The Indonesian rupiah hovered near IDR 18,050 per dollar on Friday, remaining under pressure as weak domestic fundamentals outweighed support from a softer greenback. The dollar index extended recent losses after reports that the U.S. and Iran would continue peace negotiations, easing safe-haven demand. Locally, sentiment remained fragile, with May retail sales posting the steepest annual drop in three years as higher non-subsidized fuel prices squeezed spending. Meanwhile, consumer confidence fell for a third straight month in June amid concerns over income, jobs, and future consumption. For the week, the currency was set for a third consecutive decline, down about 0.7% so far, reflecting fears that Indonesia could be downgraded to frontier-market status next year. Still, losses were partly cushioned by stabilizing oil prices, a modest rise in forex reserves, and government measures to bolster food supplies and prepare for El Niño, tempering worries over food inflation.
United States Dollar Index falls to three-week low amid signs of US-Iran war de-escalation
- The US Dollar Index falls for the third straight trading day, extending the decline to near the three-week low at 100.60.
- The US signals that it is still committed to the MoU with Iran, and technical talks are still on.
- Fed Chair Warsh unveils key members of five task forces.
The US Dollar (USD) extends its losing streak for the third trading day on Friday amid signs of de-escalation in the ongoing clash between the United States (US) and Iran.
In the Asian session, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.3% lower to near 100.60, revisiting the three-week low.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.22% | -0.27% | -0.57% | -0.19% | -0.31% | -0.55% | -0.40% | |
| EUR | 0.22% | -0.05% | -0.35% | 0.05% | -0.12% | -0.34% | -0.18% | |
| GBP | 0.27% | 0.05% | -0.33% | 0.08% | -0.08% | -0.28% | -0.14% | |
| JPY | 0.57% | 0.35% | 0.33% | 0.40% | 0.27% | 0.01% | 0.17% | |
| CAD | 0.19% | -0.05% | -0.08% | -0.40% | -0.14% | -0.37% | -0.21% | |
| AUD | 0.31% | 0.12% | 0.08% | -0.27% | 0.14% | -0.24% | -0.11% | |
| NZD | 0.55% | 0.34% | 0.28% | -0.01% | 0.37% | 0.24% | 0.14% | |
| CHF | 0.40% | 0.18% | 0.14% | -0.17% | 0.21% | 0.11% | -0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Earlier in the day, reports from the Times of Israel stated that a US official signaled that Washington is still committed to the memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran and technical talks are still on despite US President Donald Trump declaring that the MoU is over and the exchange of attacks between the two.
On Wednesday, US President Trump also said that Iran called for making a deal, but “I just don’t know if they’re worthy of making a deal”, CNBC reported.
Signs of US-Iran war de-escalation diminish the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar. However, higher oil prices due to renewed energy supply disruption fears have de-anchored inflation projections, which are likely to limit the US Dollar’s downside.
Technically, higher inflation expectations discourage Federal Reserve (Fed) officials from lowering interest rates.
On the monetary policy front, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has unveiled members of five task forces, as promised in the June policy announcement, which will be focused on communications, the balance sheet policy, improving the quality and timeliness of economic data, productivity and jobs and developing inflation frameworks.
Australian Dollar edges higher to near 0.6950 on RBA hawkish rhetoric
- AUD/USD edges higher to around 0.6950 in Friday’s Asian session.
- RBA’s Hunter reaffirmed the board will take necessary actions to bring inflation down to its target.
- Fed’s Williams said not looking for a sustained energy price increase.
The AUD/USD pair attracts some buyers to near 0.6950 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on hawkish rhetoric from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said on Wednesday that the board will act as needed to return inflation to its target, warning some tightening may be required if the oil shock lifts inflation expectations, per Reuters.
The Australian central bank has implemented three interest rate increases of 25 basis points (bps) so far this year, lifting the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.35%. Current ASX 30-day Interbank Cash Rate Futures indicated a minor 19% market expectation of a rate hike to 4.60% at the upcoming August meeting.
According to Federal Reserve (Fed) Minutes from June 16 to 17 meeting, the first under new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, showed many participants said its key rate would be unchanged from or slightly below its current level of 3.6% by the end of this year. But “many” also said that it would likely be higher by year-end.
