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EUR/JPY Price – Gains above 184.00, but bearish technical bias persists below 100-day SMA

  • EUR/JPY gains traction around 184.20 in Monday’s European session. 
  • The negative outlook for the cross prevails under the key 100-day SMA, with bearish RSI momentum. 
  • The initial support level is seen at 183.55; the first upside barrier to watch is 184.55. 

The EUR/JPY cross trades in positive territory near 184.20 during the early European session on Monday. However, the potential upside for the cross might be limited as traders are nervous about a fragile US-Iran ceasefire. 

The US and Iran traded fresh barbs over the weekend before they agreed to halt attacks and meet in Qatar on Tuesday. Uncertainty surrounding US-Iran talks could weigh on the riskier assets, such as the Euro (EUR) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). 

Furthermore, mounting fears of Japanese market intervention could underpin the JPY. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said last week that officials will take appropriate action against the foreign exchange moves if needed.

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) annual forum this week will be closely watched as traders continue to monitor evolving central bank policies amid lower oil prices and stock market volatility. ECB President Christine Lagarde will open the forum on Monday. Any hawkish remarks from policymakers could help limit the EUR’s losses in the near term. 

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds a bearish near-term bias as the pair holds beneath the 100-day moving average and the Bollinger middle band. Price action remains capped by this clustered dynamic resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 42.65 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at fading bullish momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

On the downside, initial support emerges at the lower Bollinger band around 183.55, which marks the first notable demand zone that could slow the current pullback. A clear break below this band would likely expose deeper corrective territory, while on the topside, a daily close back above the 100-day moving average at 184.55 would be needed to ease immediate pressure and open the way toward the Bollinger middle band near 184.95 and, later, the upper band at 186.35.

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EUR/JPY Price – Slips below 184.00 due to bearish near-term bias

  • EUR/JPY is bearish, trading below its nine-period and 50-period EMAs.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 38 signals continuing downside momentum, not an oversold reversal.
  • Spot above 183.81 VWAP means buyers control the EUR/JPY cross in intraday trading.

EUR/JPY inches lower after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 183.90 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross maintains a bearish near-term bias as it holds below both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 184.38 and 184.91, respectively.

The EUR/JPY cross is remaining within the symmetrical triangle, suggesting market indecision and an impending breakout as energy builds, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased toward 38, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than a decisive oversold reversal.

However, the session Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) represents the true average price paid for a stock or asset throughout the day, weighted by volume. Because the spot price is higher than the VWAP of 183.81, it means buyers are firmly in control and are willing to pay a premium to acquire the EUR/JPY cross.

In context with the symmetrical triangle, volatility is shrinking. Think of it like a compressed spring; the market is resting and storing energy for a major breakout. Because the price is trapped between two converging trendlines, momentum indicators like VWAP lose their directional edge until a breakout occurs.

The initial support is aligned at the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 183.40. Further declines would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by the six-month low of 180.81.

On the upside, primary resistance is seen at the nine-period EMA at 184.38, followed by the 50-period EMA at 184.91; a sustained break above these levels would soften the bearish tone and expose the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 186.00. Further advances would support the EUR/JPY cross to test the all-time high of 187.95.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.03%-0.05%-0.11%-0.06%0.33%0.14%-0.17%
EUR0.03%-0.03%-0.06%-0.01%0.36%0.14%-0.13%
GBP0.05%0.03%-0.04%-0.01%0.39%0.19%-0.11%
JPY0.11%0.06%0.04%0.05%0.43%0.22%-0.06%
CAD0.06%0.00%0.00%-0.05%0.39%0.16%-0.13%
AUD-0.33%-0.36%-0.39%-0.43%-0.39%-0.20%-0.48%
NZD-0.14%-0.14%-0.19%-0.22%-0.16%0.20%-0.29%
CHF0.17%0.13%0.11%0.06%0.13%0.48%0.29%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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Yen Stays Near 40-Year Low

The Japanese yen traded around 161.7 per dollar on Friday, hovering near its weakest level since 1986 despite data showing Tokyo’s core inflation accelerated for the first time in eight months, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue raising interest rates. On Wednesday, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed his commitment to further rate hikes in line with economic, inflation, and financial developments. A day later, hawkish board member Naoki Tamura also advocated raising rates every few months. The BOJ is due to announce its next policy decision on July 31. The yen remained under pressure despite repeated verbal warnings from Japan’s Finance Ministry and record currency intervention in recent weeks, as a stronger dollar and the wide interest rate differential with the US continued to weigh on the currency while the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates later this year.

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Trade of The Day – CHF/JPY

  • CHFJPY reversed from the key resistance level at 199.66
  • The pair has been trading in a downtrend since June 17

Trade Recommendation Trade:

Open a short position on CHFJPY at the current market price.

  • Target 1: 198.45
  • Target 2: 198.10
  • Stop Loss: 199.92

Analysis

CHFJPY has remained in a downtrend in recent sessions. On the H1 chart , the pair staged a local bullish correction, but buyers failed to break above the key 199.66 resistance , which is defined by the upper boundary of the 1:1 Overbalance structure and the 100-period moving average . According to the Overbalance methodology , as long as the price remains below this resistance level, the prevailing market sentiment stays bearish. With this in mind, further downside in CHFJPY appears likely. We recommend opening a short position at the current market price, targeting 198.45 and 198.10 , with a stop loss at 199.92 .

