The Japanese yen weakened beyond 161 per dollar on Friday, falling to its lowest level since July 2024 despite renewed verbal intervention from Japanese authorities. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Thursday that the government remains prepared to respond to excessive currency movements whenever necessary. The yen has now erased all the gains recorded on April 30, when authorities conducted a record-sized intervention to support the currency. The latest decline came despite the Bank of Japan’s gradual tightening cycle, including a 25-basis-point rate hike to 1% earlier this week aimed at addressing an energy-driven inflation shock linked to the Middle East conflict. The dollar also strengthened following the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged while signaling increasing support for additional rate hikes later this year. The widening policy divergence between Japan and the US continued to weigh on the Japanese currency.
Japanese Yen bears turn cautious amid intervention fears as Iran deal undermines USD
- USD/JPY bulls pause as intervention fears support the JPY amid a modest USD downtick.
- The US-Iran peace deal optimism counters the Fed’s hawkish tilt and weighs on the USD.
- The US-Japan rate differential should cap the JPY and help limit the downside for the pair.
The USD/JPY pair holds steady above mid-160.00s during the Asian session on Thursday, consolidating its gains registered over the past four days to the highest level since July 2024. The US Dollar (USD) pulls back following Wednesday’s hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed)-inspired rally to a fresh high since late March amid the latest optimism over a US-Iran peace deal. Adding to this, intervention fears offer some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) and contribute to capping the currency pair.
US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian electronically signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) aimed at ending hostilities between the two countries and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, Trump said that the 60-day negotiation period to reach a final agreement on Iran’s nuclear program is not a hard deadline, boosting investors’ confidence. This, in turn, prompts some USD profit-taking and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair.
Meanwhile, traders remain on high alert amid speculations that Japanese authorities will step in again to prop up the domestic currency. In fact, Japan’s top foreign exchange diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama have issued repeated warnings that Tokyo is monitoring speculative moves and remains fully prepared to curb further JPY weakness. This, along with the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) historic rate hike to the highest since 1995, limits further JPY losses and caps the USD/JPY pair.
That said, Japan’s borrowing costs remain lower than those of peer nations, including the US. In fact, the Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled the possibility of at least one rate hike this year after leaving its benchmark overnight borrowing rate anchored in the 3.5%-3.75% range on Wednesday. The persistently wide interest rate differential with the US keeps the JPY carry trade active, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains to the upside, and any corrective pullback should be bought into.
Japanese Yen Price Last 30 days
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 30 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.21% | 0.91% | 1.16% | 2.66% | 1.98% | 1.53% | 1.81% | |
| EUR | -1.21% | -0.28% | -0.04% | 1.44% | 0.79% | 0.30% | 0.61% | |
| GBP | -0.91% | 0.28% | 0.26% | 1.73% | 1.05% | 0.60% | 0.89% | |
| JPY | -1.16% | 0.04% | -0.26% | 1.48% | 0.74% | 0.34% | 0.60% | |
| CAD | -2.66% | -1.44% | -1.73% | -1.48% | -0.64% | -1.12% | -0.82% | |
| AUD | -1.98% | -0.79% | -1.05% | -0.74% | 0.64% | -0.46% | -0.16% | |
| NZD | -1.53% | -0.30% | -0.60% | -0.34% | 1.12% | 0.46% | 0.28% | |
| CHF | -1.81% | -0.61% | -0.89% | -0.60% | 0.82% | 0.16% | -0.28% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Japan Signals Readiness to Respond to Yen Moves
Japan stands ready to act if needed to address excessive exchange-rate volatility, Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Thursday. He added that the government is prepared to respond to market moves at any time, stating, “We are ready to respond appropriately to currency moves as needed at any time.” He added that officials will continue to closely monitor foreign exchange developments. Kihara noted that while a weaker yen benefits manufacturers by boosting export competitiveness and corporate profits, it also raises import costs, increasing the burden on businesses and households through higher prices. “We need to scrutinise such effects comprehensively,” he said, highlighting the government’s balanced assessment of the currency’s impact on the economy.
Japanese Yen gains ground as traders await Fed rate decision
- USD/JPY weakens to around 160.25 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- Fed is set to leave its interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% at the June meeting.
- BoJ hiked its policy rate by 25bps to 1.00% but gave no strong signal on the timing of the next move.
The USD/JPY pair loses ground to near 160.25 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh later on Wednesday.
The Fed is widely expected to stand pat on the interest rates at its June policy meeting. Traders will closely watch the statement, economic projections, and press conference for more hints about the US interest rate path later this year.
“The Fed is…likely to signal a neutral bias for monetary policy going forward,” said Erik Weisman, chief economist and portfolio manager at MFS Investment Management.
On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.0% from 0.75% as expected. This marks the highest level since 1995. The decision came at a time when Japan had been struggling with a weak JPY and inflation that had started to creep up, partly due to the Iran war.
“While the press conference…contained some optimistic signals regarding the outlook for the Japanese economy, it failed to move the needle much regarding market expectations around the timing of the next BOJ policy move,” said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank.
Traders are on alert for any potential intervention from Japanese authorities to shore up the ailing currency. MUFG analysts said the Japanese Yen’s failure to strengthen after the hike keeps pressure on Japanese officials to intervene again.
EUR/JPY – Could rebound toward 186.50 as bullish bias prevails
- EUR/JPY cross may rise toward the all-time high of 187.95.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 60 indicates solid upward momentum.
- The primary support appears at the nine-day EMA of 185.66.
EUR/JPY depreciates after three days of gains, trading around 186.20 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross holds a constructive bullish bias as it remains above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This positioning suggests the recent advance is supported by underlying demand.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 60 hints at firm but not yet overextended upside momentum. Additionally, the technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the EUR/JPY cross is remaining within the ascending channel pattern, suggesting an ongoing bullish bias.
