USD

• AUD/USD fell to a two-month low of 0.6877 on Friday.
• Rising oil prices weighed on sentiment amid US–Iran peace uncertainty.
• Trump said Washington would pause attacks on Iran’s energy sector for 10 days, while Tehran denied any request.

AUD/USD extends its losing streak for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 0.6880 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair recorded a two-month low of 0.6877, pressured by weakness in the Australian Dollar (AUD) as rising oil prices weigh on sentiment amid uncertainty surrounding United States (US)–Iran peace talks.

US President Donald Trump said earlier that Washington would pause attacks on Iran’s energy sector for 10 days, extending the previous April 6 deadline to allow room for negotiations. Trump suggested the decision followed a request from Iran. However, the Wall Street Journal reported that mediators say Iran denies making such a request, underscoring the fragility of the diplomatic process and the low likelihood of a near-term ceasefire.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon is considering plans to deploy up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East. Defence officials noted that the option is intended to enhance strategic flexibility, enabling rapid escalation if talks break down while maintaining a credible deterrent in the region.

On the monetary policy front, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Christopher Kent warned on Thursday that policymakers may need to act to contain inflation as energy prices rise. Kent added that the board remains focused on achieving low, stable inflation and full employment, which could push up short-run neutral rates and necessitate tighter policy.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Stephen Miran said on Thursday that reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet would support more effective interest rate policy. Miran outlined a potential path to shrink holdings by $1 trillion to $2 trillion, noting that a smaller balance sheet would give the Fed greater flexibility in future crises, while a larger one risks distorting markets.

US data offered little fresh direction, with Initial Jobless Claims coming in exactly as expected at 210K. Attention now turns to Friday’s University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations.

• AUD/USD trades around 0.6920, holding near its lowest level since early February.
• The US Dollar is supported by safe-haven demand and rising US Treasury yields.
• Markets largely ignore the RBA’s hawkish tone, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

AUD/USD trades around 0.6920 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.35% on the day, and remains close to its monthly lows amid a bearish consolidation phase. The pair struggles to stage any meaningful rebound as the US Dollar (USD) continues to draw solid support.

Market sentiment remains fragile despite conciliatory remarks from US President Donald Trump, as Iran has rejected any prospect of negotiations and dismissed a ceasefire proposal. Persistent tensions in the Middle East, combined with additional US troop deployments, are fueling fears of further escalation. In this context, the US Dollar benefits from its safe-haven status, weighing on the Australian Dollar (AUD).

At the same time, the energy situation is adding to global inflationary pressures. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is pushing Oil prices higher, reinforcing expectations that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed), will maintain a hawkish stance. This dynamic is driving US Treasury yields higher, further supporting the Greenback.

On the domestic front, comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Christopher Kent failed to provide support to the currency. Although he highlighted inflation risks linked to rising energy prices and stressed the need to maintain restrictive monetary conditions, the market reaction remained muted. This lack of traction reflects growing concerns about the domestic economic outlook.

According to economists at Commerzbank, Australia is facing a stagflation dilemma, with slowing growth and energy-driven inflation pressures. They note that consumer confidence has dropped sharply while Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators have slipped into contraction territory, complicating the central bank’s policy path. Markets still price in around a 54% chance of a rate hike in May, according to the economists.

Over the longer term, Rabobank maintains a more constructive view. The bank argues that Australia’s status as a net energy exporter could support its terms of trade in the current environment, potentially allowing AUD/USD to return to the 0.71 area over a three- to six-month horizon, and to 0.72 over twelve months.

In the near term, however, the combination of a resilient US Dollar driven by safe-haven flows, elevated US yields, and a lack of supportive domestic catalysts suggests that the bearish bias for the pair is likely to persist.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).