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EUR/GBP softens to near 0.8650 on weak German Retail Sales, ECB and BoE rate decisions loom

  • EUR/GBP softens to around 0.8660 in Thursday’s early European session. 
  • German Retail Sales fell by 2.0% MoM in March, weaker than expected. 
  • The ECB and BoE interest rate decisions will take center stage later on Thursday. 

The EUR/GBP cross declines to near 0.8660 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) following the downbeat German Retail Sales data. The preliminary readings of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from Germany and the Eurozone are due later on Thursday. Also, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decisions will be in the spotlight. 

Data released by Destatis on Thursday showed that German Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, fell 2.0% MoM in March. This figure followed a decline of 0.3% in February (revised from -0.6%) and came in weaker than the expectations of a 0.1% decrease. 

On an annualized basis, Retail Sales dropped 2.0% in March, versus an estimated rise of 0.5% and the prior release of 0.9% growth (revised from 0.7%). The EUR attracts some sellers in an immediate reaction to the weaker German economic data. 

The ECB is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Thursday due to high uncertainty. Nonetheless, rising inflation, driven by energy price volatility from the Iran war, has raised the expectation of a rate hike in June. Economists predict a quarter-point hike at June’s meeting, and markets now fully price two additional ones after that before the year is out, according to Bloomberg. 

The BoE is likely to keep interest rates on hold at its April policy meeting on Thursday as it awaits the economic fallout from the Iran war. Traders will closely monitor the speech from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey for any ‌suggestions that higher borrowing costs are likely to be needed.

“The hikes fully priced into financial markets were already weighing on the economy, reducing the likelihood that the BoE will actually have to raise Bank Rate, at least for now,” said Andrew Wishart, senior UK economist at Berenberg. 

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EUR/USD dips towards 1.1650 with Eurozone inflation, ECB rates on tap

  • EUR/USD drifts to three-week lows near 1.1650 as the Fed turns hawkish.
  • The Federal Reserve left rates on hold, with some policymakers opposing the “easing bias”.
  • Eurozone inflation and the ECB’s monetary policy decision will guide the pair on Thursday.

The Euro (EUR) extends losses for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, trading at 1.1663 at the time of writing, down from weekly highs at 1.1755. A hawkish shift in the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy stance and the deadlock in the Middle East conflict are buoying the safe-haven USD, ahead of the Eurozone inflation data and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision, both due later today.

On Wednesday, the Fed left rates on hold at the 3.50%-3.75% band, as expected, yet with the most divided committee since 1992, as three policymakers argued that the “easing bias” phrase is no longer appropriate given the spike in energy prices.

Higher Treasury yields give a fresh push to the USD

The market has priced out the chance of a Fed rate cut this year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, and now prices in a nearly 50% chance of a rate hike in June next year. This has given US Treasury yields a fresh boost, providing additional support for the US Dollar.

Beyond that, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who ends his term on May 15, affirmed that he will remain at the bank as Governor, due to the legal actions taken against him by US President Donald Trump. Powell will replace Stephen Miran, who was appointed by Trump in 2025 and voted for a rate cut on Wednesday, and is likely to counter pressure from the administration on the next Chair, Kevin Warsh, to ease monetary policy.

In Europe, traders will be attentive to the Eurozone preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter and the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for April, which is expected to show a sharp acceleration, boosted by higher Oil prices.

The main focus on Thursday, however, will be on the ECB’s monetary policy decision. The bank will most likely leave interest rates on hold, awaiting more clarity on the Middle East conflict, while leaving the door open for a rate hike in June or July.

Technical Analysis: Bears are testing a key support zone

EUR/USD Chart Analysis

EUR/USD is showing mounting bearish pressure after breaking the neckline of a bearish “Head & Shoulders” (H&S) pattern at 1.1675, and is now testing a cluster of supports above 1.1645, which held bears several times in mid-April.

Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart are going deeper into bearish territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 34 hints at lingering downside pressure, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is showing widening red bars.

A clear break of the April 8 intraday low, in the area of 1.1645, would confirm the H&S formation. The pair might find some support at the 1.1630 area, where the 50% Fibonacci support of the March-April rally meets late March and early April highs. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is at 1.1583. The H&S’s measured target is coincident with the April 6 low near 1.1500.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the previous support zone near 1.1675, followed by Wednesday’s high at 1.1720 and the mentioned weekly high at 1.1755.

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BoJ Report: Impact of weak Japanese Yen shock on inflation bigger than that from oil shock

A report released by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Thursday revealed that the impact of weak Japanese Yen shock on inflation bigger than that from oil shock. The weakening of the JPY pushes up prices for wide range of goods services, thereby gives bigger boost to consumer inflation excluding fresh food, energy.

Key quotes

Impact of weak Yen shock on inflation bigger than that from oil shock.

Weak Yen pushes up prices for wide range of goods services, thereby gives bigger boost to consumer inflation excluding fresh food, energy.

Oil price rises put fairly big upward pressure on smaller number of goods related to energy, which means impact on CPI excluding fresh food, energy isn’t very big.

Weak Yen shock expands wage, profit margin and leads to increase in GDP deflater, while energy shock squeezes wage, profit margin and leads to decrease in GDP deflater.

Under risk scenario projecting elevated oil prices, weaker Yen, stock falls, real GDP forecasts will be -0.1% point to 0.2% point lower in fiscal 2026-2028 than BoJ’s median baseline projections.

Under risk scenario, core consumer inflation will overshoot significantly from BoJ’s median baseline projections, could hover around 3% in fiscal 2026, 2027.

Such overshoot of inflation could heighten medium-, long-term inflation expectations.

If there is big supply chain disruption, real GDP could undershoot sharply while bottlenecks could lead to non-linear rise in inflation.

BoJ will scrutinise various risk factors more than ever as growth, price developments could sharply deviate from its baseline projections depending on Middle East developments.

Market reaction

As of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.02% on the day at 160.48.

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NZD/USD hangs near two-week low; seems vulnerable below 0.5850/200-day SMA

  • NZD/USD struggles to capitalize on a modest intraday uptick to the 200-day SMA support breakpoint.
  • The Fed’s hawkish tilt and the US-Iran stalemate continue to underpin the USD, capping spot prices.
  • Traders now look to the Advance US Q1 GDP report and the US PCE Price Index for a fresh impetus.

The NZD/USD pair attracts fresh sellers following a modest Asian session move up to the 0.5845 area on Thursday and slides back closer to a two-and-a-half week low, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.5825 region, nearly unchanged for the day, and seem vulnerable to this week’s retracement slide from the 0.5920-0.5925 horizontal barrier amid a bullish US Dollar (USD).

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, gains positive traction for the third consecutive day and touches a fresh high since April 13 amid a combination of supporting factors. The global risk sentiment remains fragile in the wake of stalled US-Iran peace talks. Furthermore, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) relatively hawkish tilt on Wednesday lends additional support to the safe-haven USD, which, in turn, is seen weighing on the NZD/USD pair.

US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s new proposal to end the two-month conflict and reiterated that there will be no peace deal with the Islamic Republic unless they agree to give up the nuclear program. Trump further said that the naval blockade of Iranian ports will continue. The continued disruptions of energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remain supportive of elevated Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and reaffirming hawkish Fed expectations.

As was widely expected, the US central bank held its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Notably, the decision saw the highest number of dissents since 1992, with three policymakers voting against the accommodative tone in the policy statement. Traders sharply reduced bets on any further Fed policy easing and are now pricing in over a 10% chance of a rate increase by year-end. This favors the USD bulls and validates the negative outlook for the NZD/USD pair.

