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AUD/JPY Price Weakens to near 113.50, but broader uptrend remains intact

  • AUD/JPY drifts lower to near 113.50 in Friday’s early European session. 
  • Surprise rise in Australia’s Unemployment Rate will give RBA more reason to delay further rate hike at the June meeting. 
  • The constructive outlook of the cross prevails above the 100-day EMA, with neutral-to-mildly bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 113.65; the initial support level to watch is 112.50. 

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 113.50 during the early European session on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) softens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as markets slash the chance of more interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) after a surprise rise in the jobless rate. 

Australia’s Unemployment Rate jumped to 4.5% in April from 4.3% in March, the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday. This reading registered the highest in about four and a half years. The report will provide the Australian central bank with more reason to hold off on a fourth rate hike at its next meeting in June, which could weigh on the Aussie. 

The probability of a rate hike at the next meeting dropped to just 3%, from 13% before the release of the employment report, according to financial market pricing provided by Westpac.

On the other hand, softer Japanese inflation data could weigh on the JPY and act as a tailwind for the cross. Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.4% YoY in April, compared to 1.5% in March, the Japan Statistics Bureau revealed on Friday. 

Meanwhile, Japan’s core CPI climbed by 1.4% YoY in April, marking the slowest annual pace in four years.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds comfortably above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 110.70, keeping the broader bias constructive despite the latest pullback from recent highs. Price is now trading just under the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day SMA basis line, suggesting topside momentum has slowed but not broken, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 51 hints at neutral-to-mildly positive momentum rather than overbought conditions.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band around 113.65, with a break higher opening the way toward the May 14 high of 114.66. The next hurdle is seen at the upper Bollinger band near 114.83. On the downside, initial support emerges at the lower Bollinger band around 112.50, ahead of the April 13 low of 111.66. The key trend support is located at the 100-day SMA near 110.70, where buyers would be expected to defend the prevailing uptrend on deeper pullbacks.

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Currency Talk – EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD

Key takeaways

  • What is the technical outlook for EURUSD, USDCHF and USDCAD?

EURUSD EURUSD prices have recently broken below the 1:1 uptrend, whose lower boundary was at 1.1650. According to the Overbalance methodology, this paves the way for the downtrend to extend, potentially as far as the low at 1.1420. Conversely, for a return to an uptrend, the price would first need to move back above the 1.1650 level, and ideally also break through the 1.1720 level, where the upper limit of the local 1:1 downtrend pattern is located.

EURUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation USDCHF The USDCHF remains in a long-term downtrend. The price rebounded from a key resistance level at the end of March, leading to a decline of nearly 300 pips. Currently, attention should be paid to a local descending geometric pattern, for which resistance is at the 0.7914 level. Should this level be breached, the price could continue to rise towards the next resistance level at 0.8035. Only a sustained break above this higher level would suggest a shift in the balance of power on the chart. For the time being, however, the base case scenario remains a downtrend.

USDCHF – H4 chart. Source: xStation USDCAD The USDCAD pair shifted sentiment at the start of May, and since then we have seen a local uptrend, supported by a green 1:1 bullish pattern. Should a correction occur, the key support level remains at 1.3723. A break below this level could open the way for a decline towards 1.3630, where the polarity of the previously negated bearish pattern, marked in red, is located.

USDCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

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AUD/USD – Picks up above 0.7120 after finding support in the 0.7100 area

  • AUD/USD holds above 0.7100 after falling from 0.7174 highs on Wednesday.
  • An unexpected rise in Australian unemployment adds to the case for an RBA rate pause.
  • The pair is trading in a triangle pattern, with a bearish outcome favoured.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) gives away gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as soft Australian employment data cemented hopes that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will take a pause in the coming months after three consecutive rate hikes. The pair trades at 0.7126 at the time of writing, after bouncing from lows near 0.7100, but remains well below Wednesday’s highs, at 0.7174..

Australian unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in April, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, reaching its highest level since 2021, against expectations of a steady 4.3% rate. The jump in the jobless rate was due to an unexpected decline in net employment, which fell by 18.6K against the 17.5K increase expected.

Aussie’s weakness, however, is being tamed by a mild improvement in market sentiment as US President Donald Trump affirmed that Washington and Tehran would be in the final stages of a peace deal.

Technical Analysis: The pair is forming a small triangle pattern

AUD/USD Chart Analysis


AUD/USD trades at the lower band of the monthly trading range, with price action forming ang a small triangle pattern. Triangles are considered continuation patterns, and, in this case, would anticipate a bearish outcome.

Momentum indicators, in the 4-hour chart, are mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains capped below the 50 line, highlighting a mild bearish pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned marginally positive, hinting that bullish momentum is attempting to rebuild above recent lows.

Initial support is seen at the uptrend line around 0.7108, with additional protection emerging at the 0.7080 area (April 14, May 10 lows). A break below this band would expose an intraday support area at 0.7030.