New York Fed President John Williams said on Thursday that despite the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East, he was not looking for a sustained rise in energy prices over the remainder of the year.
Japanese Yen rallies against weaker USD amid looming intervention risks
- USD/JPY attracts sellers for the second straight day as intervention fears lift the JPY.
- The less hawkish FOMC Minutes weigh on the USD, contributing to the intraday fall.
- The wide US-Japan rate differential and Iran risks should limit losses for the major.
The USD/JPY pair meets with a heavy supply during the Asian session on Friday and weakens below the 162.00 mark as traders remain on high alert amid expectations of a potential government intervention to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY). Furthermore, some follow-through US Dollar (USD) selling turns out to be another factor exerting downward pressure on spot prices for the second straight day.
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, drops to a fresh weekly low in the wake of the less-hawkish FOMC Minutes, which revealed that policymakers were divided with regard to the direction of interest rates. That said, traders are still pricing in around a 65% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise borrowing costs in September. This, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties, could limit deeper losses for the safe-haven buck and offer some support to the USD/JPY pair.
In the latest developments, the US military unleashed a new wave of strikes against Iran earlier this week in retaliation for Iran’s attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by targeting American allies and bombing US military installations across Bahrain and Kuwait. Moreover, US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the memorandum of understanding with Iran aimed at ending the conflict in the Middle East was over. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and favors the USD bulls.
Meanwhile, investors remain worried about economic risks due to continued energy supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, as Japan relies on the Middle East for over 90% of its Crude Oil imports. Furthermore, borrowing costs in Japan remain significantly lower compared to other Western economies, including the US. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets on the JPY, warranting caution before confirming that the USD/JPY pair has topped out and positioning for further losses.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.13% | -0.16% | -0.39% | -0.09% | -0.06% | -0.38% | -0.24% | |
| EUR | 0.13% | -0.03% | -0.22% | 0.04% | 0.06% | -0.25% | -0.11% | |
| GBP | 0.16% | 0.03% | -0.20% | 0.07% | 0.08% | -0.22% | -0.10% | |
| JPY | 0.39% | 0.22% | 0.20% | 0.27% | 0.30% | -0.04% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | 0.09% | -0.04% | -0.07% | -0.27% | 0.02% | -0.30% | -0.17% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | -0.06% | -0.08% | -0.30% | -0.02% | -0.32% | -0.21% | |
| NZD | 0.38% | 0.25% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.30% | 0.32% | 0.12% | |
| CHF | 0.24% | 0.11% | 0.10% | -0.09% | 0.17% | 0.21% | -0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
New Zealand Dollar extends hawkish RBNZ-inspired rally; hits three-week high vs weaker USD
- NZD/USD builds on the hawkish RBNZ-inspired gains for the third straight day on Friday.
- The USD drops to a fresh weekly trough and provides an additional boost to spot prices.
- Mixed US-Iran signals do little to impress the USD bulls or hinder the pair’s momentum.
The NZD/USD pair gains strong follow-through positive traction for the third straight day and rallies to an over three-week top during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.5775-0.5780 region, up nearly 0.40% for the day, and remain on track to register strong gains for the second week in a row amid a combination of supporting factors.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to be underpinned by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) hawkish outlook, which, along with a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD), acts as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair. As was widely expected, the RBNZ raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50% following the conclusion of the June monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. The central bank also indicated that some further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely to be required to curb inflationary pressures.
In contrast, the Minutes from the June 16–17 FOMC meeting revealed on Wednesday that policymakers were divided over the direction of interest rates. The minutes further stated that many participants indicated the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year. The less hawkish outlook, in turn, drags the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to a fresh weekly low and contributes to the bid tone around the NZD/USD pair.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical risk premium resurfaced this week after the US military unleashed a new wave of strikes against Iran earlier this week in retaliation for Tehran’s attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by targeting American allies and bombing US military installations across Bahrain and Kuwait. The market anxiety, however, subsided after Trump on Thursday claimed that Iran had called to make a deal with the US, denting the USD’s safe-haven status and lending additional support to the NZD/USD pair.
Moving ahead, there isn’t any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Friday, leaving the USD at the mercy of comments from influential FOMC members. Apart from this, the market focus will be on further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, which might continue to infuse volatility in global financial markets and drive the USD. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop backs the case for a further appreciating move for the NZD/USD pair, which remains on track to register gains for the second straight week.
