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USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls turn cautious near 160.00 amid rising intervention risk

  • USD/JPY pauses for a breather as a fresh intervention warning helps limit JPY losses
  • Economic risks stemming from the Middle East conflict cap the JPY and support the pair.
  • The bullish USD sentiment backs the case for further gains amid a constructive setup.

The USD/JPY pair enters a bullish consolidation phase on Wednesday, oscillating in a narrow range just below the 160.00 psychological mark, or a one-month high touched during the Asian session. Verbal intervention by Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama offers some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY), which, along with a subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, caps spot prices.

However, economic concerns stemming from the conflict in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. In contrast, the lack of breakthrough in US-Iran peace negotiations, along with hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed), acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and helps limit downside for the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical perspective, this week’s move beyond the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the late April-early May downswing comes on top of the recent solid bounce from the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and favors bulls. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 61 suggests firm but not overextended upside momentum. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, hinting that buyers still retain control despite the proximity of recent cycle highs.

On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the late April swing high near 160.78, where a clear break would reopen the path toward fresh highs. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 78.6% retracement at 159.55, followed by the 61.8% level at 158.58 and the 50% retracement at 157.90. Deeper pullbacks would look to the 38.2% level at 157.22 and the 23.6% retracement at 156.38, ahead of a stronger demand area created by the 200-day EMA at 155.77 and the structural floor near 155.03.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY daily chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY
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EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Declines below 186.00 amid intervention fears, but bullish vibe prevails

  • EUR/JPY edges lower to near 185.90 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
  • Japan’s Katayama said the authorities are standing ready to respond appropriately to foreign exchange.
  • The positive view for the cross remains intact above the key 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 186.10; the initial support level to watch is 185.08. 

The EUR/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 185.90 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) gathers strength against the Euro (EUR) as traders are on alert for intervention from Japanese officials. 

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Wednesday that the authorities are ready to act on the foreign exchange if required, adding that she aligns with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor on several matters. 

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds a constructive bullish bias as price trades above the Bollinger middle band around and comfortably over the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact. The latest Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading at 58.43 sits in positive territory without being overbought, hinting that bullish momentum persists but has not yet reached exhaustion.

On the upside, the immediate resistance level is now aligned with the Bollinger upper band near 186.10, en route to the April 29 high of 187.42. On the other hand, the mid-line around 185.08 reinforcing a nearby demand zone. The next crucial contention level is located near the 100-day SMA at 184.47 and the lower Bollinger band close to 184.07. 

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AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Strengthens above 114.00, bullish bias holds above key technical support

  • AUD/JPY gathers strength to near 114.35 in Tuesday’s early European session.
  • The constructive outlook for the cross prevails above the key 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 114.75; the initial support level is seen at 113.85. 

The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 114.35 during the early European session on Tuesday. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the Middle East ceasefire amid mixed signals from US President Donald Trump. 

Trump stated early Tuesday that he believes an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire with Iran is reachable “over the next week.” On Monday, US President shrugged off the possible collapse of peace negotiations with Iran, saying, “I don’t care if they’re over, honestly.” 

The likelihood of stronger verbal intervention from Japanese authorities might help limit the Japanese Yen’s (JPY) losses. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday the officials stood ready to respond in the currency market as needed and refrained from commenting on recent exchange-rate moves.

The speech by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda will be the highlight later on Wednesday. Ueda could offer some hints as to whether the central bank will proceed with a rate increase the following week.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a bullish near-term bias as spot remains well above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. Price is pressing the upper side of the recent consolidation, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 57.46 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, suggesting buyers still retain control but with reduced momentum compared to the prior peak.

On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the Bollinger upper band at 114.75, and a daily close above this barrier would open the way for a continuation of the broader uptrend. On the downside, initial support emerges at the Bollinger middle band around 113.85, ahead of the lower band at 112.98, with the 100-day SMA at 111.30 acting as a deeper structural floor that would need to give way to materially challenge the prevailing bullish structure.