The EUR/JPY cross may explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, recorded on April 17, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 188.30.
On the downside, the primary support lies at the nine-day EMA of 185.66, followed by the 50-day EMA of 185.18. A break below these moving averages would cause a bearish shift, exposing the lower boundary of the ascending channel near 184.70. Further declines could push the EUR/JPY cross to test its nearly four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, with further declines targeting the six-month low of 180.81, reached on February 12.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.03% | -0.01% | -0.08% | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.01% | -0.13% | |
| EUR | 0.03% | 0.01% | -0.06% | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.08% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.01% | -0.01% | -0.06% | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.05% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | 0.08% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.12% | 0.05% | -0.02% | |
| CAD | -0.02% | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.08% | 0.04% | -0.00% | -0.11% | |
| AUD | -0.05% | -0.08% | -0.11% | -0.12% | -0.04% | -0.02% | -0.13% | |
| NZD | -0.01% | -0.08% | -0.05% | -0.05% | 0.00% | 0.02% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | 0.13% | 0.10% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.11% | 0.13% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
AUD/JPY – Constructive bias prevails above 113.00, but neutral RSI spurs consolidation
- AUD/JPY edges lower to near 113.25 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- BoJ hiked interest rates by 25 bps to 1.00%, while RBA held rates steady at 4.35% at their June policy meeting.
- The cross keeps bullish vibe, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out in the near term with neutral RSI momentum.
- The first upside barrier emerges at 113.58; the initial downside target to watch is 113.23.
The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 113.25 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates to their highest level in more than three decades.
The BoJ decided to raise the short-term interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.0% from 0.75% after concluding the two-day monetary policy review meeting on Tuesday, as widely expected.
According to the Monetary Policy Statement, the board member will continue to increase the policy rate in response to developments in economic activity, prices and financial conditions.
On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% after its June monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. This is a pause following three consecutive 25 basis points (bps) rate hikes earlier this year. Despite leaving the interest rate unchanged, the board members signaled that further rate hikes might be necessary to achieve its goals.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a constructive bias as spot remains above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) while pressing into the Bollinger Bands’ upper half. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 48 hints at consolidative rather than overbought conditions, suggesting any pullbacks could stay contained above underlying trend support.
On the topside, a sustained break over the Bollinger SMA middle band at 113.58 would open the door toward the Bollinger upper band resistance near 114.90. On the downside, initial support aligns with the recent pivot zone around 113.23, followed by the Bollinger lower band at 112.25 and then the 100-day SMA near 112.00, where a deeper retreat would need to find buyers to maintain the prevailing upward bias.
Japanese Yen: BoJ hike fails to lift currency – ING
ING’s Chris Turner says the Bank of Japan’s 25 bp hike to 1.00% is no game-changer for the Japanese Yen, as policy remains accommodative and real rates stay comfortably negative. With markets not expecting another hike until December, USD/JPY is seen skewed toward a retest of 160.70 and possibly 161/162, where further BoJ FX intervention is anticipated.
Accommodative stance keeps Yen vulnerable
“As expected, the BoJ today hiked the policy rate by 25bp to 1.00%.”
“The market thinks the next follow-up hike will not emerge until December.”
“This leaves Japan with comfortably negative real interest rates and leaves the yen as a funding currency if volatility slows even more this summer and renewed interest emerges in the carry trade.”
“Tomorrow’s FOMC meeting will also have a strong say in where USD/JPY goes from here.”
“So far, FX intervention has been ineffective and until it becomes clear that the dollar is ready to turn lower, USD/JPY looks skewed to a retest of this year’s 160.70 high, with risks to the 161/162 area, where more BoJ intervention shoul
AUD/JPY – Strengthens above 113.00, positive tone remains intact
- AUD/JPY gathers strength to near 113.35 in Monday’s early European session.
- RBA is anticipated to leave the interest rate unchanged, while BoJ is set to raise its benchmark rate on Tuesday.
- The cross keeps the bullish vibe, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out with neutral RSI momentum.
- The first upside barrier emerges at 113.60; the initial support level to watch is 112.25.
The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 113.35 during the early European session on Monday. The reports that the United States (US) had agreed to a peace deal with Iran provide some support to the riskier assets, such as the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). All eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decisions later on Tuesday.
CNN reported on Sunday that Washington and Tehran have reached an agreement that will take effect on Friday. US President Donald Trump said the US is lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen after the agreement is signed.
On Tuesday, the RBA is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged for the first time this year, with money markets paring bets on further tightening. Traders will take more cues from the press conference on whether RBA Governor Michele Bullock signals some comfort at the current rate or keeps the door open to further moves to counter stubborn price pressures. Fading expectations of additional interest rate hikes by the Australian central bank might cap the upside for the Aussie in the near term.
The BoJ is likely to raise its benchmark interest rate to the highest level since 1995, undeterred by the absence of its governor. A Reuters poll showed economists projecting the Japanese central bank to raise rates to 1.25% in the fourth quarter (Q4) after a hike in June to 1.0%.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY retains a constructive bias as it holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting underlying demand on dips. Price, however, trades just under the Bollinger mid-line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near a neutral 50, hinting at a consolidative tone within an overall uptrend.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger middle band around 113.60, with the upper Bollinger Band near 114.92 acting as the next barrier if buyers regain control. On the downside, support sits first at the lower Bollinger Band around 112.25, ahead of the 100-day SMA clustered near 111.90, where a break would weaken the current bullish structure and open the door to a deeper corrective slide.
