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EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Hovers around 184.00 as near-term bearish bias maintains

  • EUR/JPY may fall toward the 11-week low around 181.87.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 41.75, signaling persistent downside pressure.
  • The primary resistance lies at the nine-day EMA at 184.62.

EUR/JPY steadies after posting a little gain in the previous trading day, hovering around 184.00 during the Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross maintains a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath both the 50-day and nine-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The EUR/JPY cross extends a corrective phase below the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which together reinforce a bearish near-term bias as dynamic resistance overhead.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.75 hovers below the midline, hinting that downside pressure persists but without entering oversold territory, leaving room for further weakness if sellers retain control.

On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may navigate the region around the initial support, around the 11-week low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by a five-month low of 180.81, which was reached on February 12.

The EUR/JPY cross may rebound toward the primary resistance at the nine-day EMA of 184.62, followed by the 50-day EMA of 184.84. A successful break above the short- and medium-term averages would revive the bullish bias and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.05%-0.03%-0.09%-0.07%-0.15%-0.11%-0.03%
EUR0.05%0.00%-0.04%-0.02%-0.10%-0.02%0.04%
GBP0.03%-0.00%-0.04%-0.03%-0.11%-0.03%0.03%
JPY0.09%0.04%0.04%0.03%-0.08%-0.01%0.07%
CAD0.07%0.02%0.03%-0.03%-0.12%-0.04%0.04%
AUD0.15%0.10%0.11%0.08%0.12%0.09%0.14%
NZD0.11%0.02%0.03%0.01%0.04%-0.09%0.06%
CHF0.03%-0.04%-0.03%-0.07%-0.04%-0.14%-0.06%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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NOK surges following Norges Bank’s rate hike

Key takeaways

  • Norges Bank raises interest rates by 25 bp.
  • The key interest rate is up to 4.25%.
  • The move represents the first hike from a major European central bank.
  • EUR/NOK is down by approx. 0.5%

Contrary to most economists’ expectations, Norges Bank decided to raise interest rates by 25 bp, bringing the benchmark rate up to 4.25%. Norges Bank is thus the first major European central bank to decide on such move. Earlier, the ECB, BoE, and Riksbank had opted to hold rates steady. In response to the move, the Norwegian krone strengthened by approx. 0.5% against the benchmark euro, recouping a significant share of yesterday’s losses, which were largely the result of declining energy commodity prices.

Figure: EUR/NOK (2025-2026)

Source: xStation,

07/05/2026 The hike is primarily intended to anchor inflation expectations, especially in light of fairly persistent core inflation, which remained at 3% in March, and still elevated wage growth, which exceeds 4% YoY in many sectors. Officials’ statements lacked clear indications regarding future moves. The meeting was not accompanied by a new interest rate projection. The March one suggested a single rate hike before the end of the year—under current conditions, however, it seems likely that the bank will continue to tighten its monetary policy in the coming months. A rate hike at the June (18/06) meeting is almost fully priced in by the markets. Yet another hike in September is considered a base case scenario.

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Chart of The Day – EUR/USD Higher, but Still a Game of Expectations, Not a Trend

In today’s session, EUR/USD is strengthening around the 1.17 area, but the move is not driven by a single dominant factor. Instead, it reflects a combination of several parallel impulses, including unchanged policy rates from both the Fed and the ECB, improving sentiment linked to potential de-escalation of tensions around Iran, and stronger-than-expected German industrial data. It is important to stress that the current appreciation looks more like a repricing of expectations than a durable shift in underlying fundamentals.

Source: xStation5

What is shaping EUR/USD price action? Fed on hold, but the market is already pricing rate cuts

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, while signalling a gradual slowdown in economic momentum and increasing sensitivity in the labour market. At the same time, inflation in the US is still not fully under control, particularly in services and core inflation, where price pressures remain persistent. Despite this, markets are increasingly pricing in future rate cuts, not as a response to rapidly falling inflation, but rather as a reaction to a potential weakening in economic activity. This scenario reduces the attractiveness of the US dollar and gradually supports EUR/USD through expectations of a narrowing interest rate differential.