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USD/JPY Price Forecast: Yen languishes amid growing BoJ rate hike uncertainty

  • USD/JPY rises to near 159.45 as BoJ rate hike uncertainty weakens Japanese Yen.
  • The BoJ SoP of the April meeting showed that most policymakers expressed the need to raise interest rates in the near term.
  • Investors await the US NFP data for fresh cues on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.

The USD/JPY pair trades 0.12% higher at around 159.45 during the early European trading session on Monday. The pair gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) broadly underperforms amid uncertainty regarding whether the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates in the policy meeting on June 16.

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the British Pound.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.05%-0.10%0.13%0.07%-0.07%0.28%0.21%
EUR-0.05%-0.14%0.04%0.02%-0.07%0.24%0.14%
GBP0.10%0.14%0.19%0.15%0.02%0.38%0.27%
JPY-0.13%-0.04%-0.19%-0.03%-0.18%0.18%0.08%
CAD-0.07%-0.02%-0.15%0.03%-0.15%0.21%0.12%
AUD0.07%0.07%-0.02%0.18%0.15%0.30%0.25%
NZD-0.28%-0.24%-0.38%-0.18%-0.21%-0.30%-0.09%
CHF-0.21%-0.14%-0.27%-0.08%-0.12%-0.25%0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Higher oil prices due to the Middle East crisis-led energy supply shock have raised uncertainty over the Japan’s economic outlook.

Former BoJ Deputy Governor and current member of Japan’s Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, Masazumi Wakatabe, said last week said in a meeting that it is important to understand whether the economy can withstand tighter monetary conditions, Reuters reported.

However, the BoJ Summary of Opinions (SoP) of the April policy meeting showed that a majority of policymakers supported an interest rate hike in the near term, while warning of high inflation risks.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades slightly higher at the start of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data week. Investors will closely monitor the data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. In Monday’s session, investors will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for May, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY trades higher at around 159.45 at press time. The pair maintains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 158.84, keeping the recent uptrend structure intact.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 58 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, which suggests buyers still retain the initiative while upside momentum is steady rather than stretched.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA near 158.84, where a daily close below would hint at a deeper corrective phase and expose lower levels on the chart towards 158.00. On the upside, the pair could advance towards an almost two-year high of 160.73 if it manages to decisively break above the May 28 high at 159.65.

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EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Edges lower from upper descending channel top around 186.00

  • EUR/JPY may retest the upper boundary of the descending channel around 186.00.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index of 57 suggests upward momentum should persist.
  • The primary support appears at the nine-day EMA at 185.33.

EUR/JPY steadies after six days of gains, trading around 185.70 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross is maintaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The alignment of price over short- and medium-term moving averages hints at sustained underlying demand, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 57 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, suggesting upside pressure could persist as long as these floors remain intact.

The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the EUR/JPY cross is positioned near the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern around 186.00. The sustained break above the channel would indicate bullish confirmation. Further advance would support the EUR/JPY cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, recorded on April 17.

On the downside, the primary support lies at the nine-day EMA at 185.33, followed by the 50-day EMA of 184.98. A break below moving averages would revive the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the three-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by nearly six-month low of 180.81, reached on February 12.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the British Pound.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.10%-0.04%0.13%0.08%-0.02%0.31%0.28%
EUR-0.10%-0.12%0.00%-0.02%-0.07%0.23%0.16%
GBP0.04%0.12%0.15%0.10%-0.02%0.33%0.27%
JPY-0.13%0.00%-0.15%-0.03%-0.13%0.21%0.14%
CAD-0.08%0.02%-0.10%0.03%-0.11%0.23%0.18%
AUD0.02%0.07%0.02%0.13%0.11%0.28%0.27%
NZD-0.31%-0.23%-0.33%-0.21%-0.23%-0.28%-0.05%
CHF-0.28%-0.16%-0.27%-0.14%-0.18%-0.27%0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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Yen Stays Weak Near Key Intervention Threshold

