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USD/CNH Price Forecast: More downside likely below 6.7500

  • USD/CNH trades marginally lower to near 6.7750 as the US Dollar edges down.
  • China’s CPI remains steady at 1.2% YoY in May, misses 1.3% estimates.
  • Investors await the US inflation data for May.

The USD/CNH pair trades slightly lower to near 6.7750 during the early European trading session on Wednesday. The pair faces selling pressure due to continued outperformance by the Chinese Yuan (CNY), being a trade surplus economy.

On Tuesday, China’s Trade Balance data for May also came in stronger than projected. Trade Balance arrived at $105.43 Billion, higher than the $92.1 Billion estimate and the previous reading of $84.82 Billion. Imports grew strongly by 27.4%, while they were anticipated to rise moderately by 25% vs. the prior release of 25.3%. While Exports rose 19.4% against expectations of 15% and the previous release of 14.1%.

Meanwhile, China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May has remained steady at an annualized pace of 1.2%, while it was expected to grow at a faster pace of 1.3%.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.12% lower to near 99.87 ahead of the United States (US) CPI data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US headline inflation is expected to come in higher at 4.2% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 3.8% in April.

USD/CNH technical analysis

USD/CNH trades lower at around 6.7763, extending the downside bias as spot holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 6.7867. The pair trading below this short-term average suggests sellers retain control, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 42 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at lingering bearish momentum rather than an oversold condition.

On the topside, immediate resistance is now aligned with the 20-day EMA at 6.7867, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease current downside pressure and open the way for a more sustained recovery. On the downside, the pair could slide further towards 6.7500 if it falls below the June 2 low at 6.7580.

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British Pound gains ground to near 1.3400 ahead of US CPI release

  • GBP/USD gains traction to near 1.3390 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
  • Iranian officials warned Gulf states have a “legal and moral responsibility” to prevent US and Israeli strikes. 
  • The US May CPI inflation report will take center stage on Wednesday. 

The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3390 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Markets might turn cautious later in the day ahead of the US May Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report. On Friday, the monthly UK Gross Domestic Product data will be in the spotlight. 

Financial markets had expected the Bank of England (BoE) to cut interest rates twice this year to 3.25%. Since the US-Iran war began, the situation has reversed, and now a rise of 25 basis points (bpd) before December is projected, according to CNBC.

Nonetheless, the potential upside for the British Pound (GBP) might be limited as renewed tensions in the Middle East weigh on the riskier assets. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Wednesday warned that its neighbors in the Gulf have a “legal and moral responsibility” to prevent American and Israeli strikes. 

This statement came as the US launched retaliatory strikes against Iran on Tuesday in what it called a proportional response to the shooting down of a US helicopter gunship near the Strait of Hormuz a day earlier. 

The US CPI inflation report will be closely watched as it could give some hints about the US interest rate path. If the reports show hotter-than-expected outcomes, this could lead traders to price in a higher probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates, which would provide some support to the USD against the GBP. 

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Offshore Yuan Remains Firm

The offshore yuan firmed to around 6.77 per dollar on Wednesday as investors assessed the latest inflation data and their implications for China’s economic outlook. Consumer inflation rose 1.2% annually in May 2026, slightly below expectations of 1.3%, indicating that weak household demand continued to offset inflationary pressures from higher global energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, producer prices climbed to 3.9% from 2.8% in April and marking the highest reading since July 2022. The increase extended the recovery from China’s long producer-price deflation period, driven largely by higher commodity and energy costs. While China has cushioned part of the energy shock through its strategic oil reserves and renewable energy capacity, persistent cost pressures could squeeze corporate profit margins. A broader pass-through to consumer prices could also erode household consumption, although weak domestic demand has so far limited such spillovers.

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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Overall trend appears sideways amid Triangle formation

  • GBP/USD rises to near 1.3375 as the US Dollar corrects sharply.
  • US President Trump sees a total victory over Iran in the next two weeks.
  • Investors await the US CPI data for May and the UK GDP data for April.