The ECB remains cautious, with no automatic path to hikes

The European Central Bank also left rates unchanged, maintaining a cautious and data-dependent communication stance. While some forecasts still allow for further tightening, the dominant view remains one of stabilisation and inflation-driven decisions rather than an aggressive hiking cycle. At the same time, improving real economy data, especially from Germany, is limiting earlier expectations of a deeper slowdown in the euro area, supporting the single currency through the activity channel rather than monetary policy expectations alone.

Geopolitics and hopes for an Iran agreement

Reports of potential de-escalation in tensions surrounding Iran are improving global risk sentiment. A decline in the geopolitical risk premium reduces demand for the US dollar as a traditional safe-haven currency, while benefiting risk-sensitive assets such as the euro. In addition, a potential easing of tensions in the Middle East lowers pressure on energy prices, which in the medium term could reduce inflationary pressures and strengthen expectations of a more accommodative Fed stance.

Germany surprises to the upside, lifting European sentiment

Stronger-than-expected German industrial data is an important element of today’s market picture. Against the backdrop of earlier concerns about stagnation in Europe, this release is helping stabilise perceptions of the euro area. As a result, the euro is increasingly seen not only through the lens of cyclical weakness, but also as a relatively stable alternative to the US dollar, particularly in an environment of shifting monetary policy expectations.

What else is influencing the market in the background

Beyond central bank decisions and macroeconomic data, the key driver remains the pace of change in market expectations regarding future Fed and ECB policy. The market is currently in a repricing phase rather than a full economic cycle shift. This makes EUR/USD particularly sensitive to incoming data and central bank communication that could either confirm or challenge the scenario of faster US easing combined with relatively stable policy in Europe. In such an environment, even moderately positive European data can support the euro in the short term, but the sustainability of the trend will ultimately depend on whether the Fed actually moves towards more decisive monetary easing.

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Trade of The Day – EUR/CHF

Facts:

  • The pair returned below the horizontal resistance area at 0.9220
  • EURCHF is trading below the 100-period exponential moving average from D1 interval

Recommendation: Trade: Short EURCHF at market price Target: 0.8995 Stop: 0.9272

Opinion:

Looking at EURCHF on the D1 interval, one can see a potential downward trend resumption. Following a break above the 1:1 geometry, the pair quickly returned below the upper limit of the aforementioned 1:1 structure. According to the Overbalance methodology, the main trend remains downward. In addition the pair sits below the 100-period moving average from the D1 interval. We recommend going short USDCAD at market price with a target of 0.8995. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 0.9272.

Source: xStation

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Currency Talk – USD/CAD, NZD/USD, EUR/NZD

Key takeaways

  • What is the technical outlook for USDCAD, NZDUSD, and EURNZD?

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analysed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis utilises only the Overbalance methodology, which helps to identify points where a trend may continue or where a reversal may occur. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, assessed solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.

USDCAD

USDCAD prices have been on a downward trend since the beginning of April. The chart shows a 1:1 pattern with a range of around 80 pips. Although the latest pattern has been slightly breached, the price has not exceeded the 127.2% level, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, indicates that the downward trend remains intact. The current correction has stalled around 1.3630, where the upper boundary of the 1:1 pattern is located. Until this level is broken, the scenario of further declines remains in place.

USDCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

NZDUSD

Since 6 April, NZDUSD has been trading within a local uptrend. The lower boundary of the pattern at 0.5840 has recently been tested twice. This level was only slightly breached, but the price failed to return below the polarity of the previously negated downward pattern at 0.5828, which led to the emergence of another upward impulse. According to the Overbalance methodology, the uptrend remains in place, and the key support level remains at 0.5865, derived from the lower boundary of the green 1:1 pattern. The pattern remains valid as it has only been slightly breached but not negated.

NZDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

EURNZD

Since 7 April, the EURNZD has been trading in a downtrend. The price attempted to break through the support level at 1.9969 on several occasions and eventually both broke through it and negated the 1:1 upward trend, confirming the bearish scenario. In the event of a correction, the key short-term resistance remains at 1.9930. If the downward movement continues, the lows from February and March at 1.9540 remain a potential target for selling.

EURNZD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

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USDJPY: another intervention by Japanese authorities, yen gains 1.00%

USDJPY was hit again today by a strong wave of yen buying, with the pair falling from the upper 157.700 area to 155.030. The move is being interpreted as another intervention by Japanese authorities. The timing fits the recent pattern: low liquidity around Japanese holidays and the transition from the Asian to the European session, when official flows can have a greater market impact. At the peak of the move, the yen strengthened by nearly 2%, toward the 155 area — the strongest level since February 24, 2026 — after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned against speculative movements in the FX market.