The aforementioned factors offset expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would maintain a cautious stance or consider tightening to bring inflation back to the 2% midpoint. This, along with an intraday failure near a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support-turned-resistance, suggests that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair is to the downside. Traders now look to important US macro data for a fresh impetus.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.15%0.09%0.06%0.00%-0.01%0.00%0.05%
EUR-0.15%-0.02%-0.07%-0.14%-0.15%-0.12%-0.07%
GBP-0.09%0.02%-0.04%-0.12%-0.11%-0.09%-0.05%
JPY-0.06%0.07%0.04%-0.07%-0.08%-0.11%-0.04%
CAD-0.01%0.14%0.12%0.07%-0.03%-0.02%0.05%
AUD0.01%0.15%0.11%0.08%0.03%0.03%0.09%
NZD-0.00%0.12%0.09%0.11%0.02%-0.03%0.05%
CHF-0.05%0.07%0.05%0.04%-0.05%-0.09%-0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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EUR/JPY holds losses near 187.00 ahead of ECB policy decision

  • EUR/JPY weakens as the Euro struggles amid rising risk aversion driven by Middle East tensions.
  • The European Central Bank is broadly expected to keep interest rates steady on Thursday.
  • The currency cross may rebound as the Yen weakens amid growing short positions.

EUR/JPY edges lower after four days of gains, trading around 187.20 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross depreciates as the risk-sensitive Euro (EUR) struggles amid increased risk aversion, which could be attributed to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump said the naval blockade on Iran will continue until a nuclear deal is secured, dismissing calls to reopen key routes and favoring economic pressure over military action. Iran warned of retaliation, accusing Washington of using coercion and destabilization tactics to force compliance.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday, in line with many global peers this week, while signaling that a rate hike, possibly as early as June, may be necessary to counter an energy-driven surge in consumer prices.

Any delay in tightening is likely to be brief, with investors anticipating a move in June followed by two additional hikes later this year, as fading prospects for peace in Iran keep oil prices elevated and nearing levels outlined in the ECB’s “adverse” scenario, according to Reuters.

Meanwhile, downside pressure on EUR/JPY may be limited as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under strain, with traders increasingly building short positions on expectations that neither further rate hikes nor official intervention will offer meaningful near-term support.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed the central bank’s gradual tightening stance, though the yen continued to weaken. Verbal interventions from policymakers have also had limited impact, with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stating that authorities remain ready to step into foreign exchange markets at any time to stabilize the currency.

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JPY flat lines after Fed holds rates, Japan warns on speculative moves

  • USD/JPY holds steady near 160.45 in Thursday’s early European session. 
  • Fed held interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday; traders brace for the US Q1 GDP and Core PCE data. 
  • Japan’s Katayama said authorities are on standby to take decisive action against speculative currency moves.

The USD/JPY pair steadies near a 21-month high of around 160.45 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines as Japanese authorities are on high alert for intervention after the Japanese Yen (JPY) breached the psychological level. 

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the benchmark interest rate steady in a range between 3.50% and 3.75% at the April policy meeting on Wednesday. The Fed’s 8–4 decision to leave the rate unchanged was its most divided since 1992, drawing three dissents from officials who no longer think the bank should communicate a bias towards easing.

During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that near-term inflation expectations are rising, adding that he would stay on the Board of Governors for an indefinite period, even after his chairmanship ends. A hawkish Fed holding rates could provide some support to the Greenback against the JPY. 

The preliminary reading of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation report for March will be the highlights later on Thursday.

On the other hand, potential intervention threats from Japanese officials might underpin the JPY and cap the upside for the pair. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama highlighted a “high sense of urgency” regarding speculative and weak-JPY moves driven by Middle East tensions.  

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AUD/USD – Bullish USD to cap recovery from 0.7100/two-week low

  • AUD/USD stages a modest recovery from a two-week low, around 0.7100, touched on Wednesday.
  • The Fed’s hawkish tilt and Iran tensions continue to underpin the USD, warranting caution for bulls.
  • The technical setup suggests that any further move up is likely to be sold into and remain capped.