New Zealand Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies this week. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.09% | -0.66% | 0.19% | -0.30% | -0.23% | -1.29% | 0.13% | |
| EUR | 0.09% | -0.60% | 0.24% | -0.23% | -0.10% | -1.23% | 0.18% | |
| GBP | 0.66% | 0.60% | 0.74% | 0.36% | 0.50% | -0.63% | 0.77% | |
| JPY | -0.19% | -0.24% | -0.74% | -0.49% | -0.26% | -1.42% | -0.05% | |
| CAD | 0.30% | 0.23% | -0.36% | 0.49% | 0.20% | -0.94% | 0.41% | |
| AUD | 0.23% | 0.10% | -0.50% | 0.26% | -0.20% | -1.13% | 0.27% | |
| NZD | 1.29% | 1.23% | 0.63% | 1.42% | 0.94% | 1.13% | 1.41% | |
| CHF | -0.13% | -0.18% | -0.77% | 0.05% | -0.41% | -0.27% | -1.41% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
British Pound gains traction above 1.3400 as markets bet on BoE rate hikes
- GBP/USD gains ground to near 1.3430 in Friday’s Asian session.
- Andy Burnham is set to become the next UK Prime Minister on July 20.
- Iranian officials have reported multiple explosions in the country’s south, including near the Bushehr nuclear facility.
The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.3430 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The British Pound (GBP) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on the UK government leadership transition and growing expectations of further Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hikes.
Andy Burnham’s path to becoming the next UK prime minister looks certain after a vast majority of Labour MPs formally nominated him to be the next party leader. Bloomberg reported on Thursday that 322 of 403 Labour members of Parliament voted for Burnham at the end of the first day of the party’s leadership contest to replace Keir Starmer. Burnham is expected to formally become Prime Minister on July 20.
Traders increased bets on BoE interest rate hikes amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Markets are now fully pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) BoE rate hike by year-end, most likely in December, according to Reuters.
Renewed tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and cap the upside for the major pair. US forces struck several more locations in coastal Iran on Thursday, according to Iranian state media, though the US did not confirm carrying out the attacks. Iranian officials and state media have reported multiple explosions in the country’s south, including near the Bushehr nuclear facility.
Euro nudges higher above 1.1400 as traders ramp up their bets on ECB hikes
- EUR/USD trades with mild gains near 1.1430 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- ECB saw inflation rising despite nearly three expected hikes, accounts showed.
- US official said Washington remains committed to a resolution with Iran.
The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains around 1.1430 during the early Asian session on Friday, bolstered by a softer US Dollar (USD). The European Central Bank (ECB) is grappling with elevated core inflation, forcing traders to price in more aggressive tightening despite mixed guidance from ECB officials.
Accounts of the meeting showed on Thursday that the ECB policymakers gathering last month were presented with projections showing inflation staying above target into next year despite nearly three ECB interest rate hikes. The ECB raised rates at the June policy meeting, and traders expect it to do so twice more over the next year to contain the fallout from the Iran war on energy prices.
Traders raise their bets on ECB rate hikes again in recent days on signs that an agreement between the US and Iran to end the war is in jeopardy. This, in turn, provide some support to the shared currency.
Markets will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict. Any signs of rising tensions could boost a safe-haven currency and act as a headwind for the major pair. US official on Thursday signaled that it is still committed to the memorandum of understanding with Iran, even though US President Donald Trump’s declared earlier this week that the framework deal to end the Iran war was “over.”
Dollar Falls for Third Straight Session
The dollar index fell toward 100.5 on Friday, extending losses for a third straight session as reports that the US and Iran will continue peace negotiations despite a recent escalation in hostilities dampened safe-haven demand for the currency. Lower oil prices also helped ease inflation concerns and reduce expectations of aggressive policy tightening, although markets still largely anticipate at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said that, among the factors driving inflation in the US, he is most focused on demand fueled by artificial intelligence. Separately, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh unveiled the leadership of five task forces to review the US central bank’s approach to key areas of policymaking, signaling the potential for changes in how the Fed conducts monetary policy. The dollar weakened broadly on Friday, posting its largest declines against the Japanese yen and the New Zealand dollar.
