AUD/USD – Middle East peace hopes back further recovery towards 20-day EMA

April 1, 2026
  • AUD/USD rises further to near 0.6910 as de-escalation in the Middle East war has boosted investors’ risk appetite.
  • Both the US and Iran have signaled readiness to end the Middle East war.
  • Investors await the US ADP Employment data for fresh cues on the interest rate outlook.

The AUD/USD pair gives back some of its early gains, but still trades 0.12% higher to near 0.6910 during the late Asian trading session on Wednesday. The Aussie pair extends Tuesday’s recovery move, as hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East have strengthened after comments from both the United States (US) and Iran signaling willingness to end the war.

The expectation of an end to the month-long Middle East war has improved the demand of riskier assets. As of writing, S&P 500 futures trade 0.33% higher even after surging almost 3% on Tuesday, reflecting a significant improvement in investors; risk appetite.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) extends its corrective move as its safe-haven demand has diminished amid de-escalating Middle East tensions. During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 99.75.

Going forward, investors will focus on the US ADP Employment Change and the Manufacturing PMI data for March, which will be published in the North American session. Investors will pay close attention to the private employment data to get fresh cues on the US interest rate outlook.

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USD trades higher at around 0.6910 at the press time. However, the near-term bias is mildly bearish as the pair now holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has started to roll over after capping recent rebounds near the 0.70 area. Price has transitioned from trading above this average to respecting it as dynamic resistance, underscoring a loss of upside momentum from the mid-0.71 region.

The recovery move by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 40.00 after sliding below that level signals the presence of buying interest at lower levels, which diminishes the strength of an overall bearish tone.

Initial resistance emerges at 0.6980, where the 20-day EMA clusters with recent minor swing highs, followed by stronger resistance at 0.7050, whose break would be needed to challenge the 0.7120 peak. On the downside, the March 31 low at 0.6834 is the immediate support is at 0.6885, guarding the late pullback lows, with a break exposing the January 7 high of 0.6766 as the next level.

EUR/USD Trades above mid-1.1500s as bulls await move beyond 61.8% Fibo.

April 1, 2026
  • EUR/USD struggles to capitalize on modest Asian session move up to a one-week high.
  • Inflation fears keep Fed rate hike bets in play, supporting the USD and capping the pair.
  • The mixed technical setup also warrants caution before positioning for additional gains.

The EUR/USD pair touches a one-week top on Wednesday, though it lacks follow-through buying and remains below the 1.1600 mark through the Asian session. Moreover, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move.

Despite the optimism over hopes for an early US exit from the Iran war, reports that the UAE is pushing for military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz keep geopolitical risks in play. This continues to fuel inflationary concerns and hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, which act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside for the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, the overnight breakout through the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator eases toward the signal line while remaining marginally positive, suggesting fading but still positive momentum after the advance.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 66 retreats from overbought readings above 70, indicating cooling upside pressure rather than a clear reversal at this stage. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a move beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent fall witnessed over the past week or so before placing fresh bullish bets around the EUR/USD pair.

A sustained break higher would open the way toward the 1.1599 barrier and then the recent swing high around 1.1641. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. at 1.1520, reinforced by the nearby 200-hour EMA to form a key demand zone. A deeper setback would expose the 23.6% Fibo. level at 1.1492, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader upswing.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 1-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

Offshore Yuan Steady Amid Peace Hopes

April 1, 2026

The offshore yuan stabilized around 6.88 per dollar on Wednesday, following significant gains in the previous session as optimism over a potential near-term resolution to the Middle East conflict dented demand for the greenback. US President Trump said American forces would end operations in Iran within two to three weeks, adding that Iran was “begging to make a deal” but that any agreement was “irrelevant” to Washington’s timeline.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian earlier said Tehran had the “necessary will” to end the conflict, provided safeguards prevent renewed hostilities. The yuan gained further support as BOC Hong Kong works with regulators to upgrade digital wallets, following China’s move to allow interest on the currency, a step that could boost offshore adoption. Meanwhile, a private survey showed the manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8 in March 2026, from 52.1 in February. In contrast, official data indicated the manufacturing PMI rebounded to a one-year high of 50.4.

