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USD/JPY Price Trades below 160.00 intervention threshold; bullish bias intact

  • USD/JPY retreats from over a one-month high set on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through.
  • The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire weighs on the USD and the currency pair amid intervention fears.
  • The bullish technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any corrective decline.

The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Thursday amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY). Furthermore, the Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar (USD) and exerts downward pressure on the currency pair.

Spot prices, however, lack follow-through and remain close to the 160.00 psychological mark or over a one-month high set earlier today. Economic concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. Adding to this, the uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks, along with hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, acts as a tailwind for the USD and contributes to limiting the downside for the USD/JPY pair.

Spot prices retain a constructive near-term tone within an upward-sloping channel. The lower boundary of the said channel coincides  with the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), which acted as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers above the midline, suggesting modest bullish momentum even as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flattens slightly below zero.

Momentum indicators hint at a slower advance rather than a sharp reversal. Hence, any corrective pullback might continue to attract fresh buyers near the 159.45 confluence support. A convincing break, however, might prompt some technical selling and pave the way for deeper losses. As long as buyers defend this support band above 159.44, the broader bias stays tilted higher, and a renewed push toward the channel top at 160.14 remains the primary topside scenario.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Price Last 30 days

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 30 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.71%0.76%1.66%2.05%0.54%-0.02%0.83%
EUR-0.71%0.06%0.97%1.36%-0.20%-0.70%0.17%
GBP-0.76%-0.06%0.92%1.29%-0.23%-0.76%0.12%
JPY-1.66%-0.97%-0.92%0.35%-1.16%-1.66%-0.82%
CAD-2.05%-1.36%-1.29%-0.35%-1.50%-2.00%-1.16%
AUD-0.54%0.20%0.23%1.16%1.50%-0.54%0.39%
NZD0.02%0.70%0.76%1.66%2.00%0.54%0.89%
CHF-0.83%-0.17%-0.12%0.82%1.16%-0.39%-0.89%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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CHF rises as USD slips on Israel-Lebanon ceasefire news

  • USD/CHF falls as the US Dollar struggles on easing risk aversion after Israel and Lebanon renewed their ceasefire on Wednesday.
  • The Greenback may regain its ground as strong May jobs data fuels expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates.
  • Schlegel said recently that the SNB is ready to intervene against Middle East-driven Swiss Franc overvaluation pressures.

USD/CHF halts its three-day winning streak, trading around 0.7910 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground on easing risk aversion following the news that Israel and Lebanon on Wednesday agreed to renew a ceasefire. However, it would require a “complete cessation” of fire by Iran-backed Hezbollah. The agreement was announced in a joint statement after US-led talks in Washington.

The Israel and Lebanon do not have formal diplomatic relations, though also agreed to establish several “pilot security zones” in which the Lebanese armed forces “will take exclusive control of the territory to the exclusion of all non-state actors.”

The downside of the USD/CHF pair could be restrained as the Greenback may regain its ground amid rising expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this year. Stronger-than-expected US jobs data, including the May ADP private payrolls and JOLTS job openings, suggested a resilient US labor market. These reports might prompt traders to raise their bets that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer.

Market expectations have shifted dramatically as the war in Iran continues to disrupt energy markets, driving up oil prices and fueling inflation. Consequently, traders are adjusting to a more hawkish outlook, with the CME FedWatch Tool now pricing in a nearly 42% probability of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in December.

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel noted that the Swiss Franc’s real overvaluation is notably lower than its nominal overvaluation. Schlegel added that the central bank has increased its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market to counter safe-haven appreciation pressures driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East.

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Canadian Dollar drops to two-month low vs USD as Fed-BoC gap counter higher Oil prices

  • USD/CAD retains a bullish bias and continues to draw support from a combination of factors.
  • Domestic growth concerns and the divergent BoC-Fed expectations undermine the Loonie.
  • Geopolitical risks benefit the safe-haven USD and further offer some support to spot prices.

The USD/CAD pair climbs to a nearly two-week high during the Asian session on Thursday, with bulls now looking to build on the positive momentum further beyond the 1.3900 mark.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) continues with its relative underperformance against the US Dollar amid slowing domestic growth, a softening labor market, and interest rate divergence between the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). In fact, Canada faced consecutive quarters of economic contraction during the January-March 2026 period, confirming a technical recession. Adding to this, rising unemployment and weakening consumer demand could force the BoC to adopt a more dovish stance.

In contrast, traders are currently assigning over a 50% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates in 2026 amid sticky inflation. This, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties, acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD and continues to offer some support to the USD/CAD pair. In the latest development surrounding the Middle East conflict, the US military said on Tuesday that it had intercepted and defeated a series of Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting regional neighbors – Kuwait and Bahrain.

