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AUD/USD Forecast – Eyes nine-day EMA support near 0.7200

  • AUD/USD may test the 0.7277, the highest since June 2022.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index of 60 indicates resilient bullish momentum without reaching overbought territory.
  • Initial support lies at the nine-day EMA at 0.7214.

AUD/USD loses ground after two days of gains, trading around 0.7240 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair is moving upwards within the ascending channel, suggesting an ongoing bullish bias.

The AUD/USD pair holds a constructive bullish bias as it stays above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This positioning suggests the broader uptrend remains supported.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 60 points to firm but not overextended upside momentum, keeping buyers in near-term control as long as the price defends these moving average floors.

The AUD/USD pair may test the 0.7277, the highest since June 2022, recorded on May 6. A successful break above this level would support the pair to target the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.7460.

On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may test the nine-day EMA at 0.7214, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 0.7200. Further declines would expose the 50-day EMA at 0.7096. A break below the medium-term average would cause the bearish emergence and put downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair to navigate the region around the three-month low of 0.6833, which was recorded on March 30.

AUD/USD: Daily Chart

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.16%0.14%0.17%0.09%0.20%0.14%0.16%
EUR-0.16%-0.03%0.02%-0.10%0.05%-0.04%0.01%
GBP-0.14%0.03%0.02%-0.09%0.05%-0.02%0.02%
JPY-0.17%-0.02%-0.02%-0.11%0.00%-0.05%-0.03%
CAD-0.09%0.10%0.09%0.11%0.12%0.06%0.08%
AUD-0.20%-0.05%-0.05%-0.00%-0.12%-0.06%-0.04%
NZD-0.14%0.04%0.02%0.05%-0.06%0.06%0.02%
CHF-0.16%-0.01%-0.02%0.03%-0.08%0.04%-0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

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Sterling slips from peak as US CPI and UK GDP loom

  • US April CPI on Tuesday is forecast at 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY, with a hotter print likely to weigh on Sterling.
  • Thursday’s UK Q1 GDP, consensus 0.6% QoQ, is the only domestic release with real potential to drive Sterling this week.
  • Iran-US clashes flared again over the weekend, with the Strait of Hormuz shut and global energy supply risk elevated.

Sterling pulled back from a fresh peak near 1.3650 on Monday, easing close to 1.3610 through European trade after the Asian session squeezed the Pound to a new local high. The rejection from the 1.3650 area produced a sharp intraday reversal, with a string of red candles unwinding most of the overnight push and pointing to fading upside momentum ahead of a heavy data week.

The week ahead is a US-heavy affair: Tuesday’s April Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the centerpiece, with consensus penciling in 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY headline alongside a 0.4% MoM, 2.7% YoY core read, in part reflecting the first full month of Iran-conflict energy pass-through. Wednesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) print is forecast hotter again at 0.5% MoM and 4.9% YoY, with Thursday’s Retail Sales penciled at 0.5% MoM. A heavier Federal Reserve speaking calendar bookends each release, with Williams, Goolsbee, Kashkari, Schmid, Hammack, and Barr all scheduled, leaving the US Dollar exposed to two-way risk on every print and every headline. A hotter-than-expected CPI in particular would underline how Strait of Hormuz disruption is feeding through to US prices and tend to weigh on Sterling.

On the UK side, the calendar is thin. Thursday’s release block, headlined by the Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) preliminary print at 0.6% QoQ and 0.8% YoY consensus alongside the March monthly read forecast at minus 0.2% MoM, is the only domestic catalyst with real potential to move Sterling. An upside surprise would help the Pound break free of its consolidation, while a softer set would deepen the stagflation narrative that has built since UK March CPI ran at 3.3% YoY. Bank of England (BoE) commentary from Greene on Monday and Mann on Wednesday will fill the gaps but is unlikely to drive direction. Fresh Iran-US clashes over the weekend, with the Strait of Hormuz still shut and Washington’s reopening proposal awaiting an Iranian response, continue to set the macro tone, while reported internal Labour pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer adds a modest political risk premium on the Pound that a soft GDP print would only widen.

GBP/USD 15-minute chart

Chart Analysis GBP/USD

Technical Analysis

In the fifteen-minute chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3609. The pair holds a mild intraday bullish bias as it sits above the daily open at 1.3584, keeping the latest rebound intact despite the lack of nearby moving average references. However, the Stochastic RSI has recently shifted from overbought extremes toward the lower end of its range, hinting that upside momentum is cooling after the earlier advance.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the daily open level around 1.3584, where buyers may look to defend the broader intraday up-move. A sustained break below this floor would weaken the constructive tone and expose deeper pullbacks, while holding above it would keep the short-term bias tilted to the upside even as momentum indicators stay in a corrective phase.

