Currency Hedger No Comments

USD/CAD – Descending 20-day EMA supports more downside

  • USD/CAD trades cautiously around 1.3580 amid the US Dollar’s underperformance.
  • Investors await Fed speeches for fresh cues on the US interest rate outlook.
  • The BoC opens the door for interest rate hikes amid upside inflation risks.

The USD/CAD pair trades with caution near Thursday’s low at around 1.3580 during the late Asian trading session on Friday. The Loonie pair trades weakly as the US Dollar (USD) is broadly under pressure, following Japanese intervention in the forex markets.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is marginally higher to near 98.20, but is close to its 10-day low of 98.00.

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.25%-0.62%-1.43%-0.70%-0.82%-0.45%-0.59%
EUR0.25%-0.35%-1.25%-0.43%-0.55%-0.18%-0.32%
GBP0.62%0.35%-0.88%-0.07%-0.20%0.17%0.03%
JPY1.43%1.25%0.88%0.80%0.66%1.11%0.93%
CAD0.70%0.43%0.07%-0.80%-0.08%0.31%0.11%
AUD0.82%0.55%0.20%-0.66%0.08%0.38%0.24%
NZD0.45%0.18%-0.17%-1.11%-0.31%-0.38%-0.14%
CHF0.59%0.32%-0.03%-0.93%-0.11%-0.24%0.14%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

The next major trigger for the US Dollar will be commentaries from a slew of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials as the blackout period has ended after the monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

In the policy meeting, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, as expected, with an 8-4 majority. Four members dissented from the hold decision, of which three called for a move away from the easing bias.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) outperforms as the Bank of Canada (BoC) warned on Wednesday that interest rates could rise, with energy prices remaining higher.

USD/CAD technical analysis

USD/CAD trades close to Thursday’s low at around 1.3580 at the press time. The pair holds a bearish near-term bias as spot remains capped beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3698 and a Fibonacci-heavy resistance band starting at the 61.8% retracement near 1.3667.

A shift in the Relative Strength Index (14) below 40.00 warrants fresh downside momentum with no oversold signals in sight.

On the downside, the pair could slide towards the March 9 low of 1.3525 and the swing low at 1.3482 if it fails to hold the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3585.

On the topside, a recovery would first face resistance at the 61.8% retracement at 1.3667, followed by the 20-day EMA at 1.3698 and the 50% retracement near 1.3725; only a sustained break above this cluster would ease the current bearish tone and open the way toward higher retracement barriers at 1.3782 and 1.3853.

Currency Hedger No Comments

USD/CHF remains above 0.7800 as US Dollar gains on risk-off mood

  • USD/CHF rises as the US Dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand after Trump vowed to maintain the Iran port blockade.
  • US Core PCE rose 3.2% YoY, up from 3% in February and in line with forecasts.
  • Thursday’s ZEW Swiss Expectations rose to -30.3 in April from -35.0, recovering from a six-month low.

USD/CHF inches higher after posting 1.25% losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7820 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair gains ground as the safe-haven demand supports the US Dollar (USD) against its major peers.

Market sentiment remains cautious after Bloomberg reported on Thursday that US President Donald Trump stated he would continue the naval blockade of Iranian ports, amid concerns that the strategically important Strait of Hormuz may not reopen in the near term. Trump also criticized congressional efforts aimed at restricting his war powers, including a recent Senate proposal that was rejected earlier in the day.

On Thursday, data showed that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose to 3.5% in March from 2.8% in February, in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, the index increased by 0.7%. The core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge excluding volatile food and energy components, advanced 3.2% YoY, following a 3% rise in February and matching analysts’ forecasts.

Meanwhile, preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized expanded by 2.0% in Q1 2026, falling short of the 2.3% market expectation but improving from the previous 0.5% growth.

On the Swiss side, the KOF Leading Indicator rose to 97.9 in April 2026 from 95.6 in March, beating the 95.9 forecast on gains in manufacturing, services, and consumption, data showed on Thursday.

Earlier this week, the ZEW Swiss Survey Expectations improved to -30.3 in April from -35.0 in March, a six-month low. More than half of respondents expect the outlook to remain stable over the next six months, while slightly over a third anticipate deterioration.

