How does the technical situation on EURUSD looks like?
Facts:
EURUSD is trading in an upward move from mid-March
The pair bounced off the horizontal support at 1.1725 USD
The pair is trading above the 100 – period moving average form H4 interval
Recommendation: Trade: Long position on EURUSD at market price Target: 1.1833, 1.1884 Stop: 1.1680
Opinion: Looking at EURUSD at the H4 interval, we can see that the main sentiment on the pair is bullish. However, a downward correction has occurred recently, which has brought the pair down to the key support at 1.1725 USD. The support is a result of previous reactions as well as a lower limit of 1:1 structure. According to the Overbalance strategy, as long as the price sits above 1.1725 support, the main trend remains upward. We recommend going long EURUSD at market price with two targets: 1.1833 and 1.1884. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 1.1680. Source: xStation5
USD/JPY attracts some sellers and erodes a part of Tuesday’s gains to over a one-week top.
The US-Iran ceasefire extension undermines the USD and exerts some pressure on the pair.
Hormuz risks and delayed BoJ rate hike bets cap gains for the JPY and support spot prices.
The USD/JPY pair adds to its modest intraday losses and moves further away from over a one-week high, around the 159.70 region, touched the previous day. Spot prices drop to the 159.00 neighborhood, or a fresh daily low, during the early European session, though the downside potential seems limited.
A temporary extension of the US-Iran ceasefire prompts some selling around the US Dollar (USD) and exerts some downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. However, economic concerns stemming from a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, along with bets for a delayed Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike, might continue to undermine the Japanese Yen (JPY) and help limit losses for the currency pair.
The USD/JPY pair shows some resilience below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move up from last week’s swing low, around the 157.60 region, and bounced off the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 1-hour chart. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally below zero, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 48 signals neutral to slightly soft momentum.
Momentum indicators, in turn, hint that the upside impetus is fading but not yet undermining the broader intraday support near the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at 159.15, reinforced by the 100-period EMA at 159.07 just beneath. A deeper pullback would expose the 38.2% retracement at 158.85, followed by layered Fibonacci supports at 158.60, 158.36, and 158.01, with the 157.57 swing low acting as a more distant structural floor if selling pressure accelerates.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
AUD/USD gains traction to around 0.7160 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
Trump said the US is extending the ceasefire with Iran at Pakistan’s request.
Markets expect the RBA to further raise the rate due to rising fuel costs and inflation.
The AUD/USD pair trades in positive territory near 0.7160 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. However, the potential upside for the pair might be limited amid uncertainty regarding Iran’s participation in further peace talks.
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he is extending the ceasefire with Iran while awaiting a “unified proposal” from Tehran. Trump also stated that he would maintain a blockade over ships coming to and from Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, and he was extending the ceasefire until Iran submitted a new proposal, “and discussions are concluded, one way or the other.”
Comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair nominee Kevin Warsh regarding independent monetary policy contribute to the USD’s upside. Warsh said on Tuesday he had made no promises to Trump about cutting interest rates, as he tried to assure US senators mulling his confirmation to lead the Fed that he would act independently of the White House while pursuing broad reforms.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) warned that the Middle East has caused oil price spikes that threaten to push inflation toward 6%. Markets are now pricing in nearly a 77% probability of an RBA rate hike next month as Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser reinforced a commitment to anchoring inflation.
Traders will keep an eye on the preliminary readings of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from Australia and the US, which are due on Thursday.
NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5905 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
New Zealand’s CPI rose 3.1% YoY in Q1, hotter than expected.
Warsh rejected senators’ concerns that he would bend to Trump’s demands to cut interest rates.
The NZD/USD pair gathers strength to around 0.5905 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on hotter-than-expected domestic inflation data.
New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1% YoY in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, versus 3.1% increase seen in the fourth quarter of 2025, Statistics New Zealand reported on Tuesday. This figure came in above the market consensus of 2.9%. The quarterly CPI inflation climbed to 0.9% in Q1 from the previous reading of 0.6%, beating the estimates of 0.8%.
Higher-than-expected Q1 inflation data has fueled market speculation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may need to raise interest rates sooner than previously. This, in turn, provides some support to the Kiwi.
On the other hand, remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair nominee Kevin Warsh regarding independent monetary policy might help limit the USD’s losses. Warsh said on Tuesday he had made no promises to Trump about cutting interest rates, as he tried to assure US senators mulling his confirmation to lead the Fed that he would act independently of the White House while pursuing broad reforms.
USD/CHF flattens around 0.7800 as the US Dollar trades calmly.
US President Trump extends the ceasefire with Iran for an indefinite period.
Fed’s Warsh prioritizes a smaller balance sheet while testifying in his confirmation hearing.
