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NZD/USD weakens as Fed policy caution, Iran tensions support US Dollar

  • NZD/USD declines as investors remain cautious ahead of the Fedโ€™s policy decision.
  • Expected pause in US rates supports the US Dollar in a higher-for-longer environment.
  • Iran-related tensions and Hormuz Strait risks weigh on sentiment and limit Kiwi upside.

NZD/USD trades lower around 0.5840 on Wednesday at the time of writing, down 0.76% on the day, as markets adopt a wait-and-see stance ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision later in the day.

The NZD/USD pairย remains under pressure as investors widely expect theย Fedย to keep interestย ratesย unchanged within the 3.5%-3.75% range, marking a fourth consecutive hold. Focus now shifts to Fed Chair Jerome Powellโ€™s press conference, which could offer clues on the future policy path, particularly as inflation continues to run above the 2% target.

A hawkish tone from theย Federal Reserveย (Fed), emphasizing persistent inflation risks, could support the US Dollar (USD) and add further downside pressure on NZD/USD in the near term. Conversely, any hints that policymakers remain open to rate cuts later this year might cap the Greenbackโ€™s strength, although it may not be enough to reverse the broader trend amid prevailing uncertainty.

On the political front, a potential leadership transition at the Fed is also drawing attention after Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the US Senate Banking Committee. He still needs full Senate approval to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, adding another layer of uncertainty for markets.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on market sentiment. Comments from US President Donald Trump regarding Iran and the potential extension of the Strait of Hormuz blockade are fueling concerns over global energy supply. The resulting rise in Oil prices is reinforcing inflationary pressures and supporting expectations of a prolonged higher-rate environment.

In this context, safe-haven demand for the US Dollar (USD) remains firm, putting pressure on risk-sensitive currencies such as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). While any signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran could temporarily improve risk appetite, persistent uncertainty is likely to limit any meaningful recovery in the Kiwi in the near term.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.15%0.20%0.38%-0.00%0.69%0.78%0.09%
EUR-0.15%0.04%0.24%-0.16%0.53%0.65%-0.07%
GBP-0.20%-0.04%0.19%-0.21%0.47%0.59%-0.11%
JPY-0.38%-0.24%-0.19%-0.40%0.31%0.42%-0.25%
CAD0.00%0.16%0.21%0.40%0.71%0.80%0.10%
AUD-0.69%-0.53%-0.47%-0.31%-0.71%0.11%-0.63%
NZD-0.78%-0.65%-0.59%-0.42%-0.80%-0.11%-0.71%
CHF-0.09%0.07%0.11%0.25%-0.10%0.63%0.71%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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New Zealand Dollar Drops for 2nd Day

The New Zealand dollar fell for a second straight session on Wednesday to $0.585, as investors digested comments from Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman. Breman said first-quarter measures of core inflation remained stable within the central bankโ€™s 1-3% target range, while emphasizing that policymakers remain focused on balancing inflation control ?while supporting an economic recovery. She also stressed that the RBNZ is prepared to act decisively and in a timely manner should short-term price pressures begin to feed into more persistent inflation. Markets are currently pricing in a rate hike as early as May. However, some caution remains, as the Middle East conflict threatens to derail the countryโ€™s fragile economic recovery. Externally, attention is fixed on the Federal Reserveโ€™s policy outcome due later today, with the bank widely expected to stand pat. Meanwhile, traders are awaiting President Trumpโ€™s response to Iranโ€™s new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

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NZD/USD eyes 0.5900 on softer USD; bulls seem cautious as US-Iran tensions persist

  • NZD/USD turns positive for the second straight day on Monday amid a modest USD downtick.
  • Stalled US-Iran peace talks, Hormuz risks, and hawkish Fed bets could limit further USD losses.
  • Traders might also opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the FOMC policy meeting this week.

The NZD/USD pairย attracts some dip-buyers at the start of a new week and builds on Friday’s bounce from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support near the 0.5840 area. Spot prices climb back closer to the 0.5900 mark during the Asian session amid a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick, though the upside seems capped on the back of geopolitical uncertainties.

A generally positive tone around the equity markets is seen undermining the safe-haven Greenback and turning out to be a key factor offering some support to the NZD/USD pair for the second consecutive day. Any meaningful USD depreciation, however, seems elusive in the wake of stalled US-Iran peace talks. In fact, US President Donald Trump cancelled envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s trip to Pakistan aimed at advancing Iran war negotiations.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he has ordered the military to vigorously attack Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. This comes on top of the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and continued supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, which revives inflationary concerns and hawkish USย Federal Reserveย (Fed) expectations. This, in turn, should limit deeper USD losses and keep a lid on further gains for the NZD/USD pair.

