JPY - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger July 9, 2026 No Comments

AUD/JPY Price Weakens to near 112.50, but uptrend remains constructive

AUD/JPY weakens to near 112.62 in Thursday’s early European session.
The cross keeps a constructive bullish bias, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out with neutral RSI momentum.
The initial support level is located at 112.55; the immediate resistance level to watch is 113.55.

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 112.62 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) amid escalating tensions in the Middle East after US President Donald Trump said an interim agreement to end the war with Iran was “over.”

Traders are also on high alert for possible intervention from Japanese officials. “The yen’s current weakness is excessive and fails to reflect the strong fundamentals of the Japanese economy, a misalignment that could prompt major central banks to launch coordinated intervention,” said Michael Nizard, head of multi-asset and overlay at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds above the 100-day moving average (MA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day simple moving average (SMA), which together suggest a constructive bullish bias after the recent pullback. Price also remains comfortably above the lower Bollinger band, while the upper band marks the next upside objective as the pair grinds higher; the Relative Strength Index (14) near 50 keeps momentum neutral, hinting at consolidation rather than exhaustion for now.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day MA at 112.55, followed by the Bollinger midline around 112.42 and then the lower band at 111.15, where buyers would likely defend the broader uptrend. On the other hand, the first upside barrier emerges at the June 16 high of 113.55. The next hurdle is seen at the upper Bollinger band at 113.70, en route to the May 13 high of 114.74.

Currency Hedger July 9, 2026 No Comments

Yen Pressured by US-Iran Tensions

The Japanese yen traded around 162.5 per dollar on Thursday, hovering near 40-year lows as renewed conflict between the US and Iran drove oil prices higher, adding pressure to Japan’s oil-dependent economy and weighing on the currency. The US military confirmed it had carried out strikes on Iran for a second straight day, while Tehran threatened a large-scale retaliatory operation against US military bases across the region. Meanwhile, traders continued to maintain bearish positions on the yen amid the absence of intervention from Japanese authorities despite repeated warnings from Tokyo. Investors are now awaiting official intervention data later this month to determine whether the government was behind the yen’s sharp but short-lived rally on July 2. Separately, Japan’s government revised its latest draft of the annual policy agenda, calling for appropriate monetary policy that supports stable price growth.

Currency Hedger July 8, 2026 No Comments

EUR/JPY Price Rebounds above confluence around 185.00, moving averages

EUR/JPY eyes the primary barrier at the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 185.80.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 52.81, hinting at neutral-to-firm momentum.
The currency cross could find the initial support at the VWAP of 185.20.

EUR/JPY pares its recent losses from the previous day, trading around 185.30 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross is retaining a mildly bullish bias as it holds above the Volume-weighted Average Price (VWAP) and a cluster of Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with the 50-day EMA acting as nearby trend support.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.81 sits just above its midline, hinting at steady, rather than aggressive, upside momentum while price remains supported by these underlying levels.

Daily chart technical analysis shows the EUR/JPY cross consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling that both buyers and sellers are growing increasingly aggressive as they compress the price into a narrowing range. This tight consolidation reflects a temporary balance of power, with neither side establishing clear control over the market’s direction just yet.

The initial barrier lies at the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 185.80. A break above the triangle would cause the bullish emergence and expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, primary support lies at the VWAP at 185.20, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.95 and the nine-day EMA at 184.93. Further declines would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the symmetrical triangle’s lower boundary around 183.70. A break below the triangle would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY — EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.02%	0.02%	0.15%	-0.03%	-0.22%	-0.49%	0.01%
EUR	0.02%		0.05%	0.19%	-0.01%	-0.19%	-0.47%	0.04%
GBP	-0.02%	-0.05%		0.13%	-0.05%	-0.25%	-0.51%	-0.03%
JPY	-0.15%	-0.19%	-0.13%		-0.18%	-0.35%	-0.64%	-0.15%
CAD	0.03%	0.00%	0.05%	0.18%		-0.18%	-0.47%	0.03%
AUD	0.22%	0.19%	0.25%	0.35%	0.18%		-0.28%	0.19%
NZD	0.49%	0.47%	0.51%	0.64%	0.47%	0.28%		0.49%
CHF	-0.01%	-0.04%	0.03%	0.15%	-0.03%	-0.19%	-0.49%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger July 7, 2026 No Comments

