Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that the Indian Rupee (INR) may now be undervalued following its recent depreciation, Reuters reported on Monday.
Malhotra further stated that the Indian central bank does not target any specific level for the currency, emphasizing that the RBI stands ready to intervene if speculative pressures build up.
RBI Governor said the central bank has enough tools in its kit, including nearly $700 billion in reserves to quell any undue speculative movement. He added that the RBI’s primary mandate is to target inflation. “If the evolving inflation trajectory provides policy space, we support growth,” said Malhotra.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.21% lower on the day at 95.45.
The Indian rupee hovered near 96.4 per dollar, pausing losses after briefly crossing the 97-per-dollar mark for the first time. Softer oil prices offered temporary relief as Brent crude fell more than 5% to near $105 per barrel, while the US 10-year Treasury yield slipped below 4.60%, improving market sentiment. The rupee had remained under pressure, falling nearly 2.5% over nine sessions amid strong dollar demand, rising US yields, and heavy foreign fund outflows. Meanwhile, the central bank has already announced a $5 billion dollar-rupee swap auction scheduled for May 26. The Reserve Bank of India is also reportedly considering measures to stabilize the rupee, including a possible rate hike, additional swap auctions, and schemes to attract foreign currency inflows from non-resident Indians, which officials estimate could bring in up to $50 billion. Markets are now focused on the RBI’s June 3–5 policy meeting for signals on further support measures.
The Indian rupee hovered near 96.1 per dollar, after touching successive record lows in recent sessions, weighed down by rising US Treasury yields, surging crude oil prices, and a broader risk-off mood in global markets. Pressure on emerging-market currencies intensified as the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.6250%, while Brent crude rose nearly 2% to $111.34 per barrel amid stalled US–Iran diplomatic talks. Investor sentiment was further shaken by reports of an attack on a nuclear facility in the UAE and expectations that US President Trump could discuss military options on Iran. Traders expect the rupee to remain under pressure, with the RBI focused on curbing volatility rather than defending a specific exchange-rate level. Separately, investors assessed India’s unemployment rate rising to 5.2% in April 2026 from 5.1%, the highest since October, as elevated energy prices and disruptions in Persian Gulf shipping routes reduced purchasing power.
USD/INR appreciates as the US Dollar gains on increased risk aversion amid Middle East concerns.
Modi’s BJP won a third term in Assam and captured opposition stronghold West Bengal in a key election.
India’s forex reserves fell from $728.5 billion, while equity outflows hit $19 billion in March and April.
USD/INR extends gains for the third successive day, trading around the fresh record high of 95.40, during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Traders will likely observe India’s HSBC Composite and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data to be released on Wednesday.
The USD/INR pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on safe-haven demand following Iran’s attack on the United Arab Emirates (UAE). CNBC reported Monday that the UAE was targeted by Iranian drones and missiles, while the US said it destroyed Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump warned that Iran would be “blown off the face of the earth” if it targets US ships protecting commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Indian Rupee (INR) faced challenges as an overnight surge in crude oil prices dampened investor sentiment. Oil prices, however, have since declined as concerns over immediate supply disruptions eased, with the United States (US) Navy taking steps to reopen the crucial Strait after Iran attempted to close it. Maersk, a Danish shipping and logistics company, later confirmed that its Alliance Fairfax, a US-flagged vehicle carrier, exited the strait under US military escort.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) clinched a third straight term in Assam and captured opposition stronghold West Bengal in a key election.
On Monday, HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in India came in at 54.7 for April, revised down from the preliminary 55.9 but higher than 53.9 in the prior month. Both output and new orders continued to expand, though growth remained subdued relative to levels seen over the past three and a half years.
Foreign institutional investors (FII) turned net buyers of Indian equities on Monday after nine consecutive days of selling, with inflows totaling 28.36 billion rupees ($298 million). Domestic institutional investors (DII) bought local shares worth 47.64 billion rupees, marking their seventh straight session of purchases, per Reuters.
Stock-specific moves linked to earnings are also expected to remain in focus. Nifty 50 constituents Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra and Mahindra, and Hero MotoCorp are scheduled to announce their quarterly results later in the day.
India’s foreign exchange reserves have declined from a peak of $728.5 billion, while equity outflows reached $19 billion across March and April. Nevertheless, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has stated that it remains comfortable with reserve levels sufficient to cover 11 months of imports, though recent policy discussions highlight renewed urgency to strengthen buffers amid ongoing capital outflows.
USD/INR trades around 95.40 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a potential for a bullish emergence as the pair is testing the upper boundary of the rectangular channel.
However, the USD/INR pair retains a bullish near-term bias as price holds above the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 66.7 points to firm positive momentum edging toward overbought territory, suggesting upside pressure persists while leaving the pair vulnerable to bouts of consolidation if buyers lose traction.
The USD/INR pair is testing the upper boundary of the rectangle, followed by the all-time high of 95.40, which was recorded on May 4. On the downside, the initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 94.71. A break below the short-term average would lead the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 93.20, followed by the lower rectangle boundary around 92.50 and a seven-week low of 92.14.