The GBP/USD pair trades 0.26% higher at around 1.3375 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Cable gains as the US Dollar (USD) declines amid expectations that the United States (US) could reach a deal with Iran soon.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.12%-0.20%-0.03%-0.14%-0.26%-0.54%-0.20%
EUR0.12%-0.06%0.09%-0.02%-0.11%-0.40%-0.06%
GBP0.20%0.06%0.17%0.06%-0.07%-0.32%0.00%
JPY0.03%-0.09%-0.17%-0.11%-0.22%-0.50%-0.16%
CAD0.14%0.02%-0.06%0.11%-0.11%-0.37%-0.05%
AUD0.26%0.11%0.07%0.22%0.11%-0.26%0.06%
NZD0.54%0.40%0.32%0.50%0.37%0.26%0.32%
CHF0.20%0.06%-0.01%0.16%0.05%-0.06%-0.32%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.17% lower to near 99.83.

On late Monday, US President Donald Trump expressed confidence that a “total victory” on Iran can be announced in two weeks, adding it would lead to a sharp decline in oil prices. The statement from Trump came after Iran agreed to halt attacking the Israeli territory, which led to a sharp decline in oil prices.

The US Dollar has outperformed in the past few months as elevated oil prices due to the energy supply crisis prompted the US inflation and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets.

The appeal of currencies from economies, such as the United Kingdom (UK), which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, improves when oil prices start falling.

Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May and the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for April, which will be released on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades higher at around 1.3375 at the press time. However, the near-term tone remains bearish as it holds below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at 1.3428. The pair sits between an upward support trend line break around 1.3312 and the reclaimed downward resistance trend line reference at 1.3593, exhibiting a broader sideways trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 42 leans soft, hinting that downside pressure persists even if not yet overstretched.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-EMA around 1.3430, and a sustained break above this barrier would open the way toward the former downtrend resistance line reference near 1.3590. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the prior uptrend support break zone around 1.3301, and a drop below there would expose lower levels. The major support area would be the April 7 low at 1.3217, followed by the March 31 low at 1.3159.

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Australian Dollar picks up amid easing geopolitical tensions, bright data from China

  • AUD/USD hits session highs at 0.7070, although it remains near eight-week lows.
  • Bright Trade Balance data from China has provided a moderate impulse to the Aussie.
  • Markets show some relief as hostilities in the Middle East stop.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) posts moderate gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, regaining some of the ground lost last week, although it remains at its lowest level in nearly two months. News that Israel and Iran halted hostilities has triggered a mild relief rally. At the same time, upbeat Chinese trade data has provided additional support for the Aussie, as China is Australia’s major trading partner.

Data released by the Chinese Government earlier on Tuesday showed that the Asian giant’s trade surplus rose to USD 105.43 billion in May, its highest level since January and well beyond market expectations of USD 92.1 billion. In April, China’s trade surplus amounted to USD 84.82 billion.

China’s exports bloom with the AI rush

In May, exports showed a 19.4% year-over-year (y-o-y) growth, following a 14.1% increase in April, also beating expectations of a 15% increment. Strong demand for chips, amid the sharp increase in AI investment, has been the main driver for May’s surplus, offsetting the negative impact of the energy shock on global demand.

Imports also accelerated, with a 27.4% year-on-year increase in May after 25.3% year-on-year growth in April, suggesting that domestic demand is picking up pace after months of sluggish consumer spending.

Meanwhile, news reporting a pause in the hostilities between Israel and Iran has triggered a moderate pullback in Oil prices, providing a mild risk-appetite. US President Donald Trump affirmed earlier on Tuesday that he might have a proposal for a peace agreement with Iran and showed optimism about an upcoming deal.

In the US, the strong macroeconomic figures released last week, namely Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, have boosted expectations that the Fed will be able to hike interest rates in the second half of the year, if inflationary pressures remain high. In that sense, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, due on Wednesday, will be key to confirm the market’s expectations and is likely to set the US Dollar’s near-term direction.

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Why is the British Pound struggling when the BoE is considering rate hikes?

The British Pound (GBP) is struggling as mounting political uncertainty and deteriorating economic indicators complicate the United Kingdom’s outlook. Ahead of the key Gross Domestic Product (GDP) April data to be released on Friday, financial markets are balancing the risk of an economic contraction against the probability of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE) to rein in energy-driven inflation. 