The Japanese yen traded around 159.5 per dollar on Monday, remaining under pressure and hovering near the closely watched 160 level that previously triggered official intervention to support the currency. Data released on Friday showed that Japanese authorities spent ¥11.7 trillion intervening in foreign exchange markets in late April, confirming widespread market speculations. On the policy front, investors remain divided over whether the Bank of Japan will deliver another interest rate hike this month, as policymakers weigh growing uncertainties linked to tensions in the Middle East. Market participants are now awaiting remarks from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda later this week for further insight into the central bank’s policy outlook. Meanwhile, Japan’s capital spending was unchanged in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, pointing to a slowdown in corporate investment and raising concerns about the strength of domestic economic momentum.

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USD/JPY Price Sees more upside towards 160.70

  • USD/JPY edges up to near 159.32 as the Japanese Yen trades with caution.
  • Tokyo CPI ex. Fresh Food grew at a moderate pace of 1.3% YoY in May.
  • Japan’s FM Katayama warned that authorities could intervene in the forex market to counter excessive volatility.

The USD/JPY pair trades marginally higher to near 159.32 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The pair edges up as the Japanese Yen (JPY) trades cautiously, following the release of the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May and verbal intervention warning from Japan’s Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama.

Tokyo’s CPI ex. Fresh Food, which is closely tracked by Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials, arrived lower at 1.3% Year-on-Year (YoY), lower than estimates and the previous reading of 1.5%. The CPI data ex. Fresh Food stayed below the BoJ’s 2% target for a fourth straight month as fuel and education subsidies offset rising raw material costs from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, Reuters reports.

Meanwhile, Japan’s FM Katayama warned that authorities could intervene in the foreign exchange (Forex) market to counter excessive volatility against the Japanese Yen.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 99.00, but is close to Thursday’s low, which is 98.95.

On Thursday, the US Dollar faced a sharp selling pressure after media reports that a deal between the United States (US) and Iran has been prepared and only needs approval from President Donald Trump.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY ticks higher at around 159.32 in the Asian trade. The pair holds a constructive bullish bias as spot remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 158.78, keeping the short-term trend underpinned despite recent volatility.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 56 suggests moderate upside momentum rather than overbought conditions, allowing room for further gains while price stays supported above the EMA.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA around 158.78, where buyers are likely to defend the short-term uptrend; a decisive break below this area would expose a deeper corrective move towards the May 6 high at 157.94. Looking up, the pair aims to revisit an almost two-year high at 160.74

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EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Loses momentum to near 185.00, but bias stays bullish

  • EUR/JPY weakens to around 185.10 in Thursday’s early European session. 
  • The cross keeps the bullish vibe, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out in near term with neutral RSI momentum. 
  • The immediate resistance to watch is 185.65; the initial support level is seen at 184.70. 

The EUR/JPY cross loses momentum to near 185.10 during the early European session on Thursday. Escalations in the US-Iran conflict boost the safe-haven currency, such as the Japanese Yen (JPY) and act as a headwind for the cross. 

CNN reported on Thursday that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched an attack targeting an American air base, which they said was the source of US strikes on Iranian targets hours before. The US strikes targeted Iranian drones and a launch site near the Strait of Hormuz. 

Traders will keep an eye on the Tokyo May Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, which is due later on Friday. In case of a softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI print, this could drag the Japanese Yen lower against the Euro (EUR) in the near term. 

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds a mild bullish bias as it trades above the 100-day simple moving average and the Bollinger Bands middle line near 184.71, keeping the broader uptrend underpinned. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 50, suggesting consolidative but still slightly constructive momentum while price drifts toward the upper Bollinger band.

On the topside, the immediate resistance is the Bollinger upper band around 185.65, and a clear break above this ceiling would open the way for a renewed extension of the advance. On the downside, initial support is seen at the Bollinger middle band near 184.70 and the 100-day SMA at 184.40, with the lower Bollinger band near 183.78 acting as a deeper cushion if a corrective pullback develops.