(The story was corrected on May 5 at 6:10 GMT to say in the first paragraph to say that the HSBC PMI data will be released on Wednesday, not Tuesday.)
USD/INR: Daily Chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
INR
USD
0.04%
0.06%
0.00%
-0.02%
0.16%
0.10%
0.14%
EUR
-0.04%
0.00%
-0.02%
-0.03%
0.12%
0.06%
0.25%
GBP
-0.06%
-0.00%
-0.04%
-0.08%
0.10%
0.07%
0.09%
JPY
0.00%
0.02%
0.04%
-0.01%
0.15%
0.11%
0.30%
CAD
0.02%
0.03%
0.08%
0.00%
0.16%
0.11%
0.32%
AUD
-0.16%
-0.12%
-0.10%
-0.15%
-0.16%
-0.04%
0.15%
NZD
-0.10%
-0.06%
-0.07%
-0.11%
-0.11%
0.04%
-0.01%
INR
-0.14%
-0.25%
-0.09%
-0.30%
-0.32%
-0.15%
0.01%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
USD/INR steadies as traders assess progress in US–Iran talks amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty.
Indian Rupee may gain support from improved sentiment and easing oil prices.
Focus is on the four-state election results, with Narendra Modi’s party projected to win two, boosting his standing.
USD/INR loses ground after registering modest gains in the previous trading day, hovering around 94.90 during the Asian hours on Monday. Traders evaluate progress in the United States (US)–Iran peace negotiations. HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be eyed later in the day.
The Indian Rupee (INR) may find some support from improved market sentiment as mediation efforts to end the war have continued, as the conflict in Iran enters its third month. Iran said it is reviewing Washington’s response to its latest 14-point proposal, boosting optimism for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. Trump suggested that Tehran’s latest peace proposal may fall short of expectations, Bloomberg reported Sunday.
The INR may also face fewer challenges as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price remains in the negative territory for the third successive day, trading around $98.30 per barrel at the time of writing. It is important to note that India is a major oil importer, and cheaper oil reduces US Dollar demand by oil companies.
Crude oil prices struggled after a Sunday report by Bloomberg indicated that Donald Trump said the United States would begin guiding neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday. The initiative is intended to help civilian vessels from non-aligned countries exit the contested waterway and resume normal operations.
The Rupee remains under sustained pressure, caught in a feedback loop of high oil prices that have dented sentiment, driven heavier importer hedging, and sustained dollar demand from refiners.
Elevated crude has also sidelined foreign investors from Indian equities. Portfolio outflows neared about $6.5 billion in April, taking cumulative 2026 withdrawals to about $20.6 billion, exceeding all of 2025 and adding to dollar demand, according to Reuters.
Indian equities opened higher on Monday, aided by softer oil prices, while key state election results remain in focus. Vote counting began across four major states, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party projected to win two, boosting his standing midway through his third term.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR eyes 95.00 near fresh record highs
USD/INR trades around 94.90 at the time of writing on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing neutral bias as the pair remains within the rectangular channel.
However, the USD/INR pair holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating a bullish near-term bias. The alignment of shorter- over longer-dated EMAs hints at sustained upside pressure, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 64 stays in bullish territory without yet signaling extreme overbought conditions.
The USD/INR pair may retest the upper boundary of the rectangle, aligned with the all-time high of 95.33, which was recorded on April 30. On the downside, the initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 94.48. A break below the short-term average would lead the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 93.10, followed by the lower rectangle boundary around 92.50 and a seven-week low of 92.14.
USD/INR: Daily Chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Indian Rupee.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
INR
USD
-0.10%
-0.09%
-0.33%
-0.01%
-0.13%
-0.37%
0.03%
EUR
0.10%
-0.03%
-0.24%
0.09%
0.02%
-0.27%
0.00%
GBP
0.09%
0.03%
-0.23%
0.11%
0.00%
-0.25%
0.19%
JPY
0.33%
0.24%
0.23%
0.29%
0.15%
-0.09%
0.21%
CAD
0.01%
-0.09%
-0.11%
-0.29%
-0.14%
-0.39%
-0.09%
AUD
0.13%
-0.02%
-0.01%
-0.15%
0.14%
-0.28%
0.02%
NZD
0.37%
0.27%
0.25%
0.09%
0.39%
0.28%
0.44%
INR
-0.03%
0.00%
-0.19%
-0.21%
0.09%
-0.02%
-0.44%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Indian rupee hovered near 94.9 per dollar, steadying near record levels as markets continued to digest persistent external pressures. Oil prices held steady after an initial dip, with traders weighing the effectiveness of a US initiative aimed at improving safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude stayed above $108 a barrel after early volatility, while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $102, keeping energy costs elevated. Sentiment was also shaped by renewed security concerns after a tanker was struck by projectiles near the UAE coast. The rupee had earlier weakened to a record 95.33 before stabilising, with traders noting that central bank intervention may be helping to curb sharper swings. Looking ahead, currency and bond markets are expected to remain sensitive to oil, geopolitics, and upcoming economic data that could shape global growth expectations.
