Euro Drops Over 2% in March as Middle East Tensions Weigh

March 31, 2026

The euro closed March below $1.15, nearing its lowest point in nearly two weeks, after a volatile month marked by escalating tensions in the Middle East. The common currency lost over 2% against the dollar as traders assessed the economic impact of the deepening conflict. Adding to the uncertainty, a Wall Street Journal report revealed that US President Donald Trump had signaled a potential end to the US military campaign against Iran, even if the critical Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked. Soaring oil prices fueled inflation across Europe, prompting markets to drastically revise their expectations for the European Central Bank’s policy.

Investors now anticipate at least two interest rate hikes in 2026, abandoning earlier forecasts of a 40% chance of a rate cut. While French central bank chief François Villeroy de Galhau reaffirmed the ECB’s commitment to curbing energy-driven inflation, he cautioned that it was “too early” to specify the timing of any rate adjustments.

Offshore Yuan Gains on Upbeat PMI Data

March 31, 2026

The offshore yuan edged higher to around 6.91 per dollar on Tuesday, extending modest gains from the previous session, supported by the unexpectedly strong return of expansion in PMI data. Official figures showed composite PMI rising to a three-month high of 50.5 in March 2026, signaling renewed growth across both sub-sectors.

The manufacturing PMI rose to a one-year high of 50.4, while the non-manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1, supported by government stimulus, strong holiday spending, and solid exports despite global supply chain disruptions and volatile energy markets. However, while the Chinese policymakers have repeatedly emphasized the need to pivot the economy toward domestic consumption and reduce reliance on external demand, geopolitical risks, such as the ongoing Middle East war, could weigh on business activity in the coming months. The yuan is still on track for a monthly decline, as the US dollar continues to benefit from safe-haven demand amid geopolitical turbulence.

U.S Dollar Index (DXY) eases from YTD peak, trades below 100.50 on Iran de-escalation hopes

March 31, 2026
  • DXY attracts some sellers following a modest Asian session rise to a fresh YTD top.
  • Trump is reportedly open to ending the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Inflation concerns and rising Fed rate hike bets should help limit losses for the USD.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, retreated from its highest level since May 2025, touched during the Asian session this Tuesday, snapping a five-day winning streak. The index, however, lacks follow-through selling amid contrasting headlines over peace talks to end the war in the Middle East and currently trades around the 100.40-100.45 region, down less than 0.10% for the day.

The Wall Street Journal ​reported ​on Monday that US President Donald Trump is willing to end ​the military ​campaign against Iran even if the ​Strait of ​Hormuz remains largely closed. The headlines trigger a turnaround in the global risk sentiment, which, in turn, is seen undermining the safe-haven USD. Furthermore, a corrective pullback in Crude Oil prices helps ease inflationary concerns and keep US Treasury bond yields on the defensive, turning out to be another factor weighing on the Greenback.

Meanwhile, Trump issued a stark warning that the US could launch massive strikes on Iran’s key energy infrastructure if a deal is not reached soon and if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened to commercial traffic. Moreover, Iran has signaled reluctance to engage in direct negotiations with the US, highlighting fragile diplomatic progress. Adding to this, the US is still deploying additional troops and assets to the region, fueling uncertainty about a quick de-escalation of tensions in the region.

This should act as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices, which keeps inflation risks and bets for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in play. The hawkish outlook, in turn, should help limit deeper losses for the USD and warrants some caution before confirming that the index has topped out in the near term. Traders now look to the US economic data – JOLTS Job Openings and the Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index, for a fresh impetus later during the North American session.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.06%-0.14%-0.03%0.03%-0.01%0.03%-0.12%
EUR0.06%-0.07%0.05%0.13%0.08%0.12%-0.03%
GBP0.14%0.07%0.13%0.21%0.16%0.20%0.05%
JPY0.03%-0.05%-0.13%0.06%0.02%0.05%-0.08%
CAD-0.03%-0.13%-0.21%-0.06%-0.04%-0.00%-0.15%
AUD0.00%-0.08%-0.16%-0.02%0.04%0.05%-0.11%
NZD-0.03%-0.12%-0.20%-0.05%0.00%-0.05%-0.16%
CHF0.12%0.03%-0.05%0.08%0.15%0.11%0.16%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

AUD/USD Price – Consolidates around 0.6850 as bears await break below 100-day SMA

March 31, 2026
  • AUD/USD enters a bearish consolidation phase near a two-month low set on Monday.
  • The hawkish RBA Minutes and Iran de-escalation hopes offer some support to the pair.
  • The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bears and backs the case for deeper losses.

