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Chart of The Day – Is The USD/JPY in a stable trend or at a turning point?

USDJPY is trading slightly lower this morning at 162.70 (-0.15%) after hitting new multi-year highs around 163, as the market awaits the key U.S. payrolls report.

Context of Today’s NFP Data

Today’s June payrolls report is the main catalyst of the day—the consensus expects a marked slowdown to about 110,000 jobs following a surprisingly strong May reading of 172,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3% and wage growth accelerating to 3.5% y/y. The market is trying to assess whether May’s surge represented a genuine labor market recovery or merely a one-off effect (including the World Cup in the U.S.). Employment growth this year has averaged above 80,000, which supports the scenario of a resilient labor market. CBA warns that another positive surprise could push USD/JPY toward 165 and test the Japanese authorities’ determination to defend the yen, while a weak reading (below 70,000–90,000) would ease pressure on the Fed to remain hawkish and could trigger a downward correction in the pair.

Technical Analysis

The price broke through key resistance levels at 159.52 and 160.52 JPY with momentum, moving clearly above the 50-day EMA (160.29), the 100-day EMA (159.21), and the 200-day EMA (157.31), confirming a strong uptrend. However, the RSI at 71.8–76.2 signals overbought conditions on the daily chart, which historically has preceded short-term consolidations or corrections, especially near multi-year highs. The trend remains clearly bullish for the dollar (bearish for the yen), and the 162–163 range also represents an area of heightened risk of currency intervention by Japanese authorities. Source: xStation

A Brief Look at Data from Japan

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.0% in June—the highest level in 31 years—but the market does not expect another hike until the October–December 2026 window, even though about 90% of economists anticipate one more hike by December. This slow pace of policy normalization by the BoJ, coupled with the hawkish stance of the Fed, is the main structural reason why the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan remains wide and is sustaining the yen’s long-term downward trend—verbal interventions by Japanese officials have so far failed to permanently reverse this trend.

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Australian dollar holds ground vs Japanese Yen amid May Trade Deficit

  • AUD/JPY remains calm following missing domestic trade data expectations.
  • Australia’s Trade Balance shifted to a A$3,018M deficit in May, reversing April’s surplus.
  • The Japanese Yen may receive support amid the potential for government intervention.

AUD/JPY remains flat after recovering daily losses, trading around 112.10 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross held its ground as the Australian Dollar (AUD) showed resilience, even after domestic trade data significantly missed market expectations.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the Trade Balance unexpectedly swung into a deficit of A$3,018 million in May, a sharp reversal from the previous month’s revised surplus of A$1,383 million. This fell well short of the market consensus, which had anticipated a surplus of A$2,200 million. The downturn was primarily driven by a 6.9% month-on-month plunge in exports, compounded by a 2.6% increase in imports.

The AUD/JPY cross moves little as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under intense pressure despite mounting evidence that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may continue normalizing its monetary policy. Japan’s latest Q2 Tankan Large Manufacturing Index climbed to 22 from 17 prior, the highest level in eight years, strengthening the case for further interest rate hikes later this year.

The JPY continues to languish near its weakest level against the US Dollar (USD) in four decades. This prolonged weakness has kept traders on high alert for potential government intervention, which could put downward pressure on the AUD/JPY cross, especially ahead of a US public holiday when thinner market liquidity could magnify the impact of any official action. Reinforcing this caution, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated warnings that authorities stand ready to respond appropriately to currency market developments at any time.

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EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Edges lower below 185.00, while near-term bullish bias holds

  • EUR/JPY posts modest losses near 184.95 in Thursday’s early European session.
  • The cross keeps a bullish near-term tone, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out amid neutral RSI momentum.
  • The first upside barrier is seen at 185.00; the initial support level to watch is 184.90.

The EUR/JPY cross trades on a negative note around 184.95 during the early European session on Thursday. Eurozone inflation fell more than expected in June, easing pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise rates at its next meeting on July 23. This, in turn, could weigh on the Euro (EUR) against the Japanese Yen (JPY).

Data released by Eurostat on Wednesday showed that Eurozone inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), dropped to 2.8% YoY in June from 3.2% in May. This figure came in below the consensus of 3.0%.

Morgan Stanley economists said softer Eurozone June inflation could also “lower the bar a touch for the ECB to be on hold in September,” adding that energy pressures likely had a “limited” direct impact on eurozone prices.