CAD rises on oil rebound, Middle East de-escalation hopes

April 1, 2026
  • USD/CAD depreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar gains on the oil prices rebound.
  • Emirati officials seek UNSC approval for a multinational military action to restore Strait navigation, potentially using force.
  • The US Dollar weakens as Trump indicated that the US will withdraw from Iran conflict within two to three weeks.

USD/CAD remains subdued for the second successive trading day, hovering around 1.3910 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair depreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from higher oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price rebounds after registering over 4% losses in the previous day, trading around $98.60 per barrel at the time of writing. Oil prices rebound as the Emirati officials are lobbying for a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution to authorize a multinational military mission to restore navigation in the strait, elevating risks of broader regional escalation.

The UAE is also urging the United States (US) and allied nations across Europe and Asia to form a coalition to clear mines, escort commercial vessels, and, if required, secure strategic positions along the waterway.

The USD/CAD pair also weakens as the US Dollar (USD) softens, weighed down by improving risk appetite amid rising hopes for Middle East peace. US President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that the United States (US) would be “leaving very soon” from the Iran war, noting that a withdrawal could take place within two to three weeks.

Trump further emphasized that a formal agreement with Tehran is not a necessary condition for ending hostilities. On the Iranian side, President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed a willingness to de-escalate regional tensions if specific guarantees are met.

GBP edges higher as Middle East war de-escalates

April 1, 2026
  • The Pound Sterling ticks up against its major peers amid significant de-escalation in the Middle East war.
  • Both the US and Iran have expressed willingness to end the month-long war.
  • Investors await the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for March.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades slightly higher against its major currency peers, rising 0.12% to near 1.3242, during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The British currency gains as demand for riskier assets has improved, following the announcement from Iran that is willing to end the war with the United States (US).

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.11%-0.06%-0.05%-0.08%-0.14%0.18%-0.22%
EUR0.11%0.05%0.07%0.03%-0.02%0.30%-0.11%
GBP0.06%-0.05%0.04%-0.01%-0.06%0.27%-0.13%
JPY0.05%-0.07%-0.04%-0.02%-0.05%0.23%-0.12%
CAD0.08%-0.03%0.01%0.02%-0.04%0.27%-0.12%
AUD0.14%0.02%0.06%0.05%0.04%0.33%-0.07%
NZD-0.18%-0.30%-0.27%-0.23%-0.27%-0.33%-0.40%
CHF0.22%0.11%0.13%0.12%0.12%0.07%0.40%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

According to the Iranian state news agency, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian told European Union (EU) Council President António Costa on Tuesday that his country is ready to end the war with the US, but it needs certain guarantees.

“We possess the necessary will to end this conflict, provided that essential conditions are met, especially the guarantees required to prevent repetition of the aggression,” Iranian President Pezeshkian said, according to Euronews.

Iran’s readiness for peace after United States (US) President Donald Trump’s truce call has diminished fears of further damage to energy infrastructure in the gulf region; however, there seems to be no significant decline in the oil price as energy supply constraints will sustain until the restoration of the infrastructure.

Meanwhile, fresh hopes of Middle East war de-escalation has diminished the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar, while its downside is expected to remain limited, as higher oil prices would keep discouraging Federal Reserve (Fed) officials from easing monetary conditions.

In Wednesday’s session, investors will focus on the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for March.

NZD/USD retreats from weekly top, slides to 0.5730 as Fed rate hike bets support USD

April 1, 2026
  • NZD/USD turns lower after touching a fresh weekly high during the Asian session on Wednesday.
  • Inflation fears and Fed rate hike bets remain in play, limiting USD losses and capping spot prices.
  • Delayed RBNZ rate hike bets due to prolonged energy supply shock further weigh on the NZD.

The NZD/USD pair attracts some sellers following a modest Asian session rise to the 0.5760 area, or the weekly top, and stalls the previous day’s recovery move from over a four-month low. Spot prices slide to the 0.730 region in the last hour and seem vulnerable to prolonging the downtrend witnessed over the past two months or so.