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3611 with a bullish near-term bias, as spot holds above both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). The pair has extended its advance away from these reclaimed trend filters, suggesting underlying demand remains in control, while the Stochastic RSI around 61 indicates positive but not overstretched momentum, leaving room for further gains if buyers stay in charge.

On the topside, immediate support-turned-reference now comes from the 50-day EMA at 1.3480, followed by the 200-day EMA near 1.3399, which together mark a broader demand band on any corrective pullback. As long as daily closes remain above these EMAs, the technical backdrop would continue to favor dip-buying strategies over a deeper reversal.

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Chart of The Day – GBP/USD

The political crisis surrounding Keir Starmer has become one of the key market drivers for the pound today. The situation is evolving rapidly and is having a direct impact on government bond yields and the value of the pound, with the markets closely monitoring the Prime Minister’s every word. Internal party pressure The scale of Starmer’s problem is best illustrated by a single figure: 42 Labour MPs had already officially called on him to resign by Sunday evening, whilst former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner described the current situation as “Labour’s last chance” to change course.

The emergence of potential challengers, such as Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham, means that the market now views the internal dispute within the Labour Party as a real risk, rather than mere political noise. In his speech on Monday, Starmer focused on several key themes. Firstly, a firm defence of his own position: “I will fight in every internal vote.” Secondly, a political agenda aimed at closer ties with the EU, the nationalisation of British Steel and a new mobility agreement for young people with Europe. The market viewed this speech primarily through the prism of one question: will the Prime Minister stabilise his position sufficiently to halt the sell-off of gilts?

You can watch the UK Prime Minister’s live address here. Source: Sky News, YouTube

Starmer, gilts in pounds

The yield on 10-year gilts rose on Monday morning to 4.954%, an increase of 3 basis points from the previous close, when it stood at 4.904% immediately after Starmer refused to resign on Friday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg say that were it not for the political component, yields would be 10–15 basis points lower. This shows just how much the market has already begun to price in the risk of political instability, rather than solely macroeconomic fundamentals. The UK currently has the highest debt servicing costs of all G7 countries, a consequence of inflation remaining above target and weak economic growth. The situation is further complicated by the economic fallout from the armed conflict in Iran, which has led to higher energy prices and a further weakening of business activity. In such an environment, any political uncertainty acts as a risk multiplier for funds holding gilts.

Implications for the GBP

The pound finds itself in a difficult position, both technically and fundamentally. On the one hand, structural factors such as the Bank of England’s relatively high interest rates compared to the ECB and the marked inflationary divergence from the rest of Europe may continue to support it in the medium term. On the other hand, the political risk premium, which has just begun to be priced into gilt yields, is a factor that directly affects the currency’s valuation: higher bond yields against a backdrop of a weakening government is a scenario that has historically been negative for the pound, as it suggests a lack of a fiscal anchor. If Starmer survives the coming weeks politically and manages to quell the internal rebellion, the risk premium should gradually decline, and the GBP/USD pair could test higher resistance levels once again. An alternative scenario, namely a genuine battle for party leadership, would, however, mean further rises in gilt yields and pressure on the pound, particularly as global markets are now highly sensitive to any signs of political fiscal instability following the experiences of the Truss era. For sterling traders, therefore, today is a test not so much of Starmer himself as of the resilience of the political risk premium that the market has already priced in.

GBP/USD is trading at 1.3608 on the daily chart, within an uptrend that has been in place since the low around 1.22 at the turn of 2024/2025, and the price remains above the anchored VWAP from early 2025, which runs in the 1.31–1.32 region. The volume profile indicates a Point of Control in the 1.3450–1.3480 zone, where a black horizontal line marks a key support level that has been tested repeatedly on both sides. The RSI(14) at 57.17 suggests neutral-bullish momentum with no signs of overbought conditions, which technically leaves room for further gains towards the 1.3800–1.3850 resistance zone, where the price reversed at the 2025 peak.

Today’s speech by Starmer and his political survival are factors that will directly determine the short-term direction: government stability paves the way upwards, whilst an escalation of the crisis and a rise in gilt yields would push the pair back towards the POC zone at 1.3450, and, in the event of a deeper sell-off, even towards the VWAP. Technically, the bulls have the upper hand as long as the price remains above 1.34, and the bears will only regain the initiative after a break below this zone with volume. Source: xStation

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Currency Talk – USDCAD, AUDUSD, EURNZD

Key takeaways

  • What is the technical outlook for USDCAD, AUDUSD and EURNZD?

