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Trade of The Day – CHF/JPY

  • CHFJPY reversed from the key resistance level at 199.66
  • The pair has been trading in a downtrend since June 17

Trade Recommendation Trade:

Open a short position on CHFJPY at the current market price.

  • Target 1: 198.45
  • Target 2: 198.10
  • Stop Loss: 199.92

Analysis

CHFJPY has remained in a downtrend in recent sessions. On the H1 chart , the pair staged a local bullish correction, but buyers failed to break above the key 199.66 resistance , which is defined by the upper boundary of the 1:1 Overbalance structure and the 100-period moving average . According to the Overbalance methodology , as long as the price remains below this resistance level, the prevailing market sentiment stays bearish. With this in mind, further downside in CHFJPY appears likely. We recommend opening a short position at the current market price, targeting 198.45 and 198.10 , with a stop loss at 199.92 .

Source: xStation 5

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Japanese Yen bears turn cautious amid intervention fears, modest USD pullback

  • USD/JPY trades with a mild negative bias and is undermined by a combination of factors.
  • Easing inflationary concerns temper Fed rate hike bets and prompt some USD profit-taking.
  • Intervention fears lend support to the JPY and weigh on the pair ahead of the US PCE data.

The USD/JPY pair edges lower during the Asian session on Thursday, albeit it lacks follow-through and finds support ahead of the 161.50 level. Nevertheless, spot prices remain well within striking distance of a 40-year high as traders look forward to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for a fresh impetus.

The crucial inflation data will dictate the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and determining the next leg of a directional move for the USD/JPY pair. In the meantime, the recent decline in Crude Oil prices has eased inflationary concerns, prompting traders to scale back their bets on Fed interest rate increases. This, in turn, triggers a modest USD pullback from its highest level since May 2025, touched on Wednesday, and acts as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair.

Apart from this, heightened speculation about joint US-Japan intervention offers some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) and further caps the upside for the currency pair. In fact, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent agreed to take steps on currencies if necessary. Also, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Tuesday that he will take appropriate action against the foreign exchange moves if needed. This, along with a hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ), offers some respite to the JPY bulls.

In fact, the Summary of Opinions from the BoJ’s June meeting showed that policymakers debated mounting inflation risks, with some calling for faster interest rate increases to raise borrowing costs to near levels deemed neutral to the economy. Furthermore, BoJ board member Naoki Tamura said earlier today that it is important to push the policy rate closer to the neutral level, which is about 2%. This is still lower than the Fed’s 3.5% to 3.75% target rate, however, which keeps the JPY carry trade in play and helps limit the downside for the USD/JPY pair.

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EUR/JPY Price – Trades near 184.00 after rebounding from symmetrical triangle

  • EUR/JPY remains stuck in a corrective phase dominated by short-term downward pressure.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 36.96 suggests downside momentum is slowing but not yet fully exhausted.
  • The currency cross trades above the 183.69 VWAP, indicating mild bullish sentiment for the current session.

EUR/JPY pares its daily losses, remaining in the negative territory and trading around 183.80 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross holds in a corrective phase below the short- and medium-term trend filters, with the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 184.47 and the 50-day EMA at 184.95 acting as immediate overhead caps and reinforcing a bearish near-term bias.

The EUR/JPY cross has slipped back under the moving averages after failing to sustain gains near recent highs, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 36.96 approaches oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is softening but not yet exhausted.

The EUR/JPY cross is remaining within the symmetrical triangle, suggesting market indecision and an impending breakout as energy builds.

The spot price is trading slightly above the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) at 183.69, suggesting a mild bullish sentiment for the current trading session. Buyers are willing to pay more than the average price paid by all other traders throughout the day.

In context with the symmetrical triangle, trading just above the day’s average volume weight indicates that bulls are trying to push the price toward the upper boundary of that triangle for a potential breakout.

The initial support is aligned at the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 183.40. Further declines would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by six-month low of 180.81.

