Forecasting The Upcoming Week – NFP, US-Iran peace talks in focus
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a two-week low near the 98.00 price zone on Friday, extending the losses seen the previous day and ending a week in which the world’s most important central banks confirmed a hawkish shift due to rising inflation pressures. Next week, traders’ attention will remain focused on any development regarding potential negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as a streak of US employment data that will culminate with Nonfarm Payrolls.
The economic calendar was light on Friday as many markets around the world were closed due to the Labor Day holiday. Still, in the US, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 52.7, below the expected 53.
In the Middle East, the Islamic Republic of Iran submitted its latest negotiating proposal to Pakistan, acting as the mediator in talks with the United States. It was not immediately clear what was included in the new proposal, but Trump said that he can’t agree to the current demands from Tehran: “Iran wants to make a deal, but I’m not satisfied,” he said.
Earlier in the day, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, discussed the latest initiatives of the Islamic Republic to end the war during phone calls with counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Iraq, and Azerbaijan, according to a ministry statement.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.20% | -0.12% | 0.09% | -0.03% | -0.25% | -0.15% | -0.27% | |
| EUR | 0.20% | 0.07% | 0.28% | 0.15% | -0.04% | 0.03% | -0.07% | |
| GBP | 0.12% | -0.07% | 0.21% | 0.09% | -0.12% | -0.04% | -0.12% | |
| JPY | -0.09% | -0.28% | -0.21% | -0.12% | -0.34% | -0.28% | -0.36% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | -0.15% | -0.09% | 0.12% | -0.23% | -0.14% | -0.22% | |
| AUD | 0.25% | 0.04% | 0.12% | 0.34% | 0.23% | 0.08% | 0.00% | |
| NZD | 0.15% | -0.03% | 0.04% | 0.28% | 0.14% | -0.08% | -0.09% | |
| CHF | 0.27% | 0.07% | 0.12% | 0.36% | 0.22% | 0.00% | 0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD rose to an almost two-week high near the 1.1780 level. The pair keeps the rally going for a second straight day after the European Central Bank (ECB) left rates unchanged in Thursday’s meeting. US President Donald Trump announced on Friday that tariffs on the European Union’s cars and trucks would rise to 25% from the current 15%, reviving trade war fears.
GBP/USD rose to the 1.3630 price region. The rise comes as investors move away from the US Dollar (USD) amid an improved risk mood after Iran offered to reach out to the US through Pakistan, aiming to finalize the peace deal once and for all.
USD/JPY steadied after dropping from 160.00 to 156.60 following the Japanese government’s intervention on Thursday. Data released on Friday showed the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April ex Fresh Food at 1.9%, down from last month’s 2.3%. The headline measure was released at 1.5%, up slightly from last month’s 1.4%.
AUD/USD ticked up towards the 0.7220 price zone as traders adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision scheduled for next Tuesday. Earlier in the day, the Producer Price Index (PPI) was at 3%, below last month’s 3.5%.
Gold trades broadly unchanged at the $4,630 level as investors focus on riskier positions over the week’s end.
WTI West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell near the $98.50 per barrel amid Iran’s Pakistan-driven US peace deal.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Monday, May 4:
- Eurogroup Meeting
- ECB Cipollone speaks
- Fed Williams speaks
- ECB Nagel speaks
Tuesday, May 5:
- RBA Press Conference
- ECB De Guindos speaks
- ECB President Lagarde speaks
- Fed Bowman speaks
- ECB Lane speaks
- Fed Barr speaks
Wednesday, May 6:
- ECB Lane speaks
- ECB Cipollone speaks
- Fed Musalem speaks
- Fed Goolsbee speaks
- Fed Hammack speaks
Thursday, May 7:
- ECB De Guindos speaks
- ECB Elderson speaks
- ECB Lane speaks
- ECB Schnabel speaks
- Fed Hammack speaks
- Fed Williams speaks
Friday, May 8:
- ECB President Lagarde speaks
- ECB De Guindos speaks
- Fed Cook speaks
- ECB Cipollone speaks
- ECB Schnabel speaks
- ECB Nagel speaks
- Fed Bowman speaks
- Fed Goolsbee speaks
- Fed Waller speaks
Central banks’ meetings and upcoming data releases to shape markets
Monday, May 4:
- Australian TD-MI Inflation Gauge April YoY
- Australian Building Permits March MoM
- Germany, France, Italy, Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI April
- Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence May
- US Factory Orders March MoM
- Australian S&P PMIs April
Tuesday, May 5:
- Australian RBA Interest Rate Decision
- Australian RBA Monetary Policy Statement
- Australian RBA Rate Statement
- Chinese Consumer Price Index April MoM YoY
- US S&P PMIS April
- US ISM Services PMIS
- US JOLTS Job Openings March
- US New Home Sales February and March MoM
- New Zealand Employment data
Wednesday, May 6:
- Chinese Caixin Services PMI April
- Germany, France, Italy, Eurozone HCOB Services PMI April
- Eurozone Producer Price Index March MoM YoY
- US ADP Employment Change April
- Canadian Ivey PMI April
- Japanese Labor Cash Earnings March YoY
- Japanese BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Thursday, May 7:
- Australian Trade Balance
- Germany Factory Orders March MoM YoY
- Eurozone Retail Sales March MoM YoY
- US Challenger Job Cuts April
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Nonfarm Productivity Q1 Prel
- US Unit Labor Costs Q1 Prel
Friday, May 8:
- Germany Industrial Production March MoM YoY
- Eurozone Trade Balance March
- Canadian Employment data
- US NFP report
EUR/USD trims gains as fresh Trump tariff threats, Iran woes lift USD
- Trump threatens to raise EU auto tariffs to 25% from 15%, weighing on the EUR/USD pair.
