UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe USD/JPY as range-bound intraday between 159.90 and 160.40 after a brief spike and reversal, but maintain a slightly positive multi-day stance. They see upward momentum building tentatively, with the pair likely to rise gradually toward 160.75 while strong support at 159.60 defines the risk, and longer term highlight scope to test the top of a rising wedge near 161.15.
Dollar Yen bias remains mildly positive
“24-HOUR VIEW: The following are excerpts from our update yesterday: “The slight increase in upward momentum suggests that USD is likely to edge higher to 160.50. The major resistance at 160.75 is unlikely to come under threat. Support is at 160.05; a breach of 159.95 would suggest that the current mild upward pressure has eased.” The subsequent price movements turned out differently than we expected. USD edged to a high of 160.39, dropped to 159.87 before rebounding quickly to close largely unchanged at 160.17 (-0.07%). The price action provides no fresh clues. Today, USD could trade between 159.90 and 160.40.”
“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We revised our view to slightly positive yesterday (08 Jun, spot at 160.25). We highlighted that “upward momentum is building, albeit tentatively.” We also highlighted that USD “could rise gradually, and the level to watch is 160.75.” There is no change in our view. On the downside, a breach of 159.60 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would mean that upward momentum has faded.”
EUR/JPY holds gains as a stronger Euro is supported by robust Germany’s Industrial Production.
Germany’s seasonally adjusted industrial output rebounded by 0.4% in April, meeting market expectations and recovering from March’s 0.1% decline.
The Japanese Yen steadies as lower oil prices temper energy inflation fears, easing market pressure for aggressive rate hikes.
EUR/JPY extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 184.90 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross holds gains as the Euro (EUR) remains stronger following the release of Industrial Production and Trade Balance data.
Industrial Output, in the Eurozone’s economic powerhouse Germany, rose by 0.4% over the month in April, the federal statistics authority Destatis said in figures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, compared with the expected 0.4% rise and a decline of 0.1% recorded in March (revised from -0.7%). Annually, the German Industrial Production came in at -0.5% in the same period, following March’s revised 3.4% fall.
Germany’s trade surplus narrowed to €14.5 billion in April 2026 from an upwardly revised €14.7 billion in March, falling short of market expectations of €15.0 billion. It was the smallest trade surplus since November, as imports grew faster than exports. Exports unexpectedly increased by 0.9% month-on-month to a near 3½-year high of €136.6 billion, accelerating from a downwardly revised 0.3% gain in March and easily beating expectations of a 0.3% decline. Meanwhile, imports climbed 1.2% month-on-month to €122.1 billion, the highest level since November 2022, though easing from a downwardly revised 4.5% increase in March.
The upside for the EUR/JPY cross remains limited as a stabilizing Japanese Yen (JPY) acts as a structural headwind. Recent pullbacks in global oil prices have helped temper fears of a severe energy-driven inflation spike, consequently easing immediate market pressure for hyper-aggressive rate hikes.
However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is still widely anticipated to tighten monetary policy later this month. Policymakers continue to grapple with underlying inflationary pressures stemming from historically elevated energy costs. In tandem with potential rate hikes, reports indicate that the BoJ will review its bond-tapering framework, with a high likelihood of scaling back its monthly asset purchases. Market participants are now turning their focus to Wednesday’s 30-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) auction, which will serve as a key barometer to gauge investor demand within this shifting, higher-yield environment.
EUR/JPY gathers strength near 184.85 in Tuesday’s early European session.
The cross keeps the bullish vibe, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out in near term with neutral RSI momentum.
The initial support level is seen at 184.50; the immediate resistance level to watch is 185.12.
The EUR/JPY cross holds positive ground around 184.85 during the early European session on Tuesday. A hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB) underpins the Euro (EUR) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). The ECB will hold its June monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike after Eurozone inflation surged to 3.2%.
Markets are on high alert for foreign exchange intervention from Japanese authorities. This, in turn, might support the JPY and act as a headwind for the cross. Japanese authorities have issued strong verbal warnings, stating that the government is fully prepared to take decisive and appropriate action to protect the domestic currency.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds a constructive bullish bias as spot remains above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger band midline. Price also sits comfortably above the lower Bollinger band, suggesting the broader uptrend structure is still intact, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.9 leans slightly soft but remains in neutral territory, hinting at consolidative rather than impulsive downside momentum.
