The offshore yuan slipped to around 6.76 per dollar on Tuesday, retreating from a more than three-year high reached in the previous session as investors weighed a mixed set of economic data from China. New home prices across 70 cities marked the 35th consecutive month of contraction and remaining at their steepest pace since May 2025, while fixed-asset investment declined more than market expectations in the January–May period. Moreover, retail sales unexpectedly fell in May, marking the first annual decline since December 2022. Providing some support, industrial output exceeded market expectations in May, accelerating from April’s near three-year low. In addition, the surveyed urban unemployment rate eased to a five-month low in May. Adding to the currency’s pullback, Allianz Global Investors scaled back some of its bullish yuan positions and shifted to a neutral stance, locking in gains after a rally that propelled the yuan to become Asia’s best-performing major currency this year.
Swiss Franc edges higher on US–Iran peace deal
- USD/CHF falls to around 0.7930 in Monday’s early European session.
- US and Iran confirmed a ‘peace deal’ was reached, signing in Switzerland on Friday.
- The Fed is widely anticipated to keep its interest rate steady as it remains in “wait-and-see” mode.
The USD/CHF pair slumps to near 0.7930, the lowest since June 5, during the early European trading hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) after the US and Iran announced a framework deal for peace. Traders brace for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday.
US President Donald Trump on Sunday announced a “great deal” to end the war with Iran. Iran’s National Security Council stated that the US naval blockade will be lifted immediately and the war will end on all fronts, including Lebanon. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that the official signing ceremony for the “peace deal” will take place on Friday in Switzerland. Signs of progress in the US-Iran peace agreement boost the CHF and create a headwind for the pair.
The US central bank is set to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% at its upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday. Traders will closely monitor the press conference and take more cues about how new Fed chair Kevin Warsh will lead the US central bank into its next era. Any hawkish remarks from Fed officials could lift the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair.
Markets have priced in nearly a 64% chance of a Fed interest rate hike in December this year after the peace deal, down from 69% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
New Zealand Dollar gains on easing risk aversion
- NZD/USD holds strong despite New Zealand’s services sector contracting for a fourth straight month as May’s PSI dropped to 47.5.
- The US Dollar declines as a US-Iran peace deal eases geopolitical tensions, lowering global inflation and interest rate concerns.
- Iran stated final talks depend on US compliance, demanding an immediate and complete end to the maritime blockade.
NZD/USD gains ground after registering minor losses in the previous day, trading around 0.5850 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair remains stronger as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds ground following the release of domestic economic data.
New Zealand’s services sector continues to struggle, as the BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) fell to 47.5 in May, down from a revised 48.7 in April. This marks the fourth consecutive month of contraction for the sector.
Concurrently, the broader economy is showing signs of a deeper slowdown. The Performance of Composite Index dropped from a revised 49.2 to 48.4, signaling its third straight month of contraction and its steepest decline since June 2025.
The NZD/USD pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) declines after the United States (US) and Iran had reached a deal to end their conflict, easing concerns about inflation and higher interest rates.
Washington and Tehran said on Sunday that they have reached an agreement that will take effect on Friday. US President Donald Trump stated that the US is lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen after the agreement is signed.
The United Kingdom (UK), France, Germany and Italy said that the countries were prepared to lift sanctions on Iran in response to steps on its nuclear program after the US and Iran reached a deal to end their war.
Iran’s National Security Council confirmed a ceasefire agreement with the US, adding that final deal talks will start after the other party fulfills commitments under the memorandum of understanding. Iranian officials said the maritime blockade against Iran should end immediately and entirely.
United States Dollar Index drops as safe-haven demand fades
- US Dollar Index declines on fading safe-haven demand as a US-Iran deal eases inflation and interest rate concerns.
- Washington and Tehran announced Sunday they have reached a peace agreement, which will officially take effect this coming Friday.
- The CME FedWatch tool shows December Fed rate hike odds falling to nearly 27% after the peace deal.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground and trading around 99.50 during the Asian hours on Monday. The Greenback declines on fading safe-haven demand following reports that the United States (US) and Iran reached a deal to end their conflict, easing concerns about inflation and higher interest rates.
Washington and Tehran said on Sunday that they have reached an agreement that will take effect on Friday. US President Donald Trump stated that the US is lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen after the agreement is signed.
The United Kingdom (UK), France, Germany and Italy said that the countries were prepared to lift sanctions on Iran in response to steps on its nuclear program after the US and Iran reached a deal to end their war.
Iran’s National Security Council confirmed a ceasefire agreement with the US, adding that final deal talks will start after the other party fulfills commitments under the memorandum of understanding. Iranian officials said the maritime blockade against Iran should end immediately and entirely.
The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the markets are pricing in nearly a 27% probability of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in December this year after the peace deal, down from 40% a week ago.
Australian Dollar strengthens on risk-on mood
- AUD/USD advances despite the fact that markets are ruling out any interest rate action on Tuesday.
- US Dollar declines as a US-Iran peace deal faded safe-haven demand, easing fears of inflation and higher interest rates.
- The CME FedWatch tool shows December Fed rate hike odds falling to nearly 27% after the peace deal.
AUD/USD gains around 0.5% after registering minor losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7080 during the Asian hours on Monday. However, the Australian Dollar (AUD) could struggle against the US Dollar (USD) as markets are ruling out a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate move at Tuesday’s June meeting and have lowered bets for an August hike. All eyes now turn to the May CPI data on June 24, which will be critical for policymakers looking for signs of persistent inflation to justify future policy tightening.
The AUD/USD pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) declines on fading safe-haven demand following reports that the United States (US) and Iran reached a deal to end their conflict, easing concerns about inflation and higher interest rates.
