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GBP/USD Price – Struggles to build on move beyond 1.3200 amid bearish setup

  • GBP/USD attracts some buyers for the second straight day amid a mildly softer US Dollar.
  • The UK political crisis holds back GBP bulls from placing fresh bets and caps spot prices.
  • The bearish technical setup suggests that a further move up is more likely to be sold into.

The GBP/USD pair sticks to its positive bias for the second straight day, though it lacks bullish conviction and trades just above the 1.3200 mark during the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) remains depressed below its highest level since May 2025, touched on Thursday, and acts as a tailwind for spot prices.

However, the UK political crisis holds back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the British Pound (GBP) and caps the upside for the GBP/USD pair. Furthermore, a bearish technical setup warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful recovery from the 1.3140 area, or the lowest since November, set on Wednesday.

Against the backdrop of the recent repeated failures near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, this week’s break below the 1.3300 mark was seen as a key trigger for the GBP/USD bears. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 47, suggesting consolidative conditions rather than clear trend strength.

However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows the MACD line modestly above the signal line and hovering around zero. This hints at tentative bullish momentum that is not yet strong enough to challenge the GBP/USD pair’s dominant downtrend witnessed over the past two months or so.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 200-period SMA at 1.3384, and spot prices would need a sustained break above this level to ease the broader bearish bias and open the way for a more constructive recovery phase. On the downside, intraday setbacks are likely to be driven more by price action than by clearly defined structural supports.

Meanwhile, traders will be watching the recent lows around the mid-1.3100s as a provisional near-term floor for the GBP/USD pair until fresh technical levels emerge.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

GBP/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis GBP/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.14%-0.07%-0.10%-0.04%0.29%0.04%-0.22%
EUR0.14%0.07%0.06%0.13%0.44%0.16%-0.07%
GBP0.07%-0.07%0.00%0.06%0.38%0.12%-0.13%
JPY0.10%-0.06%0.00%0.06%0.39%0.11%-0.12%
CAD0.04%-0.13%-0.06%-0.06%0.33%0.05%-0.20%
AUD-0.29%-0.44%-0.38%-0.39%-0.33%-0.26%-0.52%
NZD-0.04%-0.16%-0.12%-0.11%-0.05%0.26%-0.24%
CHF0.22%0.07%0.13%0.12%0.20%0.52%0.24%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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British Pound holds gains above 1.3150, US PCE inflation data looms

  • GBP/USD rebounds to around 1.3175 in Thursday’s Asian session. 
  • UK PM Keir Starmer resigned on Monday, throwing UK politics into sudden turmoil. 
  • Traders will keep an eye on the US PCE Price Index report for May, which is due on Thursday. 

The GBP/USD pair recovers some lost ground to near 1.3175 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid UK political instability and rising expectations of US interest rate hikes this year. Traders await the US May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data on Thursday for fresh impetus. 

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned on Monday, throwing the country into yet another political crisis. Starmer stepped down under intense pressure following Andy Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election last week. His Labour Party will now need to select a new leader to lead the country.

Traders will closely monitor what Burnham’s policy would look like. Analysts warned that Burnham’s preferred expansionary fiscal stance, higher taxation, and increased gilt issuance could weigh on the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD). 

The US PCE Price Index report for May will take center stage on Thursday. The headline PCE is expected to show a rise of 4.1% YoY in May, compared to 3.8% in April. The core CPE inflation is projected to show an increase of 3.4% YoY in May, versus 3.3% prior.  Any signs of easing inflation in the US could undermine the Greenback and create a tailwind for the major pair. 

Meanwhile, traders reassess the timing of possible US rate hikes after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish signal. Markets have priced in nearly a 34.2% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) hike at the July meeting, up from 8.5% a week ago, and 66.4% for September, up from 29.1%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

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EUR/GBP Price – Testing 10-month lows at 0.8611 in risk-off markets

  • EUR/GBP depreciates 0.6% so far this week to test 10-month lows in the 0.8610 area.
  • A tech rout in stock markets and frictions in the US-Iran peace deal are weighing on risk appetite on Wednesday.
  • Momentum indicators suggest that upside attempts are likely to find sellers.

The Euro (EUR) extends losses for the fourth consecutive day against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday. The EUR/GBP pair has lost about 0.6% so far this week and is testing the 0.8610 area at the time of writing, its lowest level in the last 10 months.

The Pound sterling seems to be faring better than the Euro amid the risk-off market mood. Stock markets in Asia and the US have been dragged down by sharp declines in tech shares, as investors take profits after a long AI rally, while frictions between the US and Iran regarding nuclear inspections have cast a shadow over the outcome of the peace deal.