The AUD/USD pair seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses during the Asian session on Tuesday and consolidates its recent losses registered over the past week or so, to its lowest level in over two months, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around mid-0.6800s, nearly unchanged for the day, amid mixed fundamental cues.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) draws some support from the hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting Minutes, showing that board members agreed further tightening would likely be needed. Adding to this, reviving hopes for a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East boosts investors’ confidence, prompting a modest US Dollar (USD) pullback from the year-to-date and further benefiting the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices find some support near the rising 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around the 0.6820 area, which tempers the downside. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays below its signal line in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips toward 36, both reinforcing fading bullish momentum and favoring further corrective pressure.

The 100-day SMA is closely followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-March move higher, around the 0.6800 round figure, which should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. Some follow-through selling below the recent lows in the 0.6880–0.6850 region would turn the focus toward the 61.8% Fibo. level at 0.6713. A clear break under 0.6713 would open the path toward the 78.6% level at 0.6586 and signal a deeper fall.

On the flip side, the initial resistance emerges at the 50% retracement at 0.6803, now acting as a nearby pivot, with stronger resistance at the 38.2% Fibo. level at 0.6892. A sustained recovery above 0.6892 would expose the 23.6% retracement at 0.7003, where sellers previously capped advances. Nevertheless, the near-term bias is mildly bearish as the AUD/USD pair holds well below the 23.6% Fibo. retracement near the 0.7000 psychological mark.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD daily chart

Chart Analysis AUD/USD

USD/CHF struggles to extent winning streak on de-escalation in Middle East conflicts

March 31, 2026
  • USD/CHF edges down to near 0.7985 as the US Dollar faces slight selling pressure.
  • A fresh de-escalation in the Middle East war has diminished the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar.
  • US President Trump is willing for peace with Iran without the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The USD/CHF pair ticks lower to near 0.7985 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, struggling to extend its five-day winning streak, as the US Dollar (USD) faces slight selling pressure on reports that United States (US) President Donald Trump is willing to make peace with Iran without forcing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades subduedly around 100.40.

Earlier in the day, a report by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) showed that US President Trump is ready for peace with Iran, as Washington has cripped its military infrastructure. Trump added that Washington would pursue diplomatic ways for the Hormuz reopening, as a forceful way to reopen the waterways would stretch the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks.

US President Trump’s call for a truce has improved the risk appetite of investors, resulting in a strong demand for riskier assets across the world. S&P 500 futures trade almost 1% higher above 6,400, as of writing.

A fresh de-escalation in Middle East conflicts has also resulted in a sharp correction in the oil price, which could weigh on hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets that were accelerated due to higher energy prices-led de-anchored inflation expectations.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) trades marginally higher against a majority of its currency peers. Broadly the Swiss currency has been under pressure as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) expressed, in the monetary policy announcement this month, readiness to intervene against excessive appreciation in the CHF.

USD/JPY Price – Bulls struggle below 160.00 amid intervention fears, softer USD

March 31, 2026
  • USD/JPY faces rejection ahead of the 160.00 psychological mark amid a modest USD downtick.
  • Intervention fears further benefit the JPY and contribute to capping the upside for spot prices.
  • The technical setup favors a bullish outlook amid reduced BoJ rate hike bets and geopolitical uncertainties.

The USD/JPY pair attracts fresh sellers following a modest Asian session uptick to the 160.00 neighborhood on Tuesday, though it manages to hold above the previous day’s swing low. Spot prices currently trade around the 159.70-159.75 region, unchanged for the day, as traders seem reluctant amid mixed fundamental cues.

Against the backdrop of economic concerns stemming from the Iran war, softer Tokyo consumer inflation figures temper bets for an immediate policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This, in turn, undermines the Japanese Yen (JPY) and supports the USD/JPY pair. However, hopes for a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and cap spot prices amid JPY intervention fears.

