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Japanese Yen hits one-month lows against US Dollar, boosting intervention risks

  • USD/JPY extends gains on Wednesday and reaches one-month highs right below 159.50.
  • BoJ Governor Ueda warned about second-round effects from inflation.
  • Investors will be looking at Tokyo CPI data later this week, to confirm a rate hike in June.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) keeps drifting lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. The USD/JPY pair ticks higher for the fourth consecutive day, reaching fresh one-month highs at 159.45, and nearing the key 160.00 level, considered the limit of tolerable Yen weakness for Japanese authorities.

The market has ignored hawkish comments by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, who expressed his concerns about the second-round effects of inflation if the energy shock threatens wages, expectations, and price-setting behaviour.

These comments support the view that the central bank will raise interest rates at its June 15 meeting. The positive impact on the Yen, however, has been offset by investors’ concerns about the Japanese economy’s exposure to high Crude prices and the relatively lower Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields.

Markets will be attentive to a string of Japanese macroeconomic data on Friday, with particular interest in the Tokyo Consumer Prices Index figures, to confirm June’s BoJ decision. Core inflation figures are expected to have remained growing at a steady pace in May, while the Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged, and retail sales are expected to have eased in April.

The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains supported by the hawkish repricing of the Federal Reserve’s stance. Recent data has eased concerns about the US labour market, prompting investors to ramp up bets of an interest rate hike before the year’s end. US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index figures, due on Thursday, will be carefully analysed to contrast these views and are likely to set the US Dollar’s near-term direction.

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Euro hits fresh monthly highs with Japanese Yen weakness raising intervention concerns

  • EUR/JPY rallies for the fourth consecutive day and hits fresh monthly highs above 185.46.
  • BoJ Ueda’s comments backing an upcoming rate hike have failed to support the Yen.
  • In Europe, ECB policymakers have endorsed hopes of a tightening move in June.

The Euro (EUR) extends its rally against the Japanese Yen (JPY) for the fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, reaching above 185.46 for the first time since an alleged intervention on April 30. The JPY has failed to draw support from Bank of Japan Governor (BoJ) Ueda’s hawkish comments and is dropping against its main peers, raising concerns of another intervention. 

Ueda warned about second-round effects from inflation on Wednesday and stated that central banks should not look at Oil prices in isolation, because a temporary energy shock “may turn lasting if it alters wages, expectations and price-setting behaviour.”

These comments feed expectations that the BoJ will tighten its monetary policy at its June 15 meeting. The positive impact on the Yen, however, was minimal, with investors’ concerns about the Japanese economy’s exposure to high Crude prices and the comparatively low yield of Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) undermining speculative demand for the Yen.

In the Eurozone, recent comments from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers strengthened the case for a rate hike in June and provided support for the Euro. ECB Board member Isabel Schnabel said on Tuesday that “looking through the inflation spike is no longer an option” and that a June rate will be needed.  Also on Tuesday, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane showed comfortable when asked about market speculation about an upcoming rate hike at an interview with Nikkei.

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British Pound remains close to monthly peak vs Japanese Yen amid Mideast tensions

  • GBP/JPY regains positive traction on Wednesday and draws support from a combination of factors.
  • A modest USD downtick benefits the GBP, while economic concerns due to Iran risks weigh on the JPY.
  • Bulls seem rather unaffected by divergent BoJ-BoE expectations and JPY intervention speculations.

The GBP/JPY cross attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day’s modest pullback from the 214.65-214.70 region, or a fresh monthly peak, and sticks to its modest intraday gains through the early European session on Wednesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 214.35-214.40 area, up 0.10% for the day, and seem poised to appreciate further amid a supportive fundamental backdrop.

The British Pound (GBP) benefits from a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick, which, along with the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the Japanese Yen (JPY), validates the near-term positive outlook for the GBP/JPY cross. In fact, the JPY has been underperforming against major global currencies amid economic concerns stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict and the continued disruptions to energy supplies.

In fact, shipping traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz remains drastically reduced due to Iran’s restrictions and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Furthermore, the US and Iran remain at odds over key issues, including Tehran’s nuclear program and the strategic waterway. This keeps geopolitical risk premium in play and continues to undermine the JPY, despite hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations.

BoJ Deputy Governor Himino Ryozo said on Tuesday that the central bank will continue to raise the policy rate based on economic activity, prices, and financial conditions. Even speculations that Japanese authorities will step in again to prop up the domestic currency do little to impress the JPY bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the GBP/JPY cross is to the upside and backing the case for further gains.

Meanwhile, traders pushed back expectations for the likely timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) to December after the UK Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) unexpectedly slowed to the 2.8% YoY rate in April. Adding to this, the UK political chaos and growing calls for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step down might hold back the GBP bulls from placing aggressive bets and cap the GBP/JPY cross.

