The pair returned below the horizontal resistance area at 0.9220
EURCHF is trading below the 100-period exponential moving average from D1 interval
Recommendation: Trade: Short EURCHF at market price Target: 0.8995 Stop: 0.9272
Opinion:
Looking at EURCHF on the D1 interval, one can see a potential downward trend resumption. Following a break above the 1:1 geometry, the pair quickly returned below the upper limit of the aforementioned 1:1 structure. According to the Overbalance methodology, the main trend remains downward. In addition the pair sits below the 100-period moving average from the D1 interval. We recommend going short USDCAD at market price with a target of 0.8995. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 0.9272.
The offshore yuan strengthened to around 6.80 per dollar on Thursday, extending its rally for a third straight session and reaching its strongest level since February 2023, as risk sentiment firmed amid growing optimism over a potential diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran.
Reports indicated that the US and Iran are close to finalizing a one-page memorandum designed to halt weeks of hostilities, paving the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, easing disruptions to oil flows, and improving global growth prospects. Investors are also watching a highly anticipated summit next week between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, previously postponed amid heightened geopolitical tensions tied to the Middle East war. Meanwhile, China’s financial regulator reportedly told major lenders to suspend new financing to five refineries sanctioned by the US over alleged Iranian oil ties, contrasting with earlier guidance from Beijing urging firms to ignore US sanctions.
EUR/JPY trades calmly amid hopes that Japan could intervene again.
Japan’s Mimura said that he will closely monitor the forex markets.
The risk-on impulse has improved the Euro’s appeal.
The EUR/JPY pair trades in a tight range around 183.75 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The pair struggles for a direction as investors remain on the sidelines amid hopes that Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) could intervene again.
Japan’s Vice Finance Minister (FM) for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, Atsushi Mimura, said earlier in the day, that he will closely monitor the foreign exchange (FX) markets. However, Mimura declined to comment on specific levels where an intervention could take place.
While there has been no official confirmation from Japan that it has intervened in markets to counter one-way speculative moves against the Japanese Yen (JPY) in the last few trading days, there have been strong upside moves in the Asia-Pacific currency on April 30 and May 6.
Although they’ve not commented officially, I think we have to assume that the MoF stepped in again,” analysts at Pepperstone said, adding, “You don’t get a huge move like that, with no obvious catalyst, unless there’s a ‘silent hand’ involved, Reuters report.
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) trades broadly firm as the risk-on impulse remains boosted amid firm hopes of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. An Axios report has shown that Washington is close to reaching a deal with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war.
Going forward, investors will focus on European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s speech, which is scheduled for Friday, for fresh cues on the monetary policy outlook.
The hawkish BoJ and intervention speculations underpin the JPY, keeping a lid on the pair.
The divergent BoJ-Fed policy outlooks warrant some caution before initiating bullish bets.
The USD/JPY pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s goodish rebound from its lowest level since February 24, around the 155.00 psychological mark, and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-156.00s, nearly unchanged for the day.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to draw support from speculations that authorities will step in again to prop up the domestic currency and the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) hawkish outlook. In fact, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top currency diplomat, Masato Mimura, delivered another round of verbal intervention and reiterated his close watch on foreign exchange markets. This comes on top of JPY intervention reports, which suggested that Japan may have spent as much as ¥5.48 trillion ($35 billion) buying the JPY after the USD/JPY pair surged past the 160.00 psychological mark last Friday.
Meanwhile, Minutes of the March 18-19 BoJ meeting showed board members reaffirmed that further rate hikes remained appropriate if the economic and price outlook was realised. The pace and timing will be determined meeting by meeting based on wages, prices, and the evolving Iran situation, the Minutes revealed further. This marks a significant divergence in comparison to diminishing odds for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), benefiting the lower-yielding JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, remains depressed amid hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and also caps the USD/JPY pair.
In fact, US President Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone on Wednesday, saying that negotiations had made progress over the past 24 hours and that Iran wants to make a deal. Adding to this, Axios, citing two US officials, reported that the White House was nearing a deal with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war. The optimism, in turn, is seen undermining the USD’s reserve currency status. Investors, however, reassess the likelihood of a possible Iran-US deal amid major disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program, holding back traders from placing directional bets on the USD/JPY pair.
Japanese Yen Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.60%
-0.87%
-2.48%
-0.35%
-1.64%
-2.10%
-1.58%
EUR
0.60%
-0.23%
-1.97%
0.27%
-1.04%
-1.48%
-0.96%
GBP
0.87%
0.23%
-1.72%
0.51%
-0.79%
-1.24%
-0.72%
JPY
2.48%
1.97%
1.72%
2.27%
0.91%
0.41%
1.11%
CAD
0.35%
-0.27%
-0.51%
-2.27%
-1.34%
-1.86%
-1.23%
AUD
1.64%
1.04%
0.79%
-0.91%
1.34%
-0.39%
0.07%
NZD
2.10%
1.48%
1.24%
-0.41%
1.86%
0.39%
0.51%
CHF
1.58%
0.96%
0.72%
-1.11%
1.23%
-0.07%
-0.51%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
EUR/USD stalls the previous day’s late pullback from over a two-week high amid a weaker USD.