The Indian Rupee recovers slightly from its record lows of around 95.35 against the US Dollar.
Oil prices hit a fresh over seven-week high as US President Trump vows to prolong the blockade on Iran.
More Fed members call for a shift from easing bias.
The Indian Rupee (INR) claws back some of its early losses against the US Dollar (USD) during afternoon market hours in India on Thursday after plummeting to record lows. The USD/INR pair corrects slightly to near 95.10 as the US Dollar turns upside down, but is still close to its all-time high 95.35. The pair rallied in the opening as oil prices gained sharply, following remarks from United States (US) President Donald Trump that Washington’s naval blockade on Iran will remain intact.
Trump warns prolong naval blockade on Iran
On late Wednesday, US President Trump announced that he has rejected the recent peace proposal from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for almost 20% of global energy supply, whose closure has prompted the supply crisis and has boosted oil prices, which could have delayed negotiations regarding Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
US President Trump said that Washington will continue the naval blockade of Iran until he secures a deal with Tehran to address the country’s nuclear program.
At the press time, the WTI Oil price ticks lower to near $105.00 after facing slight profit booking near its fresh over seven-week high of $107.35 posted earlier in the day.
Currencies from economies, such as India that rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.
Fed sees current policy stance as appropriate
The US Dollar gives back its early losses and slides lower; however, its outlook remains upbeat, following remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that the “number of officials who would support a move away from an easing bias has increased”.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.18% lower to near 98.80.
On Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates steady in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, with an 8-4 majority. One member dissented in favor of a rate cut, while three dissented against the inclusion of an easing bias, according to the monetary policy statement.
In the press conference, Fed Chair Powell warned that the central bank is vigilant to “risks on both sides of our mandate”, adding, “Developments in the Middle East are contributing to uncertainty.”
FIIs continue to dump their stake in Indian stock market
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remain net sellers in the Indian stock market amid surging oil prices, which have raised concerns about India Inc.’s earnings projections. Overseas investors have remained net sellers in all previous eight trading days, and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 22,863.50
Technical Analysis: USD/INR sees more upside towards 96.00
USD/INR posts a fresh all-time high near 95.35 during the day on Thursday. The pair holds a firm bullish bias as spot remains well above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 93.83, keeping the short-term uptrend intact.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 65.77, indicating strong but not yet extreme upside momentum, which suggests buyers still retain control, though the risk of overextension is building.
On the downside, initial support is aligned with the 20-EMA around 93.81, where a deeper pullback would be expected to attract dip buyers and maintain the broader advance while it holds. A daily close below this dynamic floor would hint at fading upside pressure and open the door to a more extended correction toward prior price congestion levels not yet tested in the current leg. Looking up, the price has entered uncharted territory and will likely extend its rally towards 96.00.
The Indian Rupee continues to underperform against the US Dollar amid rising oil prices.
US President Trump warns of extending the blockade on Iranian sea ports.
The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its decline against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair rallies further to near 94.75, as oil prices have extended their advance, following comments from United States (US) officials on late Tuesday that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported.
At the press time, the WTI Oil price trades flat around $97.00 but gained sharply in the late Tuesday’s session to near $99.50, the highest level seen in almost three weeks.
Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.
Trump prefers squeezing oil flows from Iran than bombing its territory again
The WSJ report showed the US President Trump has stated that the continuation of the blockade of Iranian sea ports is a preferred measure to push Tehran on the back foot in negotiating terms for a permanent ceasefire than bombing Iranian territory again.
The continuous US blockade on Iran means the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for almost 20% of global energy supply.
FIIs keep offloading their stake in Indian stock market
Overseas investors have emerged as net sellers for the seventh straight trading day on Tuesday, and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 20,395.08 crore. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) worry that “higher-for-longer” oil prices would be a major drag on India Inc.’s earnings projections by hitting their margins and will also diminish households’ spending power.
Investors shift focus to the Fed policy
On Wednesday, the major trigger for global markets will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT, in which the central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%.
The Fed is expected to warn of upside inflation and downside economic risks amid escalated energy prices. This will be the last Fed policy meeting by Jerome Powell as Chairman. Investors will pay close attention to Fed Chair Powell’s speech to get fresh cues on the US interest rate outlook.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR approaches all-time high above 95.00
USD/INR trades higher at around 94.75 in the opening session on Wednesday. The pair holds a bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at roughly 93.66, keeping the recent advance supported.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 63 suggests firm but not yet overbought upside momentum, reinforcing the constructive tone while leaving room for additional gains.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA near 93.66. As long as USD/INR defends this moving average, dips are likely to attract buying interest, and the broader uptrend is expected to stay intact. Looking up, the spot is expected to revisit the all-time high slightly above 95.00.
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