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GBP/JPY slides to 215.25 after BoJ’s hawkish pause; downside seems limited

  • GBP/JPY retreats further from a multi-year top as the BoJ’s hawkish outlook boosts the JPY.
  • A 6-3 vote split and upward revision of inflation forecasts keep BoJ rate hike bets on the table.
  • Bets for two BoE rate hikes by late 2026 should support the GBP and limit losses for spot prices.

The GBP/JPY cross attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday and, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day winning streak to its highest level since January 2008, just above the 216.00 mark touched the previous day. Spot prices touch a fresh daily low, around the 215.25 region, amid a goodish pickup in demand for the Japanese Yen (JPY) following the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy decision.

As was widely expected, the Japanese central bank left the short-term interest rate unadjusted at 0.75%. The JPY, however, gains strong positive traction in reaction to a hawkish vote split, with three board members voting for a rate hike. Furthermore, the BoJ delivered a significantly more hawkish inflation outlook amid elevated Crude Oil prices and acknowledged that the Iran war is clouding the economic growth trajectory.

Meanwhile, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that Crude Oil volatility is feeding into FX markets and affecting the broader economy. Katayama also warned that authorities were ready to take decisive action against speculative activity, fueling intervention fears and underpinning the JPY. Moreover, a firmer US Dollar (USD) weighs on the British Pound (GBP), which contributes to the GBP/JPY pair’s intraday slide.

Any meaningful GBP downfall, however, seems elusive in the wake of rising bets for two Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hikes by late 2026. Furthermore, investors remain worried that Japan’s economy will come under substantial strains as the risk to energy supplies remains due to continued disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This, in turn, could support the GBP/JPY cross and help limit losses.

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EUR/JPY slips below 186.50 following BoJ policy decision

  • EUR/JPY holds losses after the Bank of Japan policy decision.
  • The BoJ kept its short-term rate at 0.75% on Tuesday, as expected.
  • ECB is expected to keep its deposit rate at 2.0% on Thursday.

EUR/JPY remains subdued after two days of gains, trading around 186.40 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross holds losses following the release of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy decision.

The Bank of Japan left its short-term rate unchanged at 0.75% after its two-day policy meeting Tuesday, in line with expectations. The decision passed 6–3, with board members Nakagawa, Takata, and Naoki Tamura dissenting and proposing a hike to 1.0%.

BoJ’s Nakagawa said while situation in middle east remained unclear, given economic developments, risks to prices were skewed to the upside under accommodative financial conditions. While, Takata said price stability target had been more or less achieved and that risks to prices in japan were already skewed to the upside due to the second-round effects of price rises stemming from overseas developments.

Economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave policy unchanged at Thursday’s meeting, maintaining its benchmark deposit rate at 2.0%, where it has remained since June last year.

ECB policymakers are likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach amid elevated economic uncertainty driven by the Middle East conflict. ECB official Martins Kazaks said last week that “we still have the large luxury of collecting data and forming our view.”

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GBP/JPY slips as UK political risk pressures Pound, Yen weakness limits losses

  • GBP/JPY trims intraday gains as the British Pound softens on UK political uncertainty.
  • Markets await the BoE and BoJ monetary policy decisions due this week.
  • Technicals remain bullish above key SMAs, though momentum shows signs of cooling.

GBP/JPY gives back part of its earlier gains on Monday as the British Pound (GBP) comes under pressure following reports that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will face a parliamentary vote on a possible probe into whether he misled lawmakers over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States.

However, the downside remains limited as the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to underperform most of its major peers, with elevated Oil prices weighing on the currency given Japan’s heavy reliance on imported energy.

At the time of writing, GBP/JPY is trading around 215.67, easing slightly after hitting 216.06, its highest level since January 2008, while the wide interest rate differential between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) keeps the broader bias tilted to the upside.

Attention now turns to upcoming monetary policy meetings due this week, with both the BoE and the BoJ widely expected to hold rates steady as policymakers assess the impact of rising Oil prices on inflation and economic growth.

The BoJ’s slow pace of policy normalization is likely to keep the Yen on the defensive, although lingering intervention risks could limit further weakness amid repeated warnings from Japanese officials, with USD/JPY hovering close to the 160 mark.