On the downside, the initial support zone is formed by the 100-day SMA at 184.50, followed by the lower Bollinger band near 184.20, which should limit deeper pullbacks if the bullish structure is to persist. The first upside barrier emerges at the the Bollinger band midline at 185.12, en route to the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band at 185.12. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to the 186.00 psychological level.
USD/JPY attracts some buyers on Tuesday, though the uptick lacks bullish conviction.
Intervention fears and BoJ rate hike bets support the JPY, capping gains for the major.
The Israel-Iran truce weighs on the USD and further acts as a headwind for spot prices.
The USD/JPY pair struggles to build on a modest Asian session uptick on Tuesday and remains below its highest level since April 30, set the previous day. Spot prices, however, hold above the 160.00 psychological mark and seem unaffected by a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).
Iran and Israel said that they had halted attacks on each other after an appeal from US President Donald Trump. This drags the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the safe-haven Greenback against a basket of currencies, away from a two-month high, touched on Monday, and acts as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair. Furthermore, speculations that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY) contribute to capping spot prices.
In fact, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated earlier today that the stance is unchanged and authorities are prepared for decisive measures. The JPY bulls, however, seem hesitant amid worries that Japan’s economy will remain under strain due to the Middle East conflict and the continued energy supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. This offsets Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike bets and further supports the USD/JPY pair.
Meanwhile, firming expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year, along with the uncertainty over the US-Iran peace deal, should limit USD losses. Investors might also opt to wait for the US inflation figures – Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. This warrants some caution before confirming that the USD/JPY pair has formed a near-term top.
Japanese Yen Price Last 30 days
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 30 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
1.59%
1.53%
2.08%
2.04%
2.24%
1.90%
2.13%
EUR
-1.59%
-0.09%
0.52%
0.48%
0.57%
0.28%
0.53%
GBP
-1.53%
0.09%
0.62%
0.58%
0.75%
0.39%
0.62%
JPY
-2.08%
-0.52%
-0.62%
-0.05%
0.00%
-0.23%
0.07%
CAD
-2.04%
-0.48%
-0.58%
0.05%
0.02%
-0.18%
0.09%
AUD
-2.24%
-0.57%
-0.75%
-0.00%
-0.02%
-0.23%
-0.03%
NZD
-1.90%
-0.28%
-0.39%
0.23%
0.18%
0.23%
0.14%
CHF
-2.13%
-0.53%
-0.62%
-0.07%
-0.09%
0.03%
-0.14%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
USD/JPY retreats from over a one-month high set on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through.
The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire weighs on the USD and the currency pair amid intervention fears.
The bullish technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any corrective decline.
The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Thursday amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY). Furthermore, the Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar (USD) and exerts downward pressure on the currency pair.
Spot prices, however, lack follow-through and remain close to the 160.00 psychological mark or over a one-month high set earlier today. Economic concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. Adding to this, the uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks, along with hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, acts as a tailwind for the USD and contributes to limiting the downside for the USD/JPY pair.
Spot prices retain a constructive near-term tone within an upward-sloping channel. The lower boundary of the said channel coincides with the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), which acted as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers above the midline, suggesting modest bullish momentum even as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flattens slightly below zero.
Momentum indicators hint at a slower advance rather than a sharp reversal. Hence, any corrective pullback might continue to attract fresh buyers near the 159.45 confluence support. A convincing break, however, might prompt some technical selling and pave the way for deeper losses. As long as buyers defend this support band above 159.44, the broader bias stays tilted higher, and a renewed push toward the channel top at 160.14 remains the primary topside scenario.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
Japanese Yen Price Last 30 days
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 30 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.71%
0.76%
1.66%
2.05%
0.54%
-0.02%
0.83%
EUR
-0.71%
0.06%
0.97%
1.36%
-0.20%
-0.70%
0.17%
GBP
-0.76%
-0.06%
0.92%
1.29%
-0.23%
-0.76%
0.12%
JPY
-1.66%
-0.97%
-0.92%
0.35%
-1.16%
-1.66%
-0.82%
CAD
-2.05%
-1.36%
-1.29%
-0.35%
-1.50%
-2.00%
-1.16%
AUD
-0.54%
0.20%
0.23%
1.16%
1.50%
-0.54%
0.39%
NZD
0.02%
0.70%
0.76%
1.66%
2.00%
0.54%
0.89%
CHF
-0.83%
-0.17%
-0.12%
0.82%
1.16%
-0.39%
-0.89%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
EUR/JPY trades with mild gains near 185.65 in Thursday’s early European session.