- Trump says he isn’t happy about the latest proposal sent by Tehran, adding uncertainty and fueling safe-haven demand for the USD.
- USD rebounds from two-week lows amid intensifying geopolitical risks.
The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.1730 level on Friday’s late American session, trimming almost all its intraday gains, after United States (US) President Donald Trump threatened to raise the tariff rate on European Union (EU) cars and trucks from 15% to 25% and said he isn’t happy with the latest proposal sent by Iran to end the war.
Iran passed a peace talks offer through Pakistan to try and strike a deal with the US, though the details and demands from Tehran remain unknown. US President Trump claimed that “we made strides in talks with Iran, but I’m not sure we’re going to get to a deal,” and added that he is not satisfied with the current proposal because Iran is asking for things “he is not comfortable agreeing with”.
When asked about potential missile strikes on Iran, US President Trump said: “Why would I tell you that?”, adding to the uncertainty. The heightened uncertainty over the fate of the latest proposal has supported the US Dollar (USD) as a safe haven, whichhas recovered from a two-week low.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the four-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1730, hovering between nearby moving averages and maintaining a broadly neutral bias. The pair holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1713, which lends modest downside support, but it remains capped by the 100-period SMA at 1.1736 and the horizontal barrier at 1.1744. The Relative Strength Index around 53 hints at mildly positive momentum, yet the proximity of overhead levels suggests limited upside unless buyers can force a sustained break higher.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-period SMA at 1.1736, followed by the horizontal hurdle at 1.1744. A clearance of these levels would open the way toward 1.1757 and then 1.1785. On the downside, initial support is seen at the nearby horizontal floor at 1.1729, with the 20-period SMA at 1.1713 reinforcing the underlying demand area. A break below this latter level would expose a deeper corrective phase in the short term.
USD/CAD steadies as weekly slide extends on Loonie strength
- Iran ceasefire talks stalled over the weekend, with the US blockade and the Strait of Hormuz closure both in place.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI held at 52.7 in April, missing the 53.0 consensus, while the Prices Paid index surged to 84.6.
- Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI jumped to 53.3 in April from 50.0 in March, returning the sector to expansion.
USD/CAD edged higher by less than 0.1% on Friday, recovering from an early-session low near 1.3560 to trade around 1.3590. The pair has shed roughly 0.6% on the week after rolling over from the 1.3700 area mid-week, and momentum has appeared sluggish close to 1.3580 as a cluster of small-bodied candles points to indecision.
The US-Iran conflict and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant drivers, keeping crude oil prices elevated and offering tailwinds to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar. Ceasefire talks stalled over the weekend with both sides hardening their positions, and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports stays in place despite intermittent administration claims of progress that markets have largely discounted.
The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) held at 52.7 in April, narrowly missing the 53.0 consensus, while the Employment Index slumped to 46.4 and the Prices Paid component surged to 84.6, the highest reading in over four years. Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI jumped to 53.3 from 50.0 in March, returning the sector to expansion. Markets now look ahead to next Friday’s heavy calendar, headlined by US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), with consensus pointing to 73K versus 178K previously, and Canadian employment data with the unemployment rate seen unchanged at 6.7%.
USD/CAD 5-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the five-minute chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3587, hovering just above the daily open at 1.3580, which now acts as immediate intraday support. The pair has lost upside momentum after earlier gains, while the downward sloping resistance trend line drawn from 1.3680 continues to cap the broader recovery potential. The latest Stochastic RSI reading has retreated toward lower levels, hinting at fading bullish pressure and keeping the near-term tone broadly neutral while price oscillates around the opening level.
