Forex

• US April CPI on Tuesday is forecast at 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY, with a hotter print likely to weigh on Sterling.
• Thursday’s UK Q1 GDP, consensus 0.6% QoQ, is the only domestic release with real potential to drive Sterling this week.
• Iran-US clashes flared again over the weekend, with the Strait of Hormuz shut and global energy supply risk elevated.

Sterling pulled back from a fresh peak near 1.3650 on Monday, easing close to 1.3610 through European trade after the Asian session squeezed the Pound to a new local high. The rejection from the 1.3650 area produced a sharp intraday reversal, with a string of red candles unwinding most of the overnight push and pointing to fading upside momentum ahead of a heavy data week.

The week ahead is a US-heavy affair: Tuesday’s April Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the centerpiece, with consensus penciling in 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY headline alongside a 0.4% MoM, 2.7% YoY core read, in part reflecting the first full month of Iran-conflict energy pass-through. Wednesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) print is forecast hotter again at 0.5% MoM and 4.9% YoY, with Thursday’s Retail Sales penciled at 0.5% MoM. A heavier Federal Reserve speaking calendar bookends each release, with Williams, Goolsbee, Kashkari, Schmid, Hammack, and Barr all scheduled, leaving the US Dollar exposed to two-way risk on every print and every headline. A hotter-than-expected CPI in particular would underline how Strait of Hormuz disruption is feeding through to US prices and tend to weigh on Sterling.

On the UK side, the calendar is thin. Thursday’s release block, headlined by the Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) preliminary print at 0.6% QoQ and 0.8% YoY consensus alongside the March monthly read forecast at minus 0.2% MoM, is the only domestic catalyst with real potential to move Sterling. An upside surprise would help the Pound break free of its consolidation, while a softer set would deepen the stagflation narrative that has built since UK March CPI ran at 3.3% YoY. Bank of England (BoE) commentary from Greene on Monday and Mann on Wednesday will fill the gaps but is unlikely to drive direction. Fresh Iran-US clashes over the weekend, with the Strait of Hormuz still shut and Washington’s reopening proposal awaiting an Iranian response, continue to set the macro tone, while reported internal Labour pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer adds a modest political risk premium on the Pound that a soft GDP print would only widen.

GBP/USD 15-minute chart

Technical Analysis

In the fifteen-minute chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3609. The pair holds a mild intraday bullish bias as it sits above the daily open at 1.3584, keeping the latest rebound intact despite the lack of nearby moving average references. However, the Stochastic RSI has recently shifted from overbought extremes toward the lower end of its range, hinting that upside momentum is cooling after the earlier advance.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the daily open level around 1.3584, where buyers may look to defend the broader intraday up-move. A sustained break below this floor would weaken the constructive tone and expose deeper pullbacks, while holding above it would keep the short-term bias tilted to the upside even as momentum indicators stay in a corrective phase.

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3611 with a bullish near-term bias, as spot holds above both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). The pair has extended its advance away from these reclaimed trend filters, suggesting underlying demand remains in control, while the Stochastic RSI around 61 indicates positive but not overstretched momentum, leaving room for further gains if buyers stay in charge.

On the topside, immediate support-turned-reference now comes from the 50-day EMA at 1.3480, followed by the 200-day EMA near 1.3399, which together mark a broader demand band on any corrective pullback. As long as daily closes remain above these EMAs, the technical backdrop would continue to favor dip-buying strategies over a deeper reversal.