On the macroeconomic front, the Bank of England’s (BoE) official, Alan Taylor, stated on Tuesday that an extended hold is the right response to the increase in price pressures and that the bank should be ready to cut rates if a benign scenario plays out. In the Eurozone, the focus on Wednesday will be on German ZEW Business Climate data, which is expected to show a minor improvement in June.

Technical Analysis: Euro remains under significant bearish pressure

Chart Analysis EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP trades at 0.8615 with a bearish near-term tone, holding a few pips above the lows of March 2026 and August 2025, with momentum indicators in most timeframes highlighting strong negative pressure. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) sits just above oversold levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative.

A confirmation below the mentioned 0.8611 would expose the August 2025 bottom, at 0.8595, and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of Monday’s sell-off, at the 0.8585 area. On the topside, initial resistance appears at Tuesday’s highs of 0.8634, followed by the June 19 low, at 0.8657. A break above these would open the way toward the June 18 and 21 highs, around 8.8680.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.14%0.08%0.06%0.09%0.08%0.24%0.22%
EUR-0.14%-0.06%-0.07%-0.06%-0.06%0.06%0.09%
GBP-0.08%0.06%-0.04%-0.02%0.00%0.12%0.14%
JPY-0.06%0.07%0.04%0.02%0.00%0.13%0.15%
CAD-0.09%0.06%0.02%-0.02%-0.01%0.10%0.15%
AUD-0.08%0.06%-0.00%-0.01%0.00%0.12%0.13%
NZD-0.24%-0.06%-0.12%-0.13%-0.10%-0.12%0.02%
CHF-0.22%-0.09%-0.14%-0.15%-0.15%-0.13%-0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

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Trade of The Day – GBP/USD

Facts:

GBPUSD bounced off the resistance area near 1.3260 The pair is trading below 100-period moving average from H1 interval

Recommendation:

Trade: Short position on GBPUSD at market price Target: 1.3190, 1.3170 Stop: 1.3283

Opinion:

GBP/USD has been trading in a downward trend recently. Looking at the H1 interval, we can see that the recent upward correction move was stopped at key resistance. The area near 1.3260 is a result of previous local low, as well as 100.0% Fibonacci Expansion measurement, which means that the A, and B are the same size. According to the Elliot Wawe Theory, it may be the end of the local ABC correction, which supports the downward scenario.

In addition, GBPUSD dropped below 100 – period moving average which further confirms bearish sentiment. We recommend going short GBPUSD at market price with two targets: 1.3190 and 1.3170 We also recommend placing a stop loss at 1.3283.

Source: xStation5

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British Pound edges up above 1.3200 after PM Keir Starmer’s resignation

  • GBP/USD edges up above 1.3200 as Prime Minister Keir Starmer announces his resignation.
  • The decision was widely expected with his leadership in question, following a severe defeat in local elections in May.
  • Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Manchester, emerges as the best-positioned candidate to replace Starmer.

The British Pound (GBP) nudged up above 1.3200 against the  US Dollar (USD) on Monday and maintains a mild positive tone, despite news that Sir Keir Starmer resigned as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Labour Party.

Starmer appeared outside 10 Downing Street earlier on Monday to announce his resignation, adding that he will remain in charge until the party decides on a new leader and pledging support to whoever is the next PM.

The decision was widely expected by the market, as his position as prime minister was seriously called into question after a severe defeat in the local elections in England, Scotland and Wales that delivered a sound victory to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK populist party. 

Starmer’s weakness increased last week as the Manchester Mayor, Andy Burnham, the best-positioned Labour leader to replace him, won a seat in parliament, the requirement to become the next prime minister. Later on the day, Burnham is expected to be at Westminster today to be sworn in as MP for Makerfield.

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Euro edges higher against British Pound amid UK political uncertainty

  • EUR/GBP edges higher to near 0.8670 in Monday’s early European session. 
  • UK PM Starmer was considering his political future after rival Andy Burnham’s decisive election victory in parliament.
  • UK Retail Sales climbed  3.2% YOY in May, beating expectations. 

The EUR/GBP cross gathers strength to around 0.8670 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The British Pound (GBP) weakens against the Euro (EUR) due to political uncertainty in the United Kingdom (UK). European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak later in the day. The preliminary readings of Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK will be highlighted later on Tuesday. 

UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is expected to resign to make way for a new leader. It came as cabinet ally Peter Kyle said the UK leader was considering “political realities” after Andy Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election last week cleared a path for him to challenge for the Labour leadership.

