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AUD/JPY Price – Holds losses below 113.00 on intervention fears, bias stays mildly bullish

  • AUD/JPY attracts some sellers near 112.75 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
  • The cross keeps a mildly bullish vibe, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out with RSI holding below the midline. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 113.40; the initial support level to watch is 112.70.  

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 112.75 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as traders are on high alert for currency intervention from Japanese authorities. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Tuesday that he will take appropriate action against the foreign exchange moves if needed. 

On the other hand, a hawkish interest rate hold from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might underpin the Aussie. The Australian central bank decided to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% after its June monetary policy meeting last week. Despite pausing the interest rates, the board members signaled that further rate hikes might be necessary to achieve its goals.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY retains a mildly constructive bias while it holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting underlying demand remains in place despite the recent pullback from the highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.6 leans slightly bearish but not oversold, hinting more at consolidation than a decisive reversal as price oscillates within the upper half of its broader Bollinger envelope.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the Bollinger middle band at 113.40, and a sustained break above this area would open the door for a retest of the upper Bollinger Band around 114.78. On the downside, the immediate focus is on the 100-day SMA at 112.20 ahead of the lower Bollinger Band at 112.00, where buyers would be expected to show more interest if the pullback deepens.

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USD/JPY Price – Holds above 161.50; eyes multi-decade top despite intervention fears

  • USD/JPY holds steady following the previous day’s late pullback from the 162.00 neighborhood.
  • Intervention fears keep the JPY bears on the back foot and act as a headwind for spot prices.
  • Economic concerns and the wide US-Japan rate differential offer support amid a bullish setup.

The USD/JPY pair enters a bullish consolidation phase during the Asian session on Tuesday and currently trades just above 161.50 amid mixed fundamental cues. Spot prices, however, remain well within striking distance of a 40-year peak, around the 162.00 neighborhood set in July 2024, as traders remain on edge amid fears that Japanese authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY).

Local broadcaster TBS reported that Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama held an online meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent to discuss the JPY’s sharp decline and potential intervention. Adding to this, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said that he will take appropriate action against the foreign exchange (FX) moves if needed. This holds back JPY bears from placing fresh bets and caps the upside for the USD/JPY pair.

However, economic risks stemming from the Middle East conflict and energy supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue to undermine the JPY. Apart from this, a persistently wide Japan-US rate differential keeps the JPY bulls on the back foot. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, stands firm near its highest level since May 2025, lending additional support to the USD/JPY pair.

Last week’s sustained breakout through the previous intervention zone, around the 160.50-160.60 area, comes on top of the recent solid bounce from the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and keeps the broader uptrend intact. That said, the Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering in overbought territory near 70, which hints at risk of consolidation or a corrective pause rather than a confirmed near-term top for the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains positive above the zero line, reinforcing the underlying upward pressure. In the meantime, the structural pivot around 160.60-160.50 should protect the immediate downside. Moreover, the 200-day EMA at 156.47 should provide a deeper layer of trend support if a sharper corrective pullback unfolds amid elevated RSI readings.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY daily chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Price Last 30 days

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 30 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD1.73%1.49%1.66%2.90%2.62%3.16%2.85%
EUR-1.73%-0.24%-0.09%1.12%0.88%1.42%1.11%
GBP-1.49%0.24%0.21%1.43%1.16%1.68%1.39%
JPY-1.66%0.09%-0.21%1.17%0.99%1.51%1.10%
CAD-2.90%-1.12%-1.43%-1.17%-0.17%0.33%-0.04%
AUD-2.62%-0.88%-1.16%-0.99%0.17%0.53%0.22%
NZD-3.16%-1.42%-1.68%-1.51%-0.33%-0.53%-0.31%
CHF-2.85%-1.11%-1.39%-1.10%0.04%-0.22%0.31%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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Yen Slides Toward 40-Year Low

The Japanese yen weakened to around 161.5 per dollar on Monday, hovering near its lowest level since 1986 as repeated verbal interventions from Tokyo failed to halt the currency’s decline. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said authorities stood ready to take appropriate action against excessive currency moves at any time, echoing earlier warnings. The yen has now surrendered all the gains made on April 30, when officials carried out a record-sized market intervention to support the currency. The latest drop came despite the Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalization, including a 25-basis-point interest rate increase to 1% last week. The currency also remained under pressure from heavy carry-trade activity, as investors continued to favor short yen positions amid the still-wide interest rate gap between Japan and the US.

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Yen Weakens Despite Verbal Interventions

The Japanese yen weakened beyond 161 per dollar on Friday, falling to its lowest level since July 2024 despite renewed verbal intervention from Japanese authorities. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Thursday that the government remains prepared to respond to excessive currency movements whenever necessary. The yen has now erased all the gains recorded on April 30, when authorities conducted a record-sized intervention to support the currency. The latest decline came despite the Bank of Japan’s gradual tightening cycle, including a 25-basis-point rate hike to 1% earlier this week aimed at addressing an energy-driven inflation shock linked to the Middle East conflict. The dollar also strengthened following the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged while signaling increasing support for additional rate hikes later this year. The widening policy divergence between Japan and the US continued to weigh on the Japanese currency.

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Japanese Yen bears turn cautious amid intervention fears as Iran deal undermines USD

  • USD/JPY bulls pause as intervention fears support the JPY amid a modest USD downtick.
  • The US-Iran peace deal optimism counters the Fed’s hawkish tilt and weighs on the USD.
  • The US-Japan rate differential should cap the JPY and help limit the downside for the pair.