Traders might also opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday, which will influence the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus. In the meantime, bets that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may maintain a cautious policy stance or consider tightening to bring inflation back to the 2% midpoint amid persistent sticky inflation might hold back bearish traders from placing aggressive bets around the NZD/USD pair.

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Currency Talk – AUDCAD, NZDUSD, USDJPY

Key takeaways

  • What is the technical outlook for AUDCAD, NZDUSD, and USDJPY?

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where a reversal might occur. Todayโ€™s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.

AUDCAD

Since late March, AUDCAD has been trending upward. The key level remains the support at 0.9755, which stems from the lower boundary of the local 1:1 pattern, as well as from previous local peaks. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as the price remains above this level, the uptrend remains in effect. However, it is worth noting the lack of a clear demand reactionโ€”further tests of this support level could weaken it, increasing the risk of a breakout to the downside. Therefore, the 0.9755 level is critical in the short term for the direction of the market.

AUDCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

NZDUSD

Since early April, the NZDUSD pair has been trending upward, but the market is currently testing key support at the 0.5840 level. Holding this level could trigger another upward move. Conversely, a break below this level and a return below 0.5828 could pave the way for a resumption of the downward trend. The current levels are therefore crucial for determining the short-term direction.

NZDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

USDJPY

USDJPY has been trending upward for quite some time, but in April we saw a consolidation phase and two tests of support at the 158.10 level. This level was successfully defended, which supports the current uptrend. A break above the March 29 high would confirm the continuation of the uptrend. However, as long as support at 158.10 holds, the base case scenario is for further gains. A break below this level, however, could lead to a larger correction toward 155.11.

USDJPY – H4 chart. Source: xStation

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NZD/USD bears flirt with 200-day SMA, just below mid-0.5800s

  • NZD/USD attracts sellers for the second straight day as Iran tensions continue to underpin the USD.
  • Elevated Oil prices revive Inflation fears, tempering dovish Fed bets and further benefiting the buck.
  • Expectations that the RBNZ may consider tightening policy could limit losses for the NZD and the pair.

The NZD/USD pair is seen extending this week’s retracement slide from the 0.5925-0.5930 horizontal barrier and drifting lower for the second straight day on Friday. Spot prices slide back to the 0.5840 region during the Asian session and seem vulnerable near a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) amid a bullish US Dollar (USD).

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, retains its positive bias for the fourth straight day on the back of intensifying US-Iran tensions. Moreover, the lack of progress in peace talks, due to a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, keeps investors on edge and further benefits the USD’s safe-haven status. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting some downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair.

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the US Navy blockade of Iranian ports will continue, while Iran has set the complete removal of the blockade as a strict precondition for resuming negotiations. Furthermore, Trump ordered the US Navy to shoot and kill any boat laying mines in the critical shipping channel. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and dampens hopes for a durable de-escalation, underpinning the USD.

Meanwhile, continued disruptions to energy supplies remain supportive of elevated Crude Oil prices and fuel inflationary fears, tempering hopes for a dovish USย Federal Reserveย (Fed). Traders now see the possibility of only one 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the Fed in 2026. This backs the case for a further appreciating move for the USD and suggests that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair is to the downside.

However, persistent sticky inflation has spurred bets that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may maintain a cautious policy stance or consider tightening to bring inflation back to the 2% midpoint. In fact, data earlierย this weekย showed that New Zealand’s annual inflation held at 3.1% in the March 2026 quarter, slightly above the central bank’s 1โ€“3% target range. This could limit losses for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) andย the NZD/USD pair.

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NZD/USD gains momentum above 0.5900 on hot New Zealand CPI data

  • NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5905 in Wednesdayโ€™s Asian session.ย 
  • New Zealandโ€™s CPI rose 3.1% YoYย in Q1, hotter than expected.ย 
  • Warsh rejected senatorsโ€™ concerns that he would bend to Trumpโ€™s demands to cut interest rates.

The NZD/USD pairย gathers strength to around 0.5905 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on hotter-than-expected domestic inflation data.ย 

New Zealandโ€™s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1% YoY in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, versus 3.1% increase seen in the fourth quarter of 2025, Statistics New Zealand reported on Tuesday. This figure came in above the market consensus of 2.9%. The quarterly CPI inflation climbed to 0.9% in Q1 from the previous reading of 0.6%, beating the estimates of 0.8%.

