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US Dollar Index remains below 100.00 as Trump’s remarks improve risk appetite

  • US Dollar Index declines as safe-haven demand fades amid growing optimism over easing Middle East tensions.
  • Trump said that the US may withdraw from the Iran conflict within two to three weeks.
  • Fed’s Powell said long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its losses for the second successive day and hovering around 99.80 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

The Greenback weakens amid fading safe-haven demand amid a moderation in Middle East tensions. US President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that the United States (US) would be “leaving very soon” from the Iran war, noting that a withdrawal could take place within two to three weeks. The comments reinforce earlier remarks suggesting that US strategic objectives have largely been fulfilled, raising expectations of a relatively swift resolution to the conflict.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed a willingness to de-escalate regional tensions if specific guarantees are met. However, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi took a firmer stance, asserting that Tehran is not seeking a temporary ceasefire but rather a complete termination of the war. He stressed the need for binding assurances against future aggression as well as compensation for damages, highlighting lingering uncertainty around the conflict’s resolution.

Moreover, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said earlier that long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, easing concerns that higher energy prices will quickly lift inflation and reduce the urgency for policy action.

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USD/CAD rises to fresh three-month highs despite softer US Dollar

  • USD/CAD rises to fresh three-month highs despite a softer US Dollar.
  • Canada’s GDP signals a soft start to the year, with a modest rebound expected in February.
  • US Dollar eases from multi-month highs as traders reassess risk sentiment.

USD/CAD edges higher on Tuesday, with the Canadian Dollar (CAD) extending its decline against the US Dollar (USD) for a seventh consecutive day, even as the Greenback eases. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3960, hovering near its highest level since December 2025.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading near 100.17, pulling back after touching fresh ten-month highs of 100.64 earlier in the day.

The pullback in the US Dollar appears largely technical, while some easing in geopolitical risk sentiment is also weighing on demand after The Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

However, geopolitical risks remain elevated. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that it could target US companies in the region starting April 1 in retaliation for recent attacks.

The Loonie has remained under sustained pressure since the US-Israel war with Iran erupted, pushing energy prices sharply higher. While Canada is a net Oil exporter, persistent downside pressure on the CAD reflects growing concerns that elevated energy costs could weigh on domestic demand and slow broader economic growth.

Adding to the cautious tone, Canada’s January Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 0.1% MoM, slightly above expectations for a flat reading, though it marked a slowdown from the previous 0.2% expansion, pointing to soft underlying economic momentum at the start of the year.

However, preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP rose by 0.2% in February, indicating a modest pickup in activity and keeping growth broadly in line with the Bank of Canada’s 1.8% projection outlined in its January Monetary Policy Report.

Meanwhile, traders are increasingly pricing in at least two Bank of Canada (BoC) rate hikes by year-end amid oil-driven inflation pressures. However, persistent labour market headwinds and contained underlying inflation suggest the Bank could remain patient, with rate hikes likely only if Oil prices stay elevated for longer.

In the United States, economic data released on Tuesday showed that JOLTS Job Openings fell to 6.882 million in February from 7.24 million in January, slightly below expectations of 6.92 million.

US Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose to 91.8 in March, beating forecasts of 87.9 and improving from 91 in February.

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Euro Drops Over 2% in March as Middle East Tensions Weigh

The euro closed March below $1.15, nearing its lowest point in nearly two weeks, after a volatile month marked by escalating tensions in the Middle East. The common currency lost over 2% against the dollar as traders assessed the economic impact of the deepening conflict. Adding to the uncertainty, a Wall Street Journal report revealed that US President Donald Trump had signaled a potential end to the US military campaign against Iran, even if the critical Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked. Soaring oil prices fueled inflation across Europe, prompting markets to drastically revise their expectations for the European Central Bank’s policy.

Investors now anticipate at least two interest rate hikes in 2026, abandoning earlier forecasts of a 40% chance of a rate cut. While French central bank chief François Villeroy de Galhau reaffirmed the ECB’s commitment to curbing energy-driven inflation, he cautioned that it was “too early” to specify the timing of any rate adjustments.