From a technical perspective, the near-term tone stays mildly bullish as the USD/JPY pair holds well above the rising 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the broader uptrend intact despite the recent hesitation above the 160.00 psychological mark. Furthermore, the lack of follow-through selling favors bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has flattened around the zero line after losing upside traction, suggesting fading bullish momentum rather than a clear reversal. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 59 remains in positive territory without overbought signals, which validates the positive outlook and supports a bias for dip-buying while momentum consolidates.

The aforementioned structure favors renewed tests of 160.30, the recent swing high, followed by a higher barrier at 161.00, where a breakout would reopen the path toward fresh cycle highs. On the downside, immediate support aligns at 159.00, with a deeper floor at 158.40 that guarded prior pullbacks. A daily close below the latter would expose 157.70 as the next downside level for the USD/JPY pair.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY daily chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY

GBP/USD Price – Holds gains near 1.3200 despite persistent bearish bias

March 31, 2026
  • GBP/USD may retest support near 1.3150 at the lower boundary of the descending channel.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 38 signals fading downside momentum, but insufficient buying pressure.
  • The pair may climb toward resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.3291.

GBP/USD halts its five-day losing streak, trading around 1.3200 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing bearish bias, as the pair moves downwards within the descending channel pattern.

The near-term bias stays mildly bearish as the GBP/USD pair holds below both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which cap price action and frame a descending short-term profile.

Additionally, the latest 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 38 after recovering from oversold territory, indicating fading downside momentum but not yet enough buying pressure to challenge the dominant corrective phase from recent highs.

The GBP/USD pair may retest the immediate support at the descending channel’s lower boundary around 1.3150. A break below the channel would expose the 1.3010, the lowest since April 2025, which was recorded in November 2025.

On the upside, the GBP/USD pair may rise toward the primary barrier at the nine-day EMA of 1.3291. Further advances would lead the GBP/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.3412, followed by the upper descending channel boundary around 1.3460. A break above this confluence resistance would trigger a bullish bias, paving the way for the pair to test 1.3869, its highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27.

GBP/USD: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.03%-0.08%-0.05%0.05%0.12%0.20%-0.10%
EUR0.03%-0.04%0.02%0.13%0.18%0.26%-0.03%
GBP0.08%0.04%0.06%0.18%0.23%0.30%0.01%
JPY0.05%-0.02%-0.06%0.11%0.16%0.24%-0.04%
CAD-0.05%-0.13%-0.18%-0.11%0.06%0.14%-0.15%
AUD-0.12%-0.18%-0.23%-0.16%-0.06%0.09%-0.21%
NZD-0.20%-0.26%-0.30%-0.24%-0.14%-0.09%-0.30%
CHF0.10%0.03%-0.01%0.04%0.15%0.21%0.30%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

EUR/USD snaps five-day losing streak as Trump mulls ending Iran war

March 31, 2026

EUR/USD finds support near 1.1450 after snapping a five-day losing streak.

US President Trump is willing to end the war with Iran, WSJ reported.

Investors await flash Eurozone HICP data for March.

The EUR/USD pair attracts bids after a five-day losing streak and edges higher to near 1.1475 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair ticks up as the US Dollar (USD) edges down amid hopes of an end to the month-long war in the Middle East.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly lower to near 100.40.

The expectations of peace in the Middle East war, which involves the United States (US), Israel, and Iran, have accelerated as President Trump has stated that he is willing to end the war, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported. The report also shows that Trump is ready for peace despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining largely closed, as he doesn’t intend a forceful reopening to avoid stretching the military mission beyond his timeline of four to six weeks.

The continuous closure of the Hormuz, through which almost 20% of global energy is supplied, would limit the upside in the oil price, a scenario that will keep global inflation projections elevated. This could be the reason behind a slight downtick in the US Dollar, which should have faced intense selling pressure on peace hopes, as it rallied in the past few weeks due to hopes that de-anchored inflation expectations would discourage the Federal Reserve (Fed) from loosening the monetary policy in the near term.

Meanwhile, higher oil prices are expected to remain a key drag on the Euro (EUR), given that the Eurozone is an energy importer.

On the macro front, investors await the flash Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for March, which will be published at 09:00 GMT. The headline HICP is expected to have grown at a robust pace of 2.7% Year-on-Year (YoY) against the previous reading of 1.9%.