Following Wednesday’s print, traders continued to anticipate the ECB to deliver another quarter-point rate rise by the end of this year, according to Morningstar.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds above the Bollinger Bands middle line and the 100-day moving average, keeping a mildly bullish near-term tone as price gravitates near recent highs. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers around 50, suggesting balanced momentum and favoring a continuation of range-bound gains rather than an impulsive breakout.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 185.00 psychological level, en route to the June 30 high of 185.86. The next hurdle emerges at the Bollinger Bands upper band near 186.15, where bullish attempts could meet profit-taking. 

On the downside, initial support is seen at the Bollinger middle band at 184.90, followed by the 100-day moving average at 184.65; a deeper pullback would expose the lower Bollinger band support around 183.65.

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USD/JPY Price – Extends rally to near 162.70 amid soaring US bond yields

  • USD/JPY rises to near 167.73 as US Treasury Yields soar, following upbeat US JOLTS Job Openings data.
  • Investors shift their focus to the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for June.
  • Japan’s officials have signaled that they are ready to intervene to support the Yen.

The USD/JPY pair trades 0.1% higher to near 162.73 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The pair reflects strength as surging United States (US) Treasury Yields have strengthened the US Dollar (USD).

In the European trade, 10-year US Treasury Yields are up 0.18% to 4.47%, extending Tuesday’s little over 2% gains. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up 0.16% to near 101.33.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.12%0.14%0.08%0.10%0.36%0.02%0.05%
EUR-0.12%0.02%-0.04%-0.01%0.26%-0.11%-0.05%
GBP-0.14%-0.02%-0.06%-0.03%0.22%-0.13%-0.05%
JPY-0.08%0.04%0.06%0.00%0.29%-0.09%-0.01%
CAD-0.10%0.01%0.03%-0.01%0.27%-0.11%-0.02%
AUD-0.36%-0.26%-0.22%-0.29%-0.27%-0.37%-0.29%
NZD-0.02%0.11%0.13%0.09%0.11%0.37%0.09%
CHF-0.05%0.05%0.05%0.01%0.02%0.29%-0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

US bond yields are soaring due to signs of improving US job market conditions. On Tuesday, the US JOLTS Job Openings data for May arrived at 7.594 million fresh jobs, higher than 7.3 million estimates and the previous reading of 7.585 million.

Meanwhile, investors await the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for June, which will be released during the North American session.

On the Tokyo front, investors expect the Japanese administration to intervene anytime soon to support the falling Japanese Yen (JPY). On Tuesday, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said that the administration is always ready to take necessary action on Forex; however, he didn’t deliver any comments regarding specific FX levels.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY trades higher at around 162.73, extending its bullish bias as spot holds well above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 161.19. The overall trend of the pair is bullish, following the breakout of the Rising Channel formation.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 78.45 sits deep in overbought territory, suggesting upside momentum remains strong but also warns that the pair could be vulnerable to bouts of corrective pullback even within the broader uptrend.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the Rising Channel breakout region near 161.75, followed by the 20-day EMA near 161.19. Looking up, the pair could extend the rally towards 163.00 and 164.00.

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EUR/JPY Price – Eyes 186.00 amid constructive bullish bias

  • EUR/JPY could test the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle around 186.00.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 57 indicates firm bullish momentum, leaving plenty of room for further gains.
  • Initial support sits at VWAP and clustered EMAs just below 185.50, providing a solid floor for buyers.

EUR/JPY moves little after four days of gains, trading around 185.70 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross is maintaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the session Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) at 185.29 and both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) around 184.95–184.99. This positioning suggests dip-buying interest remains in place.

Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 57.0 points to firm but not overextended upside momentum, leaving room for further gains as long as price stays supported above these nearby averages.

The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the EUR/JPY cross is positioned near the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle around 186.00, indicating that the asset is gearing up for a potential breakout. Further advances above the triangle would strengthen the bullish bias and support the currency cross to test the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, initial support aligns first with the VWAP and clustered EMAs just below 185.50. A break below this confluence support zone would expose the symmetrical triangle’s lower boundary around 183.50, followed by the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.16%0.21%0.16%0.16%0.42%0.19%0.13%
EUR-0.16%0.04%-0.02%-0.00%0.27%0.00%-0.04%
GBP-0.21%-0.04%-0.04%-0.03%0.21%-0.05%-0.06%
JPY-0.16%0.02%0.04%-0.02%0.27%-0.01%-0.04%
CAD-0.16%0.00%0.03%0.02%0.28%-0.00%-0.02%
AUD-0.42%-0.27%-0.21%-0.27%-0.28%-0.27%-0.29%
NZD-0.19%-0.01%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.27%-0.02%
CHF-0.13%0.04%0.06%0.04%0.02%0.29%0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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AUD/JPY Price – Softens below 112.50, bias turns mildly bearish

  • AUD/JPY softens to near 112.20 in Wednesday’s early European session.
  • The cross maintains a mildly bearish bias in the near term, with soft RSI momentum.
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 112.32; the initial support level is located at 111.25.