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Offshore Yuan Gains on Upbeat PMI Data

The offshore yuan edged higher to around 6.91 per dollar on Tuesday, extending modest gains from the previous session, supported by the unexpectedly strong return of expansion in PMI data. Official figures showed composite PMI rising to a three-month high of 50.5 in March 2026, signaling renewed growth across both sub-sectors.

The manufacturing PMI rose to a one-year high of 50.4, while the non-manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1, supported by government stimulus, strong holiday spending, and solid exports despite global supply chain disruptions and volatile energy markets. However, while the Chinese policymakers have repeatedly emphasized the need to pivot the economy toward domestic consumption and reduce reliance on external demand, geopolitical risks, such as the ongoing Middle East war, could weigh on business activity in the coming months. The yuan is still on track for a monthly decline, as the US dollar continues to benefit from safe-haven demand amid geopolitical turbulence.

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U.S Dollar Index (DXY) eases from YTD peak, trades below 100.50 on Iran de-escalation hopes

  • DXY attracts some sellers following a modest Asian session rise to a fresh YTD top.
  • Trump is reportedly open to ending the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Inflation concerns and rising Fed rate hike bets should help limit losses for the USD.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, retreated from its highest level since May 2025, touched during the Asian session this Tuesday, snapping a five-day winning streak. The index, however, lacks follow-through selling amid contrasting headlines over peace talks to end the war in the Middle East and currently trades around the 100.40-100.45 region, down less than 0.10% for the day.

The Wall Street Journal ​reported ​on Monday that US President Donald Trump is willing to end ​the military ​campaign against Iran even if the ​Strait of ​Hormuz remains largely closed. The headlines trigger a turnaround in the global risk sentiment, which, in turn, is seen undermining the safe-haven USD. Furthermore, a corrective pullback in Crude Oil prices helps ease inflationary concerns and keep US Treasury bond yields on the defensive, turning out to be another factor weighing on the Greenback.

Meanwhile, Trump issued a stark warning that the US could launch massive strikes on Iran’s key energy infrastructure if a deal is not reached soon and if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened to commercial traffic. Moreover, Iran has signaled reluctance to engage in direct negotiations with the US, highlighting fragile diplomatic progress. Adding to this, the US is still deploying additional troops and assets to the region, fueling uncertainty about a quick de-escalation of tensions in the region.

This should act as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices, which keeps inflation risks and bets for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in play. The hawkish outlook, in turn, should help limit deeper losses for the USD and warrants some caution before confirming that the index has topped out in the near term. Traders now look to the US economic data – JOLTS Job Openings and the Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index, for a fresh impetus later during the North American session.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.06%-0.14%-0.03%0.03%-0.01%0.03%-0.12%
EUR0.06%-0.07%0.05%0.13%0.08%0.12%-0.03%
GBP0.14%0.07%0.13%0.21%0.16%0.20%0.05%
JPY0.03%-0.05%-0.13%0.06%0.02%0.05%-0.08%
CAD-0.03%-0.13%-0.21%-0.06%-0.04%-0.00%-0.15%
AUD0.00%-0.08%-0.16%-0.02%0.04%0.05%-0.11%
NZD-0.03%-0.12%-0.20%-0.05%0.00%-0.05%-0.16%
CHF0.12%0.03%-0.05%0.08%0.15%0.11%0.16%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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AUD/USD Price – Consolidates around 0.6850 as bears await break below 100-day SMA

  • AUD/USD enters a bearish consolidation phase near a two-month low set on Monday.
  • The hawkish RBA Minutes and Iran de-escalation hopes offer some support to the pair.
  • The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bears and backs the case for deeper losses.

The AUD/USD pair seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses during the Asian session on Tuesday and consolidates its recent losses registered over the past week or so, to its lowest level in over two months, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around mid-0.6800s, nearly unchanged for the day, amid mixed fundamental cues.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) draws some support from the hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting Minutes, showing that board members agreed further tightening would likely be needed. Adding to this, reviving hopes for a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East boosts investors’ confidence, prompting a modest US Dollar (USD) pullback from the year-to-date and further benefiting the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices find some support near the rising 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around the 0.6820 area, which tempers the downside. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays below its signal line in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips toward 36, both reinforcing fading bullish momentum and favoring further corrective pressure.