Currency Hedger No Comments

CAD sits near its highest level since March 11 vs USD amid elevated Oil prices

  • USD/CAD remains depressed as elevated Crude Oil prices continue to underpin the Loonie.
  • The Fed’s hawkish tilt and the US-Iran stalemate support the USD, limiting losses for the pair.
  • Spot prices seem poised to post losses for the fourth week as traders look to the US ISM PMI.

The USD/CAD pair enters a bearish consolidation phase after touching a fresh low since March 11 during the Asian session on Friday, and currently trades around the 1.3575 region. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register losses for the fourth straight week.

Crude Oil prices stall the previous day’s retracement slide from a nearly four-week top amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties due to stalled US-Iran peace talks. In fact, US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the blockade, while postponing nuclear issues to a later stage. Trump further said that he’s going to keep Iran under a naval blockade until the regime agrees to a deal that addresses US concerns about its nuclear program.

Moreover, reports suggest that the US is considering new military strikes on Iran, which acts as a tailwind for the black liquid. This, in turn, is seen underpinning the commodity-linked Loonie and capping the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) recovers slightly following the overnight slump to a one-and-a-half week low amid the US-Iran stalemate and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish tilt. This offers some support to the currency pair and helps limit the downside.

The Fed’s decision on Wednesday to hold its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% saw three policymakers voting against the accommodative tone in the policy statement. Adding to this, the Advance US GDP report released on Thursday pointed to continued economic resilience, while the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index showed that inflation accelerated in March. The data reaffirms bets that the Fed could keep rates unchanged and supports the USD.

Traders, however, are still pricing in a small possibility that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by the end of this year. The expectations, in turn, hold the USD bulls on the back foot, warranting some caution before positioning for any meaningful recovery for the USD/CAD pair. Traders now look forward to the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for some impetus heading into the weekend.

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/USD Price Holds onto gains near 1.1730

  • EUR/USD trades firmly near 1.1735 amid weakness in the US Dollar.
  • Investors await the ECB commentaries and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for April.
  • The US GDP growth remained at 2% on an annualized basis in the first quarter of the year.

The EUR/USD pair clings to Thursday’s gains near 1.1735 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The major currency pair reflects strength as the US Dollar (USD) holds onto the previous day’s losses, which were driven by suspected Japan’s intervention in forex markets.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades weakly near Thursday’s low around 98.00.

On Thursday, the US preliminary Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data arrived weaker than projected. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2%, slower than 2.3% estimates.

Meanwhile, investors await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for April, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to arrive higher at 53.0 from the previous reading of 52.7.

During the Asian trade, the Euro (EUR) trades broadly firm, with investors awaiting commentaries from a slew of European Central Bank (ECB) officials, following the completion of the so-called quiet period after the monetary policy announcement on Thursday.

USD/JPY technical analysis

EUR/USD trades firmly at around 1.1735, holding a mildly bullish bias as it sits above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1702 and between key Fibonacci retracement levels of the latest swing. The pair is hovering just under the 50.0% retracement at 1.1745, suggesting topside progress is slowing but not yet reversing, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55 hints at constructive, yet not overextended, upside momentum.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1745, followed by the 61.8% level at 1.1825, with further barriers at 1.1938 and 1.2082. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-period EMA at 1.1702, ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1666; a deeper pullback would expose the 23.6% retracement at 1.1567, with the cycle low near 1.1408 acting as a more distant structural floor.

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/JPY remains stronger near 184.50 following Tokyo inflation data

  • EUR/JPY rises as the Japanese Yen weakens after mixed Tokyo inflation data.
  • Tokyo CPI rose 1.5% YoY in April; core CPI also 1.5%, missing the 1.8% forecast.
  • The ECB kept the deposit rate at 2% despite rising Eurozone inflation driven by the Iran conflict.

EUR/JPY gains ground after registering 1.88% losses in the previous day, trading around 184.40 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross advances as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens following mixed Tokyo inflation data.

Japan’s Statistics Bureau reported Friday that Tokyo’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.5% year-over-year (YoY) in April, up from 1.4% prior. Core CPI (excluding fresh food) also increased 1.5% YoY, missing the 1.8% forecast and down from 1.7% previously. Meanwhile, CPI excluding fresh food and energy eased to 1.5% from 1.7%.

The JPY found some support against major peers after suspected intervention by Tokyo, which came hours after officials issued a “final” warning against excessive currency selling. Although the Finance Ministry has not confirmed action, the sharp market move led traders to attribute it to government support. Investors are now weighing the chances of further intervention, as authorities often act in multiple rounds.

