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USD/CAD – Holds onto gains near 1.3700 in countdown to BoC-Fed policy

  • USD/CAD trades firmly near 1.3700 as the US Dollar gains ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy.
  • The Fed and the BoC are expected to hold interest rates steady.
  • Investors await fresh cues on the US inflation and the interest rate outlook.

The USD/CAD pair clings to Tuesday’s gains around 1.3690 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Loonie pair reflects strength as the US Dollar (USD) trades higher ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT.

At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% higher to near 98.75.

Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, as elevated energy prices have de-anchored inflation projections globally. Market participants will pay close attention to the monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech to get fresh cues on inflation and the United States (US) interest rate outlook.

Ahead of the Fed’s policy, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its monetary policy at 13:45 GMT, in which it is also expected to hold interest rates steady. Market participants will closely monitor remarks regarding the Canadian labor market outlook, with the Unemployment Rate remaining higher at 6.7%.

USD/CAD technical analysis

USD/CAD reflects strength at around 1.3690 as of writing. However, the price keeps a mildly bearish near-term tone as it remains below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3724.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 44 suggests fading bullish momentum and hints that sellers are gaining incremental control while price remains capped by the overhead EMA.

On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the 20-period EMA at 1.3724, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current downside bias and reopen a push toward 1.3800. Looking down, initial support is seen at the former trend-line-based floor near 1.3593; a sustained break below that area would reinforce the developing bearish phase.

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USD/INR extends its advance as oil prices rise further

  • The Indian Rupee continues to underperform against the US Dollar amid rising oil prices.
  • US President Trump warns of extending the blockade on Iranian sea ports.
  • The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its decline against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair rallies further to near 94.75, as oil prices have extended their advance, following comments from United States (US) officials on late Tuesday that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported.

At the press time, the WTI Oil price trades flat around $97.00 but gained sharply in the late Tuesday’s session to near $99.50, the highest level seen in almost three weeks.

Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.

Trump prefers squeezing oil flows from Iran than bombing its territory again

The WSJ report showed the US President Trump has stated that the continuation of the blockade of Iranian sea ports is a preferred measure to push Tehran on the back foot in negotiating terms for a permanent ceasefire than bombing Iranian territory again.

The continuous US blockade on Iran means the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for almost 20% of global energy supply.

FIIs keep offloading their stake in Indian stock market

Overseas investors have emerged as net sellers for the seventh straight trading day on Tuesday, and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 20,395.08 crore. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) worry that “higher-for-longer” oil prices would be a major drag on India Inc.’s earnings projections by hitting their margins and will also diminish households’ spending power.

Investors shift focus to the Fed policy

On Wednesday, the major trigger for global markets will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT, in which the central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%.

The Fed is expected to warn of upside inflation and downside economic risks amid escalated energy prices. This will be the last Fed policy meeting by Jerome Powell as Chairman. Investors will pay close attention to Fed Chair Powell’s speech to get fresh cues on the US interest rate outlook.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR approaches all-time high above 95.00

USD/INR trades higher at around 94.75 in the opening session on Wednesday. The pair holds a bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at roughly 93.66, keeping the recent advance supported.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 63 suggests firm but not yet overbought upside momentum, reinforcing the constructive tone while leaving room for additional gains.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA near 93.66. As long as USD/INR defends this moving average, dips are likely to attract buying interest, and the broader uptrend is expected to stay intact. Looking up, the spot is expected to revisit the all-time high slightly above 95.00.

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EUR/USD – Likely find direction after Fed’s policy announcement

  • EUR/USD trades calmly near 1.1700 ahead of the Fed-ECB monetary policy announcement.
  • Both the Fed and the ECB will likely maintain the status quo.
  • The German HICP is estimated to have grown at a stronger pace of 3% YoY in April.

The EUR/USD pair consolidates around 1.1700, inside Tuesday’s trading range, during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair has remained broadly sideways, with investors awaiting monetary policy announcements by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

Both the Fed and the ECB are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their current levels, and warn of upside inflation risks amid elevated energy prices due to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Investors will pay close attention to commentaries from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde to get cues about whether their respective central banks are discussing the need to tighten monetary conditions in the near term.

Ahead of the Fed-ECB policy announcement, investors will focus on the preliminary German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for April, which will be published at 12:00 GMT. The data is expected to show that the German inflation accelerated to 3% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 2.7% in March.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades flat at around 1.1700 as of writing. The pair reflects a sideways trend as it remains sticky to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 1.1698, but stays above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1666.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifts into the 40.00-60.00 zone after failing to sustain above 60.00 for longer, which indicates loss of upside momentum, but the upside bias remains intact.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement near 1.1745, followed by the 61.8% retracement around 1.1825, with further hurdles at 1.1938 and the cycle high near 1.2082. Looking down, the 38.2% retracement at 1.1666 is the initial support; a break below that area would expose deeper supports at the 23.6% level near 1.1567 and the structural floor around 1.1408.