The cross keep a modest bullish bias above the key 100-day SMA.
The first upside barrier emerges at 186.00; the initial support level is seen at 185.15.
The EUR/JPY cross posts modest gains around 185.65 during the early European session on Thursday. The potential upside might be limited for the cross amid fears of foreign exchange intervention from Japanese authorities.
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Wednesday that officials are standing ready to respond appropriately on foreign exchange if required. Katayama added that she aligns with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor on several matters.
On the other hand, the hawkish stance of the European Central Bank might help limit the EUR’s losses. The ECB is likely to raise its deposit rate to 2.25% at its upcoming June policy meeting, with another increase likely in September, a Reuters poll of economists showed.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, EUR/JPY trades at 185.64, holding a modest bullish bias as it consolidates above the Bollinger middle band around 185.15 and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) near 184.48. The pair is trading closer to the upper half of its recent Bollinger envelope, with the upper band near 186.02 acting as immediate overhead resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 55 suggests steady but not overstretched upside momentum.
On the topside, a daily close above the Bollinger upper band at 186.02 would open the way for a continuation of the advance toward higher highs in the coming sessions. On the downside, initial support is seen at the Bollinger middle band near 185.15, followed by the 100-day SMA at 184.48 and the lower Bollinger band around 184.28, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge if the current pullback deepens.
USD/JPY pauses for a breather as a fresh intervention warning helps limit JPY losses
Economic risks stemming from the Middle East conflict cap the JPY and support the pair.
The bullish USD sentiment backs the case for further gains amid a constructive setup.
The USD/JPY pair enters a bullish consolidation phase on Wednesday, oscillating in a narrow range just below the 160.00 psychological mark, or a one-month high touched during the Asian session. Verbal intervention by Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama offers some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY), which, along with a subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, caps spot prices.
However, economic concerns stemming from the conflict in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. In contrast, the lack of breakthrough in US-Iran peace negotiations, along with hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed), acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and helps limit downside for the USD/JPY pair.
From a technical perspective, this week’s move beyond the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the late April-early May downswing comes on top of the recent solid bounce from the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and favors bulls. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 61 suggests firm but not overextended upside momentum. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, hinting that buyers still retain control despite the proximity of recent cycle highs.
On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the late April swing high near 160.78, where a clear break would reopen the path toward fresh highs. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 78.6% retracement at 159.55, followed by the 61.8% level at 158.58 and the 50% retracement at 157.90. Deeper pullbacks would look to the 38.2% level at 157.22 and the 23.6% retracement at 156.38, ahead of a stronger demand area created by the 200-day EMA at 155.77 and the structural floor near 155.03.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
EUR/JPY edges lower to near 185.90 in Wednesday’s early European session.
Japan’s Katayama said the authorities are standing ready to respond appropriately to foreign exchange.
The positive view for the cross remains intact above the key 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum.
The first upside barrier emerges at 186.10; the initial support level to watch is 185.08.
The EUR/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 185.90 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) gathers strength against the Euro (EUR) as traders are on alert for intervention from Japanese officials.
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Wednesday that the authorities are ready to act on the foreign exchange if required, adding that she aligns with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor on several matters.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds a constructive bullish bias as price trades above the Bollinger middle band around and comfortably over the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact. The latest Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading at 58.43 sits in positive territory without being overbought, hinting that bullish momentum persists but has not yet reached exhaustion.
On the upside, the immediate resistance level is now aligned with the Bollinger upper band near 186.10, en route to the April 29 high of 187.42. On the other hand, the mid-line around 185.08 reinforcing a nearby demand zone. The next crucial contention level is located near the 100-day SMA at 184.47 and the lower Bollinger band close to 184.07.
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