On the downside, a clear break back below the 1.3580 daily open would expose softer intraday levels and suggest that sellers are regaining control in the very short term. On the topside, the next meaningful barrier is the descending resistance line coming from 1.3680, and only a sustained move toward that region and a subsequent break higher would start to undermine the broader corrective bias and open the way for a more convincing upside extension.
In the one-hour chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3589, holding a mildly bearish near-term tone as it remains capped by a downward-sloping trend-line resistance coming in around 1.3680. The lack of nearby moving averages in the dataset keeps the focus on this structural barrier, while the Stochastic RSI has pushed into elevated territory above 70 recently, hinting that upside attempts could face exhaustion below the mentioned trend line.
On the topside, the immediate obstacle is the descending trend-line resistance at 1.3680, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure and open the way to a stronger recovery. With no clearly defined intraday supports in the provided data, any pullback from current levels would likely see traders looking to prior session lows and intraday swing points below 1.3589 for initial demand, while an inability to challenge 1.3680 would keep the pair vulnerable to further downside probing.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Remains bullish despite hovering around 0.7200
- AUD/USD trades near range highs within 0.7100–0.7200 consolidation band.
- RSI above 50 supports bullish momentum and potential breakout scenario.
- Break above 0.7250 targets 0.7282 and 0.7300 resistance levels.
AUD/USD holds to minimal gains of 0.10% late in the North American session, yet poised to finish the week up 0.84%. At the time of writing, the pair trades above 0.7200 as the ‘bullish engulfing’ chart pattern caps the Aussie on the downside.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD trades near the top of a 100-pip consolidation range between 0.7100 and 0.7200, with traders awaiting fresh catalysts. Momentum is bullish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting above its neutral level.
On the upside, the first resistance for AUD/USD is the psychological 0.7250 level. If cleared, the next stop would be the June 3, 2022, high of 0.7282 ahead of the 0.7300 area. The next area of interest would be on April 5, 2022, at 0.7661
Conversely, if AUD/USD ends the day below 0.7200, it could open the door for testing the 20-day SMA at 0.7121. Below this level is 0.7100 ─the bottom of the 100-pip range─, followed by the 50-day SMA at 0.7059
AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Buyers defend 100-day SMA as momentum weakens
- GBP/JPY rebounds modestly after earlier sell-off likely triggered by suspected intervention by Japanese authorities.
- Technically, the cross holds a bullish bias above key moving averages, though weakening momentum signals fading upside strength.
- The 100-day SMA offers immediate support, while 213.50 acts as the first upside hurdle.
GBP/JPY stages a modest rebound on Friday after coming under selling pressure earlier in the day amid suspected intervention by Tokyo for a second straight day to curb excessive weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY). At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 213.42, recovering from an intraday low of 211.81 and poised to end the week in negative territory for the first time in four weeks.
However, there has been no official confirmation of intervention by Japanese authorities so far, though officials issued a “final” warning on Thursday after USD/JPY briefly moved past the 160 level, a threshold that has previously triggered action. This move spilled across Yen crosses, with GBP/JPY posting a sharp pullback from a multi-year high near 216.60 to around 210.45 the previous day.
Although underlying fundamentals, including wide interest rate differentials between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and other major central banks, continue to weigh on the Yen, the latest leg lower suggests near-term downside pressure on the cross as momentum indicators turn negative.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, GBP/JPY holds a constructive bias while consolidating above its key trend filters. The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-day SMA sit comfortably below the spot, suggesting underlying demand despite the recent pullback.
However, momentum has cooled, with the Relative Strength Index easing toward the mid-40s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slipping into negative territory, hinting that upside attempts may lack follow-through in the very near term.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the horizontal barrier near 214.50, where a daily close above would reopen the path toward the recent peak of 216.60 and signal renewed bullish impulse.
On the downside, initial support is provided by the 100-day SMA at 211.89, with a break there exposing deeper retracement toward the 200-day SMA at 206.74, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader uptrend.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.19% | -0.14% | 0.02% | -0.19% | -0.06% | 0.12% | -0.11% | |
| EUR | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.18% | -0.01% | 0.15% | 0.30% | 0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.14% | -0.04% | 0.15% | -0.04% | 0.09% | 0.26% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | -0.18% | -0.15% | -0.20% | -0.08% | 0.07% | -0.12% | |
| CAD | 0.19% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.20% | 0.12% | 0.29% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | -0.15% | -0.09% | 0.08% | -0.12% | 0.16% | -0.02% | |
| NZD | -0.12% | -0.30% | -0.26% | -0.07% | -0.29% | -0.16% | -0.20% | |
| CHF | 0.11% | -0.08% | -0.06% | 0.12% | -0.10% | 0.02% | 0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
AUD/USD holds steady near recent highs ahead of expected RBA rate hike
- AUD/USD trades near 0.7200, holding steady despite volatility linked to geopolitical risks.