The AUD/USD pair gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Thursday and recovers a part of the previous day’s heavy losses to the 0.7100 mark, or a two-week low.

Expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will stick to its hawkish stance counter China’s mixed official PMIs and turn out to be a key factor offering some support to the Australian Dollar (AUD). The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, sticks to its positive tone near the highest level since April 13 on the back of persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from stalled US-Iran peace talks. Furthermore, diminishing odds for any further policy easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) underpin the USD and should cap the upside for the AUD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices have repeatedly failed to find acceptance above the 0.7200 mark and have oscillated in a range over the past two weeks or so. Meanwhile, the overnight slide confirms a breakdown below the 0.7130-0.7125 confluence – comprising the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent recovery from the year-to-date low touched in March. This, in turn, favors the AUD/USD bears, suggesting that the move higher might now be seen as a selling opportunity.

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds around 40 and hints at modest bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in negative territory but flattening, suggesting downside pressure is softening rather than accelerating.

In the meantime, immediate resistance emerges at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7131, with a stronger barrier at the recent cycle high near 0.7223. On the downside, initial support aligns with the 0.7100 mark ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 0.7074. This is followed by the 50.0% level at 0.7027 and deeper supports at the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements at 0.6981 and 0.6915, respectively, where buyers would likely attempt to slow any extended pullback.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis AUD/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.11%0.00%0.00%-0.04%-0.11%-0.08%-0.01%
EUR-0.11%-0.07%-0.13%-0.16%-0.21%-0.17%-0.10%
GBP-0.01%0.07%-0.02%-0.08%-0.12%-0.09%-0.02%
JPY0.00%0.13%0.02%-0.06%-0.11%-0.13%-0.04%
CAD0.04%0.16%0.08%0.06%-0.08%-0.06%0.04%
AUD0.11%0.21%0.12%0.11%0.08%0.04%0.12%
NZD0.08%0.17%0.09%0.13%0.06%-0.04%0.08%
CHF0.00%0.10%0.02%0.04%-0.04%-0.12%-0.08%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote)

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GBP flat lines vs USD as traders await BoE policy update and US PCE Price Index

  • GBP/USD bulls seem hesitant as the Fed’s hawkish tilt and the US-Iran tensions underpin the USD.
  • Bets for two BoE rate hikes in 2026 offer support to the GBP and act as a tailwind for spot prices.
  • Traders also seem reluctant ahead of the BoE decision and the crucial US PCE Price Index data.

The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick to the 1.3500 neighborhood, though it holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3475-1.3480 region, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders look forward to the Bank of England (BoE) event and the US inflation data for a fresh impetus.

The UK central bank is scheduled to announce its policy decision later today and is expected to keep interest rates on hold. The current market pricing, however, points to a greater possibility of two rate hikes in 2026 amid inflation risks stemming from the war-driven surge in energy prices. Hence, the focus will be on the accompanying policy statement and the post-meeting press conference, where comments from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will be scrutinized for cues about the interest rate path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the British Pound (GBP).

Traders will further take cues from the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which should further provide some meaningful impetus to the GBP/USD pair later today. In the meantime, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish tilt, along with the US-Iran stalemate, might continue to act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside for the currency pair. The Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday saw the highest number of dissents since 1992, with three policymakers voting against the accommodative tone in the policy statement.

Traders were quick to reduce bets on any further easing by the Fed in 2026; instead, they are now pricing in over a 10% chance of a rate increase by the year-end. On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s new proposal to end the two-month conflict and reiterated that there will be no peace deal with the Islamic Republic unless it agrees to give up the nuclear program. Trump further added that the naval blockade of Iranian ports will continue, which keeps geopolitical risks in play. This, in turn, favors the USD bulls and should keep a lid on the GBP/USD pair.