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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Starts the US NFP week cautiously

  • EUR/USD edges down to near 1.1645 as the US Dollar trades slightly higher.
  • This week, major triggers will be the flash Eurozone HICP and the US NFP data for May.
  • The removal of Iran’s uranium enrichment remains the key demand by the US for a permanent peace deal.

The EUR/USD pair trades slightly lower to near 1.1645 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The major currency pair faces marginal selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) ticks up, with investors awaiting key United States (US) economic releases this week, especially the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 99.03.

Investors will pay close attention to the US NFP data to get fresh cues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. Later in the day, market participants will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for May, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.

In the Eurozone, investors await the preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for May, which will be released on Tuesday. The inflation data will influence market expectations for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook.

On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the US and Iran regarding a permanent peace deal remain ongoing, with Washington hardening its stance on Tehran destroying its uranium dust and giving up its nuclear ambitions.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD ticks lower at around 1.1645 in the Asian trade. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.1646 acts as a key barrier for the Euro bulls. The pair holds just above the upward-sloping border of the Symmetrical Triangle formation near 1.1599.

The Relative Strength Index (14) has slipped to around 47, suggesting fading bullish momentum and reinforcing the idea of consolidation with a bearish lean rather than a decisive recovery.

On the topside, the 20-day EMA is the immediate resistance, followed by the downward-sloping border of the Triangle formation around 1.1719. On the downside, the first line of defense sits at the former ascending trend-line break at 1.1599; a sustained move below that support would expose a deeper pullback towards 1.1500.

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Yen Stays Weak Near Key Intervention Threshold

The Japanese yen traded around 159.5 per dollar on Monday, remaining under pressure and hovering near the closely watched 160 level that previously triggered official intervention to support the currency. Data released on Friday showed that Japanese authorities spent ¥11.7 trillion intervening in foreign exchange markets in late April, confirming widespread market speculations. On the policy front, investors remain divided over whether the Bank of Japan will deliver another interest rate hike this month, as policymakers weigh growing uncertainties linked to tensions in the Middle East. Market participants are now awaiting remarks from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda later this week for further insight into the central bank’s policy outlook. Meanwhile, Japan’s capital spending was unchanged in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, pointing to a slowdown in corporate investment and raising concerns about the strength of domestic economic momentum.

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Offshore Yuan Retreats from Over 3-Year High

The offshore yuan edged lower to around 6.76 per dollar on Monday, retreating from a more than three-year high reached in the previous session, as investors weighed mixed PMI data amid concerns about the economic impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict. Official data showed China’s Composite PMI rose to 50.5 in May from 50.1 in April, supported by a slight rebound in the non-manufacturing sector (50.1 vs 49.4), while the manufacturing PMI (50.0 vs 50.3) edged lower. A private survey also showed that the manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.8 from April’s five-year high of 52.2. Firms continued to closely watch developments in the Middle East as they faced subdued demand and higher input costs stemming from regional tensions. The prospects for a US-Iran ceasefire agreement remained uncertain, despite both sides having recently exchanged messages seeking amendments to a draft deal that would extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

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Indian Rupee Rises to 3-Week High

The Indian rupee strengthened to around 94.7 per dollar, reaching three-week highs as sustained intervention by the Reserve Bank of India boosted confidence in the currency. Expectations that the central bank will continue to curb excessive exchange-rate volatility ahead of its upcoming policy decision also supported sentiment. Markets are now focused on the RBI’s policy meeting, where the benchmark repo rate is widely expected to remain unchanged at 5.25%. Investors will closely watch the central bank’s updated inflation and growth forecasts, as well as any signals on measures to attract foreign capital and support external financing conditions. However, the rupee’s gains were limited by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which pushed Brent crude above $93 per barrel. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations and continued foreign portfolio outflows from Indian equities capped further appreciation.