The USD/CHF pair trades in a tight range around 0.7800 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The Swiss Franc pair consolidates as investors await remarks from Iran regarding the announcement of the ceasefire extension by the United States (US).
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto Tuesday’s gains around 98.40.
Late Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire for an indefinite period, through a post on Truth Socia, stating that the military department will hold their attacks on Iran until Washington receives a unified proposal.
Meanwhile, the US blockade on Iranian sea ports continues, which is one of the key reasons highlighted by Iran for not agreeing to sit down again with Washington for the resumption of peace talks. Earlier in the day, Iran has warned a powerful attack if the US continues the blockade.
On the domestic front, newly appointed Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh has stated in his confirmation hearing that he will prioritize “smaller balance sheet”, which would mean “rates could be lower, inflation get better, economy stronger”.
The Mexican peso was at the 17.3 per USD mark, remaining relatively close to the six-week high of 17.25 from April 15th as markets dimmed expectations of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, supporting emerging market currencies against the dollar. Benchmark oil prices eased off their multi-year peaks from late March and limited the magnitude of risk-off sentiment. In the meantime, mid-month inflation data showed that headline price growth in Mexico surged to its highest in 17 months in March. The data strengthened the argument for hawks in the Bank of Mexico, increasing the likelihood of a hold in the central bank’s upcoming decision following the controversial cut this month.
EUR/USD drifts to session lows near 1.1750 on Tuesday but maintains its upside bias intact.
Investors remain cautious ahead of the ZEW Survey and the US-Iran peace talks.
Eurozone economic sentiment is expected to have remained downbeat in April.
The Euro (EUR) extends losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, reaching session lows right above 1.1750 at the time of writing after failing to extend Monday’s gains past 1.1790. Investors have adopted a “wait-and-see” mode, awaiting the release of Eurozone economic sentiment data and developments from the US-Iran peace talks.
The Wall Street Journal affirmed that Tehran told regional mediators that they will send a delegation to Pakistan after threatening to pull out from the process on Monday, following the seizure of an Iranian cargo vessel by the US military. Beyond that, Reuters cited an anonymous US source, affirming that “things are moving forward”, altogether, feeding a moderate market optimism.
In the Eurozone, the German and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey is expected to show downbeat figures in April, highlighting the negative economic impact of the energy shock stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.
The German Economic Sentiment Index is expected to have deteriorated to -5, its weakest reading in the last 12 months, from -0.5 in March. In the Eurozone, the reading is seen improving to -3.6, from -8.5 in the previous month, but still at negative levels, pointing to a pessimistic view about the near-term outlook.
EUR/USD maintains its upside trend from the late-March lows intact, but recent price action shows some hesitation ahead of the 1.1800 area. Technical indicators in the 4-hour chart are also hinting at a weakening upside momentum.
The Relative Strength Index has been moving back and forth around the 50 midline, pointing to a lack of clear bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains at its slightly negative levels, showing a fading upside pressure rather than a decisive bearish turn, at least for now.
Bulls have been capped at 1.1790 area earlier on Tuesday, which is closing the path towards Friday’s highs near 1.1850 for now. On the downside, immediate support is located at Monday’s lows near 1.1730, followed by the upward-sloping trendline, now around 1.1705. A clear break below this area would open the way towards a cluster of support levels between 1.1645 and 1.1675, which held bears on April 8, 9, 10, and 13.
USD/CHF rises as the US Dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand amid persistent uncertainty over US–Iran talks.
President Trump said Vice President Vance will leave Monday for Pakistan to resume negotiations.
Traders expect SNB policymakers ready to intervene in FX markets to curb excessive Swiss Franc appreciation.
USD/CHF edges higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7790 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from increasing risk aversion, driven by persistent uncertainty surrounding US–Iran ceasefire negotiations. Traders assess ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as the 14-day ceasefire deadline approaches.
Bloomberg reported that US President Donald Trump stated that US Vice President JD Vance is leaving later on Monday for Pakistan to resume negotiations, “either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.” Iran is also sending a team, although it is unclear who would lead the delegation.
President Donald Trump has issued mixed signals earlier on the Iran war, saying he is not rushing to end it while expressing optimism about renewed talks with Tehran ahead of Wednesday’s ceasefire expiry.
However, the upside of the USD/CHF pair could be limited as the Swiss Franc (CHF) may find support from safe-haven inflows. Additionally, the CHF may also gain ground as rising concerns over a prolonged energy-driven inflation shock reinforce expectations of a more hawkish Swiss National Bank (SNB). Meanwhile, SNB meeting minutes from March highlighted growing uncertainty surrounding Switzerland’s economic outlook.
Market participants expect the SNB to intervene in FX markets to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss Franc. Traders await Swiss Trade Balance data due later in the day.
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