Source: xStation 5

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Japanese Yen bears turn cautious amid intervention fears, modest USD pullback

  • USD/JPY trades with a mild negative bias and is undermined by a combination of factors.
  • Easing inflationary concerns temper Fed rate hike bets and prompt some USD profit-taking.
  • Intervention fears lend support to the JPY and weigh on the pair ahead of the US PCE data.

The USD/JPY pair edges lower during the Asian session on Thursday, albeit it lacks follow-through and finds support ahead of the 161.50 level. Nevertheless, spot prices remain well within striking distance of a 40-year high as traders look forward to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for a fresh impetus.

The crucial inflation data will dictate the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and determining the next leg of a directional move for the USD/JPY pair. In the meantime, the recent decline in Crude Oil prices has eased inflationary concerns, prompting traders to scale back their bets on Fed interest rate increases. This, in turn, triggers a modest USD pullback from its highest level since May 2025, touched on Wednesday, and acts as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair.

Apart from this, heightened speculation about joint US-Japan intervention offers some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) and further caps the upside for the currency pair. In fact, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent agreed to take steps on currencies if necessary. Also, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Tuesday that he will take appropriate action against the foreign exchange moves if needed. This, along with a hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ), offers some respite to the JPY bulls.

In fact, the Summary of Opinions from the BoJ’s June meeting showed that policymakers debated mounting inflation risks, with some calling for faster interest rate increases to raise borrowing costs to near levels deemed neutral to the economy. Furthermore, BoJ board member Naoki Tamura said earlier today that it is important to push the policy rate closer to the neutral level, which is about 2%. This is still lower than the Fed’s 3.5% to 3.75% target rate, however, which keeps the JPY carry trade in play and helps limit the downside for the USD/JPY pair.

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EUR/JPY Price – Trades near 184.00 after rebounding from symmetrical triangle

  • EUR/JPY remains stuck in a corrective phase dominated by short-term downward pressure.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 36.96 suggests downside momentum is slowing but not yet fully exhausted.
  • The currency cross trades above the 183.69 VWAP, indicating mild bullish sentiment for the current session.

EUR/JPY pares its daily losses, remaining in the negative territory and trading around 183.80 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross holds in a corrective phase below the short- and medium-term trend filters, with the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 184.47 and the 50-day EMA at 184.95 acting as immediate overhead caps and reinforcing a bearish near-term bias.

The EUR/JPY cross has slipped back under the moving averages after failing to sustain gains near recent highs, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 36.96 approaches oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is softening but not yet exhausted.

The EUR/JPY cross is remaining within the symmetrical triangle, suggesting market indecision and an impending breakout as energy builds.

The spot price is trading slightly above the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) at 183.69, suggesting a mild bullish sentiment for the current trading session. Buyers are willing to pay more than the average price paid by all other traders throughout the day.

In context with the symmetrical triangle, trading just above the day’s average volume weight indicates that bulls are trying to push the price toward the upper boundary of that triangle for a potential breakout.

The initial support is aligned at the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 183.40. Further declines would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by six-month low of 180.81.

On the upside, a recovery above the nine-day EMA at 184.47 would be the first sign of easing pressure, though bulls would likely need a daily close over the 50-day EMA at 184.95 to challenge the major resistance band near all-time high of 187.95.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.05%-0.09%-0.06%-0.03%0.10%0.17%-0.15%
EUR0.05%-0.02%0.04%0.06%0.18%0.25%-0.08%
GBP0.09%0.02%0.02%0.07%0.19%0.27%-0.08%
JPY0.06%-0.04%-0.02%0.03%0.16%0.21%-0.11%
CAD0.03%-0.06%-0.07%-0.03%0.12%0.20%-0.15%
AUD-0.10%-0.18%-0.19%-0.16%-0.12%0.06%-0.24%
NZD-0.17%-0.25%-0.27%-0.21%-0.20%-0.06%-0.35%
CHF0.15%0.08%0.08%0.11%0.15%0.24%0.35%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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USD/JPY Price – Range tightens further at around 161.60

  • USD/JPY consolidates around 161.60 as hawkish BoJ supporting Japanese Yen counters outperforming the US Dollar.
  • One BoJ member expects interest rates to rise to 2% as soon as possible.
  • BoJ’s Asada, PM Takaichi appointee, voted against the interest rate hike in the policy meeting this month.

The USD/JPY pair trades in a limited range around 161.60 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The pair consolidates as hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) bets are supporting the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the US Dollar’s (USD) continued outperformance.

Earlier in the day, the BoJ Summary of Opinions (SoP) of the June meeting showed that a majority of officials favor more interest rate hikes to counter mounting inflation risks. Also, one board member said Japan’s policy rate must be brought closer to the estimated neutral rate of around 2% as soon as possible.

The BoJ SoP also showed that new board member, Toichiro Asada, the appointee of Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi, voted against the hike, citing downside inflation and employment risks due to the Middle East crisis. In the policy meeting, the BoJ lifted interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 1%.

Meanwhile, a Reuters report shows that the BoJ is almost certain to deliver another interest rate hike this year in December.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 101.50, the highest level seen in over a year.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY trades flat at around 161.65 at press time. The pair maintains a bullish near-term bias as price holds well above the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) at 158.72, keeping the broader uptrend intact.

Weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64.11 stays in positive territory but below overbought levels, suggesting strong yet not extreme upside momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the round-level 160.00, followed by the 20-week EMA at 158.72. On the upside, the pair would enter uncharted territory if it breaks above the all-time high around 162.00.