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 112.20 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as traders are on alert for possible intervention from Japanese authorities.

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that the government was ready to take appropriate action against excessive currency moves. Additionally, Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated that the government will work to build an economy less vulnerable to foreign-exchange volatility while remaining prepared to intervene in currency markets if necessary.

On the other hand, a hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might help limit the Aussie’s losses. According to the RBA Minutes from its June meeting, monetary policy needed to remain restrictive to remove excess demand in the economy. Markets were pricing only about 10 basis points (bps) of additional tightening by year-end, while pricing about 17 bps of easing by 2027, per Reuters.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY keeps a mildly bearish near-term tone as it slips just under the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands midline. Price holding below these clustered moving-average resistances suggests rallies are likely to meet supply overhead, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 44 points to soft but not extreme downside momentum.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA at 112.32, with the Bollinger midline around 112.62 acting as the next cap, ahead of the upper Bollinger band near 114.01. On the downside, the first noteworthy support emerges at the lower Bollinger band around 111.25, where a break would open the door to a deeper correction within the broader range.

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Australian Dollar struggles against Japanese Yen despite hawkish RBA Minutes

  • AUD/JPY falls despite hawkish RBA Minutes showing readiness to raise rates further if financial conditions require it.
  • China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs both rose, beating market expectations to signal steady economic expansion.
  • Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama warned Tuesday that the government will intervene appropriately to address volatile currency moves as needed.

AUD/JPY loses ground after remaining flat in the previous day, trading around 111.40 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross remains subdued as the Australian Dollar (AUD) holds losses following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Meeting Minutes and key Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from China.

The RBA June monetary policy Meeting Minutes revealed that while the board views current financial conditions as somewhat tight, it remains prepared to implement further rate hikes if necessary to ensure price stability. The central bank highlighted that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses a dual threat to the economic outlook, presenting significant upside risks to inflation alongside downside risks to overall growth.

China, Australia’s close trading partner, showed stronger-than-expected resilience in June. The official Manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.3 from the previous 50.0, beating market expectations of 50.1. Simultaneously, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.2 from May’s 50.1, comfortably defying the consensus forecast of a contractionary 49.9 print and signaling expansion across both sectors.

The downside of the AUD/JPY cross is limited by persistent weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY), which remains under pressure due to the wide interest rate gap between Japan and other major economies. This ongoing depreciation has kept policymakers concerned and investors on high alert for potential currency intervention by Tokyo. Highlighting this stance, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated on Tuesday that the government “will respond appropriately to currency moves at any time as needed.”

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  • EUR/JPY weakens to near 184.85 in Tuesday’s early European session.
  • Japan’s Katayama said the government was ready to take appropriate action against excessive currency moves.
  • Traders reduce their bets on the ECB rate hikes this year.

The EUR/JPY cross loses ground to around 184.85 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) rebounds against the Euro (EUR) as traders on alert for possible intervention from Japanese authorities. Germany’s Retail Sales and inflation data will be published later in the day.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on Tuesday reiterated the authorities stood ready to respond appropriately at any time. Meanwhile, Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said that the Japanese government will work to build an economy less vulnerable to foreign-exchange volatility while remaining prepared to intervene in currency markets if necessary. Kihara also declined to comment on the Japanese Yen’s current level.

“It’s a question of when, not if, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) intervenes again to support the yen,” said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a speech opening her institution’s annual retreat on Monday that Europe is becoming less vulnerable to outside shocks thanks to a better financial framework and progress on the green transition. Lagarde emphasized that tensions subside amid a peace deal, which is “far from assured.” Policymakers must decide whether further monetary tightening is needed.

Markets have pared expectations for future ECB rate increases as energy prices retreat. Oxford Economics and Capital Economics expect the ECB won’t raise the interest rates further, though investors are still pricing one more quarter-point move, which would bring the deposit rate to 2.50%.