JPY

• The cross plunged near the start of the American session despite broad Euro gains elsewhere.
• The Yen jumped after the US payrolls shock, with traders alert to intervention a week on from the joint Tokyo-Washington operation.
• German industrial and trade figures offered the Euro little help, and the ECB is in no hurry.

EUR/JPY trades on the back foot on Friday, easing away even as the Euro (EUR) posts solid gains against the US Dollar (USD). The Japanese currency surged suddenly near the start of the American session after a surprisingly weak United States (US) employment report. But the cross recovered much of those losses fairly quickly.

Japan and the United States conducted coordinated Yen-buying intervention last Friday, a rare bilateral action, and that memory is enough to make traders reluctant to sell the Yen into a US Dollar that fell over 1% against the Yen during the early American session on Friday. The Yen now drifts well away from the 40-year low it reached in July.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to adopt a cautious stance after leaving interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting. Markets currently expect only one additional rate hike before the end of the year, with a lower chance of a second increase.

Iran’s parliament speaker and top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, accused US President Donald Trump of staging “theater diplomacy” on Thursday, and under the draft plan reported by Fars, US and Israeli ships would be barred from the Strait of Hormuz. Flows through the waterway are unlikely to return to pre-war levels any time soon even if Iran and Oman finalize their framework. For an economy that imports almost all of its energy through that route, higher and less certain Crude prices erode Japan’s terms of trade, which is the mechanism that drove the Yen to four-decade lows in the first place.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/JPY trades at 182.00, retaining a mildly bearish near-term bias as it holds below both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 182.17 and the 100-period SMA at 184.70. The pair is caught under a nearby horizontal cap at 182.13, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 41 suggests subdued momentum rather than aggressive selling, hinting at a consolidative tone beneath these overhead levels.

On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at 182.13, followed by the 20-period SMA at 182.17. Asustained break above this cluster would open the way toward the next barrier at 182.69 before the broader 100-period SMA near 184.70.

On the downside, initial support aligns at 181.76, ahead of a lower horizontal floor at 181.30 where the cross found support early in the American session on Friday. A decisive breach there would reinforce the bearish bias and expose deeper retracement levels in the coming sessions.

• EUR/JPY could find initial support at the eight-month low of 179.37.
• The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 39 indicates weak momentum.
• The initial barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 183.09.

EUR/JPY halts its three-day winning streak, trading around 182.50 during the early European hours on Friday. The currency cross is retaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The short- and medium-term moving averages now act as layered overhead resistance, hinting at a capped tone while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) Indicator around 39 suggests weak momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

Yen under scrutiny as Japan and US officials push back on weakness

Analysts at Scotiabank highlight that “officials (both Japanese and US) remain concerned about the level and path of the Yen, and have been determined to push back on recent weakness.” This ongoing vigilance underscores the degree of discomfort with the current USD/JPY trajectory and reinforces the sense that policymakers are closely monitoring the currency’s performance as it drifts back toward post-intervention lows.

Further intervention to support the Japanese Yen (JPY) would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the eight-month low of 179.37, reached on August 3, followed by the nine-month low of 175.70.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross could find initial resistance at the nine-day EMA of 183.09, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.63. Further advances above these moving averages would cause a bullish emergence and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

• EUR/JPY declines to near 181.70 in Wednesday’s early European session.
• The cross keeps a negative tone, with bearish RSI momentum.
• The first upside barrier emerges at 184.90, the initial support level to watch is 181.15.

The EUR/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 181.70 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) as traders remain on alerts for further intervention from Japanese authorities following the coordinated intervention between the United States (US) and Japan.

Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran talks. Axios reported that the US, Iran, and Oman are closing in on an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington aiming for a Wednesday announcement.

The source added that the agreement under discussion sets up a 60-day temporary arrangement between Oman and Iran in the critical waterway. Fresh optimism over the Middle East could improve risk sentiment and provide some support to the riskier asset, such as the EUR against the JPY.

Yen outlook seen hinging on growth rather than faster BoJ hikes

Societe Generale argues that the policy rate path alone is unlikely to deliver a sustained recovery in the Yen. Analysts there stress that “more, or faster BoJ rate hikes won’t solve the problem either, unless the Japanese growth outlook makes them appear realistic,” underscoring their view that a credible improvement in Japan’s growth prospects is a prerequisite for any meaningful policy tightening to support the currency.

Technical Analysis: Negative outlook of EUR/JPY remains intact

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY keeps a bearish near-term tone as spot holds below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) from the Bollinger Bands and the 100-day SMA, which now act as a tight resistance cluster overhead. Price is sliding toward the lower Bollinger Band while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 34.77 stays close to oversold territory, hinting that downside pressure persists but may be approaching a fatigue zone.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the Bollinger mid-line/20-day SMA near 184.90, followed by the 100-day SMA at 185.10. A decisive daily close above this level would be needed to ease the current downside bias, with the upper Bollinger Band up at 188.65 as a more distant barrier. 

On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band around 181.15 offers the first notable support, and a clear break beneath it would expose the February 12 low of 180.81, en route to the 180.00 psychological level.