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AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains ground to near 112.50, uptrend holds above 100-day SMA

  • AUD/JPY drifts higher to around 112.40 in Thursday’s early European session. 
  • Broader positive outlook prevails above the 100-day SMA, but temporary sell-off cannot be ruled out with bearish RSI momentum. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 113.62; the initial support level is located at 112.25. 

The AUD/JPY cross gains ground near 112.40 during the early European session on Thursday, bolstered by the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Macquarie analysts said the Australian central bank is likely to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged next week while delivering a hawkish message that reinforces market expectations for an interest-rate increase in August.

Nonetheless, the potential upside for the cross might be limited amid intervention fears from Japanese authorities. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued a verbal warning, saying that the government is monitoring speculative moves and remains prepared to take decisive measures to prevent the domestic currency weakness. 

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the broader uptrend technically supported despite the latest pullback toward the lower Bollinger Band at 112.26. However, the Relative Strength Index (14) around 39 leans toward bearish momentum, suggesting recent downside pressure is not yet fully spent even as price clings to its underlying trend support.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band near 113.62, with the upper band up at 115.00 acting as the next hurdle if buyers regain control. On the downside, immediate support is reinforced by the lower Bollinger Band at 112.25, ahead of the more strategic 100-day SMA at 111.75, where a sustained break would hint at a deeper corrective phase within the broader bullish structure.

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Japanese Yen moves little after reaching six-week lows

  • USD/JPY flatlines near a six-week high of 160.56 following suspected foreign-exchange intervention by Japanese authorities.
  • Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated the government is closely monitoring currency market movements to ensure economic stability.
  • The US Dollar may regain ground as escalating Middle East conflicts drive increased global demand for safe-haven assets.

USD/JPY remains flat after two days of gains, trading around 160.50 during the Asian hours. The pair moves little after reaching a six-week high of 160.56 during earlier hours on Thursday, which could be attributed to possible foreign-exchange intervention by Japanese authorities.

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated earlier this week that the government is keeping a close watch on currency market movements. She emphasized that Japan’s stance remains unchanged regarding its preparedness to implement decisive steps when needed to ensure market stability.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely anticipated to hike interest rates next week as policymakers battle soaring energy costs driven by the Middle East conflict. Tensions escalated sharply after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced an immediate, total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, warning that any commercial or oil vessels attempting to transit the strait would be targeted.

The USD/JPY pair may further appreciate as the US Dollar (USD) may regain its ground amid rising safe-haven demand due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. Israeli military says that the Home Front Command, the branch of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) responsible for civil defense, issues an early warning after launches from Lebanon toward northern Israel.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that the US began airstrikes in Iran on Wednesday. Furthermore, President Donald Trump warned of severe military action if an interim peace deal is not finalized, accusing Tehran of stalling. Iranian officials, however, maintain they will not back down.

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EUR/JPY Price – Strengthens above 185.00, while bullish trend eyes consolidation

  • EUR/JPY gains ground to around 185.20 in Wednesday’s early European session.
  • Likelihood of hawkish stance hikes from the ECB supports the Euro.
  • The cross keeps the bullish vibe, but consolidation cannot be ruled out in near term with neutral RSI momentum.
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 186.05; the initial support level is located at 185.15.

The EUR/JPY cross gathers strength to near 185.20 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) would raise rates at its June policy meeting on Thursday.

The ECB is set to raise its key interest rate for the first time in almost three years on Thursday, becoming the first of its peers to tighten policy in response to a jump in energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East. While money markets are already pricing in a second 25 basis points (bps) hike for September, economists expect the ECB to maintain a “gently hawkish” but highly data-dependent tone without pre-committing to a fixed path.

“Lagarde may provide some indication of the ECB’s next move after she muddled communication on the rate outlook in March. We expect her to be clearer than in the past that a second hike may be in the pipeline,” said Simona Delle Chiaie, chief euro-area economist at Bloomberg. Any hawkish comments from ECB policymakers could lift the EUR against the JPY in the near term.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds a constructive near-term bias as it consolidates just above the Bollinger middle band and remains comfortably over the 100-day simple moving average, suggesting underlying demand on dips. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 49.99 is effectively neutral, hinting at a pause rather than exhaustion after the recent grind higher.

On the topside, the immediate hurdle is the Bollinger upper band near 186.05, where fresh selling interest could emerge. The next hurdle is seen at the February 9 high of 186.24, en route to the January 23 high of 186.88. On the downside, initial support is seen at the Bollinger middle band around 185.15, ahead of the 100-day SMA at 184.50, while a deeper pullback towards the lower Bollinger band near 184.25 would be expected to attract buyers as long as the broader bullish structure is preserved.