The USD/JPY pair holds steady above mid-160.00s during the Asian session on Thursday, consolidating its gains registered over the past four days to the highest level since July 2024. The US Dollar (USD) pulls back following Wednesday’s hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed)-inspired rally to a fresh high since late March amid the latest optimism over a US-Iran peace deal. Adding to this, intervention fears offer some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) and contribute to capping the currency pair.

US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian electronically signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) aimed at ending hostilities between the two countries and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, Trump said that the 60-day negotiation period to reach a final agreement on Iran’s nuclear program is not a hard deadline, boosting investors’ confidence. This, in turn, prompts some USD profit-taking and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, traders remain on high alert amid speculations that Japanese authorities will step in again to prop up the domestic currency. In fact, Japan’s top foreign exchange diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama have issued repeated warnings that Tokyo is monitoring speculative moves and remains fully prepared to curb further JPY weakness. This, along with the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) historic rate hike to the highest since 1995, limits further JPY losses and caps the USD/JPY pair.

That said, Japan’s borrowing costs remain lower than those of peer nations, including the US. In fact, the Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled the possibility of at least one rate hike this year after leaving its benchmark overnight borrowing rate anchored in the 3.5%-3.75% range on Wednesday. The persistently wide interest rate differential with the US keeps the JPY carry trade active, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains to the upside, and any corrective pullback should be bought into.

Japanese Yen Price Last 30 days

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 30 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD1.21%0.91%1.16%2.66%1.98%1.53%1.81%
EUR-1.21%-0.28%-0.04%1.44%0.79%0.30%0.61%
GBP-0.91%0.28%0.26%1.73%1.05%0.60%0.89%
JPY-1.16%0.04%-0.26%1.48%0.74%0.34%0.60%
CAD-2.66%-1.44%-1.73%-1.48%-0.64%-1.12%-0.82%
AUD-1.98%-0.79%-1.05%-0.74%0.64%-0.46%-0.16%
NZD-1.53%-0.30%-0.60%-0.34%1.12%0.46%0.28%
CHF-1.81%-0.61%-0.89%-0.60%0.82%0.16%-0.28%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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Japan Signals Readiness to Respond to Yen Moves

Japan stands ready to act if needed to address excessive exchange-rate volatility, Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Thursday. He added that the government is prepared to respond to market moves at any time, stating, “We are ready to respond appropriately to currency moves as needed at any time.” He added that officials will continue to closely monitor foreign exchange developments. Kihara noted that while a weaker yen benefits manufacturers by boosting export competitiveness and corporate profits, it also raises import costs, increasing the burden on businesses and households through higher prices. “We need to scrutinise such effects comprehensively,” he said, highlighting the government’s balanced assessment of the currency’s impact on the economy.

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Japanese Yen gains ground as traders await Fed rate decision

  • USD/JPY weakens to around 160.25 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
  • Fed is set to leave its interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% at the June meeting. 
  • BoJ hiked its policy rate by 25bps to 1.00% but gave no strong signal on the timing of the next move. 

The USD/JPY pair loses ground to near 160.25 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh later on Wednesday. 

The Fed is widely expected to stand pat on the interest rates at its June policy meeting. Traders will closely watch the statement, economic projections, and press conference for more hints about the US interest rate path later this year. 

“The Fed is…likely to signal a neutral bias for monetary policy going forward,” said Erik Weisman, chief economist and portfolio manager at MFS Investment Management.

On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.0% from 0.75% as expected. This marks the highest level since 1995. The decision came at a time when Japan had been struggling with a weak JPY and inflation that had started to creep up, partly due to the Iran war.

“While the press conference…contained some optimistic signals regarding the outlook for the Japanese economy, it failed to move the needle much regarding market expectations around the timing of the next BOJ policy move,” said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank.

Traders are on alert for any potential intervention from Japanese authorities to shore up the ailing currency. MUFG analysts said the Japanese Yen’s failure to strengthen after the hike keeps pressure on Japanese officials to intervene again.

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EUR/JPY – Could rebound toward 186.50 as bullish bias prevails

  • EUR/JPY cross may rise toward the all-time high of 187.95.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 60 indicates solid upward momentum.
  • The primary support appears at the nine-day EMA of 185.66.

EUR/JPY depreciates after three days of gains, trading around 186.20 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross holds a constructive bullish bias as it remains above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This positioning suggests the recent advance is supported by underlying demand.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 60 hints at firm but not yet overextended upside momentum. Additionally, the technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the EUR/JPY cross is remaining within the ascending channel pattern, suggesting an ongoing bullish bias.

The EUR/JPY cross may explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, recorded on April 17, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 188.30.

On the downside, the primary support lies at the nine-day EMA of 185.66, followed by the 50-day EMA of 185.18. A break below these moving averages would cause a bearish shift, exposing the lower boundary of the ascending channel near 184.70. Further declines could push the EUR/JPY cross to test its nearly four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, with further declines targeting the six-month low of 180.81, reached on February 12.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.03%-0.01%-0.08%0.02%0.05%0.01%-0.13%
EUR0.03%0.01%-0.06%0.03%0.08%0.08%-0.10%
GBP0.01%-0.01%-0.06%0.03%0.11%0.05%-0.08%
JPY0.08%0.06%0.06%0.08%0.12%0.05%-0.02%
CAD-0.02%-0.03%-0.03%-0.08%0.04%-0.00%-0.11%
AUD-0.05%-0.08%-0.11%-0.12%-0.04%-0.02%-0.13%
NZD-0.01%-0.08%-0.05%-0.05%0.00%0.02%-0.11%
CHF0.13%0.10%0.08%0.02%0.11%0.13%0.11%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).