Japan’s top FX official, Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura, declined to comment on intervention or crude oil futures, but noted ongoing close communication with the US on currency matters.

The Euro (EUR) also gains support after the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged at its April meeting. The governing council kept the deposit rate at 2% despite rising Eurozone inflation amid the Iran conflict, stating that while the outlook remains broadly unchanged, upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have increased.

Currency Hedger No Comments

GBP/JPY jumps to near 214.00 as Yen gives back some Japan intervention-led gains

  • GBP/JPY rises to near 214.00 as the Japanese Yen surrenders some gains driven by Japan’s intervention.
  • Tokyo CPI ex. Fresh Food growth cooled down to 1.5% YoY in April.
  • BoE’s Bailey clarifies that the central bank will act if it finds there might be second-round effects of inflation.

The GBP/JPY pair is up 0.35% at around 214.00 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The pair trades higher as the Japanese Yen (JPY) surrenders a majority of its Thursday’s gains, which were driven by Japan’s intervention in forex markets to counter one-way speculative moves against the domestic currency.

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.02%0.03%0.35%0.00%0.13%0.22%0.03%
EUR-0.02%0.00%0.31%-0.04%0.11%0.18%0.00%
GBP-0.03%-0.00%0.30%-0.03%0.09%0.17%0.02%
JPY-0.35%-0.31%-0.30%-0.33%-0.22%-0.16%-0.31%
CAD-0.01%0.04%0.03%0.33%0.11%0.20%0.04%
AUD-0.13%-0.11%-0.09%0.22%-0.11%0.08%-0.06%
NZD-0.22%-0.18%-0.17%0.16%-0.20%-0.08%-0.15%
CHF-0.03%-0.00%-0.02%0.31%-0.04%0.06%0.15%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

According to a report from Reuters, Japan intervened to prop up the JPY against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, its first official currency action in nearly two years.

Japan Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama also said on Thursday that they are moving closer to taking decisive action in the foreign exchange markets.

Meanwhile, Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) ex. Fresh Food data for April has come in lower than expected. The underlying inflation growth cooled down to 1.5% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 1.7% in March, while it was expected to arrive higher at 1.8%.

In the Asian trade, the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades higher against its major currency peers, except the Canadian Dollar (CAD), as the Bank of England (BoE) has opened the room for an interest rate hike if the energy supply shock continues to persist.

On Thursday, the BoE left interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, as expected, and Governor Andrew Bailey warned that second-round effects of energy crisis-led inflation could arise, but the central bank would not wait and act early. “It would be a mistake to wait to see the second-round effects before acting because then it would be too late,” Bailey said in the press conference, Reuters reported.

Currency Hedger No Comments

AUD/JPY Price Gains ground, maintaining bullish bias above 100-day EMA

  • AUD/JPY edges higher to around 113.10 in Friday’s early European session. 
  • The cross keeps a positive tone above the 100-day EMA, with the RSI pointing to neutral but slightly positive momentum. 
  • The immediate resistance level emerges at 113.30; the initial support level to watch is 111.10. 

The AUD/JPY cross holds positive ground near 113.10 during the early European session on Friday. The cross remains firm after pulling back from a multi-decade high of 114.72. However, the potential upside for AUD/JPY might be limited amid intervention fears. 

Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, on Friday declined to confirm the Japanese Yen (JPY) intervention directly but delivered a pointed warning to speculators, noting that Japan’s Golden Week holidays have just started and that there is no change to his view that market moves remain speculative in nature. 

On the other hand, a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could underpin the Aussie. Australian headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation climbed to 4.6% YoY in March, primarily due to fuel price shocks linked to ongoing Middle East conflicts. While the figure was slightly below the 4.7% forecast, it remains well above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range, keeping pressure on the central bank to hike rates. 

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY keeps a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the lower Bollinger Band. Price is testing the Bollinger 20-day simple moving average (SMA) pivot at 113.30, suggesting ongoing upside interest after the recent pullback, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 points to neutral but slightly positive momentum rather than overbought conditions.

On the topside, a sustained break above the Bollinger mid-line at 113.30 would open the way toward the April 28 high of 114.72, en route to the upper Bollinger Band of 115.45. On the downside, initial demand is seen at the lower Bollinger Band near 111.10, ahead of stronger, medium-term support at the 100-day EMA around 109.30, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge if a deeper correction unfolds.