Japanese Yen strengthens amid looming intervention risks; lacks bullish conviction

USD/JPY drifts lower during the Asian session, though the downside potential seems limited.
The wide US-Japan rate differential might continue to weigh on the JPY and support the pair.
Economic risks due to Hormuz tensions further warrant some caution for aggressive JPY bulls.

The USD/JPY pair extends the previous day’s late pullback from the vicinity of mid-162.00s and attracts some follow-through sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices drop to the 161.70-161.65 region in the last hour, though the downside remains cushioned in the absence of any intervention by Japanese authorities and a supportive fundamental backdrop.

Reports last week suggested that Japanese officials are abandoning their traditional habit of telegraphing intervention risks and are starting to focus on targeting speculators. The immediate market reaction, however, seems to have faded as no action has been taken yet. Moreover, the wide gap in borrowing costs between Japan and other major economies, including the US, keeps the so-called carry trade in play and continues to undermine the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid economic risks stemming from Middle East tensions.

In fact, a maritime agency reported that an oil tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile while transiting through the critical Strait of Hormuz. This comes on top of the US-Iran standoff over the idea of Iran charging vessels for using the strait and adds to worries that Japan’s economy will remain under strain due to the continued disruption of energy supplies. Moreover, concerns about the sustainability of the fragile US-Iran peace deal benefit the US Dollar’s (USD) relative safe-haven status and support the USD/JPY pair.

On the economic data front, Japan’s nominal wages – or total cash earnings – rose 3.2% in May, slightly slower than a revised 3.6% gain in the previous month. Meanwhile, real wages rose 1.4% from a year earlier to mark a fifth consecutive month of increases, though the growth rate slowed amid ‌re-accelerating consumer inflation. Furthermore, Household Spending in Japan fell for the sixth straight month, by 0.4% YoY in May. This might complicate the BoJ’s policy tightening path and backs the case for further JPY depreciation.

Meanwhile, reduced bets for interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) act as a headwind for the USD and might keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that any corrective pullback might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that spot prices have topped out in the near-term, as traders now look to FOMC Minutes on Wednesday.

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.03%	-0.04%	-0.16%	0.04%	-0.04%	-0.07%	-0.01%
EUR	0.03%		-0.03%	-0.15%	0.05%	0.00%	-0.03%	0.01%
GBP	0.04%	0.03%		-0.11%	0.09%	0.04%	-0.00%	0.05%
JPY	0.16%	0.15%	0.11%		0.20%	0.13%	0.09%	0.15%
CAD	-0.04%	-0.05%	-0.09%	-0.20%		-0.08%	-0.09%	-0.05%
AUD	0.04%	-0.00%	-0.04%	-0.13%	0.08%		-0.04%	0.02%
NZD	0.07%	0.03%	0.00%	-0.09%	0.09%	0.04%		0.05%
CHF	0.00%	-0.01%	-0.05%	-0.15%	0.05%	-0.02%	-0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger July 6, 2026 No Comments

Goldman Sachs turns even more bearish on yen

Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its forecasts for the USD/JPY pair, becoming one of the most bearish investment banks on the Japanese currency. The bank’s strategists now expect the exchange rate to rise from their previous 12-month target of 155 to 165 yen per U.S. dollar, which would mark the weakest level for the yen since 1986—nearly 40 years ago.

Key Takeaways

Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month USD/JPY forecast from 155 to 165.
The bank also lifted its 3-month forecast from 160 to 162 and its 6-month target from 158 to 163.
The yen remains close to its weakest levels in four decades, with USD/JPY currently trading around 162.
According to Bloomberg’s survey, Goldman is now among the most bearish institutions on the Japanese currency.
Options markets imply roughly a 72% probability that USD/JPY reaches 165 by June next year.
Hedge funds are holding their largest net short positions in the yen since 2017.