Washington and Tehran said on Sunday that they have reached an agreement that will take effect on Friday. US President Donald Trump stated that the US is lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen after the agreement is signed.
The United Kingdom (UK), France, Germany and Italy said that the countries were prepared to lift sanctions on Iran in response to steps on its nuclear program after the US and Iran reached a deal to end their war.
The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the markets are pricing in nearly a 27% probability of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in December this year after the peace deal, down from 40% a week ago.
Indian Rupee surges as oil prices nosedive on US-Iran MoU finalization
- The Indian Rupee soars against the US Dollar on the finalization of the US-Iran deal.
- Plunging oil prices due to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as per the post from US President Trump.
- The selling pressure by overseas investors has slowed down in the last two trading days.
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens strongly against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR pair plunges to near 94.60 as oil prices have nosedived, following the announcement that the United States (US) and Iran have reached a permanent peace deal.
In India’s opening trading hours, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on June 18 is down 5.5% to near 7,630, the lowest level seen in almost two weeks.
The appeal of currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, improves significantly when oil prices fall like a house of cards.
US-Iran reaches peace deal
On Sunday, both the US and Iran confirmed that they have finalized a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council confirmed Sunday that Tehran had finalized an MoU, saying all military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, would cease “immediately and permanently”, CNBC reported.
US President Donald Trump also said in a post on Truth Social, “I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade.”
Meanwhile, Pakistan Prime Minister (PM) Shehbaz Sharif has stated in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the finalized MoU between the US and Iran will be signed on June 19 in Switzerland.
FIIs selling pressure cool down
Although Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers in all trading days so far in June, a slowdown in the pace of selling pressure is observed in the last two trading days. So far this month, FIIs have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 46,430.42 crore, an average selling of Rs. 4,643 crore in 10 trading days. In the last two trading days, the average selling by overseas investors was Rs. 1,534.63 crore.
India’s WPI Inflation data awaited
On the domestic front, investors await India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Inflation data for May, which will be published at 12:00 PM IST (06:30 GMT). Inflation at the wholesale level is expected to arrive higher at 9.1% from 8.3% in April.
Theoretically, higher inflation at the factory level boosts expectations for the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) interest rate hikes in the near-term. However, the impact is expected to be limited as oil prices have started declining, a scenario that would anchor inflation expectations.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR slides to near 94.60
USD/INR tumbles to near 94.60 in the opening trade. The near-term bias of the pair turns bearish as it extends distance with the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 95.33, on the downside.
The pair’s slide away from that dynamic barrier keeps the short-term trend under pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 42 leans lower, suggesting sellers retain control despite not yet reaching oversold territory.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at 95.33, where a sustained break higher would be needed to ease the current downside pressure and open the way for a deeper corrective bounce towards 96.00. Looking down, the pair could slide to the May 7 low at 94.03 if it drops below the May 29 low at 94.46.
Euro climbs above 1.1600 on US–Iran peace breakthrough
- EUR/USD edges higher to around 1.1610 in Monday’s early European session.
- The US and Iran announced a framework deal for peace.
- ECB’s Nagel said the central bank is ready to hike again in July if necessary.
The EUR/USD pair gains traction to near 1.1610 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The reports that the US and Iran have reached a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz improved risk sentiment, supporting the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD). The US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday.
Washington and Tehran have announced a framework deal for peace, which will be signed in Switzerland on Friday. US President Donald Trump said the US is lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen after the agreement is signed.
The Fed is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% at its upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday. Traders will closely monitor the press conference and take more cues about how new Fed chair Kevin Warsh will lead the US central bank into its next era. Any hawkish remarks from Fed officials could lift the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair.
Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked its key interest rates, saying “the war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures.” This marks the first rate increase since September 2023, after seven consecutive meetings where interest rates were kept on hold.
ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said on Friday that the central bank is prepared to raise interest rates for a second straight meeting in July, if the shock from the war in the Middle East requires it.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: US-Iran reaches deal supports advance beyond 20-day EMA
- GBP/USD jumps to near 1.3460 as the market sentiment turns favorable for riskier assets.
- The finalization of an MoU between the US and Iran has improved the market mood.
- The Fed and BoE are scheduled to announce their monetary policies on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
The GBP/USD pair trades 0.35% higher to near 1.3460 during the late Asian trading session on Monday. The Cable extends its week-long advance as market sentiment improves further, following the announcement that the United States (US) and Iran have reached a deal.
At press time, S&P 500 futures are up over 1% and Asian stock markets are exhibiting a broad rally, reflecting a strong risk appetite of investors. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.4% lower at near 99.40.
Pakistan Prime Minister (PM) Shehbaz Sharif has stated in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the finalized memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran will be signed on June 19 in Switzerland.
Meanwhile, investors brace for a volatile week, especially for the British Pound (GBP), as an array of United Kingdom (UK) data, including the labor market report for three months ending in April and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, along with the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement, will be key events to watch out.
In the US, investors will focus on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy, which will be announced on Wednesday.
GBP/USD technical analysis
GBP/USD trades sharply higher at around 1.3460 as of writing. The near-term bias has turned mildly bullish as it returns above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 1.3425.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 53 hovers just above the midline, hinting at steady, rather than aggressive, upside momentum while the pair consolidates within this supported backdrop.
On the topside, the primary hurdle is the May 26 high at around 1.3500, followed by the descending resistance trend line, with its break price near 1.3580. On the downside, initial demand would be seen around the 20-EMA at 1.3425, while the upward trend-line support around 1.3327 would remain a key support zone.
