ING’s Chris Turner notes Sterling has held up even as markets scale back Bank of England tightening expectations to just one 25bp hike this year, while ING expects no change in rates. Political scrutiny of Prime Minister Keir Starmer could weigh on sentiment. ING warns GBP/USD may surrender recent gains, eyeing 1.3380/1.3400 as an initial downside target.
Sterling resilience faces policy and politics
“Sterling has been performing reasonably well despite the market removing a lot of the expected Bank of England tightening this year. The market still prices one 25bp hike this year, while our team sees unchanged rates. That hike may not be priced out until oil prices drop, however.”
“There is also the small matter of politics in the UK. Prime Minister Keir Starmer will today make a statement in parliament to potentially correct the record on the approval process for the former UK ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson.”
“This will be a tough session for PM Starmer and one which will extend into tomorrow, when the top civil servant involved in the approval process also appears at a parliamentary hearing.”
“GBP/USD could well hand back a big chunk of recent gains this week, with a first target being around the 1.3380/3400 area.”
HSBC Asset Management notes that April’s recovery in risk appetite has coincided with a sharp fall in the US Dollar, leaving year-to-date performance broadly flat and in line with the longer-term dollar-down trend. The bank argues that recent volatility episodes suggest only muted Dollar upside, consistent with a regime shift linked to de-dollarisation and concerns over US fiscal and institutional dynamics.
Dollar-down regime and volatility dynamics
“April’s recovery in risk appetite has coincided with a big drop in the US dollar. This leaves year-to-date performance essentially flat, maintaining the longer-term “dollar-down” trend.”
“Given ongoing geopolitical and macro uncertainty, there is a strong chance that market volatility will pick up again. However, March’s market action suggests that any resulting boost to the dollar could be fairly subdued.”
“Indeed, the trend over the past couple of years indicates that the dollar remains relatively static during episodes of volatility. This represents a major regime shift.”
“It may reflect gradual de-dollarisation, mounting concerns over US public finances and institutional integrity, and a growing belief that the Fed is hamstrung in responding to inflation shocks – a stark contrast to its more aggressive stance in 2022.”
“With the broadening out narrative somewhat dependent on sustained dollar weakness, recent market action proves that this scenario remains plausible in 2026.”
USD/CAD hovers near 1.3700 after rebounding from the monthly low around 1.3650 reached on Friday.
Geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran support safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
Investors await Canada’s March inflation data, which could influence monetary policy expectations.
USD/CAD trades around 1.3690 on Monday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, after rebounding from the monthly low near 1.3650 reached on Friday. The recovery remains limited as investors balance demand for the US Dollar (USD) with support for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) from rising Oil prices.
The US Dollar is benefiting from increased safe-haven demand amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Iran indicated that no new round of negotiations with the United States (US) is planned, accusing Washington of maintaining excessive pressure and violating the ceasefire through the continuation of its maritime blockade. These developments have revived risk aversion and supported the Greenback.
In this context, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, edges higher around 98.30. Meanwhile, several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have warned about the economic risks associated with a prolonged war in the Middle East, particularly through persistently higher energy prices that could fuel inflation.
However, gains in USD/CAD remain capped by rising Oil prices, a factor that typically supports the Canadian Dollar. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil is up 4.06% on Monday, trading around $87.30 at the time of press, supported by concerns over energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz following Iranian threats against commercial vessels.
Market attention now turns to the release of Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, which is due later in the day. Economists expect monthly inflation to accelerate to 1.1%, after 0.5% in February, while annual inflation could rise to 2.5%. Higher energy costs largely drive the expected increase.
These figures could complicate the outlook for the Bank of Canada (BoC). If inflation accelerates sharply, markets could revive expectations of monetary tightening, even as Canada’s economic growth remains fragile.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.03%
0.11%
0.21%
-0.01%
0.23%
0.10%
-0.00%
EUR
-0.03%
0.09%
0.13%
-0.06%
0.19%
0.10%
-0.05%
GBP
-0.11%
-0.09%
0.04%
-0.13%
0.10%
-0.01%
-0.15%
JPY
-0.21%
-0.13%
-0.04%
-0.17%
0.05%
-0.10%
-0.19%
CAD
0.01%
0.06%
0.13%
0.17%
0.23%
0.08%
-0.02%
AUD
-0.23%
-0.19%
-0.10%
-0.05%
-0.23%
-0.13%
-0.24%
NZD
-0.10%
-0.10%
0.00%
0.10%
-0.08%
0.13%
-0.11%
CHF
0.00%
0.05%
0.15%
0.19%
0.02%
0.24%
0.11%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Euro appreciates against a weaker Pound as pressure on UK Prime Minister Starmer grows.
Markets opened the week in a cautious tone with the US-Iran peace process on tenterhooks.
German PPI rose 2.5% in March, its strongest reading since August 2022.
The Euro (EUR) advances on Monday against a somewhat weaker British Pound (GBP), as the UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, heads to the House of Commons to answer questions about former US ambassador Peter Mandelson’s vetting process.
Lord Mandelson’s appointment caused a scandal last year, due to his ties with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Opposition parties are blaming Starmer for failing the security vetting for the position and calling on him to resign for misleading parliament on previous statements related to the appointment.