“Markets will be focused on Burnham’s views on fiscal policy and whether there will be any relaxation of the current fiscal rules,” said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategists, including Kristina Clifton. “A loosening in fiscal rules would likely be poorly received by the UK bond market” and weigh on the pound, they said.

Nonetheless, hotter-than-expected UK Retail Sales data might cap the downside for the GBP. UK Retail sales rose 3.2% year-on-year in May, versus 0.1% prior,  the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Friday. This figure beat market expectations of a 1.9% annual increase. On a monthly basis, Retail sales increased 1.2% in May, following a revised 1% decline in April.

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GBP/USD – UK political uncertainty calls fresh leg of downfall ahead

  • GBP/USD trades lower to near 1.3220 on renewed UK political uncertainty.
  • US President Trump says UK PM Starmer could resign on failing to fix immigration and energy issues.
  • The Fed is expected to deliver at least two interest rate hikes this year.

The GBP/USD pair recovers some of its early losses, but is still 0.1% down to near 1.3220 during the early European trading session on Monday. The pair remains under pressure amid renewed United Kingdom (UK) political uncertainty after comments from United States (US) President Donald Trump that Prime Minister (PM) Keir Starmer could resign on failing to fix immigration and energy issues.

“Keir Starmer will resign as Prime Minister of The United Kingdom. He failed badly on two very important subjects- IMMIGRATION AND ENERGY (OPEN NORTH SEA OIL!). I wish him well!,” US President Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.

Meanwhile, calls from Labour lawmakers against PM Starmer continuing UK leadership have also accelerated, following Andy Burnham’s strong win in the Makerfield constituency in north-west England.

A Reuters report has shown that UK PM Starmer could decide as early as Monday whether to remain in office and fight a leadership contest or begin the process of stepping down.

Also, an upbeat US Dollar (US) due to increased expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could deliver two interest rate hikes this year is also keeping Cable under pressure. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering at least two interest rate hikes this year is 58.5%, a sharp increase from 17.1% seen a week ago.

Hawkish Fed bets have strengthened following the first monetary policy announcement on Wednesday under new Chairman Kevin Warsh.

GBP/USD technical analysis

Bias: GBP/USD trades lower at around 1.3218 at press time. The pair maintains a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3360. Also, a breakdown of the Symmetrical Triangle strengthens the bearish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 34 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting at a dominant downside momentum.

Resistance: On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the broken rising trend-line region near 1.3250, followed by the 20-period EMA at 1.3360.

Support: On the downside, the pair could slide towards the November 25 low at 1.3096 if it resumes its decline below the June 19 low at 1.3163. The pair could extend its decline towards the psychological support at 1.3000 once it falls below 1.3096.

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Chart of the day: GBP/CHF snaps back on retail sales recovery

The British pound is regaining momentum at the end of the week, driven by a stronger-than-expected batch of UK economic data.

This surprise surge in retail sales successfully halted sterling’s broad decline against most G10 currencies. Leading the recovery is the GBP/CHF pair, which broke cleanly above key moving averages to cement the pound’s robust positioning across Europe this Friday.

GBPCHF is exhibiting a bullish outlook, rebounding firmly to 1.0651 after finding support near the 38.2% Fibonacci level. The pair trades cleanly above its 10, 30, and 100-day EMAs, saving the upward trend. With the RSI at 56.7, there is plenty of room for further gains toward recent local highs. Source: xStation5

What’s Driving GBPCHF Today?

  • Sales Surprise on the Upside: Driven by the joint-third warmest May on record and retail promotions, UK retail sales volumes jumped 1.2% in May 2026, bouncing back from a 1.0% decline in April. This growth significantly outperformed economists’ forecasts, with annual sales rising 3.2%. Department and online stores performed particularly well, boosting the online sales share to 28.8%, though overall volumes still remain 0.4% below their pre-pandemic February 2020 levels.
  • Fragile Trend Sustainability: Over the three months to May 2026, sales volumes edged up 0.4%, supported by strong demand for tech products and outdoor items. However, long-term consumer confidence remains fragile. Shoppers are showing caution regarding big-ticket purchases due to cost-of-living pressures and geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the conflict in Iran. Major supermarket groups like Tesco and Morrisons have already noted a distinct slowdown in sales growth since this conflict began.
  • Burnham’s Turning Point: Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s decisive parliamentary victory in Makerfield has cleared the way for a potential challenge against the deeply unpopular Prime Minister Keir Starmer, threatening fresh political instability in the UK. Positioned as a prime minister-in-waiting and heavily favored by party members, Burnham’s win severely weakens Starmer—who already faces resignation calls from a quarter of his lawmakers—and sets the stage for a high-stakes battle over the future direction of the Labour government.