Furthermore, the lack of a breakthrough in US-Iran diplomatic negotiations, amid a standoff over Tehran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz, keeps geopolitical risks in play. This, in turn, assists Crude Oil prices in preserving weekly gains registered over the past three days, which helps limit further losses for the commodity-linked Loonie. Adding to this, the Israel-Lebanon agreement on the implementation of a ‌ceasefire keeps a lid on the safe-haven USD and contributes to capping the upside for the USD/CAD pair.

Investors also seem hesitant and opt to wait for the release of monthly employment details from the US and Canada on Friday. The crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be looked for more cues about the Fed’s policy path, which, along with the incoming geopolitical headlines, will drive the USD demand. Moreover, Crude Oil price dynamics should provide a fresh impetus to the USD/CAD pair. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.

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USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls turn cautious near 160.00 amid rising intervention risk

  • USD/JPY pauses for a breather as a fresh intervention warning helps limit JPY losses
  • Economic risks stemming from the Middle East conflict cap the JPY and support the pair.
  • The bullish USD sentiment backs the case for further gains amid a constructive setup.

The USD/JPY pair enters a bullish consolidation phase on Wednesday, oscillating in a narrow range just below the 160.00 psychological mark, or a one-month high touched during the Asian session. Verbal intervention by Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama offers some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY), which, along with a subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, caps spot prices.

However, economic concerns stemming from the conflict in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. In contrast, the lack of breakthrough in US-Iran peace negotiations, along with hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed), acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and helps limit downside for the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical perspective, this week’s move beyond the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the late April-early May downswing comes on top of the recent solid bounce from the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and favors bulls. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 61 suggests firm but not overextended upside momentum. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, hinting that buyers still retain control despite the proximity of recent cycle highs.

On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the late April swing high near 160.78, where a clear break would reopen the path toward fresh highs. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 78.6% retracement at 159.55, followed by the 61.8% level at 158.58 and the 50% retracement at 157.90. Deeper pullbacks would look to the 38.2% level at 157.22 and the 23.6% retracement at 156.38, ahead of a stronger demand area created by the 200-day EMA at 155.77 and the structural floor near 155.03.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY daily chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY
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EUR/USD declines as traders adopt caution on risk-off mood

  • EUR/USD depreciates as Middle East tensions drive safe-haven demand for the firm US Dollar.
  • CENTCOM announced it successfully intercepted multiple Iranian missile and drone strikes targeting Kuwait and Bahrain.
  • US Dollar remains firm as the Strait of Hormuz closure raises energy prices and inflation, keeping Fed rates higher for longer.

EUR/USD inches lower after moving little in the previous day, trading around 1.1630 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm, driven by stalled US-Iran peace negotiations and renewed tensions in the Middle East continued to underpin safe-haven demand.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced Tuesday that it successfully defeated a series of Iranian missile and drone strikes targeting Kuwait and Bahrain. In response to the regional aggression, US forces also executed self-defense strikes against military targets on Iran’s Qeshm Island, per ABC News.

The Strait of Hormuz closure threatens to drive energy prices higher and intensify global inflationary pressures, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 54 in May 2026, up from 52.7 in the prior two months and beating forecasts to mark the strongest factory expansion since May 2022. April JOLTS data showed Job Openings surging to a nearly two-year high of 7.6118 million alongside declining layoffs. With robust manufacturing and employment data complicating the inflation outlook, investors are now anxiously awaiting Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report for definitive clues on the future trajectory of monetary policy.

The Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 3.2% year-on-year in May, ticking up from the previous 3% and matching market forecasts. This steady inflationary pressure keeps the spotlight firmly on the European Central Bank’s upcoming monetary policy decisions.

The Euro (EUR) could gain ground amid recent hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) members. ECB policymaker Olli Rehn noted that while long-term inflation expectations remain anchored, a rate move in June should be viewed as a precautionary “insurance hike.” Moreover, fellow ECB member Gediminas Simkus pointed out that inflation expectations currently mirror levels seen four years ago. He strongly emphasized the critical need for the central bank to react in a timely manner to prevent further price pressures from cementing.

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Australia Q1 GDP misses expectations: What 0.3% growth means for AUD/USD

Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.3% QoQ in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 compared with the 0.8% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Wednesday. This reading came in weaker than the expectations of 0.5% expansion. The annual first-quarter GDP grew by 2.5%, compared with the 2.6% growth in Q4, while below the market onsensus of a 2.7% increase.

The Australia GDP report came in worse than anticipated and drags the Australian Dollar lower in an immediate reaction. The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7175, losing 0.04% on the day. The pair is edges lower from Monday’s closing price at 0.7180.