On the upside, a recovery above the nine-day EMA at 184.47 would be the first sign of easing pressure, though bulls would likely need a daily close over the 50-day EMA at 184.95 to challenge the major resistance band near all-time high of 187.95.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.05%-0.09%-0.06%-0.03%0.10%0.17%-0.15%
EUR0.05%-0.02%0.04%0.06%0.18%0.25%-0.08%
GBP0.09%0.02%0.02%0.07%0.19%0.27%-0.08%
JPY0.06%-0.04%-0.02%0.03%0.16%0.21%-0.11%
CAD0.03%-0.06%-0.07%-0.03%0.12%0.20%-0.15%
AUD-0.10%-0.18%-0.19%-0.16%-0.12%0.06%-0.24%
NZD-0.17%-0.25%-0.27%-0.21%-0.20%-0.06%-0.35%
CHF0.15%0.08%0.08%0.11%0.15%0.24%0.35%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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USD/JPY Price – Range tightens further at around 161.60

  • USD/JPY consolidates around 161.60 as hawkish BoJ supporting Japanese Yen counters outperforming the US Dollar.
  • One BoJ member expects interest rates to rise to 2% as soon as possible.
  • BoJ’s Asada, PM Takaichi appointee, voted against the interest rate hike in the policy meeting this month.

The USD/JPY pair trades in a limited range around 161.60 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The pair consolidates as hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) bets are supporting the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the US Dollar’s (USD) continued outperformance.

Earlier in the day, the BoJ Summary of Opinions (SoP) of the June meeting showed that a majority of officials favor more interest rate hikes to counter mounting inflation risks. Also, one board member said Japan’s policy rate must be brought closer to the estimated neutral rate of around 2% as soon as possible.

The BoJ SoP also showed that new board member, Toichiro Asada, the appointee of Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi, voted against the hike, citing downside inflation and employment risks due to the Middle East crisis. In the policy meeting, the BoJ lifted interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 1%.

Meanwhile, a Reuters report shows that the BoJ is almost certain to deliver another interest rate hike this year in December.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 101.50, the highest level seen in over a year.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY trades flat at around 161.65 at press time. The pair maintains a bullish near-term bias as price holds well above the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) at 158.72, keeping the broader uptrend intact.

Weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64.11 stays in positive territory but below overbought levels, suggesting strong yet not extreme upside momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the round-level 160.00, followed by the 20-week EMA at 158.72. On the upside, the pair would enter uncharted territory if it breaks above the all-time high around 162.00.

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Australian Dollar steadies vs Japanese Yen as CPI cools, BoJ hawks

  • AUD/JPY experiences volatility amid cooling Australian inflation.
  • Australia’s annual CPI rose 4.0% while monthly prices fell 0.7%, both slowing much faster than markets expected.
  • JPY defense prompts government intervention and rate hike momentum, highlighting building pressures for a tighter monetary policy.

AUD/JPY remains steady after six days of losses, trading around 0.6920 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross moves little as the Australian Dollar (AUD) experiences minor volatility following the release of Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Australian inflation slowed more than anticipated in May, offering some relief to policymakers. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 4.0% year-over-year, down from 4.2% in the previous month and lower than the 4.4% market consensus. On a monthly basis, consumer prices actually fell by 0.7%, a sharp reversal from the prior month’s 0.4% increase and a softer reading than the forecasted 0.3% decline. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) preferred core inflation metric, the Trimmed Mean CPI, ticked up 0.4% for the month and rose 3.6% on an annual basis.

Over in Japan, momentum is building for tighter monetary policy just as government officials step up warnings to protect a weakening Japanese Yen (JPY). Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated that authorities will take appropriate action against excessive foreign exchange volatility if necessary. This stance was underscored by a high-level call between Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, keeping the market on high alert for official Yen-buying operations.

The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions from its June meeting showed that a majority of board members supported raising the policy interest rate, noting that inflation risks are broadening and the underlying CPI is sustainably approaching its 2% target.

As a result of these conflicting forces, the upside for the AUD/JPY cross remains firmly capped. The combination of cooling Australian inflation, which dampens the need for higher RBA rate hikes, and heightened fears of direct currency intervention by Japanese authorities has prompted traders to handle the currency cross with extreme caution.

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AUD/JPY Price – Holds losses below 113.00 on intervention fears, bias stays mildly bullish

  • AUD/JPY attracts some sellers near 112.75 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
  • The cross keeps a mildly bullish vibe, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out with RSI holding below the midline. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 113.40; the initial support level to watch is 112.70.  