Why Does Goldman Expect Further Yen Weakness?

According to Goldman Sachs FX strategist Karen Reichgott Fishman, three key factors are driving the bank’s revised outlook:

persistently high U.S. Treasury yields,
mounting fiscal pressures in Japan,
and the Bank of Japan’s very gradual pace of interest rate hikes.

At the same time, Goldman acknowledges that the yen already appears significantly undervalued based on its fundamental valuation models. However, that alone is not enough to trigger a sustained recovery. The bank argues that the wide interest rate differential between the United States and Japan, together with the divergence in monetary policy, continues to strongly favor the U.S. dollar.

Carry Trades Remain a Major Driver

Goldman Sachs continues to favor using the yen as the preferred funding currency for carry trades. The strategy is straightforward:

investors borrow low-cost yen,
sell the currency in the FX market,
and invest the proceeds in higher-yielding assets such as U.S. bonds or emerging-market currencies.

As long as the Bank of Japan maintains relatively accommodative financial conditions, carry trades are likely to remain attractive, adding further depreciation pressure on the yen.

Can Japan Stop USD/JPY From Rising?

Goldman remains skeptical about the effectiveness of future currency interventions. Although Japan’s Ministry of Finance has hinted that future interventions could become less predictable, the bank believes even direct yen-buying operations would likely generate only a temporary correction. Unless there is a meaningful decline in U.S. Treasury yields, a more hawkish Bank of Japan, or a significant narrowing of the U.S.-Japan interest rate gap, the fundamental drivers of yen weakness are likely to remain firmly in place.

Markets Are Increasingly Pricing in USD/JPY at 165

One notable aspect of Goldman’s outlook is how closely it aligns with broader market positioning. Currently:

hedge funds hold their largest net short yen positions in eight years,
FX derivatives imply roughly a 72% probability of USD/JPY reaching 165 by the middle of next year,
and an increasing number of investors view shorting the yen as one of the most crowded trades in global currency markets.

While this reinforces the prevailing uptrend, it also increases the risk of sharp corrections should expectations for the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Japan change unexpectedly.

What Could Change the Outlook?

The key near-term event will be the release of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Investors will focus primarily on:

signals regarding future Fed rate cuts,
the direction of U.S. Treasury yields,
upcoming Bank of Japan policy decisions,
and the possibility of intervention by Japanese authorities.

A hawkish set of Fed minutes could strengthen the U.S. dollar further, putting renewed pressure on both the yen and the euro. Conversely, weaker U.S. economic data could lower Treasury yields and provide temporary relief for non-dollar currencies.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis (D1)

USD/JPY remains in a strong uptrend and continues to trade within a well-defined ascending price channel. The lower boundary of the channel is currently located near 158, a level that was last tested in May. In the short term, resistance is seen around 162.8 , corresponding to the pair’s recent swing highs. A sustained break above this level could reinforce bullish momentum, while a rejection may trigger another pullback toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel. 165 level i now probably the strongest resistance zone.

Currency Hedger July 6, 2026 No Comments

EUR/JPY Price Tests 185.00 after breaking above moving averages

EUR/JPY could test the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 185.90.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 51, hinting at neutral-to-firm momentum.
Initial support aligns with the 50-day EMA of 184.91.

EUR/JPY gains ground for the second successive day, trading around 185.00 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross holds a constructive near-term bias as it trades above the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) is reinforcing underlying demand around 184.31. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 51, reflecting neutral-to-firm momentum as the spot price solidifies above key dynamic support levels.

The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the EUR/JPY cross is remaining within the symmetrical triangle, indicating that both buyers and sellers are becoming increasingly aggressive, squeezing the price into a tighter and tighter range. Neither side has taken control yet, creating a temporary balance of power.

