Technical Analysis 4 - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger July 20, 2026 No Comments

EUR/JPY Price Holds above nine-day EMA support at 185.50

EUR/JPY may find immediate resistance at the ascending triangle top near 186.10.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index of 55.33 signals healthy bullish momentum that is not yet overextended.
The initial support lies at the nine-day EMA at 185.50.

EUR/JPY remains subdued for the third consecutive day, trading around 185.80 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross is holding a constructive bullish bias as it stays above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), now aligned as nearby dynamic support.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55.33 leans to the upside without signalling overbought conditions, suggesting bullish momentum is present but not yet overstretched while price consolidates just under the recent highs.

The daily chart technical analysis shows the EUR/JPY cross is remaining within the ascending triangle, at the top near 186.10. This flat ceiling, combined with shallower dips, signals aggressive buying pressure. A decisive break above the triangle could trigger a powerful bullish continuation, which could expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, primary support lies at the nine-day EMA at 185.50, followed by the 50-day EMA at 185.12 and the ascending triangle’s lower boundary around 185.00. A break below the triangle would weaken the bullish bias and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the five-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the seven-month low of 180.81.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY — EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.01%	-0.07%	-0.02%	-0.09%	-0.15%	-0.24%	0.02%
EUR	0.01%		-0.02%	0.00%	-0.08%	-0.13%	-0.25%	0.03%
GBP	0.07%	0.02%		0.02%	-0.06%	-0.11%	-0.21%	0.04%
JPY	0.02%	0.00%	-0.02%		-0.06%	-0.13%	-0.19%	0.03%
CAD	0.09%	0.08%	0.06%	0.06%		-0.06%	-0.12%	0.09%
AUD	0.15%	0.13%	0.11%	0.13%	0.06%		-0.08%	0.18%
NZD	0.24%	0.25%	0.21%	0.19%	0.12%	0.08%		0.22%
CHF	-0.02%	-0.03%	-0.04%	-0.03%	-0.09%	-0.18%	-0.22%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger July 17, 2026 No Comments

EUR/JPY Price Remains below ascending triangle top near 186.00

EUR/JPY may find immediate resistance at the ascending triangle top near 186.00.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 55.17, indicating steady, sustainable bullish momentum.
The currency cross could find the initial support at the nine-day EMA at 185.42.

EUR/JPY extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around 185.70 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross is holding above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which reinforces a constructive near-term bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 55.17, neutral-to-positive territory, suggesting steady bullish momentum rather than an overstretched rally.

The daily chart technical analysis shows the EUR/JPY cross is pressing against ascending triangle resistance near 186.00. This flat ceiling, combined with shallower dips, signals aggressive buying pressure. Because bulls are consistently absorbing the supply at this level, momentum is heavily building for an imminent upside breakout. A decisive daily close above this upper boundary typically triggers a powerful bullish continuation, which could expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, primary support lies at the nine-day EMA at 185.42, followed by the 50-day EMA at 185.09. Further declines would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the ascending triangle’s lower boundary around 184.80. A break below the triangle would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.02%	0.06%	0.00%	-0.04%	0.12%	0.04%	0.00%
EUR	-0.02%		0.06%	-0.04%	-0.09%	0.13%	0.03%	-0.02%
GBP	-0.06%	-0.06%		-0.09%	-0.14%	0.06%	-0.02%	-0.08%
JPY	0.00%	0.04%	0.09%		-0.03%	0.15%	0.04%	0.01%
CAD	0.04%	0.09%	0.14%	0.03%		0.19%	0.09%	0.05%
AUD	-0.12%	-0.13%	-0.06%	-0.15%	-0.19%		-0.11%	-0.14%
NZD	-0.04%	-0.03%	0.02%	-0.04%	-0.09%	0.11%		-0.04%
CHF	-0.00%	0.02%	0.08%	-0.01%	-0.05%	0.14%	0.04%

Currency Hedger July 16, 2026 No Comments

Trade of The Day – GBP/AUD

Facts: GBPAUD is trading above the 100-period moving average from D1 interval The pair broke above the resistance at 1.9190 The pair invalidated 1:1 structure

Recommendation: Trade: Long position on GBPAUD at market price Target: 1.9735, 2.0000 Stop: 1.9140

Opinion: GBPAUD has been trading in a downward trend since April 2025, but the pair may be experiencing a trend reversal. Looking at the pair at the D1 interval, one can see that the price broke above the upper limit of the 1:1 structure which, according to the Overbalance strategy, may herald a resumption of an upward trend. As long as the price sits above 1.9190, the further upward move is the base case scenario. We recommend going long GBPAUD at market price with two targets: 1.9735 and 2.0000. We also recommend placing a stop loss at 1.9140. Source: xStation5