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GBP/USD – Hovers around nine-day EMA near 1.3500

  • GBP/USD may appreciate toward the two-month high of 1.3599.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 56 signals positive momentum without indicating overbought conditions.
  • The pair is testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3510.

GBP/USD inches higher after registering little losses in the previous day, trading around 1.3520 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a potential for a bearish reversal as the pair is hovering around the lower boundary of the ascending channel pattern.

However, the GBP/USD pair maintains a modest bullish bias as it holds above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA. The clustering of these averages below the spot suggests a supportive backdrop after the recent advance, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index around 56 hints at positive but not overextended momentum, leaving room for further gains while the pair remains under nearby resistance.

The GBP/USD pair may rise toward the primary barrier at the two-month high of 1.3599, recorded on April 17. Further advances would support the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel near the 1.3869, the highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27.

On the downside, the GBP/USD pair is testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3510. aligned with the nine-day EMA of 1.3509. Further support lies at the 50-day EMA at 1.3440. A successful break below this confluence support zone would expose the five-month low of 1.3159, recorded on March 31, followed by the 1.3010, the lowest since April 2025, which was recorded in November 2025.

GBP/USD: Daily Chart

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.02%-0.03%-0.02%-0.01%0.11%0.14%-0.11%
EUR0.02%-0.03%0.02%0.00%0.11%0.18%-0.08%
GBP0.03%0.03%0.02%0.02%0.13%0.18%-0.07%
JPY0.02%-0.02%-0.02%-0.01%0.13%0.18%-0.04%
CAD0.01%-0.00%-0.02%0.01%0.14%0.18%-0.07%
AUD-0.11%-0.11%-0.13%-0.13%-0.14%0.05%-0.25%
NZD-0.14%-0.18%-0.18%-0.18%-0.18%-0.05%-0.26%
CHF0.11%0.08%0.07%0.04%0.07%0.25%0.26%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

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Trade of The Day – GBP/JPY – Long GBP/JPY at market price Target: 215.85

Facts:

The pair reached the lower limit of 1:1 structure at 215.14 Main trend on the pair remains upward

Recommendation:

Trade: Long GBPJPY at market price Target: 215.85, 216.30 Stop: 214.90

Opinion:

Looking at GBPJPY chart, one can observe that the price reached the key technical support today. This support is marked with the lower limit of 1:1 structure (green rectangles), as well as 200-period moving average. In addition the bullish candlestick pattern – pin bar appeared on the H1 chart. Should buyers manage to hold the price above the support at 215.14, another upward impulse may be on the cards. We recommend taking a long position on GBPJPY at market price with two targets: 215.85 and 216.30 We recommend placing a stop loss order at 214.90.

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USD/INR boards fresh rally as oil prices remain elevated

  • The Indian Rupee falls further against the US Dollar as higher oil prices boost demand for the Greenback by Indian importers.
  • Fresh concerns over India Inc.’s earnings projections have dampened the FIIs interest in the Indian stock market.
  • This week, investors will pay close attention to the Fed’s monetary policy.

The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens further after a brief pause against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening session on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair jumps to near 94.50 as elevated oil prices continue to hurt the Indian Rupee.

As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades 0.6% higher to near $95.60 and is close to its two-week high of $97 posted on Thursday.

Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.

Oil prices have remained higher due to uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.

According to a Reuters report, oil-linked flows and hedging-related US Dollar demand are key headwinds for the Indian Rupee

Hormuz closure keeps oil prices elevated

The uncertainty regarding the reopening of the Hormuz remains escalated, as Washington has not shown any signs of interest in proposals delivered by Iran to end the war. On late Monday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that US President Trump discussed Iran’s proposal with the national security team, which calls for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a permanent ceasefire. Leavitt didn’t reveal any information regarding the odds of whether it will be taken forward by Washington.

“I wouldn’t say they’re considering it. I would just say that there was a discussion this morning that I don’t want to get ahead of, and you’ll hear directly from the president, I’m sure, on this topic,” Leavitt said.

On Monday, US President Trump received another proposal from Iran, which he called “better” than the one, which it was expected to present in canceled peace talks in Islamabad over the weekend, but “still not good enough”.

FIIs extends selling pressure in Indian stock market

In the last six trading days, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 18,291.34 crore after a little buying in the April 15-17 period. FIIs appear to be dumping their stake in the Indian equity market due to elevated oil prices, which have raised concerns over India Inc.’s earnings projections.