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Japanese Yen languishes despite wholesale inflation accelerates in May

  • USD/JPY steadies as the Japanese Yen receives no support after May wholesale inflation rose to a three-year high of 6.3%.
  • Surging factory-gate inflation solidifies market expectations for an imminent hawkish interest rate pivot by the Bank of Japan.
  • The US Dollar may regain ground on safe-haven demand after Iran’s IRGC claimed drone attacks on the US Fifth Fleet.

USD/JPY flatlines after experiencing volatility, trading around 160.40 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair continues to hold its ground, reflecting a struggling Japanese Yen (JPY) that has failed to find support despite a massive acceleration in wholesale inflation. Driven by surging energy costs linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict, Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 6.3% year-over-year in May. This hot printing comfortably outpaced April’s upwardly revised 5.3% figure and surpassed market consensus of 5.5%, marking the fastest pace of wholesale price growth in three years.

This dramatic uptick in Japan’s factory-gate inflation has solidified market expectations for a hawkish pivot from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). With policymakers highly sensitive to the double-whammy of a sharply depreciating JPY and rising import costs, the central bank is widely expected to lift interest rates at its policy meeting next week. Traders are now closely parsing every signal from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, as aggressive market speculation builds for consecutive rate hikes in September and December to rein in stubborn price pressures.

The USD/JPY pair may further appreciate as the safe-haven demand could support the US Dollar (USD), which could be attributed to the renewed Middle East tensions. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it attacked the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain with drones in response to US strikes on areas in southern Iran. The IRGC warned of “a more severe response” if what it describes as US “aggression” continues.

Earlier, the US launched a third wave of retaliatory strikes on Iranian coastal targets on Wednesday after Iran fired at least three ballistic missiles from Isfahan. This followed an initial round of US strikes on Tuesday, which Washington called a proportional response to Iran downing a US helicopter gunship near the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Stronger-than-expected US May jobs data have boosted expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this year. Traders will take more cues from the US CPI report later in the day. The headline US CPI is expected to show a rise of 4.2% YoY in May, compared to 3.8% in April. The core CPI is projected to show an increase of 2.9% YoY during the same period, versus 2.8% prior.

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Japanese Yen: May weaken toward 160.75 against US Dollar – UOB

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe USD/JPY as range-bound intraday between 159.90 and 160.40 after a brief spike and reversal, but maintain a slightly positive multi-day stance. They see upward momentum building tentatively, with the pair likely to rise gradually toward 160.75 while strong support at 159.60 defines the risk, and longer term highlight scope to test the top of a rising wedge near 161.15.

Dollar Yen bias remains mildly positive

“24-HOUR VIEW: The following are excerpts from our update yesterday: “The slight increase in upward momentum suggests that USD is likely to edge higher to 160.50. The major resistance at 160.75 is unlikely to come under threat. Support is at 160.05; a breach of 159.95 would suggest that the current mild upward pressure has eased.” The subsequent price movements turned out differently than we expected. USD edged to a high of 160.39, dropped to 159.87 before rebounding quickly to close largely unchanged at 160.17 (-0.07%). The price action provides no fresh clues. Today, USD could trade between 159.90 and 160.40.”

“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We revised our view to slightly positive yesterday (08 Jun, spot at 160.25). We highlighted that “upward momentum is building, albeit tentatively.” We also highlighted that USD “could rise gradually, and the level to watch is 160.75.” There is no change in our view. On the downside, a breach of 159.60 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would mean that upward momentum has faded.”

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Euro remains stronger against Japanese Yen following German Industrial Production data

  • EUR/JPY holds gains as a stronger Euro is supported by robust Germany’s Industrial Production.
  • Germany’s seasonally adjusted industrial output rebounded by 0.4% in April, meeting market expectations and recovering from March’s 0.1% decline.
  • The Japanese Yen steadies as lower oil prices temper energy inflation fears, easing market pressure for aggressive rate hikes.

EUR/JPY extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 184.90 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross holds gains as the Euro (EUR) remains stronger following the release of Industrial Production and Trade Balance data.

Industrial Output, in the Eurozone’s economic powerhouse Germany, rose by 0.4% over the month in April, the federal statistics authority Destatis said in figures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, compared with the expected 0.4% rise and a decline of 0.1% recorded in March (revised from -0.7%). Annually, the German Industrial Production came in at -0.5% in the same period, following March’s revised 3.4% fall.