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analysed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis utilises only the Overbalance methodology, which helps to identify points where a trend may continue or where a reversal may occur. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, assessed solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures. USDCAD USDCAD prices remained in a downtrend throughout April, but in recent days the 1:1 downtrend pattern has been negated at the 1.3630 level, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, may signal a significant upward correction or even a trend reversal. Currently, the key support level remains at 1.3655, where the lower boundary of the local 1:1 pattern is located. As long as the price remains above this level, the bullish scenario remains in place. Conversely, a return below 1.3630, i.e. below the polarity of the previously negated pattern, could once again open the way for further declines.

USDCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation AUDUSD The AUDUSD exchange rate has been on an upward trend since the beginning of April. The key support level for the exchange rate is currently 0.7170. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as the price remains above this level, the upward trend remains in place.

AUDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation EURNZD Since 7 April, the EURNZD has been trading in a downtrend. Should the upward correction extend, the key resistance level remains at 1.9872. As long as the price stays below this level, the bearish scenario remains in place. Conversely, for a return to the uptrend to be considered, the price would need to rise above the 1.9969 level, where the polarity of the previously negated 1:1 upward geometry is located.

EURNZD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

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Euro recovers early losses amid waning hopes of peace in Iran, higher Crude prices

  • EUR/USD picks up to the 1.1775 area but remains within previous ranges below 1.1800.
  • The Euro faltered at Monday’s opening after Trump dismissed Iran’s peace plan.
  • The recent jump in Oil prices is likely to keep Euro bulls in check.

The Euro (EUR) is trading moderately higher against the Dollar (USD), yet moving within previous ranges on Monday. The pair has returned to the upper side of the 1.1700s range, and is trading at 1.1775 at the time of writing after a negative opening, following US President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran’s peace plan.

Trump posted on social media that Tehran’s latest peace proposal was “totally unacceptable”, crushing market hopes of a swift end to the war in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices jumped after the news, with the barrel of Brent returning above $100, which puts the Eurozone’s Crude-importing economies under pressure and undermines the Euro’s upside attempts.

On the macroeconomic front, US Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations on Friday, showing a 115K increase, almost twice the 62K expected. These figures strengthen the case for Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks and ease pressure on the bank to cut interest rates, which provides support to the Greenback.

The economic calendar is thin in the US and Europe on Monday. Later this week, US Consumer Prices Index (CPI) data, due on Tuesday, and US Retail Sales on Thursday, together with Fed speakers throughout the week, will provide the fundamental guidance for the USD. In Europe, Germany’s final consumer inflation data on Tuesday, but above all, Wednesday’s Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde’s speech, will be the highlights of the week.

Technical Analysis: Bulls to be tested at 1.1800

EUR/USD CHART ANALYSIS

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EUR/USD shows a modest bullish bias with momentum readings backing this constructive tone. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index is near 60, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, hinting that buyers retain control.

Bulls, however, are likely to meet significant resistance at the area between 1.1790 and 1.1800 (around April 20, May 6, 8 highs), which, so far, is closing the path to April’s high, in the 1.1850 area. Further up, February’s top, at the 1.1930 area, would come into focus.

On the downside, session lows at the 1.1750 area and Friday’s lows, near 1.1725, are likely to provide some support to a potential bearish reversal, although the key support is at the area between 1.1645 and 1.1675, which contained downside attempts in April.

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EUR/JPY – Tests 50-day EMA barrier near 185.00

  • EUR/JPY is challenging immediate resistance at the 50-day EMA of 184.86.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index around 47 indicates momentum has eased toward neutral territory.
  • The primary barrier lies at the nine-day EMA at 184.75.

EUR/JPY extends its winning streak for the third successive day, trading around 184.80 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross consolidating in a neutral tone as it holds just above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but remains capped by the 50-day EMA.

This tight EMA squeeze hints at an indecisive market after the recent pullback, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 47 suggests momentum has cooled toward neutral rather than signaling outright oversold conditions.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross is testing the immediate resistance at the 50-day EMA of 184.86. A successful break above the medium-term averages would support the bullish momentum and lead the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

The EUR/JPY cross is positioned slightly above the nine-day EMA at 184.75. A sustained break below the short-term average would cause the bearish emergence and put downward pressure on the currency cross to navigate the region around a nearly 11-week low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by a five-month low of 180.81, which was reached on February 12.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.25%0.32%0.31%0.10%0.22%0.36%0.34%
EUR-0.25%0.07%0.04%-0.18%-0.01%0.12%0.08%
GBP-0.32%-0.07%-0.02%-0.25%-0.10%0.04%0.00%
JPY-0.31%-0.04%0.02%-0.21%-0.04%0.07%0.03%
CAD-0.10%0.18%0.25%0.21%0.17%0.24%0.24%
AUD-0.22%0.01%0.10%0.04%-0.17%0.11%0.09%
NZD-0.36%-0.12%-0.04%-0.07%-0.24%-0.11%-0.02%
CHF-0.34%-0.08%-0.00%-0.03%-0.24%-0.09%0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/USD up 0.4% Before The NFP

Key takeaways

  • The US dollar is weakening ahead of the report’s release.
  • The market is pricing in no change to US interest rates through the end of the year.
  • A weak reading could boost expectations for rate cuts.

