening to avoid choking off a fragile recovery following a recent recession.
  • FOMC April Meeting Minutes indicated that the Fed may raise interest rates if inflation stays stubbornly above their 2% target.

NZD/USD depreciates after registering 0.62% gains in the previous day, trading around 0.5860 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) may regain its ground against the US Dollar as Statistics New Zealand reported that the country’s Trade Surplus widened sharply to a record high of NZD 1.92 billion month-over-month (MoM) in April, up from NZD 0.43 billion in March. This stellar performance comfortably beat market expectations of a much smaller NZD 0.98 billion surplus.

The record-breaking surplus was driven by a powerful surge in outbound shipments, with exports rising to an all-time high of NZD 8.6 billion. In contrast, annual imports declined to NZD 6.7 billion. This trade imbalance underscores highly resilient external demand for New Zealand’s goods, offering a buffer against broader global geopolitical uncertainties.

Despite the strong export performance, the domestic economic picture remains mixed, which could limit the NZD’s upside. Recent indicators point to softening economic momentum at home, prompting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to maintain a cautious stance regarding further policy tightening. Because the domestic economy has only recently emerged from a recession and continues to operate with significant spare capacity, policymakers are hesitant to choke off the fragile recovery.

The NZD/USD pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground amid increased risk aversion, which could be attributed to United States (US)-Iran uncertainty and hawkish monetary policy signals.

Traders adopt caution due to tense United States (US)-Iran peace negotiations against renewed threats to the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. A Bloomberg report on Wednesday stated that US President Donald Trump said that negotiations with Iran were in their final stages. This raised market expectations that the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen.

However, President Trump also reiterated to resume military actions within days if Iran rejects his terms. In response, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian struck a defiant tone on the social media platform X, stating that Tehran has no intention of capitulating and calling any attempt to force a surrender through coercion “nothing more than an illusion.”

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes for the April meeting, released on Wednesday, indicated that a majority of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials warned that the central bank would likely need to consider raising interest rates if inflation remains persistently above their 2% target. The minutes underscored deepening concerns within the Fed regarding inflation risks driven by the ongoing geopolitical conflict.

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NZD holds losses below 0.5850 on weak Chinese data

  • NZD/USD softens to near 0.5830 in Monday’s Asian session. 
  • China’s Retail Sales rose 0.2% YoY in April; Industrial Production climbed 4.1% YoY in the same period. 
  • A surge in US inflation has triggered a shift in Fed expectations toward a rate hike. 

The NZD/USD pair trades in negative territory around 0.5830 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces some selling pressure following the downbeat Chinese economic data. 

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday showed that China’s Retail Sales rose 0.2% YoY in April, compared to 1.7% in March. This figure came in weaker than the market expectations of 2.0%. 

Additionally, Industrial Production climbed 4.1% YoY in the same period, versus 5.7% prior, below the market consensus of 5.9%. The China-proxy Kiwi weakens after the release of the weaker Chinese economic data. 

On the USD’s front, traders raise their bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates this year. Several Fed officials this week stated that keeping inflation pressures in check was a top priority, while others did not rule out the possibility that rate hikes may be needed if price pressures kept rising.

Markets are now pricing in nearly a 48.4% odds the Fed could hike rates by at least 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, compared with 14.3% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

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Currency Talk – USDCAD, AUDUSD, EURNZD

Key takeaways

  • What is the technical outlook for USDCAD, AUDUSD and EURNZD?

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analysed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis utilises only the Overbalance methodology, which helps to identify points where a trend may continue or where a reversal may occur. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, assessed solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures. USDCAD USDCAD prices remained in a downtrend throughout April, but in recent days the 1:1 downtrend pattern has been negated at the 1.3630 level, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, may signal a significant upward correction or even a trend reversal. Currently, the key support level remains at 1.3655, where the lower boundary of the local 1:1 pattern is located. As long as the price remains above this level, the bullish scenario remains in place. Conversely, a return below 1.3630, i.e. below the polarity of the previously negated pattern, could once again open the way for further declines.

USDCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation AUDUSD The AUDUSD exchange rate has been on an upward trend since the beginning of April. The key support level for the exchange rate is currently 0.7170. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as the price remains above this level, the upward trend remains in place.

AUDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation EURNZD Since 7 April, the EURNZD has been trading in a downtrend. Should the upward correction extend, the key resistance level remains at 1.9872. As long as the price stays below this level, the bearish scenario remains in place. Conversely, for a return to the uptrend to be considered, the price would need to rise above the 1.9969 level, where the polarity of the previously negated 1:1 upward geometry is located.

EURNZD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

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NZD weakens to near 0.5950 despite hotter Chinese CPI inflation data

  • NZD/USD softens to around 0.5950 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
  • China’s April CPI and PPI came in hotter than expected as the Iran war drives energy costs higher. 
  • China and the US will hold trade talks later this week. 

The NZD/USD pair trades in negative territory near 0.5950 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains weak against the US Dollar (USD) after the release of the Chinese inflation report. The US Existing Home Sales data for April is due later on Monday. 

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Monday showed that the country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 1.2% in April, compared to a rise of 1.0% in March. This figure came in hotter than the expectations of 0.8%. On a monthly basis, Chinese CPI inflation arrived at 0.3% MoM in April, versus a fall of 0.7% prior, hotter than the expectation of a 0.1% decline.

Furthermore, the Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 2.8% YoY in April, following a 0.5% increase in March. The data came in above the market consensus of a 1.5% rise. However, the Chinese inflation data have little to no impact on the China-proxy Kiwi. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to host US President Donald Trump later this week, as both countries seek to stabilize a relationship strained by tensions over trade, export controls, Taiwan, and the Iran war.

Trump on Sunday dismissed Iran’s response to US proposals to end the war as “totally unacceptable.” The Tasnim news agency said that Iran’s proposal included an immediate end to the war on all fronts, a halt to a US naval blockade, and guarantees of no further attacks on Iran. Signs of prolonged war in the Middle East could boost the Greenback as a safe-haven currency in the near term. 

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NZD/USD gains traction above 0.5950 on US-Iran peace deal hopes

  • NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5960 in Thursday’s Asian session. 
  • Iran is expected to respond to the US proposal on Thursday. 
  • RBNZ’s Breman said growth is expected to be slightly slower but is still expected this year. 

The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory around 0.5960 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) following reports that the United States (US) and Iran are close to a deal to end the war. Traders await the release of the US jobs report for April, which is due later on Friday.

CNN reported that Iran is expected to hand over its reply on Thursday to mediators about the US proposal to end the war. Earlier Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said the US has had “very good talks” with Iran over the past 24 hours. A potential agreement with Iran to end the ongoing conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz could lift the riskier assets, such as the Kiwi against the USD, in the near term. 

The US jobs data for April will take center stage later on Friday. Economists expect a gain of 60,000 jobs for April, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.3%. If the report shows stronger-than-expected outcomes, this could provide some support to the Greenback and create a headwind for the pair. 

On the other hand, New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate fell unexpectedly to 5.3% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 from 5.4% in the previous reading. This report has kept market expectations for a near-term rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). 

RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said early Thursday that she anticipates slightly elevated near-term inflation. She further stated that growth would be slightly slower but still expected this year. 

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Currency Talk – USD/CAD, NZD/USD, EUR/NZD

Key takeaways

  • What is the technical outlook for USDCAD, NZDUSD, and EURNZD?

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analysed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis utilises only the Overbalance methodology, which helps to identify points where a trend may continue or where a reversal may occur. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, assessed solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.

USDCAD

USDCAD prices have been on a downward trend since the beginning of April. The chart shows a 1:1 pattern with a range of around 80 pips. Although the latest pattern has been slightly breached, the price has not exceeded the 127.2% level, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, indicates that the downward trend remains intact. The current correction has stalled around 1.3630, where the upper boundary of the 1:1 pattern is located. Until this level is broken, the scenario of further declines remains in place.

USDCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

NZDUSD

Since 6 April, NZDUSD has been trading within a local uptrend. The lower boundary of the pattern at 0.5840 has recently been tested twice. This level was only slightly breached, but the price failed to return below the polarity of the previously negated downward pattern at 0.5828, which led to the emergence of another upward impulse. According to the Overbalance methodology, the uptrend remains in place, and the key support level remains at 0.5865, derived from the lower boundary of the green 1:1 pattern. The pattern remains valid as it has only been slightly breached but not negated.

NZDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

EURNZD

Since 7 April, the EURNZD has been trading in a downtrend. The price attempted to break through the support level at 1.9969 on several occasions and eventually both broke through it and negated the 1:1 upward trend, confirming the bearish scenario. In the event of a correction, the key short-term resistance remains at 1.9930. If the downward movement continues, the lows from February and March at 1.9540 remain a potential target for selling.

EURNZD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

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NZD/USD struggles above mid-0.5800s as Iran tensions and Fed outlook support USD

  • NZD/USD attracts sellers for the third straight day as Mideast tensions benefit the safe-haven USD.
  • Rising Oil prices fuel inflationary concerns and hawkish Fed bets, which further underpin the buck.
  • Hawkish RBNZ expectations could offer some support to the NZD and help limit losses for the pair.

The NZD/USD pair remains under some selling pressure for the third consecutive day and trades around the 0.5865-0.5860 area during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices seem vulnerable to extend the previous day’s retracement slide from the 0.5925 horizontal resistance, or over a two-week high, as rising geopolitical tensions continue to underpin the US Dollar (USD).

In the latest developments, US President Donald Trump told Fox News on Monday that Iran will be blown off the face of the earth if they attack US vessels engaged in Project Freedom – aimed at guiding ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. Elsewhere, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reported that its air defenses had engaged with missile attacks and incoming drones from Iran. This comes on top of the lack of progress in US-Iran peace talks and keeps geopolitical risks in play, which is seen acting as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD and exerting pressure on the NZD/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the US-Iran standoff led to the overnight rise in Crude Oil prices, reviving inflationary concerns and bets for more hawkish central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The outlook remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and turns out to be another factor further benefiting the buck. Meanwhile, expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would maintain a cautious stance or consider tightening to bring inflation back to the 2% midpoint could support the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and limit losses for the NZD/USD pair.

Even from a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures near the 0.5920-0.5925 supply zone validate the negative outlook and suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside. However, last week’s resilience below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for any further losses. Traders now look to the US macro data – ISM Services PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, and New Home Sales. This, along with speeches by FOMC members, might influence the USD and the NZD/USD pair.

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NZD/USD approaches 0.5925 hurdle as Iran tensions loom ahead of NZ and US jobs data

  • NZD/USD shows some resilience below 0.5900 and attracts some dip-buyers on Monday.
  • US-Iran tensions and reviving Fed rate cut bets support the USD and might cap the pair.
  • Traders this week will take cues from NZ employment details and the key US NFP report.

The NZD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers at the start of a new week and climbs back above the 0.5900 mark during the Asian session. Bulls, however, need to wait for a convincing breakout through the 0.5920-0.5925 horizontal barrier before positioning for any further gains, as the focus remains glued to developments surrounding the Middle East crisis.

US President Donald Trump announced over the weekend that the US will begin guiding neutral ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz under an operation called Project Freedom and added that if this process is disrupted, we will deal with it by force. In response, Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission, issued a formal warning that any US interference in the strategic waterway would constitute a ceasefire violation. This keeps geopolitical risks in play, which could benefit the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair.

Meanwhile, Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari said on Sunday that a prolonged Iran conflict increases inflation risks and economic damage. Moreover, Kashkari raised the possibility of moving rates higher, citing uncertainty around all aspects of the war. This turns out to be another factor underpinning the USD. However, expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would maintain a cautious stance or consider tightening to bring inflation back to the 2% midpoint counter the negative factors, supporting the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the NZD/USD pair.

The mixed fundamental backdrop, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for a sustained strength beyond the aforementioned barrier before positioning for the resumption of the recent strong move up from the April monthly swing low. There isn’t any relevant economic data due for release from the US on Monday, leaving the USD at the mercy of geopolitical headlines. Traders this week will further take cues from key US macro releases, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which, along with the quarterly employment report from New Zealand, should provide a fresh impetus to the NZDUSD pair.