Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Weakens below 1.1450 amid oversold RSI momentum

  • EUR/USD softens to near 1.1425 in Friday’s early European session.
  • The pair keeps a bearish vibe; downside pressure persists with an oversold RSI.
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 1.1450; the initial support level to watch is 1.1411.

The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.1425 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace deal provides some support to a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) and acts as a headwind for the major pair.

Reuters reported on Friday that the Swiss Foreign Ministry announced that US-Iran talks at Bürgenstock will not take place as planned on Friday. US Vice President JD Vance canceled his trip to talks with Iran in Switzerland.

On Thursday, Iran’s Tasnim news agency quoted informed sources as saying that the Iranian delegation’s trip to Switzerland had not been finalized. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen TV also quoted sources as saying that, due to the ongoing Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon, the Iranian negotiation team has postponed its trip to Switzerland.

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/USD extends a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 20-day Bollinger middle band and well under the 100-day simple moving average. The pair is pressing the lower end of the Bollinger envelope, with price lodged beneath the latest lower band, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 30.6 is edging into oversold territory, hinting that downside pressure persists but could be nearing exhaustion.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the lower Bollinger band at 1.1450, followed by the 20-day Bollinger SMA around 1.1577, where a recovery would start to ease immediate selling pressure. Above that, the 100-day SMA at 1.1665 and the upper Bollinger band near 1.1705 form a broader supply zone that is likely to cap rebounds unless buyers can reclaim it decisively. On the downside, the first contention level is seen at the March 13 low of 1.1411. Any follow-through selling below this level could pave the way to the April 23, 2025 low of 1.1308.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Swiss Franc weakens as traders ‌ramp up US rate hike bets, Vance canceled trip to talks with Iran

  • USD/CHF extends its upside to near 0.8075 in Friday’s early European session. 
  • US Vice President JD Vance pulled out of a planned trip to Switzerland for talks with Iran. 
  • SNB left its key interest rate at 0%, with a focus on currency risks. 

The USD/CHF pair advances to around 0.8075, the highest since December 10, 2025, during the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) as the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials left interest rates unchanged at its June policy meeting and signaled the possibility of higher rates later this year. 

Hawkish signals from the Fed provide some support to the Greenback. On Wednesday, the US central bank decided to hold its benchmark interest rate steady between 3.50% and 3.75% after Kevin Warsh’s first meeting in charge of the central bank. Warsh said during the press conference that “price stability” would be the Fed’s guiding principle.

Futures traders have priced in that the Fed is likely to raise rates by 25 basis points (bps) at its September meeting, with some chance seen of a move as soon as next month’s meeting. 

On the geopolitical front, US Vice President JD Vance cancelled a planned trip to meet Iranian negotiators in Switzerland to begin complex talks on implementing a 14-point agreement struck between Tehran and Washington to end their war. Traders will closely watch the US-Iran peace deal developments. Uncertainty in the Middle East could underpin the USD against the CHF in the near term. 

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its main policy rate unchanged at 0% on Thursday, as widely expected by markets, keeping borrowing costs well below those seen in other major economies. The SNB also said that it is ready to intervene in foreign exchange markets if a rebound in demand for the safe-haven franc drives the currency higher.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Australian Dollar softens to near 0.7000 as Vice President canceled trip to talks with Iran

  • AUD/USD weakens to around 0.7010 in Friday’s Asian session. 
  • US Vice President cancels trip to Switzerland for Iran talks. 
  • Fed’s hawkish hold leads to rate-hike bets, supporting the US Dollar. 

The AUD/USD pair loses momentum to near 0.7010 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) softens against the US Dollar (USD) after reports that US Vice President JD Vance canceled his trip to talks with Iran in Switzerland, raising concerns about the US-Iran peace deal. 

CNN reported on Friday that the White House indicated that the first round of technical talks with Iran under the memorandum of understanding signed this week will not take place on Friday. Vance said that the meeting wasn’t yet finalized, as it’s difficult for the Iranian officials to get out of Iran. Vice President added that he thought he would travel to Switzerland at some point this weekend.

Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the peace agreement. A lack of progress in US-Iran or any signs of renewed tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair.

Furthermore, the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might contribute to the USD’s upside. The US central bank on Wednesday decided to hold the interest rates steady in a 3.50% to 3.75% range as Kevin Warsh began his era in charge with a sweeping policy review. Fed officials signaled the chance of higher rates as they assess the impacts of the Iran war on inflation.

“We’ve seen very spectacular data in the U.S. that’s been surprising to the upside since late April, then the Fed was as hawkish as market expectations could ever have been, so we’ve seen more dollar upside,” said Sarah Ying, head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets.

Currency Hedger No Comments

New Zealand Dollar drops to fresh low since April as hawkish Fed bets support USD

  • NZD/USD remains on the defensive as the Fed’s hawkish tilt continues to underpin the USD.
  • US Vice President JD Vance cancels his trip for talks with Iran, keeping a lid on the optimism.
  • Bets for more aggressive RBNZ rate hikes could support the NZD and limit losses for the pair.

The NZD/USD pair turns lower for the third straight day following a modest Asian session uptick to the 0.5775 region and touches a fresh low since April 8 in the last hour. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-0.5700s and seem poised to register heavy weekly losses amid a bullish US Dollar (USD).

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, preserves its recent strength to the highest level since May 2025 in the face of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish tilt. In fact, policymakers projected the fed funds rate at 3.8% by the end of this year, up from 3.4% in March, implying at least one 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike in the coming months. This, to a larger extent, overshadows the US-Iran peace deal and continues to underpin the buck, which, in turn, is seen acting as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair.

Meanwhile, CNN reported that US Vice President JD Vance canceled his trip to talks with Iran in Switzerland. This further keeps a lid on the latest optimism and turns out to be another factor supporting the Greenback. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) hawkish shift might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and limit losses for the NZD/USD pair. In fact, the RBNZ indicated that the OCR could reach roughly 2.85% by the end of this year, implying up to three rate hikes.

Moving ahead, the liquidity and trading volumes could remain low in the face of a US bank holiday in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day. This further makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for an extension of the recent retracement slide from the vicinity of the 0.6000 psychological mark, or the May monthly swing high.

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD1.04%1.60%0.66%1.11%0.55%1.41%1.14%
EUR-1.04%0.52%-0.37%0.06%-0.51%0.36%0.09%
GBP-1.60%-0.52%-1.06%-0.44%-1.04%-0.17%-0.44%
JPY-0.66%0.37%1.06%0.45%-0.11%0.79%0.47%
CAD-1.11%-0.06%0.44%-0.45%-0.60%0.33%0.02%
AUD-0.55%0.51%1.04%0.11%0.60%0.88%0.60%
NZD-1.41%-0.36%0.17%-0.79%-0.33%-0.88%-0.27%
CHF-1.14%-0.09%0.44%-0.47%-0.02%-0.60%0.27%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

GBP slides to fresh low since April vs bullish USD amid UK political crisis

  • GBP/USD prolongs its downtrend for the third straight day amid a combination of negative factors.
  • The UK political turmoil undermines the GBP amid reduced bets for aggressive rate hikes by the BoE.
  • The Fed’s hawkish tilt and the Iran uncertainty boost the USD, further exerting pressure on the pair.

The GBP/USD pair attracts some follow-through selling for the third straight day and weakens further below the 1.3200 mark, hitting a fresh low since April during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices remain on track to register heavy weekly losses, and the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the downside.

The British Pound (GBP) continues with its relative underperformance in the wake of lingering domestic political risks, which, along with a bullish US Dollar (USD), validates the near-term negative outlook for the GBP/USD pair. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham cleared a path to attempt to oust British Prime Minister Keir Starmer after winning a parliamentary seat in northern England on Friday. In his victory speech, Burnham said the result could be a “turning point” for British politics and told his party that this was a final chance to change direction.