Further advances would support the EUR/JPY cross to test the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 185.90. A break above the triangle would cause the bullish emergence and expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, initial support lies at the 50-day EMA of 184.91, followed by the nine-day EMA at 184.71. Further declines would expose the symmetrical triangle’s lower boundary around 183.60, followed by the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.02%	0.05%	0.29%	0.07%	0.13%	0.37%	0.11%
EUR	-0.02%		0.03%	0.26%	0.05%	0.12%	0.38%	0.09%
GBP	-0.05%	-0.03%		0.22%	-0.02%	0.04%	0.32%	0.07%
JPY	-0.29%	-0.26%	-0.22%		-0.23%	-0.16%	0.06%	-0.12%
CAD	-0.07%	-0.05%	0.02%	0.23%		0.05%	0.31%	0.07%
AUD	-0.13%	-0.12%	-0.04%	0.16%	-0.05%		0.26%	0.04%
NZD	-0.37%	-0.38%	-0.32%	-0.06%	-0.31%	-0.26%		-0.26%
CHF	-0.11%	-0.09%	-0.07%	0.12%	-0.07%	-0.04%	0.26%

Currency Hedger July 6, 2026 No Comments

Japanese Yen weakens under high import costs despite JGB yield hitting 30-year highs

USD/JPY rises as the Japanese Yen falls amid high import costs.
10-year JGB yield reaches a fresh 30-year high of 2.79%.
The US Dollar remains strong as markets price in multiple Fed rate hikes this year.

USD/JPY extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 161.70 during the Asian hours on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) is caught in a high-stakes tug-of-war, buckling under surging import costs even as 10-year JGB yields hit a fresh 30-year high of 2.79%. This deep market divide has traders on high alert for immediate verbal intervention from Tokyo.

The USD/JPY pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds its ground, buoyed by market expectations of multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes later this year. This comes despite easing global inflation concerns, which have been helped by oil flows normalizing through the critical Strait of Hormuz.

The CME FedWatch tool shows financial markets are pricing in a 77.3% chance of interest rate hikes by year-end. Investors are now looking ahead to Wednesday’s release of the Fed’s June policy Meeting Minutes to gain clearer insights into the future path of interest rates.

Recent US labor data have forced Wall Street to aggressively rethink this hawkish outlook. The latest Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report revealed the US economy added a mere 57,000 jobs last month, severely missing the market’s forecast of 110,000. While the headline unemployment rate did manage an unexpected drop to 4.2% from May’s 4.3%, the dramatic hiring slowdown strongly signals that the broader economy is cooling down.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh firmly reaffirmed the central bank’s independent commitment to its 2% price stability target. Notably, he also acknowledged that inflation risks and expectations have finally begun to moderate over the past month.

Currency Hedger July 3, 2026 No Comments

AUD/JPY Price – Holds gains near 112.00, but bearish bias persists below key moving averages

AUD/JPY edges higher to near 111.75 in Friday’s early European session.
The cross keeps the bearish vibe, with subdued RSI momentum.
The initial support level is located at 111.15; the immediate resistance level to watch is 112.40.

The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 111.75 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) following the Chinese economic data. China’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) eased slightly to 54.1 in June from 54.4 in May, according to RatingDog on Friday.

However, this figure still marked the third-steepest increase in services activity in nearly three years. Services exports grew for a second consecutive month, expanding at the fastest rate since October 2024.

The potential upside might be limited amid fears of intervention from Japanese authorities. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that officials are ready to act appropriately on currency fluctuations.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds below a dense support band defined by the 100-day Moving Average (MA) and the middle Bollinger simple moving average, hinting downtrend in the near term. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers just above 40, hinting at subdued bullish conviction while stopping short of outright oversold conditions.

On the downside, initial support emerges around the lower Bollinger Band near 111.15, where sellers could pause before targeting deeper retracements. On the topside, bulls would need a daily close back above the 100-day MA at 112.40 and the Bollinger midline at 112.42 to ease the current bearish pressure and open the door for a more sustained recovery toward the broader consolidation highs.