Rallies, on the contrary, are likely to be tested in the area between the triangle top, near 0.7160, and Wednesday’s high, at the mentioned 0.7174 level. Further up, Monday’s high, at 0.7185, will also challenge bulls ahead of a previous support area, near 0.7215.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.01%-0.00%0.06%0.11%0.38%0.19%-0.02%
EUR0.00%-0.00%0.09%0.10%0.38%0.15%-0.02%
GBP0.00%0.00%0.09%0.11%0.40%0.17%-0.02%
JPY-0.06%-0.09%-0.09%0.02%0.33%0.04%-0.09%
CAD-0.11%-0.10%-0.11%-0.02%0.31%0.07%-0.14%
AUD-0.38%-0.38%-0.40%-0.33%-0.31%-0.23%-0.44%
NZD-0.19%-0.15%-0.17%-0.04%-0.07%0.23%-0.20%
CHF0.02%0.02%0.02%0.09%0.14%0.44%0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

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Rupee Finds Relief as Oil Prices Ease

The Indian rupee hovered near 96.4 per dollar, pausing losses after briefly crossing the 97-per-dollar mark for the first time. Softer oil prices offered temporary relief as Brent crude fell more than 5% to near $105 per barrel, while the US 10-year Treasury yield slipped below 4.60%, improving market sentiment. The rupee had remained under pressure, falling nearly 2.5% over nine sessions amid strong dollar demand, rising US yields, and heavy foreign fund outflows. Meanwhile, the central bank has already announced a $5 billion dollar-rupee swap auction scheduled for May 26. The Reserve Bank of India is also reportedly considering measures to stabilize the rupee, including a possible rate hike, additional swap auctions, and schemes to attract foreign currency inflows from non-resident Indians, which officials estimate could bring in up to $50 billion. Markets are now focused on the RBI’s June 3–5 policy meeting for signals on further support measures.

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NZD weakens despite stronger Trade Balance data

  • NZD/USD falls despite a record-high NZD 1.92 billion April Trade Surplus that beat market expectations.
  • The RBNZ is expected to remain cautious on tightening to avoid choking off a fragile recovery following a recent recession.
  • FOMC April Meeting Minutes indicated that the Fed may raise interest rates if inflation stays stubbornly above their 2% target.

NZD/USD depreciates after registering 0.62% gains in the previous day, trading around 0.5860 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) may regain its ground against the US Dollar as Statistics New Zealand reported that the country’s Trade Surplus widened sharply to a record high of NZD 1.92 billion month-over-month (MoM) in April, up from NZD 0.43 billion in March. This stellar performance comfortably beat market expectations of a much smaller NZD 0.98 billion surplus.

The record-breaking surplus was driven by a powerful surge in outbound shipments, with exports rising to an all-time high of NZD 8.6 billion. In contrast, annual imports declined to NZD 6.7 billion. This trade imbalance underscores highly resilient external demand for New Zealand’s goods, offering a buffer against broader global geopolitical uncertainties.

Despite the strong export performance, the domestic economic picture remains mixed, which could limit the NZD’s upside. Recent indicators point to softening economic momentum at home, prompting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to maintain a cautious stance regarding further policy tightening. Because the domestic economy has only recently emerged from a recession and continues to operate with significant spare capacity, policymakers are hesitant to choke off the fragile recovery.

The NZD/USD pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground amid increased risk aversion, which could be attributed to United States (US)-Iran uncertainty and hawkish monetary policy signals.

Traders adopt caution due to tense United States (US)-Iran peace negotiations against renewed threats to the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. A Bloomberg report on Wednesday stated that US President Donald Trump said that negotiations with Iran were in their final stages. This raised market expectations that the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen.

However, President Trump also reiterated to resume military actions within days if Iran rejects his terms. In response, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian struck a defiant tone on the social media platform X, stating that Tehran has no intention of capitulating and calling any attempt to force a surrender through coercion “nothing more than an illusion.”

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes for the April meeting, released on Wednesday, indicated that a majority of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials warned that the central bank would likely need to consider raising interest rates if inflation remains persistently above their 2% target. The minutes underscored deepening concerns within the Fed regarding inflation risks driven by the ongoing geopolitical conflict.

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EUR/USD Consolidates above 1.1600 as Iran risks, hawkish Fed support USD

  • EUR/USD bulls seem hesitant as geopolitical uncertainties and Fed rate hike bets underpin the USD.
  • The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful downfall.
  • A sustained strength beyond the 50% Fibo. is needed to negate the near-term negative outlook.

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s bounce from the 1.1585-1.1580 region, or its lowest level since April 7, and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices, however, manage to hold above the 1.1600 mark as traders await further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis.

Despite renewed hopes for a de-escalation in the Iran conflict, investors remain skeptical about a US-Iran peace deal amid major disagreements over Tehran’s nuclear program and a standoff over the critical Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, hawkish FOMC Minutes reaffirmed bets for an interest rate hike in 2026, which helps limit the US Dollar’s (USD) corrective pullback from a six-week low and acts as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices maintain a bearish near-term bias beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April upswing. Adding to this, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the low-40s, hinting at subdued upside momentum. However, the overnight resilience below the 61.8% Fibo. level warrants some caution for the EUR/USD bears.

Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) (12, 26, close, 9) stabilizes slightly above the zero line with modest positive readings. This suggests that recent downside pressure is easing but not yet reversing the broader capped tone. Hence, any subsequent slide might continue to find support at the 61.8% Fibo. around 1.1591; a break there would expose the 78.6% level at 1.1522 ahead of the structural floor near 1.1433.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50.0% retracement at 1.1640, followed by the 38.2% Fibo. near 1.1689, with the 200-period SMA at 1.1712 and the 23.6% retracement at 1.1749 reinforcing a dense supply zone higher up.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.01%-0.80%0.14%0.08%0.31%-0.31%0.03%
EUR0.01%-0.81%0.22%0.08%0.30%-0.24%0.01%
GBP0.80%0.81%0.98%0.89%1.12%0.57%0.81%
JPY-0.14%-0.22%-0.98%-0.12%0.09%-0.51%-0.16%
CAD-0.08%-0.08%-0.89%0.12%0.23%-0.39%-0.10%
AUD-0.31%-0.30%-1.12%-0.09%-0.23%-0.54%-0.20%
NZD0.31%0.24%-0.57%0.51%0.39%0.54%0.23%
CHF-0.03%-0.01%-0.81%0.16%0.10%0.20%-0.23%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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CHF declines as US Dollar advances on US-Iran uncertainty

  • USD/CHF rises as a hawkish Fed outlook and complex geopolitical developments supported the US Dollar.
  • Trump stated US-Iran talks are in final stages, but also warned of military action within days if Iran rejects terms.
  • Traders will likely observe the Q1 Swiss Industrial Production data later in the day.

USD/CHF edges higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7870 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair appreciated as the US Dollar (USD) maintains its footing, driven by a complex mix of geopolitical developments and hawkish monetary policy signals.

Traders are currently weighing the economic implications of tense United States (US)-Iran peace negotiations against renewed threats to the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. Optimism initially surfaced following a Bloomberg report on Wednesday, which quoted US President Donald Trump stating that negotiations with Iran were in their final stages. This raised market expectations that the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen.

Adding to the market’s caution, the geopolitical outlook turned volatile again as President Trump pledged to resume military actions within days if Iran rejects his terms. In response, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian struck a defiant tone on the social media platform X, stating that Tehran has no intention of capitulating and calling any attempt to force a surrender through coercion “nothing more than an illusion.”

However, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes for the April meeting were released on Wednesday, indicating a majority of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials warned that the central bank would likely need to consider raising interest rates if inflation remains persistently above their 2% target. The minutes underscored deepening concerns within the Fed regarding inflation risks driven by the ongoing geopolitical conflict.

On the Swiss side, preliminary data released on Monday showed that the domestic economy expanded by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of the year, accelerating from the 0.2% growth recorded in the previous period. This marked Switzerland’s strongest quarterly performance in a year, signaling a steady economic recovery. Looking ahead, market participants are shifting their focus to the first-quarter 2026 Swiss Industrial Production data due later in the day.

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USD/JPY Trades flat near 159.00 as investors seek fresh developments on Iran war

  • USD/JPY flattens around 159.00 in countdown to US-Iran deal announcement.
  • US President Trump said that Washington is in final stages over deal with Iran.
  • 10-year JGB yields remain firm due to growing Japan fiscal worries.

The USD/JPY pair trades calmly around 159.00 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The pair turns sideways as investors await fresh developments regarding negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran, after President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday that talks are in “final stages”.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 99.20. The DXY’s rally hit pause on Wednesday after posting a fresh six-week high at 99.47, following US President Trump expressing confidence that a deal with Iran would be finalized soon.

We’re in the final stages of Iran. We’ll see what happens. Either have a deal or we’re going to do some things that are a little bit nasty, but hopefully that won’t happen,” Trump said, Bloomberg reported.

The optimism over the US-Iran, which resulted in a sharp decline in oil prices, has also slightly diminished expectations supporting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike interest rates this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike this year have cooled down to 51% from 61.3% seen on Tuesday. Still, there is a sharp turnaround from two interest rate cuts anticipated before the Middle East war started.

In Japan, the announcement of an extra budget by Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi, which aims to offset the impact of the Middle East situation has raised fiscal concerns. 10-year Japan Government Bond (JGB) yields are up 0.11% to near 2.77%, close to its multi-decade high of 2.81% posted on Tuesday.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY trades almost flat at around 159.00 at the press time. The pair holds a modest bullish bias as it remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 158.37.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 55 points to neutral-to-positive momentum, hinting that buyers still have the upper hand while avoiding overbought conditions.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA near 158.37, where a daily close below would weaken the constructive tone and open the door to a deeper corrective slide towards the May 14 low of 157.31. Looking up, the pair aims to revisit the April 30 high of 160.73.