US-Iran peace deal hopes and fading hawkish Fed expectations continue to undermine the buck.
Traders look to second-tier macro data for some impetus ahead of the US NFP report on Friday.
The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Thursday and stalls the previous day’s late pullback from the 1.1800 neighborhood, or over a two-week high. Spot prices currently trade just above mid-1.1700s, up nearly 0.10% for the day, and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics.
The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s upbeat US employment data-inspired bounce from a nearly three-week low and remains depressed for the second straight day amid hopes for a US-Iran peace deal. In fact, the ADP report showed that private-sector employment grew by 109K in April, compared to a downwardly revised reading of 61K in the previous month. This, however, was offset by the optimism over a potential agreement to end the Iran war.
US President Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone on Wednesday, saying that negotiations had made progress over the past 24 hours and that Iran wants to make a deal. Adding to this, Axios, citing two US officials, reported that the White House was nearing a deal with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the conflict. This, along with fading hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, undermines the USD’s reserve currency status and supports the EUR/USD pair.
However, according to the CME Group’s CME FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate hike by the end of this year. Furthermore, investors reassess the likelihood of a possible Iran-US peace deal amid major disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program. This keeps investors on edge and could act as a tailwind for the Greenback, warranting caution before placing aggressive bullish bets around the EUR/USD pair and positioning for any further appreciating move.
Traders now look to the second-tier macro data – German Factory Orders, French Trade Balance, US Challenger Job Cuts, and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims – for some impetus. The focus, however, will remain glued to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Apart from this, fresh developments surrounding the Middle East crisis might continue to infuse volatility, which, in turn, will drive the USD and produce trading opportunities around the EUR/USD pair.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.12%
-0.11%
-0.19%
-0.02%
-0.15%
-0.16%
-0.10%
EUR
0.12%
0.01%
-0.06%
0.11%
-0.04%
-0.04%
0.02%
GBP
0.11%
-0.01%
-0.08%
0.08%
-0.05%
-0.06%
0.00%
JPY
0.19%
0.06%
0.08%
0.16%
0.03%
-0.02%
0.10%
CAD
0.02%
-0.11%
-0.08%
-0.16%
-0.13%
-0.14%
-0.08%
AUD
0.15%
0.04%
0.05%
-0.03%
0.13%
-0.00%
0.05%
NZD
0.16%
0.04%
0.06%
0.02%
0.14%
0.00%
0.06%
CHF
0.10%
-0.02%
-0.00%
-0.10%
0.08%
-0.05%
-0.06%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
AUD/USD may rebound as easing US-Iran tensions weaken safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
Iran said a US proposal to end the war remains under consideration after reports of a possible agreement.
The US Dollar may weaken as easing inflation pressures strengthen expectations for Fed interest rate cuts.
AUD/USD gains ground for the third successive day, trading around 0.7240 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovers its daily losses against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of Australia’s Trade Balance data.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday that Australia posted a Trade Deficit of $1,841M in March, compared with a revised $5,026M surplus in February (previously $5,686M). Markets had expected a $4,250M surplus. Meanwhile, Exports fell 2.7% month-over-month (MoM) after rising 4.2% previously, while monthly imports surged 14.1% following a prior 2.7% decline.
The Australian Dollar may further receive support from hopes that the US and Iran are moving closer to an agreement to end the war. The BBC reported on Wednesday that Iran said a US proposal to end the war is “still being considered” after reports that the two countries could be close to an agreement. The US has presented a one-page memorandum of understanding to Iran that would gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the American blockade on Iranian ports. Detailed talks on Iran’s nuclear program would come later in the process, the person said, adding that nothing has been agreed upon yet.
CNBC reported on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump said that Iran will be bombed “at a much higher level” if it doesn’t agree to a peace deal. Trump, in a Truth Social post, said the US military offensive known as Operation Epic Fury “will be at an end” if Iran “agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption.”
The US Dollar could face challenges as easing concerns over price pressures could convince the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut the interest rate rather than keep policy restrictive for longer.
The Canadian Dollar may weaken as falling oil prices pressure Canada’s crude-export-driven economy.
Oil prices fall as easing Middle East tensions reduce concerns over potential supply disruptions.
The US proposed to Iran a memorandum of understanding to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
USD/CAD remains flat after registering modest gains in the previous trading day, hovering around 1.3630 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may struggle amid lower oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its losses for the third consecutive day, trading around $92.60 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude oil prices depreciate on easing supply concerns amid prospects for a Middle East peace deal.
The BBC reported on Wednesday that Iran said a US proposal to end the war is “still being considered” after reports that the two countries could be close to an agreement. The US has presented a one-page memorandum of understanding to Iran that would gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the American blockade on Iranian ports. Detailed talks on Iran’s nuclear program would come later in the process, the person said, adding that nothing has been agreed upon yet.
CNBC reported on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump said that Iran will be bombed “at a much higher level” if it doesn’t agree to a peace deal. Trump, in a Truth Social post, said the US military offensive known as Operation Epic Fury “will be at an end” if Iran “agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption.”
The US Dollar could face challenges as easing concerns over price pressures could convince the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut the interest rate rather than keep policy restrictive for longer.
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