Cautious markets with the US-Iran peace process teetering
The market, meanwhile, remains cautious, with most currencies trading within previous ranges as the US and Iran exchange threats, with the second round of peace talks in question. The US has seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian authorities said that they might not attend the peace talks scheduled for next Tuesday due to US violations of the ceasefire.
In Europe, German Producer Prices Index (PPI) data revealed that inflation at factory gates jumped 2.5% in March, its highest monthly reading in nearly four years, confirming the inflationary impact of the war in the Middle East. Year-on-year, the PPI contracted 0.2% following a 3.3% drop in February.
In the UK, the economic calendar is thin on Monday, with the focus on February’s employment report due on Tuesday. Jobless claimants are expected to have eased to a 21.4K increase, from 24.7K in January, while the Unemployment rate is seen steady at 5.2%, and wage inflation is easing somewhat. This will provide the Bank of England with some margin to keep interest rates on hold for some time.
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that in the short term EUR/USD gains are capped as markets may be overestimating the European Central Bank’s (ECB) reaction to the latest inflation shock. She notes the Euro (EUR) and Pound (GBP) have held up better than in 2022 thanks to expectations of quicker tightening. Over the longer term, she highlights greater inflation and policy risks for the US Dollar (USD) versus the Euro.
Short-term cap, longer-term Dollar risk
“How will the fx markets develop in this environment? I think it makes sense to distinguish between the short and the longer term. In the short term – and we have already seen this to some extent – the focus is likely to be very much on the immediate reactions of the central banks.”
“This time things look a little different. The euro, and alongside it the British pound, are holding up fairly well against the US dollar. This is probably because markets trust both the ECB and the Bank of England to have learned from the mistakes of four years ago and to react early to inflation risks.”
“We have already expressed our doubts about market expectations for the ECB on several occasions, which is why we see the further upside potential in EUR/USD as limited. But that is only the short-term view. In the longer term, the pendulum could swing back again.”
“Therefore, in the longer term, the wheat is likely to be separated from the chaff, and only those currencies will prove robust where inflation falls back towards the 2% target more quickly. We see substantial risks in particular for the dollar. Apart from inflation, which has recently been firmer anyway due to the significant increases in import tariffs, further attacks by the US government are likely to make it difficult for the US central bank to respond adequately to an inflation shock.”
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is losing momentum near 98.00 as safe-haven demand fades on the reopening news, but downside remains limited amid lingering geopolitical risks.
Markets are experiencing fluctuations between relief and renewed caution as developments around the Strait of Hormuz continue to evolve. Earlier reports confirmed that this vital Oil chokepoint is “fully open and ready for full passage,” alleviating fears about prolonged supply disruptions.
However, new developments are complicating the situation. Reports suggest that Iran may consider closing the Strait of Hormuz again if the United States maintains its naval blockade, warning that such an action would be viewed as a violation of the ceasefire.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.09%
-0.17%
-0.59%
-0.23%
-0.31%
-0.16%
-0.49%
EUR
0.09%
-0.08%
-0.52%
-0.15%
-0.22%
-0.08%
-0.42%
GBP
0.17%
0.08%
-0.45%
-0.07%
-0.14%
0.01%
-0.32%
JPY
0.59%
0.52%
0.45%
0.37%
0.28%
0.42%
0.09%
CAD
0.23%
0.15%
0.07%
-0.37%
-0.08%
0.05%
-0.26%
AUD
0.31%
0.22%
0.14%
-0.28%
0.08%
0.15%
-0.19%
NZD
0.16%
0.08%
-0.01%
-0.42%
-0.05%
-0.15%
-0.34%
CHF
0.49%
0.42%
0.32%
-0.09%
0.26%
0.19%
0.34%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is pushing higher toward the 1.1790 region, benefiting from the softer USD tone, although gains remain capped by cautious sentiment and mixed Eurozone data.
GBP/USD is also advancing near the 1.3550 level, supported by improved risk appetite as the pair attempts to recover recent losses amid a reassessment of global risks.
USD/JPY fell near the 158.20 price zone as the Japanese Yen (JPY) finds some support from residual safe-haven demand.
AUD/USD was one of the top performers earlier in the day, rallying sharply toward the 0.7200 region but later easing to near the 0.7180 price zone. Oil shock fears and improved global sentiment favor commodity-linked currencies.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil sharply declined to near the $83.00 per barrel, lower after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as supply concerns ease and risk premiums unwind. Still, prices remain vulnerable to sudden spikes if geopolitical tensions resurface.
Gold surged toward $4,865, even after safe-haven demand weakened amid ongoing uncertainty and the risk of renewed escalation in the Middle East.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Tuesday, April 21:
ECB’s Nagel speech
ECB’s De Guindos speech
Fed’s Waller speech
Wednesday, April 22:
ECB’s Elderson speech
ECB’s Lane speech
BoE’s Breeden speech
ECB’s Lane speech
ECB’s Cipollone speech
ECB’s Sleijpen speech
ECB’s Nagel speech
ECB’s President Lagarde speech
Thursday, April 23:
ECB’s Nagel speech
Friday, April 24:
SNB Chairman Schlegel’s speech
Central banks’ meetings and upcoming data releases to shape
Monday, April 20:
China PBoC Interest Rate Decision
Germany PPI March
Canada CPIs
Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey
New Zealand Business Confidence Q1
New Zealand CPI Q1
Tuesday, April 21:
United Kingdom Labor Market Data
Germany ZEW Survey April
Eurozone ZEW Survey April
United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average
USD/JPY edges lower as softer USD and falling Oil prices support the Yen.
WTI plunges over 10% after Hormuz reopening, easing inflation concerns.
Technically, USD/JPY trades below the 20-day SMA, keeping the near-term bias bearish.
USD/JPY edges lower on Friday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against a softer US Dollar (USD), with easing Oil prices providing additional support, given Japan’s heavy reliance on imported energy. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 158.18, down 0.61% on the day.
Despite the decline, the pair remains largely range-bound within a one-month range between 157.50 and 160.50 and is on track for a third consecutive weekly decline, mirroring moves in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies. The index remains under pressure amid improving market sentiment surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal.
Crude prices plunged more than 10% after Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a statement on X that, in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait has been declared open for the remaining period of the truce, with transit taking place along coordinated routes set by Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organisation.
The sharp drop in Oil prices is easing immediate inflation risks, reviving expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, while reinforcing the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) gradual policy normalization path.
Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor developments around US–Iran talks over the weekend, with markets watching for signs of a lasting peace deal. However, unresolved differences, particularly over nuclear issues, could keep uncertainty elevated.
In the daily chart, USD/JPY holds a bearish near-term bias as spot sits below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) component of the Bollinger Bands at 159.20 while only marginally above the lower band support at 158.15. This configuration suggests the recent pullback is not yet resolved, with the pair trading in the lower half of its volatility envelope; a sub-50 Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 and a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading around -0.20 both hint that downside momentum still outweighs buying interest.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger SMA midline near 159.20, with a stronger cap emerging at the upper band around 160.25, where renewed selling pressure could reappear if the pair attempts a rebound. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the lower Bollinger Band near 158.15; a daily close below this level would expose deeper losses toward prior price floors, whereas holding above it would keep the pair confined to a corrective consolidation within the broader uptrend.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.12%
-0.19%
-0.62%
-0.20%
-0.28%
-0.16%
-0.51%
EUR
0.12%
-0.07%
-0.52%
-0.09%
-0.17%
-0.05%
-0.41%
GBP
0.19%
0.07%
-0.45%
-0.02%
-0.10%
0.02%
-0.33%
JPY
0.62%
0.52%
0.45%
0.44%
0.35%
0.46%
0.12%
CAD
0.20%
0.09%
0.02%
-0.44%
-0.08%
0.02%
-0.31%
AUD
0.28%
0.17%
0.10%
-0.35%
0.08%
0.12%
-0.23%
NZD
0.16%
0.05%
-0.02%
-0.46%
-0.02%
-0.12%
-0.35%
CHF
0.51%
0.41%
0.33%
-0.12%
0.31%
0.23%
0.35%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
USD/CHF falls below all major SMAs, confirming bearish structure shift.
RSI in bearish territory reflects strong selling pressure since April.
Break below 0.7800 exposes 0.7775 and 0.7748 support levels.
USD/CHF finishes the week on a lower note, down 0.87% for the week and 0.27% in the day, as markets turn optimistic about a possible US-Iran deal over the weekend. In the meantime, the technical picture remains bearish, as the pair tumbled below key moving averages, hitting a five-week low at 0.7775.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The daily chart shows the pair ended the day below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7825—the last of a group of four that included the 20-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs —, opening the door for further downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also in bearish territory, indicating that bears have been aggressive since April 9, when the index pierced below its 50-neutral level.
For a bearish continuation, the USD/CHF must clear key support at 0.7800. A breach of the latter will expose a key support trendline around 0.7775/80, followed by the March 10 daily low at 0.7748. Fresh buying interest is seen at 0.7700.
On the other hand, a break of resistance at the 50-day SMA would expose the 100-day SMA at 0.7871, ahead of the 20-day SMA at 0.7909. Overhead lies the 200-day SMA at 0.7937.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
USD/CHF daily chart
Swiss Franc Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.78%
-0.92%
-0.59%
-1.23%
-2.48%
-1.43%
-1.14%
EUR
0.78%
-0.15%
0.17%
-0.43%
-1.65%
-0.66%
-0.34%
GBP
0.92%
0.15%
0.26%
-0.30%
-1.50%
-0.51%
-0.18%
JPY
0.59%
-0.17%
-0.26%
-0.66%
-1.84%
-0.74%
-0.57%
CAD
1.23%
0.43%
0.30%
0.66%
-1.10%
-0.09%
0.11%
AUD
2.48%
1.65%
1.50%
1.84%
1.10%
1.06%
1.27%
NZD
1.43%
0.66%
0.51%
0.74%
0.09%
-1.06%
0.31%
CHF
1.14%
0.34%
0.18%
0.57%
-0.11%
-1.27%
-0.31%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
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