Germany’s trade surplus narrowed to €14.5 billion in April 2026 from an upwardly revised €14.7 billion in March, falling short of market expectations of €15.0 billion. It was the smallest trade surplus since November, as imports grew faster than exports. Exports unexpectedly increased by 0.9% month-on-month to a near 3½-year high of €136.6 billion, accelerating from a downwardly revised 0.3% gain in March and easily beating expectations of a 0.3% decline. Meanwhile, imports climbed 1.2% month-on-month to €122.1 billion, the highest level since November 2022, though easing from a downwardly revised 4.5% increase in March.

The upside for the EUR/JPY cross remains limited as a stabilizing Japanese Yen (JPY) acts as a structural headwind. Recent pullbacks in global oil prices have helped temper fears of a severe energy-driven inflation spike, consequently easing immediate market pressure for hyper-aggressive rate hikes.

However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is still widely anticipated to tighten monetary policy later this month. Policymakers continue to grapple with underlying inflationary pressures stemming from historically elevated energy costs. In tandem with potential rate hikes, reports indicate that the BoJ will review its bond-tapering framework, with a high likelihood of scaling back its monthly asset purchases. Market participants are now turning their focus to Wednesday’s 30-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) auction, which will serve as a key barometer to gauge investor demand within this shifting, higher-yield environment.

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EUR/JPY Price Strengthens above 184.50 with bullish tone despite intervention risks

  • EUR/JPY gathers strength near 184.85 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
  • The cross keeps the bullish vibe, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out in near term with neutral RSI momentum. 
  • The initial support level is seen at 184.50; the immediate resistance level to watch is 185.12. 

The EUR/JPY cross holds positive ground around 184.85 during the early European session on Tuesday. A hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB) underpins the Euro (EUR) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). The ECB will hold its June monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike after Eurozone inflation surged to 3.2%.

Markets are on high alert for foreign exchange intervention from Japanese authorities. This, in turn, might support the JPY and act as a headwind for the cross. Japanese authorities have issued strong verbal warnings, stating that the government is fully prepared to take decisive and appropriate action to protect the domestic currency.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds a constructive bullish bias as spot remains above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger band midline. Price also sits comfortably above the lower Bollinger band, suggesting the broader uptrend structure is still intact, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.9 leans slightly soft but remains in neutral territory, hinting at consolidative rather than impulsive downside momentum.

On the downside, the initial support zone is formed by the 100-day SMA at 184.50, followed by the lower Bollinger band near 184.20, which should limit deeper pullbacks if the bullish structure is to persist. The first upside barrier emerges at the  the Bollinger band midline at 185.12, en route to the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band at 185.12. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to the 186.00 psychological level. 

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Japanese Yen hangs near one-month low vs USD; bears seem hesitant amid intervention risks

  • USD/JPY attracts some buyers on Tuesday, though the uptick lacks bullish conviction.
  • Intervention fears and BoJ rate hike bets support the JPY, capping gains for the major.
  • The Israel-Iran truce weighs on the USD and further acts as a headwind for spot prices.

The USD/JPY pair struggles to build on a modest Asian session uptick on Tuesday and remains below its highest level since April 30, set the previous day. Spot prices, however, hold above the 160.00 psychological mark and seem unaffected by a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).

Iran and Israel said that they had halted attacks on each other after an appeal from US President Donald Trump. This drags the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the safe-haven Greenback against a basket of currencies, away from a two-month high, touched on Monday, and acts as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair. Furthermore, speculations that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY) contribute to capping spot prices.

In fact, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated earlier today that the stance is unchanged and authorities are prepared for decisive measures. The JPY bulls, however, seem hesitant amid worries that Japan’s economy will remain under strain due to the Middle East conflict and the continued energy supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. This offsets Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike bets and further supports the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, firming expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year, along with the uncertainty over the US-Iran peace deal, should limit USD losses. Investors might also opt to wait for the US inflation figures – Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. This warrants some caution before confirming that the USD/JPY pair has formed a near-term top.

Japanese Yen Price Last 30 days

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 30 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD1.59%1.53%2.08%2.04%2.24%1.90%2.13%
EUR-1.59%-0.09%0.52%0.48%0.57%0.28%0.53%
GBP-1.53%0.09%0.62%0.58%0.75%0.39%0.62%
JPY-2.08%-0.52%-0.62%-0.05%0.00%-0.23%0.07%
CAD-2.04%-0.48%-0.58%0.05%0.02%-0.18%0.09%
AUD-2.24%-0.57%-0.75%-0.00%-0.02%-0.23%-0.03%
NZD-1.90%-0.28%-0.39%0.23%0.18%0.23%0.14%
CHF-2.13%-0.53%-0.62%-0.07%-0.09%0.03%-0.14%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).