INR

The Indian rupee hovered around 95.2 per dollar, pausing recent losses after multi-week lows as investors assessed persistent dollar demand, Reserve Bank of India intervention, and broader weakness in Asian currencies. The local currency’s outlook weakened after it fell nearly 1% last week, pressured by arbitrage-related outflows, routine importer demand for US dollars, and a stronger greenback amid expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for an extended period. Although the dollar eased following a softer-than-expected June employment report, traders expect only limited relief for the rupee. While lower crude oil prices offered support, persistent dollar demand has limited the rupee’s recovery, even as the central bank continues to smooth volatility through dollar sales. Globally, attention is on the Fed’s latest meeting minutes and the upcoming US inflation report, both of which could shape interest rate expectations and the dollar’s direction.

The Indian rupee hovered around 95.2 per dollar, pausing recent losses as the greenback softened on softer-than-expected labor data. June payroll growth slowed sharply while gains for the previous two months were revised lower, prompting traders to reduce the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to around 53%, down from 75% before the report. The weaker dollar lifted most Asian currencies, providing support for the rupee. Despite the improved sentiment, investors continue to monitor merchant and portfolio flows after the rupee fell to a three-week low in the previous session, pressured by arbitrage-related demand and importer dollar purchases. Earlier this week, the currency was supported by interventions from the RBI in both the onshore spot and offshore non-deliverable forwards markets. However, those efforts were largely offset by persistent dollar demand from foreign banks and oil companies, as well as continued foreign investor outflows from Indian equities.

The Indian rupee hovered around 94.7 per dollar, extending its recent losses as rising US Treasury yields strengthened the greenback and weighed on Asian currencies. Higher bond yields dampened demand for emerging-market assets, while renewed dollar buying and weaker regional currencies kept pressure on the rupee. Market sentiment remained cautious after stronger-than-expected US labor market data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. Investors are now awaiting additional US employment data for further clues on the Fed’s policy outlook. Meanwhile, higher oil prices added another headwind for the currency, as firmer crude prices typically increase India’s import bill and demand for dollars. Oil gained support after a Qatari official said US envoys in Doha would not hold high-level talks with Iran, casting doubt on near-term diplomatic progress and reducing expectations of a potential increase in Iranian oil supplies.

The Indian rupee fell to around 94.8 per dollar, retreating after a brief stabilization as renewed strength in the greenback and shifting expectations for US monetary policy overshadowed lower crude oil prices. The currency came under renewed pressure after the dollar index climbed to its highest level in more than a year, driven by growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve could implement one or two additional interest-rate hikes before the end of the year. The rupee’s decline was partly cushioned by a sharp drop in oil prices, with Brent crude falling below $77 per barrel and posting losses of roughly 16.5% for the month. The decline in energy prices has been supported by signs that tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz are gradually returning to normal. Additional support came from improving capital-flow dynamics. Foreign investment into Indian debt markets has strengthened, while equity-market outflows have moderated compared with earlier months.

The Indian rupee hovered near 94.3 per dollar, steadying after reaching six-week highs as easing geopolitical tensions and softer crude oil prices supported sentiment. Oil prices declined after Iranian officials reported progress in negotiations with the United States, with Brent crude for August delivery falling 1.7% to $79.24 per barrel following signs of constructive talks in Switzerland. However, uncertainty persisted after US President Donald Trump warned that military action against Iran could resume, even as Vice President JD Vance met Iranian officials under an interim peace arrangement. Tehran’s renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz added to market caution. Gains were partly capped as the dollar index held just below 101 and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield edged higher, though it remained below recent peaks. Investors are now focused on upcoming US inflation and growth data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

The Indian rupee hovered around 94.2 per dollar, extending gains to a six-week high as improving capital flows lifted investor sentiment. Market participants reported an improvement in foreign-exchange flows, with increased investment into Indian bonds and a slowdown in foreign equity outflows helping strengthen demand for the local currency. This marks a shift from the one-sided dollar demand that had pressured the rupee in recent weeks. The decline in crude oil prices following easing geopolitical tensions has reduced pressure on India’s import bill. Interbank market sentiment has also improved, with traders becoming more willing to take positions on both sides of the market rather than consistently buying dollars on dips, reflecting increased confidence in the rupee. However, the rupee’s gains remain challenged by a stronger dollar, with expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy boosting demand for the greenback amid persistent inflation concerns.