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 112.75 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as traders are on high alert for currency intervention from Japanese authorities. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Tuesday that he will take appropriate action against the foreign exchange moves if needed. 

On the other hand, a hawkish interest rate hold from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might underpin the Aussie. The Australian central bank decided to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% after its June monetary policy meeting last week. Despite pausing the interest rates, the board members signaled that further rate hikes might be necessary to achieve its goals.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY retains a mildly constructive bias while it holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting underlying demand remains in place despite the recent pullback from the highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.6 leans slightly bearish but not oversold, hinting more at consolidation than a decisive reversal as price oscillates within the upper half of its broader Bollinger envelope.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the Bollinger middle band at 113.40, and a sustained break above this area would open the door for a retest of the upper Bollinger Band around 114.78. On the downside, the immediate focus is on the 100-day SMA at 112.20 ahead of the lower Bollinger Band at 112.00, where buyers would be expected to show more interest if the pullback deepens.

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USD/JPY Price – Holds above 161.50; eyes multi-decade top despite intervention fears

  • USD/JPY holds steady following the previous day’s late pullback from the 162.00 neighborhood.
  • Intervention fears keep the JPY bears on the back foot and act as a headwind for spot prices.
  • Economic concerns and the wide US-Japan rate differential offer support amid a bullish setup.

The USD/JPY pair enters a bullish consolidation phase during the Asian session on Tuesday and currently trades just above 161.50 amid mixed fundamental cues. Spot prices, however, remain well within striking distance of a 40-year peak, around the 162.00 neighborhood set in July 2024, as traders remain on edge amid fears that Japanese authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY).

Local broadcaster TBS reported that Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama held an online meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent to discuss the JPY’s sharp decline and potential intervention. Adding to this, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said that he will take appropriate action against the foreign exchange (FX) moves if needed. This holds back JPY bears from placing fresh bets and caps the upside for the USD/JPY pair.

However, economic risks stemming from the Middle East conflict and energy supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue to undermine the JPY. Apart from this, a persistently wide Japan-US rate differential keeps the JPY bulls on the back foot. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, stands firm near its highest level since May 2025, lending additional support to the USD/JPY pair.

Last week’s sustained breakout through the previous intervention zone, around the 160.50-160.60 area, comes on top of the recent solid bounce from the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and keeps the broader uptrend intact. That said, the Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering in overbought territory near 70, which hints at risk of consolidation or a corrective pause rather than a confirmed near-term top for the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains positive above the zero line, reinforcing the underlying upward pressure. In the meantime, the structural pivot around 160.60-160.50 should protect the immediate downside. Moreover, the 200-day EMA at 156.47 should provide a deeper layer of trend support if a sharper corrective pullback unfolds amid elevated RSI readings.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY daily chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Price Last 30 days

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 30 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD1.73%1.49%1.66%2.90%2.62%3.16%2.85%
EUR-1.73%-0.24%-0.09%1.12%0.88%1.42%1.11%
GBP-1.49%0.24%0.21%1.43%1.16%1.68%1.39%
JPY-1.66%0.09%-0.21%1.17%0.99%1.51%1.10%
CAD-2.90%-1.12%-1.43%-1.17%-0.17%0.33%-0.04%
AUD-2.62%-0.88%-1.16%-0.99%0.17%0.53%0.22%
NZD-3.16%-1.42%-1.68%-1.51%-0.33%-0.53%-0.31%
CHF-2.85%-1.11%-1.39%-1.10%0.04%-0.22%0.31%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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Yen Slides Toward 40-Year Low

The Japanese yen weakened to around 161.5 per dollar on Monday, hovering near its lowest level since 1986 as repeated verbal interventions from Tokyo failed to halt the currency’s decline. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said authorities stood ready to take appropriate action against excessive currency moves at any time, echoing earlier warnings. The yen has now surrendered all the gains made on April 30, when officials carried out a record-sized market intervention to support the currency. The latest drop came despite the Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalization, including a 25-basis-point interest rate increase to 1% last week. The currency also remained under pressure from heavy carry-trade activity, as investors continued to favor short yen positions amid the still-wide interest rate gap between Japan and the US.