Meanwhile, traders have scaled back expectations for more aggressive interest rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE) following the release of softer inflation figures earlier this week. Furthermore, the US-Iran peace deal eased concerns about the energy shock, endorsing the view that the BoE will hold interest rates steady. This is seen as another factor undermining the GBP. The USD, on the other hand, stands firm near its highest level since late March amid the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) more hawkish tilt, signaling the possibility of at least one rate hike by the year-end.

On the geopolitical front, US Vice President JD Vance canceled his planned trip for talks with Iran in Switzerland, saying that the meeting wasn’t yet finalized. Adding to this, Israeli air strikes in Lebanon threaten to unravel the US-Iran deal. This further benefits the safe-haven USD and backs the case for an extension of the GBP/USD pair’s steep downfall from the weekly swing high, near the 1.3460 region. This, in turn, suggests that any attempted recovery could be seen as a selling opportunity as traders now look to UK monthly Retail Sales data for a fresh impetus.

Pound Sterling Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD1.17%1.70%0.74%1.14%0.66%1.61%1.32%
EUR-1.17%0.50%-0.42%-0.03%-0.53%0.43%0.14%
GBP-1.70%-0.50%-1.09%-0.52%-1.03%-0.07%-0.35%
JPY-0.74%0.42%1.09%0.39%-0.10%0.89%0.56%
CAD-1.14%0.03%0.52%-0.39%-0.52%0.50%0.16%
AUD-0.66%0.53%1.03%0.10%0.52%0.96%0.69%
NZD-1.61%-0.43%0.07%-0.89%-0.50%-0.96%-0.28%
CHF-1.32%-0.14%0.35%-0.56%-0.16%-0.69%0.28%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

Aussie Heads for Weekly Loss

The Australian dollar held below $0.705, near ten-week lows and headed for a modest weekly loss as a stronger US dollar and fading bets of additional RBA rate hikes weighed on the currency. Markets increasingly suspect the Reserve Bank of Australia has finished tightening after keeping the cash rate unchanged this week, with the odds of one more hike this year reduced to about 50%. While Governor Michele Bullock maintained that further tightening remains possible if inflation persists, markets expect it would take a sharply higher second-quarter inflation reading to trigger another move. Meanwhile, the US dollar index climbed to a one-year high after the Fed Reserve’s hawkish hold prompted traders to increase bets on further rate hikes. Nearly half of policymakers projected at least one increase this year amid growing inflation concerns. Elsewhere, a US-Iran interim deal and the resumption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz provided some support for the risk sensitive AUD.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Dollar Towers on Hawkish Fed Signals

The dollar index traded around 100.8 on Friday, hovering at its highest level since May 2025 as investors piled on rate hike bets this year following hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the Fed left rates unchanged as widely expected, but roughly half of FOMC members now anticipate at least one rate increase in 2026. The central bank also raised its inflation projections to account for the economic effects of the conflict in the Middle East. Chair Kevin Warsh declined to provide guidance on the next policy move but reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability. Meanwhile, the US-Iran interim peace agreement took effect on Thursday, bringing an end to a prolonged conflict that triggered a historic disruption to global energy supplies. While the deal helped ease geopolitical risks and pushed oil prices lower, markets remained focused on the Fed’s policy outlook and the prospect of tighter monetary conditions.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Yen Weakens Despite Verbal Interventions

The Japanese yen weakened beyond 161 per dollar on Friday, falling to its lowest level since July 2024 despite renewed verbal intervention from Japanese authorities. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Thursday that the government remains prepared to respond to excessive currency movements whenever necessary. The yen has now erased all the gains recorded on April 30, when authorities conducted a record-sized intervention to support the currency. The latest decline came despite the Bank of Japan’s gradual tightening cycle, including a 25-basis-point rate hike to 1% earlier this week aimed at addressing an energy-driven inflation shock linked to the Middle East conflict. The dollar also strengthened following the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged while signaling increasing support for additional rate hikes later this year. The widening policy divergence between Japan and the US continued to weigh on the Japanese currency.