(This story was corrected on June 3 at 02:00 GMT to say that the annual first-quarter GDP grew by 2.5%, compared with the 2.6% growth in Q4, not the annual fourth-quarter)

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.00%-0.02%-0.05%-0.01%0.03%-0.13%0.03%
EUR-0.01%-0.04%-0.04%-0.01%0.02%-0.15%0.03%
GBP0.02%0.04%0.02%0.02%0.06%-0.12%0.06%
JPY0.05%0.04%-0.02%0.00%0.05%-0.15%0.05%
CAD0.00%0.00%-0.02%-0.01%0.04%-0.13%0.04%
AUD-0.03%-0.02%-0.06%-0.05%-0.04%-0.18%0.02%
NZD0.13%0.15%0.12%0.15%0.13%0.18%0.18%
CHF-0.03%-0.03%-0.06%-0.05%-0.04%-0.02%-0.18%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

What do Australia’s GDP data mean for the Australian Dollar?

Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most important indicators for the Australian Dollar (AUD) because it measures the overall health and growth of the economy. The weaker-than-expected GDP data might lead markets to expect a more dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). However, if risk sentiment improves, this might help limit the Aussie losses as capital flows toward the riskier assets.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD maintains positive outlook

Chart Analysis AUD/USD

In the daily chart, AUD/USD holds a constructive near-term bias as price trades well above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), suggesting the broader upswing remains supported despite recent consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 keeps a neutral-to-positive tone, hinting that bullish momentum is modest but still intact rather than overstretched.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day EMA near 0.7038, where a deeper pullback could look to re-engage dip-buying interest while that level holds. With no nearby resistance markers from the current dataset, traders may instead focus on price behavior and momentum shifts around the 0.7178 area to gauge whether the pair extends the advance or slips back toward its underlying moving-average floor.

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Australian Dollar holds losses below 0.7200 after weaker GDP data, US-Iran tensions

  • AUD/USD softens to near 0.7180 in. Wednesday’s early Asian session. 
  • Australian GDP grew 0.3% QoQ in Q1 of 2026, weaker than expected. 
  • US forces conduct strikes after Iran’s attack, CENTCOM said. 

The AUD/USD pair declines to around 0.7180 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) following a downbeat domestic Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. Traders will closely monitor the US May employment data, which will be released on Friday. 

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday showed that the Australian economy grew 0.3% QoQ in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, compared to the 0.8% growth in Q4. This reading came in weaker than the 0.5% expansion expected. Meanwhile, the annual first-quarter GDP expanded by 2.5%, compared with the 2.6% growth in Q4, below the market consensus of a 2.7% increase.

The Aussie attracts some sellers in an immediate reaction to the downbeat economic data, as it might prompt markets to expect a more dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Elsewhere, China’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved to 54.4 in May, up from 52.6 in the previous reading, according to RatingDog on Wednesday. This figure came in stronger than the market expectations of 52.3.

Broader geopolitical uncertainties might keep traders on edge and underpin a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback. The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Tuesday that it had intercepted and defeated a series of Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting regional neighbors, including Kuwait and Bahrain, while also carrying out self-defence strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island, per ABC News.

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New Zealand Dollar firms on upbeat China PMI; snaps two day losing streak vs USD

  • NZD/USD attracts some buyers on Wednesday amid a combination of supporting factors.
  • China’s upbeat Services PMI and RBNZ’s hawkish shift benefit the Kiwi amid a softer USD.
  • Geopolitical uncertainties could limit deeper USD losses and cap further gains for the pair.

The NZD/USD pair gains some positive traction following the better-than-expected release of China’s Services PMI and climbs to the 0.5935 region during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices, for now, seem to have snapped a two-day losing streak, though the upside potential seems limited amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties.

The latest data published by RatingDog showed that China’s Services PMI climbed to 54.4 in May from 52.6 in the previous month, comfortably surpassing consensus estimates for a reading of 52.3. This also marks the fastest pace of expansion in three months, which, in turn, provides a modest lift to antipodean currencies, including the Kiwi. Apart from this, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) abrupt hawkish shift and a subdued US Dollar (USD) demand offer some support to the NZD/USD pair.

In fact, the RBNZ’s forecast strongly projects a 25 basis points (bps) rate increase at the upcoming July 8 meeting and indicated that the OCR could reach roughly 2.85% by the end of this year, implying up to three rate hikes. In contrast, traders are currently pricing in just over a 50% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise borrowing costs once by the end of this year. This, along with mixed signals over US-Iran peace talks, undermines the USD and contributes to the NZD/USD pair’s intraday gains.

In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, ABC News reported on Tuesday that US forces carried out self-defence strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island and intercepted a series of Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting regional neighbors. Adding to this, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Washington will not remove sanctions on Iran in exchange for a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, adding that any sanctions relief is conditioned on Iran giving up enriched uranium.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump announced the open-ended extension of the ceasefire and the continuation of a US blockade until negotiations are concluded one way or the other. This keeps geopolitical risk premium in play, which might continue to act as a tailwind for the USD and keep a lid on the NZD/USD pair. Traders now look forward to the release of the US ADP report on private-sector employment and ISM Services PMI for some impetus later during the North American session.