Japanese Yen Price This Month

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this month. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.75%1.15%1.77%1.78%0.73%0.60%0.48%
EUR-0.75%0.38%0.96%0.98%0.00%-0.12%-0.30%
GBP-1.15%-0.38%0.58%0.64%-0.40%-0.52%-0.69%
JPY-1.77%-0.96%-0.58%0.00%-1.03%-1.26%-1.33%
CAD-1.78%-0.98%-0.64%-0.00%-1.04%-1.27%-1.30%
AUD-0.73%0.00%0.40%1.03%1.04%-0.13%-0.30%
NZD-0.60%0.12%0.52%1.26%1.27%0.13%-0.17%
CHF-0.48%0.30%0.69%1.33%1.30%0.30%0.17%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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GBP retreats from monthly high vs JPY; downside seems limited

  • GBP/JPY attracts some sellers on Tuesday and is pressured by a combination of factors.
  • Rebounding USD, delayed BoE rate hike bets, and UK political chaos undermine the GBP.
  • Hawkish comments from BoJ’s Himino support the JPY and contribute to the modest fall.

The GBP/JPY cross edges lower during the Asian session on Tuesday and erodes a part of the previous day’s strong gains to the 214.70 region, or a fresh monthly peak. Spot prices, however, lack follow-through selling and currently trade around the 214.35 area, down just over 0.10% for the day.

A combination of factors exert some downward pressure on the British Pound (GBP), which, in turn, fails to assists the GBP/JPY cross to build on the recent move up witnessed over the past week or so. Investors pushed back their expectation for the likely timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) after the UK Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) unexpectedly slowed to the 2.8% YoY rate in April, from 3.3% in the previous month. Apart from this, the UK political chaos, amid growing calls for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step down, and the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) buying further undermine the GBP.

The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, draws some support from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Himino Ryozo, saying that the central bank will continue to raise the policy rate based on economic activity, prices, and financial conditions. This further contributes to the mildly offered tone surrounding the GBP/JPY cross. The JPY bulls, however, seem hesitant on the back of concerns that Japan’s economy will come under substantial strains due to continued disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East. This, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the currency pair and warrants some caution before positioning for any further intraday fall.

There isn’t any relevant market-moving economic data due for release on Tuesday. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the GBP/JPY pair’s one-week-old move up has run out of steam and positioning for any meaningful decline. Even from a technical perspective, the recent goodish rebound from the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) pivotal support near the 211.00 mark favors bullish traders and backs the case for the emergence of dip-buying at lower levels.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.08%0.11%0.02%0.04%0.03%0.26%0.05%
EUR-0.08%0.07%-0.06%-0.02%-0.02%0.21%-0.03%
GBP-0.11%-0.07%-0.11%-0.09%-0.07%0.13%-0.07%
JPY-0.02%0.06%0.11%0.03%0.04%0.24%0.05%
CAD-0.04%0.02%0.09%-0.03%0.02%0.24%0.02%
AUD-0.03%0.02%0.07%-0.04%-0.02%0.22%-0.00%
NZD-0.26%-0.21%-0.13%-0.24%-0.24%-0.22%-0.22%
CHF-0.05%0.03%0.07%-0.05%-0.02%0.00%0.22%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/JPY Price Hovers around 185.00, descending channel top

  • EUR/JPY hovers near the upper boundary of the channel around 185.00.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index sits at 49.05 near neutral, signaling that momentum has cooled from prior overbought readings.
  • The initial support appears at the 50-day EMA of 184.86.

EUR/JPY inches lower after posting modest gains in the previous day, trading around 184.90 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross holds a constructive bias as it trades above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), clustered just below 185.00 and suggesting underlying demand on shallow pullbacks.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.05 sits near neutral, hinting that momentum has cooled from prior overbought readings but without signalling outright downside pressure while price stays supported by these short- and medium-term EMAs.

However, the technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the EUR/JPY cross is positioned on the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern, indicating a potential bullish reversal. A sustained break above the channel would cause an emergence of a bullish bias.

Further advances above the channel would support the EUR/JPY cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, the immediate support lies at the 50-day EMA of 184.86, aligned with the nine-day EMA at 184.84. A break below these moving averages would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the three-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by a five-month low of 180.81, which was reached on February 12.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.06%0.08%0.00%0.03%0.00%0.23%0.04%
EUR-0.06%0.06%-0.06%-0.02%-0.02%0.19%-0.02%
GBP-0.08%-0.06%-0.09%-0.06%-0.07%0.15%-0.05%
JPY0.00%0.06%0.09%0.02%0.03%0.22%0.05%
CAD-0.03%0.02%0.06%-0.02%0.01%0.22%0.02%
AUD-0.00%0.02%0.07%-0.03%-0.01%0.21%0.01%
NZD-0.23%-0.19%-0.15%-0.22%-0.22%-0.21%-0.20%
CHF-0.04%0.02%0.05%-0.05%-0.02%-0.01%0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains momentum, holding bullish bias above 100-day EMA

  • AUD/JPY strengthens to near 113.80 in Monday’s early European session. 
  • The cross keeps a constructive bias above the 100-day EMA.  
  • The immediate resistance level emerges at 114.72; the initial support level to watch is 113.65. 