Currency Hedger July 16, 2026 No Comments

GBPUSD up 0.1% after better-than-expected UK GDP data

08:00 AM, United Kingdom, monthly GDP report:

UK GDP Estimate YoY Actual 1.3% (Forecast 1.2%, Previous 1.2%)
UK GDP Estimate MoM Actual 0.1% (Forecast 0%, Previous -0.1%)
UK Manufacturing Production MoM Actual 0.1% (Forecast -0.2%, Previous 0.4%)

The UK economy continues its steady, post-recession expansion, marking its sixth consecutive month of rolling three-month growth. While the broader trend remains highly positive, momentum slowed slightly heading into the summer, influenced by global supply chain disruptions stemming from the geopolitical conflict in Iran. Figure 1: Contributions to three-month GDP growth, UK, May 2025 to May 2026

Source: Gross domestic product (GDP) monthly estimate from the Office for National Statistics Key Performance & Sector Breakdown

Overall GDP: Grew 0.7% in the three months to May 2026 (down slightly from 0.8% in April), but managed a modest 0.1% tick-up in the month of May itself.
Services (The Growth Engine) : Grew 0.7% in the three months to May. Growth was powered by Information & Communication (up 2.5%) and professional services—specifically scientific R&D (up 5.1% in May), driven by medical sciences.
Production & Manufacturing: Rose 0.1% over the three months. Manufacturing was the standout sub-sector (up 1.6%), led by pharmaceuticals. However, this was weighed down by sharp declines in energy and water utilities.
Construction: Grew 1.6% over the three months, buoyed by private commercial projects. However, it contracted 0.8% in May, dragged down by a 5% drop in private housing repair and maintenance.

The pound reacted positively to the reading, though it wasn’t able to break out of the current range between 1,3520 and 1,3550. GBPUSD is tradining closely to the 10-hour exponential moving average (EMA10 on an H1 chart; yellow), slowing down after dynamic gains thruought the yesterday’s session.

Source: xStation5

Currency Hedger July 16, 2026 No Comments

AUD/JPY Price Declines below 113.50, while maintaining bullish near‑term structure

AUD/JPY softens to near 113.45 in Thursday’s early European session.
The cross maintains a constructive outlook, with bullish RSI momentum.
The immediate resistance level is seen at 113.70; the initial support level to watch is 112.65.

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 113.45 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Verbal intervention from Japanese authorities provides some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD).

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that the authorities are ready to take appropriate action on currency anytime as needed. She added that the officials will track market trends and economic data to ensure fiscal sustainability.

Senior officials from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) noted that a delay in stimulus adjustment amid high inflation risk could trigger an economic downturn. However, a Reuters survey showed earlier Thursday that nearly half of Japanese firms are experiencing negative business impact from the BoJ’s interest rate hikes, with higher borrowing costs hurting bottom lines and discouraging capital investment.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a bullish near-term bias as price remains above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands 20-period middle band, suggesting the broader uptrend is still supported despite recent consolidation. The latest Relative Strength Index (14) reading around 57 keeps momentum on the constructive side, hinting that buyers retain control as long as the pair stays comfortably above the lower Bollinger band at 111.10.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger upper band around 113.70, where a sustained break would open the door to the May 13 high of 114.74.

On the downside, the first layer of support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 112.65, followed by the Bollinger middle band near 112.40, while a deeper pullback towards the lower band at 111.10 would be needed to seriously challenge the prevailing bullish structure.

Currency Hedger July 16, 2026 No Comments

EUR/JPY Price Positions near ascending triangle top around 186.00

EUR/JPY near the 186.10 ascending triangle ceiling suggests building bullish pressure.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 56 indicates positive, sustainable upward momentum.
The currency cross could find the initial support at the nine-day EMA at 185.35.

EUR/JPY depreciates after three days of gains, trading around 185.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross is retaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 suggests positive but not overextended momentum, hinting that buyers still control the near-term tone.

The daily chart technical analysis shows the EUR/JPY cross positioning near the upper boundary of an ascending triangle around 186.10, suggesting that price crowding right against that flat ceiling indicates that buyers are aggressively absorbing all selling pressure at that level. This positioning shows immense bullish pressure. Since the dips are getting shallower, staying near the top suggests a breakout above resistance is likely building up.