The optimism led by US President Donald Trump’s signal that the US would wind down current hostilities with Iran within two to three weeks remains limited amid reports that the UAE is pushing for military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to this, the US is still deploying additional troops and assets in the Middle East, raising the risk of a broader regional conflict. This keeps inflation concerns and Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets in play, which acts as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD) and exerts some pressure on the NZD/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is undermined by expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) could wait until Q4 before raising interest rates amid concerns that a prolonged energy supply shock would dent economic growth. Apart from this, the latest data published by RatingDog showed China’s Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.8 in March from 52.1. This counters Tuesday’s upbeat official PMIs and points to a fragile recovery in the world’s second-largest economy, which further weighs on antipodean currencies, including the Kiwi.

The aforementioned fundamental backdrop validates the near-term negative outlook for the NZD/USD pair, though traders might opt to wait for geopolitical developments before placing aggressive directional bets. In the meantime, Wednesday’s US economic docket – featuring the release of the ADP report on private-sector employment, the monthly Retail Sales, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI – will be looked upon for some impetus. The market attention will then shift to the release of the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

US Dollar Index remains below 100.00 as Trump’s remarks improve risk appetite

April 1, 2026
  • US Dollar Index declines as safe-haven demand fades amid growing optimism over easing Middle East tensions.
  • Trump said that the US may withdraw from the Iran conflict within two to three weeks.
  • Fed’s Powell said long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its losses for the second successive day and hovering around 99.80 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

The Greenback weakens amid fading safe-haven demand amid a moderation in Middle East tensions. US President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that the United States (US) would be “leaving very soon” from the Iran war, noting that a withdrawal could take place within two to three weeks. The comments reinforce earlier remarks suggesting that US strategic objectives have largely been fulfilled, raising expectations of a relatively swift resolution to the conflict.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed a willingness to de-escalate regional tensions if specific guarantees are met. However, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi took a firmer stance, asserting that Tehran is not seeking a temporary ceasefire but rather a complete termination of the war. He stressed the need for binding assurances against future aggression as well as compensation for damages, highlighting lingering uncertainty around the conflict’s resolution.

Moreover, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said earlier that long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, easing concerns that higher energy prices will quickly lift inflation and reduce the urgency for policy action.

USD/CAD rises to fresh three-month highs despite softer US Dollar

March 31, 2026
  • USD/CAD rises to fresh three-month highs despite a softer US Dollar.
  • Canada’s GDP signals a soft start to the year, with a modest rebound expected in February.
  • US Dollar eases from multi-month highs as traders reassess risk sentiment.

USD/CAD edges higher on Tuesday, with the Canadian Dollar (CAD) extending its decline against the US Dollar (USD) for a seventh consecutive day, even as the Greenback eases. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3960, hovering near its highest level since December 2025.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading near 100.17, pulling back after touching fresh ten-month highs of 100.64 earlier in the day.

The pullback in the US Dollar appears largely technical, while some easing in geopolitical risk sentiment is also weighing on demand after The Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

However, geopolitical risks remain elevated. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that it could target US companies in the region starting April 1 in retaliation for recent attacks.

The Loonie has remained under sustained pressure since the US-Israel war with Iran erupted, pushing energy prices sharply higher. While Canada is a net Oil exporter, persistent downside pressure on the CAD reflects growing concerns that elevated energy costs could weigh on domestic demand and slow broader economic growth.

Adding to the cautious tone, Canada’s January Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 0.1% MoM, slightly above expectations for a flat reading, though it marked a slowdown from the previous 0.2% expansion, pointing to soft underlying economic momentum at the start of the year.

However, preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP rose by 0.2% in February, indicating a modest pickup in activity and keeping growth broadly in line with the Bank of Canada’s 1.8% projection outlined in its January Monetary Policy Report.

Meanwhile, traders are increasingly pricing in at least two Bank of Canada (BoC) rate hikes by year-end amid oil-driven inflation pressures. However, persistent labour market headwinds and contained underlying inflation suggest the Bank could remain patient, with rate hikes likely only if Oil prices stay elevated for longer.

In the United States, economic data released on Tuesday showed that JOLTS Job Openings fell to 6.882 million in February from 7.24 million in January, slightly below expectations of 6.92 million.

US Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose to 91.8 in March, beating forecasts of 87.9 and improving from 91 in February.