This is another such intervention following last week’s large-scale operation. At that time, Bank of Japan money market data suggested that Tokyo may have spent around 5.48 trillion yen, or roughly 35 billion USD, to support the yen after USDJPY broke above the 160 level. The key signal for investors is that Japan’s Ministry of Finance is no longer limited to verbal warnings, but is actively attempting to cap USDJPY gains, particularly in the 158–160 zone. At the same time, rapid rebounds following earlier interventions show that these actions are buying time rather than changing the broader trend itself. Levels above 160 were also a critical point during the July 2024 intervention.

The fundamental backdrop remains difficult for the yen: the wide interest rate differential between the US and Japan, Japan’s dependence on energy imports, and geopolitical pressure related to the Strait of Hormuz continue to support the dollar and weaken the yen. The recent improvement in sentiment surrounding a potential US–Iran agreement has helped Tokyo through lower oil prices and a weaker USD, but if this pressure does not continue to ease — or if the Bank of Japan does not adopt a more hawkish stance — investors may continue to support the current weakening trend in JPY.

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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Rallies to June 2022 high, closer to mid-0.7200s on weaker USD

  • AUD/USD attracts strong follow-through buyers amid a combination of supporting factors.
  • US-Iran peace deal hopes and receding hawkish Fed expectations weigh heavily on the USD.
  • The RBA’s hawkish outlook benefits the Aussie and contributes to the positive momentum.

The AUD/USD pair is seen building on the previous day’s bounce from the 0.7135 region, or the weekly low, and gaining strong follow-through positive traction for the second straight day on Wednesday. The momentum lifts spot prices to a fresh high since June 2022, closer to mid-0.7200s, during the Asian session, and is sponsored by a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).

The incoming headlines fuel optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal and boost investors’ confidence, undermining the safe-haven buck and benefiting the risk-sensitive Aussie. Furthermore, sliding Crude Oil prices ease inflationary concerns and temper bets for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This exerts additional pressure on the USD, which, along with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish outlook, contributes to the bid tone surrounding the AUD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices hold a bullish near-term bias following the recent resilience below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The said support is pegged at 0.7145, which now underpins the broader upturn from recent lows. Moreover, a firm Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 65 suggests strong but maturing upside momentum, while the positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hints that buyers still retain control.

This, in turn, suggests that any corrective pullback might still be seen as a buying opportunity near the 100-period EMA on H4, at 0.7145, as the broader structure remains constructive above this zone. A sustained break beneath this moving average would weaken the current bullish tone and open the door to a deeper corrective phase on the four-hour timeframe.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis AUD/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.20%-0.18%-0.06%-0.14%-0.69%-0.75%-0.20%
EUR0.20%0.02%0.15%0.07%-0.48%-0.57%0.00%
GBP0.18%-0.02%0.13%0.06%-0.50%-0.57%0.00%
JPY0.06%-0.15%-0.13%-0.09%-0.64%-0.72%-0.12%
CAD0.14%-0.07%-0.06%0.09%-0.55%-0.62%-0.04%
AUD0.69%0.48%0.50%0.64%0.55%-0.07%0.50%
NZD0.75%0.57%0.57%0.72%0.62%0.07%0.57%
CHF0.20%-0.00%-0.00%0.12%0.04%-0.50%-0.57%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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Trade of The Day – EUR/GBP

Facts: EURGBP bounced off the 1:1 structure at 0.8647 The pair is trading below the 100-period exponential moving average foram H1 interval Recommendation: Trade: Short position on EURGBP at market price Target: 0.8620, 0.8611 Stop Loss: 0.8655

Opinion: EURGBP has been trading in a downward trend recently. Taking a look at the H1 internal, we can see that the pair bounced off the key resistance, signaling a potential bearish trend resumption. The resistance at 0.8647 is marked with the upper limit of 1:1 structure. In addition the price sits below the 100- period moving average. According to the Overbalance strategy, as long as the price sits below the 0.8647 resistance, one should expect the price to continue to fall. Taking this into account, we recommend going short EURGBP at market price with two targets: 0.8620 and 0.8611. We also recommend placing a stop loss at 0.8655. Source: xStation5