In the daily chart, GBP/JPY keeps a bullish near-term bias as it holds well above both the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at 213.60 and the 50-day SMA at 212.24. The positive but moderating Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 65 and a still-positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram hint that upside momentum persists, though the pace of the advance is losing some steam as the cross consolidates near recent highs.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 21-day SMA at 213.60, with a deeper pullback likely finding additional demand near the 50-day SMA at 212.24. As long as GBP/JPY holds above these moving averages, the broader bullish structure remains intact, and any dips toward this support band may be treated as corrective rather than signaling a sustained reversal.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.14%-0.08%-0.06%-0.43%-0.49%-0.51%-0.03%
EUR0.14%0.08%0.09%-0.28%-0.32%-0.35%0.13%
GBP0.08%-0.08%0.00%-0.38%-0.43%-0.45%0.05%
JPY0.06%-0.09%0.00%-0.35%-0.42%-0.46%0.09%
CAD0.43%0.28%0.38%0.35%-0.06%-0.10%0.41%
AUD0.49%0.32%0.43%0.42%0.06%-0.01%0.47%
NZD0.51%0.35%0.45%0.46%0.10%0.01%0.49%
CHF0.03%-0.13%-0.05%-0.09%-0.41%-0.47%-0.49%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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USD/JPY: Convergence delayed but capped by intervention – HSBC

HSBC strategists highlight that the Japanese Yen (JPY) has been the weakest G10 currency month-to-date, with USD/JPY trading in an unusually narrow range despite Japan’s large net energy import status and Gulf exposure. They argue a cautious Bank of Japan (BoJ) and domestic fiscal issues may delay USD/JPY’s move lower, although intervention risks and portfolio inflows should cap upside. HSBC’s base case still sees USD/JPY declining by year-end.

BoJ caution and fiscal strains vs caps

“Bearish sentiment towards JPY is consistent with Japan’s macro exposure. Japan is the largest net energy importer among advanced economies (scaled by GDP) and has deep economic ties with the Gulf region.”

“Despite these headwinds, USD-JPY has traded in an unusually narrow range recently. A cautious Bank of Japan (BoJ) and domestic fiscal challenges may delay USD/JPY’s convergence lower towards levels implied by rate differentials.”

“Key fiscal watchpoints include the possibility that funding for fuel subsidies may run out in mid/late May and that a supplementary budget may be proposed.”

“Offsetting factors include net portfolio inflows (foreign buying of Japanese equities and bonds month-to-date in April, alongside Japanese selling of foreign bonds) and firm verbal intervention from the Ministry of Finance, may help cap USD/JPY.”

“Our base case remains for USD/JPY to decline by year-end. Near-term upside risks include a more dovish BoJ, a more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed), escalation in the Middle East conflict and renewed oil-price highs, and further fiscal slippage in Japan.”

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EUR/JPY Tests nine-day EMA support near 186.50

  • EUR/JPY may explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 60 signals positive momentum without extreme conditions.
  • The immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 186.75.

EUR/JPY inches lower after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around 186.70 during Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross is positioned within the ascending channel, signaling an ongoing bullish bias.

The EUR/JPY cross holds a bullish near-term bias as it consolidates above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), respectively. The currency cross is hovering just under the recent highs, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 60, suggesting positive but not extreme momentum that keeps the door open for another push higher while dips remain contained.

The EUR/JPY cross may advance toward the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17. Further advances above this level would support the currency cross to explore the region around the upper boundary of the channel, around 189.70.

On the downside, the immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 186.75, aligned with the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 186.60. A sustained break below the channel would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the 50-day EMA at 184.94.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.06%-0.07%-0.10%-0.03%-0.30%-0.17%-0.02%
EUR0.06%0.02%-0.04%0.03%-0.22%-0.09%0.04%
GBP0.07%-0.02%-0.04%0.02%-0.22%-0.09%0.04%
JPY0.10%0.04%0.04%0.08%-0.20%-0.09%0.11%
CAD0.03%-0.03%-0.02%-0.08%-0.27%-0.16%0.01%
AUD0.30%0.22%0.22%0.20%0.27%0.14%0.28%
NZD0.17%0.09%0.09%0.09%0.16%-0.14%0.15%
CHF0.02%-0.04%-0.04%-0.11%-0.01%-0.28%-0.15%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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The Japanese Yen holds steady as BoJ and Fed rate decisions in focus

  • USD/JPY flat lines around 159.50 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
  • Markets expect the BoJ to leave interest rates unchanged on Tuesday. 
  • The FOMC is anticipated to maintain the federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75% at its April meeting on Wednesday.