USD remains under pressure despite this morning’s headlines, which cast doubt on the sustainability of the ceasefire between the US and Iran. The April NFP report on the US labour market is due to be released at 14:30, and will serve as a significant test for the dollar, which has been losing ground in recent days. The US currency remains under pressure despite this morning’s headlines, which cast doubt on the sustainability of the US-Iran ceasefire.

Latest reading March saw a particularly strong reading. The number of non-farm payrolls far exceeded even the most optimistic expectations, reaching its highest level since December 2024 (178k). In contrast, the unemployment rate (4.3%) and wage growth (3.5%) fell unexpectedly. The reading signalled that the Fed is not forced to cut interest rates hastily, which, given the rapid rise in energy prices, was exceptionally valuable.

Geopolitical context The situation on the geopolitical front remains tense. A glimmer of optimism came from Wednesday’s reports by Axios regarding work on a peace memorandum. Yesterday evening, however, the press was abuzz with speculation about a resumption of military action should a lasting agreement between the US and Iran not be reached before Trump’s visit to China. This is scheduled for 14–15 May.

Monetary policy

The data is of fundamental importance to the Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate requiring it to focus on both price stability and maximising employment. The markets are undecided as to the direction the FOMC will take in the coming months. The inflation situation is causing growing concern, which led to a significant split within the committee at its last meeting – as many as three of its members opposed the so-called “easing bias”, i.e. the preference for lower interest rates in the medium term. The April inflation reading, due next Tuesday, is expected to show the headline measure rising to 3.7%. However, policymakers will focus primarily on the core measure, wage growth and inflation expectations, as they are unable to exert much influence over inflation driven by supply-side factors, such as rising energy prices. Markets are currently pricing in no change to interest rates until the end of 2026.

A weak reading, suggesting that the labour market situation is deteriorating, moving away from the still relatively safe low fire-low hire status, may signal that the economy will need a monetary stimulus. This is, in any case, consistent with the rather dovish rhetoric presented by Kevin Warsh, who will take the helm of the FOMC from its next meeting. A strong reading could, in turn, help the Committee to focus almost all its attention on the inflation situation, swelling the ranks of the hawks, which already appear to be numerous following the last meeting.

Current data

The most recent data – weekly jobless claims – are particularly noteworthy; a week ago they fell to 189k, the lowest level since 1969, remaining at low levels this week (200k). The ADP data also showed healthy levels (although since the pandemic, their correlation with the NFPs has been significantly weaker). Chart: NFP and ADP data (2015 – 2026)

Source: XTB, 08/05/2026

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Trade of The Day – USD/CAD

Facts:

  • The pair is testing the +1 standard deviation line of the anchored VWAP, calculated from 2 January 2025
  • Canada is one of the world’s leading oil exporters

Recommendation:

  • Long position on USDCAD at market price
  • SL: 1.35575
  • Target Price: 1.38880

Opinion:

The USD/CAD pair is currently trading around 1.3647, within a support zone defined by key volume patterns from the volume profile built since the start of 2025. Both the Stop Loss (1.35575) and Take Profit (1.38880) levels have been set in relation to the largest volume clusters visible on the profile – zones of historically high market activity which act as strong technical barriers. The price is approaching the lower boundary of a multi-month consolidation phase, and the 1.3620–1.3660 zone has repeatedly acted as a support level triggering upward movements, which confirms the validity of opening a technical long position.

The key fundamental argument is the CAD’s dependence on oil prices – Canada is one of the leading exporters of crude oil, and the Canadian dollar functions de facto as a petrodollar, meaning that any further falls in oil prices directly weaken the CAD and support an increase in USD/CAD. Given the growing oversupply in the oil market and the expected increase in production by OPEC countries, the risk of continued pressure on oil prices remains real, which further favours the long side on this pair, following a fairly significant depreciation over the long term.

Although the money markets are pricing in a more hawkish shift in the Bank of Canada’s stance in the future compared to the current one, the spread in short-term yields between the US and Canada (1M: 3.64 vs. 2.25) still points to a carry trade in favour of the USD. However, we recommend exercising particular caution, as the fundamental environment for this pair may change rapidly and thus undermine the current basis for this recommendation.

Source: xStation

Methodology and assumptions:

The recommendation is based on a technical and fundamental analysis of the USD/CAD chart. Classical technical analysis was used to assess the situation and analyse the trend.