Higher-than-expected Q1 inflation data has fueled market speculation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may need to raise interest rates sooner than previously. This, in turn, provides some support to the Kiwi. 

On the other hand, remarks fromย Federal Reserveย (Fed) Chair nominee Kevin Warsh regarding independent monetary policy might help limit the USDโ€™s losses. Warsh said on Tuesday he had madeย no promises to Trump about cutting interestย rates, as he tried to assure US senators mulling his confirmation to lead the Fed that he would act independently of the White House while pursuing broad reforms.

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NZD/USD struggles to extend gains above 0.5920, outlook remains firm

  • NZD/USD remains broadly firm above 0.5900 as market sentiment turns favorable for riskier assets.
  • Iranโ€™s confirmation for another round of peace talks with the US has improved investorsโ€™ risk appetite.
  • NZ Q1 CPI grew at a stronger pace of 0.9%m beating 0.8% estimates.

The NZD/USD pairย trades 0.3% higher above 0.5900 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, but struggles to extend its gains above 0.5920. The Kiwi pair broadly reflects strength as the market sentiment turns risk-on due to reports claiming that Iran has agreed to another round of peace talks with the United States (US).

New Zealand Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.12%0.14%0.10%0.02%0.15%-0.13%0.12%
EUR-0.12%0.03%-0.02%-0.10%0.04%-0.25%0.01%
GBP-0.14%-0.03%-0.04%-0.11%0.00%-0.28%-0.01%
JPY-0.10%0.02%0.04%-0.07%0.05%-0.26%0.02%
CAD-0.02%0.10%0.11%0.07%0.12%-0.18%0.10%
AUD-0.15%-0.04%-0.01%-0.05%-0.12%-0.30%-0.02%
NZD0.13%0.25%0.28%0.26%0.18%0.30%0.28%
CHF-0.12%-0.01%0.01%-0.02%-0.10%0.02%-0.28%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

In the Asian trade, S&P 500 futures are 0.15% higher to near 7,120, reflecting an upbeat market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenbackโ€™s value against six major currencies, is marginally higher to near 98.10.

A report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) states that Iran has told regional mediators that it would send a negotiating team to Islamabad on Tuesday for the second round of talks with the US. However, there has been no official confirmation by Tehran.

On Monday, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said that there is โ€œno plan for a second round of negotiations with the US for now. Baghaei added that the US seems โ€œnot seriousโ€ about pursuing the diplomatic process, remains committed to ‘aggressive acts’ and has violated ceasefire provisions.

On the domestic front, higher-than-projected New Zealand (NZ) Q1 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to force traders to raise bets supporting interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in the near term.

Earlier in the data, the data showed that the NZ CPI grew by 0.9%, beating estimates of 0.8% and the previous reading of 0.6%. On an annualized basis, price pressures rose steadily by 3.1%. while they were anticipated to have grown at a moderate pace of 2.9%.

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NZD/USD remains subdued below 0.5900 as market caution lifts US Dollar

  • NZD/USD weakens as the US Dollar rises amid cautious sentiment ahead of weekend USโ€“Iran talks.
  • Washington and Tehran are set to resume talks this weekend, with Trump expressing optimism about progress.
  • New Zealandโ€™s annual food inflation eased to 3.4% in March, lowest since February 2025, after 4.5% previously.

NZD/USD remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 0.5890 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) edges higher, supported by cautious market sentiment ahead of the upcoming meeting between the United States (US) and Iran scheduled for the weekend.

However, discussions between Washington and Tehran are anticipated to resume over the weekend, with US President Donald Trump adopting an optimistic stance on the likelihood that both nations could secure a permanent ceasefire before its expiration next week.

President Trump said on Thursday that he had held conversations with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He added that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to implement a 10-day ceasefire, which took effect at 5 PM ET.

In New Zealand, annual Food Inflation moderated to 3.4% in March from 4.5% previously, marking the first decline in three months and the lowest reading since February 2025. On a monthly basis, the Food Price Index declined by 0.6%, following a prior 0.1% decrease.

Meanwhile, UOB economist Ho Woei Chen evaluated Chinaโ€™s stronger Q1 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and its policy implications. Despite realย GDPย expanding by 5.0% YoY, the team maintains its 2026 growth projection at 4.7% amid external headwinds and subdued domestic demand. Robust economic activity alongside contained inflation diminishes the likelihood of near-term rate cuts, with only a modest 10-basis-point easing now expected in Q3 2026. Any shifts in Chinaโ€™s economicย outlookย could influence the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), given the close trade relationship between China and New Zealand.