A decisive daily close above this upper boundary typically triggers a powerful bullish continuation, which could expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, primary support lies at the nine-day EMA at 185.35, followed by the 50-day EMA at 185.05. Further declines would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the ascending triangle’s lower boundary around 184.70. A break below the triangle would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.00%	0.12%	-0.05%	0.08%	0.09%	0.12%	0.11%
EUR	-0.00%		0.11%	-0.04%	0.08%	0.19%	0.13%	0.10%
GBP	-0.12%	-0.11%		-0.15%	-0.02%	0.06%	0.02%	0.00%
JPY	0.05%	0.04%	0.15%		0.09%	0.20%	0.16%	0.15%
CAD	-0.08%	-0.08%	0.02%	-0.09%		0.10%	0.07%	0.05%
AUD	-0.09%	-0.19%	-0.06%	-0.20%	-0.10%		-0.01%	-0.05%
NZD	-0.12%	-0.13%	-0.02%	-0.16%	-0.07%	0.01%		-0.03%
CHF	-0.11%	-0.10%	-0.01%	-0.15%	-0.05%	0.05%	0.03%

Currency Hedger July 15, 2026 No Comments

Chart of the Day – What is next for July’s strongest currency?

The geopolitically turbulent start of July has brought a strengthening of commodity currencies (among them, the Norwegian krone). However, the top of the G10 list is occupied by the New Zealand dollar, which may come as a surprise to some. The currency has strengthened by nearly 2.5% against the dollar over the past two weeks.

What lies behind such a significant move?

Fundamental to this, as is often the case, were the actions of the central bank. On 8 July, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the main interest rate by 25 bps, lifting it to 2.5%. This was the first rate hike in New Zealand in over three years. The key, however, was not just the decision to raise rates (which was largely priced in by markets) but the communication that accompanied it.

The decision was made unanimously by the committee. At the previous meeting in May, there was a 3-3 split in votes, and the balance was only tipped by the new governor, Anna Breman.
The RBNZ Chief Economist, Paul Conway, drew clear attention to pro-inflationary risks resulting from the escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
The Bank stated in its communiqué that “while further interest rate hikes seem likely at upcoming meetings, their timing is highly uncertain.”
RBNZ research suggests that after a long period of elevated inflation, New Zealand companies are significantly more inclined to immediately pass costs on to consumers and less willing to lower prices when costs fall.

As a result, the market’s baseline scenario is another hike in September and another upward move in October or December. This would bring the main interest rate (cash rate) to 3%, which the bank currently defines as the neutral level.

What lies ahead? There is still plenty of time until September.

In the meantime, the Q2 inflation report will be published. The consensus assumes a significant increase in the headline indicator, most likely to around 4%.
After the manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level since 2021 (59.7), data on production could prove particularly interesting.

Data from China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, which absorbs nearly 25% of the country’s total exports (mainly dairy, meat, wood, and fruit), will also be significant.

Stronger economic data from the Middle Kingdom usually means greater demand for products imported from New Zealand.
In this context, the readings published today are not particularly optimistic. GDP dynamics fell to the lowest level since 2022 (+4.3% year-on-year).
The Asian giant is burdened by a property market crisis, weak domestic demand, and a decline in investment (down 5.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year).

The strength of the dollar itself, which is awaiting further news from the geopolitical front and the September FOMC decision, could, of course, also prove key.

The market does not really expect a hike, so the focus will be on communication. Kevin Warsh remains enigmatic, so upcoming conferences may attract particular attention.

Technical Analysis Figure 1: NZDUSD [D1] (08.07.2025 – 15.07.2026)

Source: xStation, 15.07.2026 The NZDUSD pair has broken out of the downtrend and is currently testing key support levels. The price has breached the 50% Fibonacci retracement and is hovering around the 150-day moving average. The upward momentum is also suggested by the MACD indicator. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 63.4, which confirms a clear advantage for market bulls, while at the same time indicating that the market is not yet in the extreme overbought zone (above 70).

Currency Hedger July 15, 2026 No Comments

AUD/JPY Price Gains traction above 113.00, bullish trend stays firm above 100-day SMA

AUD/JPY gains ground to near 113.25 in Wednesday’s early European session.
The cross keeps a bullish vibe above the 100-day SMA, with RSI holding above the midline.
The first upside barrier emerges at 113.55; the initial support level is seen at 112.65.

The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 113.25 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after reports regarding the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF).

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that the government is considering nudging the world’s largest pension fund to buy domestic financial assets to support the currency, though concrete plans have yet to materialize. However, traders remain on alert for possible intervention from Japanese authorities, which might cap the upside for the cross.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a near-term bullish bias as price extends above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger middle band, keeping the broader uptrend supported. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.23 sits in positive territory without entering overbought conditions, suggesting that buying pressure remains constructive but not overstretched.

On the topside, the next notable resistance is the upper Bollinger band, emerging around 113.55, where the current advance could start to face profit-taking. The next hurdle to watch is the May 14 high of 114.66. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 112.65, followed by the Bollinger midline near 112.35, while deeper pullbacks would likely be cushioned by the lower Bollinger band around 111.15.