The USD/JPY pair trades on a flat note near 159.50 during the early Asian session on Monday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key interest rate decisions from both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Markets anticipate the Japanese central bank keeping interest rates steady at 0.75% on Tuesday. While a “hawkish hold” is possible, officials are balancing rising energy-driven inflation against economic uncertainty caused by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, intervention fears could provide some support to the JPY and act as a headwind for the pair. Japanese authorities, including Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, highlighted a “high sense of urgency” regarding speculative and weak-JPY moves driven by Middle East tensions. 

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain the benchmark federal funds rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, marking the third consecutive meeting without a change. This meeting may be the final one for Jerome Powell, whose successor, Kevin Warsh, is nearing confirmation.

Traders will take more cues from the press conference on how policymakers are interpreting the impact of higher energy costs and whether this alters their longer-term outlook on interest rates. Any hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers could lift the Greenback against the Japanese Yen (JPY). 

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Currency Talk – AUDCAD, NZDUSD, USDJPY

Key takeaways

  • What is the technical outlook for AUDCAD, NZDUSD, and USDJPY?

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where a reversal might occur. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.

AUDCAD

Since late March, AUDCAD has been trending upward. The key level remains the support at 0.9755, which stems from the lower boundary of the local 1:1 pattern, as well as from previous local peaks. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as the price remains above this level, the uptrend remains in effect. However, it is worth noting the lack of a clear demand reaction—further tests of this support level could weaken it, increasing the risk of a breakout to the downside. Therefore, the 0.9755 level is critical in the short term for the direction of the market.

AUDCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

NZDUSD

Since early April, the NZDUSD pair has been trending upward, but the market is currently testing key support at the 0.5840 level. Holding this level could trigger another upward move. Conversely, a break below this level and a return below 0.5828 could pave the way for a resumption of the downward trend. The current levels are therefore crucial for determining the short-term direction.

NZDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

USDJPY

USDJPY has been trending upward for quite some time, but in April we saw a consolidation phase and two tests of support at the 158.10 level. This level was successfully defended, which supports the current uptrend. A break above the March 29 high would confirm the continuation of the uptrend. However, as long as support at 158.10 holds, the base case scenario is for further gains. A break below this level, however, could lead to a larger correction toward 155.11.

USDJPY – H4 chart. Source: xStation

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JPY hangs near two-week low vs USD as Japan’s National CPI fails to impress bulls

  • USD/JPY trades with a positive bias for the fifth straight day and flirts with a nearly two-week top.
  • Economic concerns due to the Hormuz standoff and delayed BoJ rate hike bets undermine the JPY.
  • Less dovish Fed expectations support the USD and the pair, though intervention fears cap the upside.

The USD/JPY pair sticks to its positive bias for the fifth straight day and trades around the 159.80 area, or a nearly two-week top during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices remain on track to register strong weekly gains, though the mixed fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for a breakout through over a one-month-old range before positioning for a firm near-term direction.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its relative underperformance amid economic concerns stemming from intensifying tensions in the Middle East, which, along with a bullish US Dollar (USD), acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. Investors remain skeptical about a durable agreement between the US and Iran amid the lack of progress in peace talks due to the American blockade of Iranian ports. Iran has set the complete removal of the US naval blockade as a strict precondition for resuming negotiations.

Meanwhile, Iran attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday and seized two of them. This adds to worries that Japan’s economy will come under substantial strains due to continued disruptions to energy supplies through the strategic waterway. Adding to this, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold interest rates steady at its upcoming April meeting, bolstered by the latest inflation figures, turn out to be another factor undermining the JPY and supporting the USD/JPY pair.

A government report showed that Japan’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) recovered from its lowest level in nearly four years and rose to the 1.5% YoY rate in March. Moreover, the core gauge, which excludes volatile fresh food costs, climbed 1.8% from 1.6% in February, though it remained below the BoJ’s 2% annual target. That said, the Core CPI that excludes both fresh food and fuel costs rose 2.4%, suggesting that price pressures remain sticky and backing the case for an imminent BoJ rate hike.

The data, however, does little to provide any respite to the JPY bulls. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, preserves its gains registered over the past three days amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties and fading dovish US Federal Reserve (Fed) bets. This further contributes to a positive tone surrounding the USD/JPY pair. However, speculations that Japanese authorities will step in to stem further weakness in the domestic currency help limit deeper JPY losses and cap gains for the currency pair.