The AUD/JPY cross gains ground to around 113.80 during the early European trading hours on Monday. Hopes of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz buoyed risk appetite, supporting the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). 

The United States (US) and Iran signaled progress in efforts to resolve the conflict, but key details of a framework agreement are still under negotiation, and a US official said it could take a few more days to finalize. However, US President Donald Trump stated that a deal is close, but the US blockade on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz would “remain in full force” until an agreement was signed. 

On the other hand, markets slash the chance of more interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) after a surprise rise in the jobless rate. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the Aussie. Unemployment Rate in Australia climbed to 4.5% in April, up from 4.3% in March. This figure registered the highest in about four and a half years. 

The odds of a rate hike at the RBA’s next meeting dropped to just 3%, from 13% before the release of the employment report, according to financial market pricing provided by Westpac.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY maintains a constructive bullish bias as the spot holds above the Bollinger middle band and the 100-day moving average. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers near 54, suggesting steady but tempered upside momentum rather than a blow-off phase.

On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the upper Bollinger band at 114.72, where a clear break would open the door to further gains within the broader uptrend. On the downside, initial support is seen at the day’s open pivot around the Bollinger middle band at 113.65, followed by the lower band near 112.53. Deeper pullbacks would likely lean on the 100-day moving average around 110.80 to preserve the broader bullish structure.

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USD/JPY gains traction on US-Iran peace progress

  • USD/JPY loses ground to near 158.85 in Monday’s Asian session. 
  • US inches toward Iran peace deal.  
  • Markets expect a June BoJ rate hike despite softer-than-expected Japan CPI inflation data. 

The USD/JPY pair edges lower to around 158.85, snapping the two-day winning streak during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid signs of a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Washington and Iran had “largely negotiated” a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of ‌Hormuz, per Reuters.

“Markets have become conditioned to be incredibly patient on a tangible breakthrough, but the base case of a deal remains firm, with the weekend news providing further conviction, even if the timing remains unclear,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd in Melbourne.

A lack of clarity over when the critical waterway would open kept enthusiasm in check. Trump stated that the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz “will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.”

Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.4% YoY in April, compared to 1.5% in March. Meanwhile, core CPI inflation eased to a four-year low of 1.4% YoY during the same period. The data is among the factors the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will scrutinize at June’s policy meeting, where the board is widely expected to raise its short-term policy rate to 1.0% from 0.75%.

Analysts see inflation accelerating in the coming months, as elevated oil costs and supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict prompt firms to raise prices for a broad range of products. 

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EUR/JPY Price Tests 185.00 barrier near descending channel top

  • EUR/JPY could test the immediate resistance at the upper boundary of the channel around 185.10.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index sits near 50, hinting at neutral but stabilizing momentum.
  • The initial support appears at the 50-day EMA of 184.85.

EUR/JPY extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 184.90 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair is holding a mild bullish bias as it consolidates above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which cluster just below price around the mid-184s and reinforce a nearby demand zone.

Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits close to the 50 line, hinting at neutral but stabilizing momentum that could allow the cross to extend gains while it remains supported by these short- and medium-term trend gauges.

However, the technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the EUR/JPY cross is still moving sideways within a descending channel pattern, indicating an ongoing bearish bias. A sustained break above the channel would offer a bearish confirmation.

The immediate resistance lies at the upper boundary of the channel around 185.10. Further advances would support the EUR/JPY cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

The immediate support lies at the 50-day EMA of 184.85, followed by the nine-day EMA at 184.79. A break below these moving averages would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the three-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by a five-month low of 180.81, which was reached on February 12.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.35%-0.40%-0.27%-0.17%-0.59%-0.51%-0.36%
EUR0.35%-0.06%0.07%0.16%-0.27%-0.17%-0.03%
GBP0.40%0.06%0.15%0.22%-0.20%-0.11%0.02%
JPY0.27%-0.07%-0.15%0.09%-0.37%-0.29%-0.16%
CAD0.17%-0.16%-0.22%-0.09%-0.43%-0.35%-0.23%
AUD0.59%0.27%0.20%0.37%0.43%0.08%0.21%
NZD0.51%0.17%0.11%0.29%0.35%-0.08%0.12%
CHF0.36%0.03%-0.02%0.16%0.23%-0.21%-0.12%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).