Fed seems to maintain status quo

This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which it is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% for the third time in a row. Investors will pay close attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments regarding the monetary policy outlook in the wake of the energy price shock amid the Hormuz closure.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR approaches all-time high of 95.20

USD/INR trades higher at around 94.50, maintaining a bullish near-term bias, as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 93.53. The positioning above this rising EMA suggests the broader uptrend remains intact, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 61 indicates firm but not overstretched upside momentum.

On the downside, the 20-day EMA at 93.53 stands as the first layer of dynamic support, and a daily close below this level would hint at a deeper corrective phase within the broader trend. Looking up, the pair aims to revisit the all-time high around 95.20. The spot would enter uncharted territory if it manages a decisive break above 95.20.

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EUR/JPY – Price Moves below 186.50, nine-day confluence

  • EUR/JPY may rebound toward the nine-day EMA at 186.66 near the ascending channel’s lower boundary.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 53 signals positive, not overstretched momentum.
  • The primary support lies at the 50-day EMA at 185.00.

EUR/JPY depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 186.40 during European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross slips below the ascending channel, signaling a possible bearish reversal.

However, the EUR/JPY cross holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the near-term bias mildly bullish even as it consolidates just under the nine-day EMA, which acts as immediate resistance.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 53, suggesting positive but not overstretched momentum, and hints that dips toward the underlying averages could continue to attract buyers while the broader uptrend structure remains intact.

The rebound toward the nine-day EMA at 186.66 around the lower boundary of the ascending channel would revive the bullish bias and lead the EUR/JPY cross to test the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17. Further advances above this level would support the currency cross to explore the region around the upper boundary of the channel, around 189.80.

On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may fall toward initial support, which lies at the 50-day EMA at 185.00.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.19%0.17%0.00%0.05%0.19%0.32%0.40%
EUR-0.19%-0.04%-0.22%-0.17%-0.02%0.07%0.20%
GBP-0.17%0.04%-0.17%-0.12%0.03%0.13%0.23%
JPY0.00%0.22%0.17%0.06%0.20%0.30%0.40%
CAD-0.05%0.17%0.12%-0.06%0.14%0.24%0.35%
AUD-0.19%0.02%-0.03%-0.20%-0.14%0.11%0.24%
NZD-0.32%-0.07%-0.13%-0.30%-0.24%-0.11%0.09%
CHF-0.40%-0.20%-0.23%-0.40%-0.35%-0.24%-0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/USD Price Forecast – Holds above 1.1700 as USD bulls seem hesitant ahead of FOMC meeting

  • EUR/USD edges lower as the US-Iran stalemate revives demand for the safe-haven USD.
  • Bets for at least one Fed rate cut in 2026 might cap the USD ahead of the FOMC meeting.
  • The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for a firm direction.

The EUR/USD pair trades with a mild negative bias during the Asian session on Tuesday and looks to extend the previous day’s retracement slide from levels just above mid-1.1700s.

The uncertainty over the second round of US-Iran peace talks underpins the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for spot prices. The USD bulls, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday before placing aggressive bets. This assists the EUR/USD pair to hold above the 1.1700 round-figure mark.

The EUR/USD pair holds a modest bullish bias as it trades above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move up from the late March low. However, momentum oscillators are mixed and hint that upside pressure is constructive but not impulsive. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is marginally positive and above its signal.

That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips back toward the mid-40s. Adding to this, the overnight failure near the 23.6% Fibo. and the subsequent fall warrants caution before placing positioning for any meaningful appreciating move. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at 1.1749 (23.6% Fibo. level), ahead of a more substantial barrier at the recent cycle high region just ahead of mid-1.1800s.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 1.1690, with further cushions at the 50.0% level around 1.1643 and the 61.8% retracement near 1.1595. A deeper pullback toward 1.1528 and 1.1442 would only come into view if the EUR/USD pair slips decisively below the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.06%0.03%-0.22%0.06%0.04%0.15%0.12%
EUR-0.06%-0.04%-0.30%-0.02%-0.04%0.04%0.06%
GBP-0.03%0.04%-0.24%0.03%0.02%0.10%0.10%
JPY0.22%0.30%0.24%0.29%0.28%0.36%0.35%
CAD-0.06%0.02%-0.03%-0.29%-0.02%0.06%0.07%
AUD-0.04%0.04%-0.02%-0.28%0.02%0.09%0.12%
NZD-0.15%-0.04%-0.10%-0.36%-0.06%-0.09%-0.01%
CHF-0.12%-0.06%-0.10%-0.35%-0.07%-0.12%0.00%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).