- Investors largely expect a rate hike from the Australian central bank next week.
- The US Dollar remains broadly under pressure, limiting downside in the pair.
AUD/USD trades around 0.7200 on Friday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day and holding near recent highs, as markets adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision scheduled for Tuesday.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains slightly supported against its major peers, with investors expecting this key event. According to a Reuters poll, a strong majority of economists expect a 25 basis point rate hike, which would bring the policy rate to 4.35%. These expectations are supported by persistent inflationary pressures in Australia, with the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming in at 4.6% YoY in March, still well above the central bank’s target.
Market participants will also closely watch Governor Michele Bullock’s comments for further guidance on the policy outlook, particularly as energy-related risks linked to tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz could continue to fuel inflationary pressures.
At the same time, the US Dollar (USD) is struggling to gain traction despite a geopolitical backdrop that usually supports safe-haven demand. Markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates unchanged through the end of the year, although some officials, including Neel Kashkari, have highlighted the possibility of further hikes in the event of a significant inflationary shock driven by energy prices.
Geopolitical tensions still provide intermittent support to the Greenback, particularly following reports that the US administration is considering military options regarding Iran. Meanwhile, diplomatic developments suggesting that Tehran has submitted a new proposal to the United States (US) on Thursday have temporarily weighed on the US Dollar.
Investors now turn their attention to the release of the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) later in the day, a key indicator for assessing economic momentum.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.25% | -0.22% | -0.02% | -0.14% | -0.03% | 0.15% | -0.20% | |
| EUR | 0.25% | 0.02% | 0.22% | 0.08% | 0.22% | 0.38% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.22% | -0.02% | 0.19% | 0.08% | 0.19% | 0.36% | 0.05% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | -0.22% | -0.19% | -0.11% | -0.01% | 0.14% | -0.16% | |
| CAD | 0.14% | -0.08% | -0.08% | 0.11% | 0.10% | 0.28% | -0.03% | |
| AUD | 0.03% | -0.22% | -0.19% | 0.00% | -0.10% | 0.16% | -0.12% | |
| NZD | -0.15% | -0.38% | -0.36% | -0.14% | -0.28% | -0.16% | -0.31% | |
| CHF | 0.20% | -0.05% | -0.05% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.12% | 0.31% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Japanese Yen gives back gains against US Dollar, ISM PMI data eyed
- Japanese Yen falls back against the US Dollar, with the USD/JPY pair rebounding to near 156.55.
- Japan’s FM Katayama warned of possible intervention on Thursday.
- The Fed is largely expected to keep interest rates at their current levels by the year-end.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) gives up gains recorded in the early European trade against the US Dollar (USD) during the early North American trading session on Friday. The USD/JPY pair rebounds to near 156.55 after sliding to around 155.50, but is still marginally down.
In the early European session, a sudden spike was observed in the Japanese Yen, which was expected to be due to possible Japanese intervention in forex markets. However, there had been no official announcement regarding the same.
A stealth intervention by Japan was highly anticipated as Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that they are moving closer to taking decisive action in the foreign exchange markets.
Meanwhile, the upside in the USD/JPY pair is expected to be limited as the US Dollar (USD) is broadly underperforming despite expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates for the entire year.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.16% | -0.08% | -0.05% | -0.11% | 0.07% | 0.27% | -0.13% | |
| EUR | 0.16% | 0.08% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.25% | 0.42% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.08% | -0.08% | 0.02% | -0.03% | 0.15% | 0.32% | -0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | -0.11% | -0.02% | -0.06% | 0.12% | 0.27% | -0.07% | |
| CAD | 0.11% | -0.03% | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.17% | 0.36% | 0.00% | |
| AUD | -0.07% | -0.25% | -0.15% | -0.12% | -0.17% | 0.18% | -0.16% | |
| NZD | -0.27% | -0.42% | -0.32% | -0.27% | -0.36% | -0.18% | -0.36% | |
| CHF | 0.13% | -0.03% | 0.02% | 0.07% | -0.00% | 0.16% | 0.36% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in the current range of 3.50%-3.75% by the year end is 83.6%.
In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to come in higher at 53.0 from 52.7 in March.