With internal political friction intensifying due to a high-stakes leadership challenge within the ruling Labour Party, major financial institutions are turning increasingly cautious on the Pound’s near-term trajectory.

GBP/USD daily chart. Source: FXStreet.

Sluggish economic growth and fiscal concerns threaten to drag Pound lower

Macro strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) warn that the combination of a potentially contracting UK economy and stagflationary pressures leaves the British Pound deeply exposed to a downward correction against the US Dollar. They emphasize that while anticipated central bank interventions may try to curb price pressures, structural damage to the UK’s fiscal credibility from potential political reshuffling could rapidly worsen a currency undershoot.

We expect GBP/USD to fall to 1.3100, reflecting a stronger US growth outlook relative to the UK. BOE rate hikes in a sluggish growth, high inflation environment, is not bullish for GBP but should help cushion the downside.

Uncertainty over the next BoE moves

Economists at Societe Generale suggest that any near-term political noise surrounding Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s bid for the Labour leadership will likely yield limited radical change. On the monetary front, they acknowledge that while hawkish voices within the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) are pushing hard for an immediate rate increase, the broader consensus will likely favor a more conservative wait-and-see strategy.

We expect these members [those opting for a rate hike] to remain in the minority and for the BoE to keep rates on hold in June.

Banks anticipate a downward-biased trajectory for the British Pound

The banks anticipate a soft trend for the British Pound. Brown Brothers Harriman maintains an explicitly bearish outlook, forecasting a drop to the 1.3100 mark for the GBP/USD

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Trade of The Day: USD/SEK

Facts:

  • USDSEK is testing the support at 9.3990
  • The main trend from the end of May remains upward
  • The pair is trading above the 100-period moving average from H1 interval

Recommendation: Trade: Long position on USDSEK market price Target: 9.4750 Stop: 9.3740

Opinion:

USDSEK reached a key technical support yesterday which is marked with a lower limit of 1:1 structure. The level is being tested again today and should buyers manage to hold the price above, the main sentiment remains bullish. The support at 9.3990 is also marked by the 100-period exponential moving average from H interval. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as the price sits above the 9.3990, one should expect price to continue the upward move. We recommend going long USDSEK at market price with a target of 9.4750. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 9.3740.

Source: xStation5

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NZD/USD Price – New Zealand Dollar steadies above 0.5800 as neutral bias prevails

  • NZD/USD may find initial support at the rectangle’s lower boundary near 0.5790.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index around 43 suggests waning upside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.
  • The initial barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 0.5853.

NZD/USD gains ground for the second successive day, trading around 0.5810 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the spot price is moving sideways within a rectangle pattern, reflecting a period of market consolidation and indecision.

The NZD/USD pair is maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of price below these short- and medium-term EMAs suggests rallies are likely to be sold, while a soft 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading around 43 hints at waning upside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

The NZD/USD pair may find initial support at the lower boundary of the rectangle around 0.5790, followed by the two-week low of 0.5782, recorded on June 8. A break below this confluence support zone would put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around a six-month low of 0.5681, which was recorded on April 6.

On the upside, the NZD/USD pair may rise toward the primary barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.5853, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.5875. A successful break above these moving averages could support the pair to approach the upper boundary of the rectangle around 0.5990, followed by the three-month high of 0.5995, which was reached on February 29.

Chart Analysis NZD/USD

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

New Zealand Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.02%-0.07%0.05%-0.04%0.00%-0.18%-0.04%
EUR0.02%-0.02%0.09%-0.01%0.07%-0.12%0.01%
GBP0.07%0.02%0.13%0.06%0.06%-0.11%0.04%
JPY-0.05%-0.09%-0.13%-0.08%-0.03%-0.21%-0.08%
CAD0.04%0.01%-0.06%0.08%0.04%-0.12%0.00%
AUD-0.00%-0.07%-0.06%0.03%-0.04%-0.16%-0.04%
NZD0.18%0.12%0.11%0.21%0.12%0.16%0.12%
CHF0.04%-0.01%-0.04%0.08%-0.00%0.04%-0.12%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).