The 100-day SMA is closely followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-March move higher, around the 0.6800 round figure, which should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. Some follow-through selling below the recent lows in the 0.6880–0.6850 region would turn the focus toward the 61.8% Fibo. level at 0.6713. A clear break under 0.6713 would open the path toward the 78.6% level at 0.6586 and signal a deeper fall.

On the flip side, the initial resistance emerges at the 50% retracement at 0.6803, now acting as a nearby pivot, with stronger resistance at the 38.2% Fibo. level at 0.6892. A sustained recovery above 0.6892 would expose the 23.6% retracement at 0.7003, where sellers previously capped advances. Nevertheless, the near-term bias is mildly bearish as the AUD/USD pair holds well below the 23.6% Fibo. retracement near the 0.7000 psychological mark.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD daily chart

Chart Analysis AUD/USD
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USD/CHF struggles to extent winning streak on de-escalation in Middle East conflicts

  • USD/CHF edges down to near 0.7985 as the US Dollar faces slight selling pressure.
  • A fresh de-escalation in the Middle East war has diminished the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar.
  • US President Trump is willing for peace with Iran without the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The USD/CHF pair ticks lower to near 0.7985 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, struggling to extend its five-day winning streak, as the US Dollar (USD) faces slight selling pressure on reports that United States (US) President Donald Trump is willing to make peace with Iran without forcing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades subduedly around 100.40.

Earlier in the day, a report by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) showed that US President Trump is ready for peace with Iran, as Washington has cripped its military infrastructure. Trump added that Washington would pursue diplomatic ways for the Hormuz reopening, as a forceful way to reopen the waterways would stretch the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks.

US President Trump’s call for a truce has improved the risk appetite of investors, resulting in a strong demand for riskier assets across the world. S&P 500 futures trade almost 1% higher above 6,400, as of writing.

A fresh de-escalation in Middle East conflicts has also resulted in a sharp correction in the oil price, which could weigh on hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets that were accelerated due to higher energy prices-led de-anchored inflation expectations.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) trades marginally higher against a majority of its currency peers. Broadly the Swiss currency has been under pressure as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) expressed, in the monetary policy announcement this month, readiness to intervene against excessive appreciation in the CHF.

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USD/JPY Price – Bulls struggle below 160.00 amid intervention fears, softer USD

  • USD/JPY faces rejection ahead of the 160.00 psychological mark amid a modest USD downtick.
  • Intervention fears further benefit the JPY and contribute to capping the upside for spot prices.
  • The technical setup favors a bullish outlook amid reduced BoJ rate hike bets and geopolitical uncertainties.

The USD/JPY pair attracts fresh sellers following a modest Asian session uptick to the 160.00 neighborhood on Tuesday, though it manages to hold above the previous day’s swing low. Spot prices currently trade around the 159.70-159.75 region, unchanged for the day, as traders seem reluctant amid mixed fundamental cues.

Against the backdrop of economic concerns stemming from the Iran war, softer Tokyo consumer inflation figures temper bets for an immediate policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This, in turn, undermines the Japanese Yen (JPY) and supports the USD/JPY pair. However, hopes for a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and cap spot prices amid JPY intervention fears.

From a technical perspective, the near-term tone stays mildly bullish as the USD/JPY pair holds well above the rising 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the broader uptrend intact despite the recent hesitation above the 160.00 psychological mark. Furthermore, the lack of follow-through selling favors bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has flattened around the zero line after losing upside traction, suggesting fading bullish momentum rather than a clear reversal. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 59 remains in positive territory without overbought signals, which validates the positive outlook and supports a bias for dip-buying while momentum consolidates.

The aforementioned structure favors renewed tests of 160.30, the recent swing high, followed by a higher barrier at 161.00, where a breakout would reopen the path toward fresh cycle highs. On the downside, immediate support aligns at 159.00, with a deeper floor at 158.40 that guarded prior pullbacks. A daily close below the latter would expose 157.70 as the next downside level for the USD/JPY pair.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY daily chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY